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1.
海洋环境是影响印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)资源量的重要原因之一。本文根据1960-2002年印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼亲体-补充量数据,基于以0~40m海水垂直平均温度(Verticalaverage sea temperature,VAST)为代表的环境因子对Ricker式亲体补充量模型进行了优化。分析表明,印度洋4月0~5°N、80°E~85°E,5月、6月0~5°N、45°E~50°E,7月、8月5°N-10°N、90°E-95°E,12月5°N-10°N、70°E-75°E等海域的VAST对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的补充量影响最为显著,加入这些VAST环境因子的Ricker模型,其AIC(Akaike information criterion)值明显降低,拟合效果得到明显提高,这表明水温等环境因子对黄鳍金枪鱼的种群补偿过程产生了干扰。 相似文献
2.
水温是影响太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群生长、繁殖、补充的重要因素之一。根据2004–2015年太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群渔业数据和其栖息地环境数据，包括1月产卵场(28°～35°N，125°～130°E)和9月索饵场(31°～38°N，128°～132°E)海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature，SST)，建立了基于SST因子的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群体的剩余产量模型，分析SST对太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群资源量的影响，对该模型的各项指标进行验证，发现该模型的预测精度较高。结果表明:太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群当年的资源量及渔获量主要受索饵场SST影响，而产卵场SST对其当年渔获量影响不显著。由此建议在今后对产卵场SST因子是否对次年的渔获量及资源量产生影响进行研究，同时渔业管理部门也应根据每年海洋环境状况确定其最大可持续产量，并实时调整管理方案。 相似文献
3.
叉长频数数据误差对东海中部鲐鱼资源评估结果的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《海洋湖沼通报》2015,(4)
以2009年至2010年在东海中部采集的鲐鱼(Scomber japonicus)样本叉长数据为基础,结合历史数据,开展叉长数据误差对资源评估结果影响的研究。评估考虑2种情况:1)使用完整采样数据和历史数据建立Von Bertalanffy生长方程,并将鲐鱼的叉长转换为年龄。其生长参数为:K=0.49,L∞=404.6,t0=-0.9;2)删除部分大个体鲐鱼,使用剩余叉长数据建立有误差的Von Bertalanffy生长方程,同样将叉长转换为年龄。其生长参数为:K=0.4,L∞=372.5,t0=-0.34。根据以上2个转换结果,基于2006年至2012年鲐鱼产量和捕捞努力量等数据,分别进行资源评估。2组数据得出的剩余产量曲线基本吻合,最大可持续产量(MSY)和捕捞努力量(EMSY)分别约为18.8万t和72艘标准机轮围网渔船。而亲体补充量曲线则相去甚远,含有误差的年龄分组得出的亲体量范围在3000×106到5000×106之间,呈现出亲体量过高,需要增加捕捞努力量来提高补充量的状态,这与现实情况的400×106到500×106不相符。含误差的分组预测出的近几十年亲体量和渔获量是大幅度周期性剧烈变化的,生物量将在1年内达到高峰值约135.5万t,而随后2年内降至约40万t,之后又将在2年内升至高峰值,以此周期循环。亲体量的高峰值与低谷值与渔获量十分接近,渔获量的高峰值与低谷值维持在约60万t和15万t左右。与无误差分组得出的生物量将在6年内减少至约32.3万t,随后保持稳定,亲体量与年渔获量分别将稳定在15.8万t和10.5万t的评估结果相比存在很大差异。 相似文献
4.
5.
应用VPA方法概算黄海鲱鱼的渔捞死亡和资源量 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文应用VPA方法概算黄海鲱鱼1967-1984年各年龄组渔捞死亡、资源数量和实际产卵的亲体数量,结果表明:(1)与太平洋白令海鲱和大西洋北海鲱相比,黄海鲱渔捞死亡高、世代渔捞寿命短;(2)由于世代数量波动剧烈以及捕捞强度过大,资源数量波动幅度很大,并直接影响渔获量;(3)1982年以来出现明显的补充型过度捕捞,实际产卵的亲体数量已下降到正常水平之下.因此,控制渔捞死亡,减少对产卵亲体的捕捞,仍是当前黄海鲱渔业管理中需要认真考虑的问题. 误差分析表明,自然死亡M值的估计精度是提高VPA方法计算精度的关键,文内对此提出相应的建议. 相似文献
6.
《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2021,(11)
中国近海大多数渔业都属于数据有限渔业,用对数据要求较高的复杂模型无法对这些渔业资源做出有效评估,因此用数据有限评估模型评估渔业资源的研究具有重要意义。本文使用经典剩余产量模型(CEDA和ASPIC)和两种新型有限数据评估模型(贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型(BSM)和蒙特卡洛MSY估算模型(CMSY)),评估了黄渤海鳀鱼(Engraulis japonicus)、东海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)和南海金线鱼(Nemipterus virgatus)这三种重要渔业资源的生物学参考点和资源现状。研究表明:黄渤海鳀鱼MSY估计值为80×10~4～83×10~4 t,生物学参考点F/F_(MSY)估计值小于1.0而B/B_(MSY)略小于1.0,表明这种渔业捕捞强度适中但资源尚未得到完全恢复。东海带鱼MSY估计值为58×10~4～64×10~4 t,F/F_(MSY)估计值大于1.0而B/B_(MSY)估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。南海金线鱼MSY为30×10~4～32×10~4 t,F/F_(MSY)估计值大于1.0而B/B_(MSY)估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。以上4种模型均可适用于中国近海数据有限的渔业资源,但两种经典剩余产量模型对三种渔业数据的拟合不够稳定(相关系数R~2波动较大),因此取BSM和CMSY模型的评估结果作为重要参考,但这两种有限数据评估模型的拟合效果尚需进行深入研究。 相似文献
7.
根据已开发鱼类种群的自然死亡率（M）在鱼类资源评估中的重要作用,讨论了1种应用实际种群分析（VPA）（亦即世代分析方法）估算鱼类自然死亡率的方法.文中假设了捕捞努力量（E）已知和未知2种情况,并同时求出了其他种群参数,如可捕系数,补充量等.在蒙特卡罗模拟分析中,假设了4种模拟渔业（管理良好的渔业,掠夺式渔业,恢复性渔业和稳定性渔业）对该方法进行了验证.并将von-Bertalanffy生长方程（VBGF）引入VPA模型来估算鱼类的自然死亡率.当CV等于20%时,在4种模拟渔业中鱼类各龄自然死亡率（Ma）的EP均小于10%.在已知单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据时,计算北大西洋长鳍金枪鱼（Thunnus alalunga）的M等于0.119,这个结果比先前假定的值（0.3）小,但考虑到该鱼种所承受的高的捕捞压力作者认为该估计值是合理的. 相似文献
8.
应用Catch-MSY模型评估印度洋蓝枪鱼资源 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Catch-MSY模型可仅依靠渔获量数据进行渔业资源评估，在数据缺乏状况下能暂时替代标准资源评估模型。本研究以印度洋蓝枪鱼(Makaira nigricans)为例，根据有、无信息的内禀增长率r和环境容纳量K的先验分布，设立15组情景进行模型灵敏度分析、资源评估和预测。结果表明，参数r和K呈强烈的负相关，而最大可持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield，MSY)与参数r呈正相关；数据时间序列长度对评估结果影响有限，而模型对起止年渔获量较为敏感。资源状况评估表明，印度洋蓝枪鱼资源生物量状况良好，即B2015/BMSY大于1；而开发状况除其中两种情景外，均为过度捕捞，即F2015/FMSY大于1。资源预测表明，为使未来10年内B/BMSY>1的概率超过50%，需将渔获量缩减至当前渔获量的90%(13.86 kt)；考虑到该模型在数据缺乏状况下会更加保守，若将当前渔获量的100%～110%(15.40～16.94 kt)设为管理目标，则未来5年内B/BMSY >1的概率超过50%。 相似文献
9.
三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)是中国东海北部海域重要的经济蟹类,对三疣梭子蟹资源开展评估是其可持续利用的基础。本文运用基于贝叶斯方法的Schaefer剩余产量模型,对东海北部海域的三疣梭子蟹资源进行评估,确定了当前三疣梭子蟹资源的开发利用状态,估算了在不同收获率水平下未来10年三疣梭子蟹的生物量和年总可捕捞量,分析了管理策略实施后三疣梭子蟹资源崩溃的风险。研究显示,在基准方案和敏感性分析方案下模型参数预测值以及生物学参考点估计值比较相近。使用两种方案估算得到的最大可持续产量(MSY)均约为24×104 t, MSY对应的生物量BMSY均约为252×104 t。在基准方案下,MSY对应的捕捞死亡系数FMSY为0.096;在敏感性分析方案下,MSY对应的捕捞死系数FMSY为0.097。在2001—2020年间,捕捞死亡系数均低于FMSY,且生物量基本在BMSY水平之上,表明近年来三疣梭子蟹未出现过度捕捞的情... 相似文献
10.
基于贴现率的西北太平洋柔鱼生物经济模型及管理策略分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
西北太平洋柔鱼是我国远洋渔业重要的捕捞对象,综合考虑生物、经济和社会效益来科学制定渔业管理目标是确保柔鱼资源可持续利用的重要研究内容。本文根据1996—2011年我国鱿钓船在西北太平洋海域捕捞的柔鱼渔获量和作业成本,结合贴现率和渔获物价格等经济数据,构建基于贴现率的西北太平洋柔鱼生物经济模型。结果表明,西北太平洋柔鱼资源状况处于良好状态,并未遭受过度捕捞;当贴现率α在0.3~0.5之间,当前利益占长远利益的20%~30%(D=0.2~0.3),且渔获物价格在9 195~12 500元/t之间时,该海域的柔鱼资源种群资源量相对稳定,能达到最优种群数量水平,可保证柔鱼渔获量始终处在MSY之下,确保柔鱼资源的可持续利用。 相似文献
11.
鱼类自然死亡率的估算及其影响因子的探讨 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
为探讨鱼类自然死亡率参数,文中讨论了1种通过资源量和渔获量数据估算鱼类自然死亡率(M)的方法。蒙特卡罗模拟分析显示当资源量的白色噪音,即变异系数(CV)水平小于大约10％时自然死亡率的估计值基本上是准确的;捕捞死亡率的变化对自然死亡率估计的影响不大。文中构造了长寿命自然死亡率小和短寿命自然死亡率大的2个鱼类种群,模拟结果表明这种方法更适用于寿命短而自然死亡率大的种群。另外该方法在黄海鲲鱼(Engraulis japonicus)渔业数据上的应用同样得到了良好的结果。 相似文献
12.
The majority of fishery stocks in the world are data limited, which limits formal stock assessments. Identifying the impacts of input data on stock assessment is critical for improving stock assessment and developing precautionary management strategies. We compare catch advice obtained from applications of various datalimited methods(DLMs) with forecasted catch advice from existing data-rich stock assessment models for the Indian Ocean bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus). Our goal was to evaluate the co... 相似文献
13.
《Marine Policy》2014
Korea's coastal and offshore fisheries have experienced reduction in their catch in the early 2000. The amount of catch from coastal and offshore fisheries dropped from 1.7 million tons in 1986 to 1 million tons in 2004. To address such catch reduction, fish stock enhancement programs have been constantly developed and implemented. However, as fish stocks have been estimated to decrease since 2000 in spite of various management measures, the Korean Government genuinely acknowledges the necessity to enhance fisheries productivity through the recovery of depleted fish stocks. Based on such acknowledgement, a fish stock rebuilding plan (FSRP) combined with conventional fish stock enhancement programs was established in 2005. For stocks which have shown drastic decrease, a FSRP was set up and promoted. So far, 10 FSRPs have been established and operated, and plan is being made to expand them to 20 species by 2012. The result of pilot projects shows that stocks have been increasing after the introduction of FSRPs. For instance, the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of sandfish in the East Sea has increased from 0.44 in 2005 to 0.78 in 2011. Consequently, fishing income has increased by 15%. The key lessons learned during the implementation of FSRP are: the causes for the decrease of stock vary and are complicated and it is necessary to adjust and eliminate some conventional policies that could have unforeseen negative impacts on fish stocks. The FSRP-based fisheries management policy in Korea carries great significance, for it has changed the focus of policy from simply maintaining the status quo to stock recovery and it allows relevant stakeholders to get actively involved in the procedures of establishing and promoting the plan, leading to effective implementation of the plan. The current FSRP is operated with species, but if it can be gradually expanded to encompass the whole ecosystem, it will greatly contribute to more effective management and fish stock recovery for all species in offshore and coastal waters surrounding Korea. 相似文献
14.
基于贝叶斯状态空间产量模型的大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)是全球远洋渔业的重要目标鱼种,要实现有效的管理,对其进行科学的资源评估是必不可少的。本文以大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼为研究对象,根据国际大西洋金枪鱼养护委员会的渔获量和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据,使用贝叶斯状态空间模型进行资源评估,并探讨不同剩余产量函数和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据对评估的影响。结果表明,使用美国、委内瑞拉、日本和中国台北4个船队的单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据及Fox剩余产量函数时模型拟合效果最佳。关键参数环境容纳量和内禀增长率的估计中值和95%置信区间分别为178 (140,229)×104 t和0.210(0.159,0.274);当前资源量为72.5×104 t,最大可持续产量为13.7×104 t时,种群既没有遭受资源型过度捕捞,也没有捕捞型过度捕捞发生。敏感性分析表明,当渔获量数据存在误报率(70%、80%、90%、110%、120%和130%)时,生物量的评估结果偏高,而捕捞死亡率的结果偏低,但种群均处于健康状态;预测分析显示,当总允许可捕量设为11×104 t时,资源在2024年前仍基本保持健康状态。本研究与国际大西洋金枪鱼养护委员会现有的评估结果基本一致,且模型较稳健,可以为管理决策提供建议。根据模型结果,建议总允许可捕量为11×104 t或更低,以使资源达到可持续开发水平。 相似文献
15.
The shared Torres Strait rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) fishery provides important income for commercial and traditional fishers in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The lobster stock is first fished in Torres Strait by divers from both countries and then becomes vulnerable to Australian prawn trawlers, followed by Papua New Guinea trawlers during its annual breeding migration. Lobster catch sharing arrangements are governed by the Torres Strait Treaty ratified in 1985, but the sequential trawling of breeding lobsters has been controlled by bilateral agreements. A trawl ban was implemented in 1984 in both countries to conserve the breeding stock, but some trawling has been conducted in the Gulf of Papua since then and there is renewed interest in Papua New Guinea to resume trawling. To evaluate the impact of trawling migratory breeding lobsters on the lobster fishery, a model that combines a cohort depletion model with a stock recruitment relationship was developed in this study. The model showed that when the fishery is fully or over‐exploited by the dive fishery, trawling breeding lobsters would reduce both the spawning stock and the total catch of the fishery. The reduction in catch would increase with increasing fishing mortality. If trawling occurred on the Papua New Guinea side only, a redistribution of catch between Australia and Papua New Guinea would result in a small gain in catch for Papua New Guinea at the expense of the Australian dive fishery. But when fishing mortality reaches a certain level, any trawling in any country will incur catch loss to both countries. For the long‐term sustainability and maximum production of the fishery, regulations should be implemented in both countries under a co‐management scheme of a shared fish stock. 相似文献
16.
以没有放流幼虾的1987年的河口区仔虾相对数量和8月份幼虾数量比值(109)为系数(a),以ni=axi式(ni是i年自然补充量,x_i是i年河口区仔虾相对数量),估算胶州湾中国对虾有关年份自然补量。将各年8月份幼虾数量(Ni)扣除自然补充量后,再按捕捞系数(k)为0.75,以Ci=(Ni—ni)k/R式估算放流虾的回捕量和回捕率(C)。结果表明,1985,1986和1988—1990年回捕率分别为16.05,11.23,8.49,13.69和17.40％。对虾放流增殖效果显著。 相似文献
17.
Habitat suitability index of Chub mackerel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Scomber japonicus</Emphasis>) from July to September in the East China Sea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The habitat quality of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea has been a subject of concern in the last 10 years due to large fluctuations in annual catches of
this stock. For example, the Chinese light-purse seine fishery recorded 84000 tons in 1999 compared to 17000 tons in 2006.
The fluctuations have been attributed to variability in habitat quality. The habitat suitability Index (HSI) has been widely
used to describe fish habitat quality and in fishing ground forecasting. In this paper we use catch data and satellite derived
environmental variables to determine habitat suitability indices for Chub mackerel during July to September in the East China
Sea. More than 90% of the total catch was found to come from the areas with sea surface temperature of 28.0°–29.4°C, sea surface
salinity of 33.6–34.2 psu, chlorophyll-a concentration of 0.15–0.50 mg/m3 and sea surface height anomaly of −0.1–1.1 m. Of the four conventional models of HSI, the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) was
found to be most suitable according to Akaike Information Criterion analysis. Based on the estimation of AMM in 2004, the
monthly HSIs in the waters of 123°–125°E and 27°30′–28°00′ N were more than 0.6 during July to September, which coincides
with the catch distribution in the same time period. This implies that AMM can yield a reliable prediction of the Chub mackerel’s
habitat in the East China Sea. 相似文献
18.
The western rock lobster fishery is one of the most valuable single‐species fisheries in Australia, valued at AU$300 million per year. The impact of environmental factors such as lunar cycle and swell on the daily catch rate of the western rock lobster (Panulirus cynus) is of particular interest in the stock assessment and management of the fishery. The variation in daily catch rates was examined for two periods (migrating period November‐January, non‐migrating period February‐June), at different depths in three management zones for three categories of lobster (undersize, legal size, and setose). Regression and transfer function models for relationships between catch rates and environmental data were considered and compared. The lunar cycle has a significant impact on the daily catch rates with c. 30% lower catch rate during the full moon and c. 20% higher catches near the new moon. This impact occurs mainly during the non‐migrating period both in deep water (40–100 m) and shallow water (<40 m). The swell on the day before fishing was also shown to be significantly related to the catch rate with an increase of c. 10–15% for an increase in swell from light to moderate or moderate to high. These environmental factors can be used to standardise catch rates to provide an improved abundance index for stock assessment. Also, management closures are being considered for 3–5 days over the low catch rate, full moon period to reduce fishing costs and lower fishing effort. 相似文献
19.
F Salmerón JC Báez D Macías L Fernandez-Peralta A Ramos 《African Journal of Marine Science》2015,37(3):405-409
Fish stocks associated with seamounts may be particularly susceptible to overexploitation. From January to July 2001, the Spanish Oceanographic Institute (IEO) conducted an experimental fishing survey entitled ‘Palguinea-2001’ on the seamounts of the Sierra Leone Rise. Beryx splendens (commonly called alfonsino) is the main commercial demersal fish associated with this area. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a demersal longline fishery targeting B. splendens on the previously unexploited small Machucambo Seamount over a short time-scale, and also to consider trends in pooled catch rate at another four seamounts. During 110 fishing days at Machucambo, a total catch of 207 tonnes of B. splendens was taken with a fishing effort of 1 309 070 hooks. A spectral analysis and red-noise spectra procedure (REDFIT) algorithm was used to identify the red-noise spectrum from the gaps in the observed time-series of catch per unit effort by weight. Our results show the potential impact of longline fishing pressure on an unexploited ecosystem – after approximately 50 fishing days, the stock appeared to decline substantially, as reflected by a marked drop in catch per unit effort. The apparent rapid decline of the stock might be related to the small size and the virgin state of the Sierra Leone seamounts. The results could be extrapolated to similar small seamounts elsewhere. 相似文献
20.
《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(1):67-84
The northern Benguela stock of sardine Sardinops sagax used to be considered one of the major clupeoid stocks of the world; it supported an average annual catch of >700 000 tons throughout the 1960s. The stock has been in a depressed state for more than two decades, as demonstrated by annual catches that averaged around 50 000 tons between 1978 and 1989 and only slightly more in the 1990s. It has experienced fluctuations in abundance of several orders of magnitude during the most recent decade. Population size increased until 1992, when the acoustic estimate of biomass was about 750 000 tons. Catches increased accordingly, averaging 100 000 tons between 1992 and 1995, but from 1992 to 1996 the stock was in decline and the lowest annual catch in the history of the fishery was taken in 1996. Although there was a small increase during the last three years of the decade, the stock remains seriously depleted. Survey-based recruitment indices suggest that the changes in the 1990s were initiated by fluctuations in recruitment, but the decline was almost certainly exacerbated by continued fishing. Poor recruitment and decreasing catch rates between 1993 and 1996 in a number of other key resources suggest that system-wide environmental changes were an important factor in the decline of the sardine stock at that time. Anomalous oceanographic conditions, such as extensive hypoxic shelf waters in 1993/94 and a Benguela Niño in 1995, support this conclusion. 相似文献