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1.
Abstract

The glaciers in the Nepalese Himalayas are retreating due to rising temperatures. Lack of data and information on Nepal’s cryosphere has impeded scientific studies and field investigations in the Nepalese Himalayas. Therefore, IRD France and Ev-K2 CNR Italy have conducted the PAPRIKA (CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources and society adaptation in Nepal) project in Nepal with the financial support of the French and Italian scientific agencies. This project aims to address the current and future evolution of the cryosphere in response to overall environmental changes in South Asia, and its consequences for water resources in Nepal. Thus, two hydrological models, the GR4J lumped precipitation–runoff model and the snowmelt runoff model (SRM), were used in the Dudh Koshi basin. The GR4J model has been successfully applied in different parts of Europe. To obtain better results in such a harsh and rugged topography, modifications needed to be made, particularly in the snow module. The runoff pattern is analysed herein both for past years and, in a sensitivity analysis, for possible future climatic conditions (i.e. precipitation and temperature) using the SRM and GR4J modelling approaches. The results reveal a significant contribution of snow- and glacier-melt to runoff, and the SRM model shows better performance in Nepalese catchments than the GR4J model.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten  相似文献   

2.
This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative (AWCI). The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical information, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM) that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assessment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected basins at the data integration and analysis system of Japan (DIAS) and demonstration projects were carried out showing potential of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

The growing availability of smart devices with advanced sensors has increased the opportunities for citizen science applications for environmental monitoring. Accurate and widespread monitoring of river stage is vital for modeling water resources. Reliable data points are required for model calibration and validation in forecast studies. While current embedded monitoring systems provide accurate measurements, the cost to replicate these systems on a large domain is prohibitively expensive, limiting the quantity of data available. This project describes a new method to accurately measure river levels using smartphone sensors. Pictures of the same point on the river’s surface are taken to perform calculations based on the GPS location and spatial orientation of the smartphone. The proposed implementation is significantly more accessible than existing water measuring systems while offering similar accuracy. A case study is performed to evaluate the accuracy and sensitivity of the measurements to changes in distance.  相似文献   

4.
Surface runoff is a major water resource component and its spatial and temporal variations significantly impact on regional socio-economic development. In this study, changes to surface runoff in Jiangsu Province, China, were simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model for the period 2011–2040, using input data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models and three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In general, annual mean precipitation under the five models and three scenarios showed a fluctuating upward trend, while annual mean temperatures were projected to increase by up to 1.34 °C, as compared with the reference period (1970–1999). Monthly mean runoff depths were generally predicted to increase, with the most significant increases occurring in December. Increasing runoff depths were highest under the RCP8.5 emission scenario and lowest under RCP4.5. The results of this study provide an important reference for policymakers planning for the future water resources in Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, we conducted a case study with the VIC model and it showed high consistency with gauges and provides a new reference for the studies of other plain regions.  相似文献   

5.
Groundwater models developed for specific sites generally become obsolete within a few years due to changes in: (1) modeling technology; (2) site/project personnel; (3) project funding; and (4) modeling objectives. Consequently, new models are sometimes developed for the same sites using the latest technology and data, but without potential knowledge gained from the prior models. When it occurs, this practice is particularly problematic because, although technology, data, and observed conditions change, development of the new numerical model may not consider the conceptual model's underpinnings. As a contrary situation, we present the unique case of a numerical flow and trichloroethylene (TCE) transport model that was first developed in 1993 and since revised and updated annually by the same personnel. The updates are prompted by an increase in the amount of data, exposure to a wider range of hydrologic conditions over increasingly longer timeframes, technological advances, evolving modeling objectives, and revised modeling methodologies. The history of updates shows smooth, incremental changes in the conceptual model and modeled aquifer parameters that result from both increase and decrease in complexity. Myriad modeling objectives have included demonstrating the ineffectiveness of a groundwater extraction/injection system, evaluating potential TCE degradation, locating new monitoring points, and predicting likelihood of exceedance of groundwater standards. The application emphasizes an original tenet of successful groundwater modeling: iterative adjustment of the conceptual model based on observations of actual vs. model response.  相似文献   

6.
The ecological situation of the Tarim River basin in China seriously declined since the early 1950s, mainly due to a strong increase in water abstraction for irrigation purposes. To restore the ecological system and support sustainable development of the Tarim River basin region in China, more hydrological studies are demanded to properly understand the processes of the watershed and efficiently manage the water resources. Such studies are, however, complicated due to the limited data availability, especially in the mountainous headwater regions of the Tarim River basin. This study investigated the usefulness of remote sensing (RS) data to overcome that lack of data in the spatially distributed hydrological modelling of the basin. Complementary to the conventional station‐based (SB) data, the RS products that are directly used in this study include precipitation, evapotranspiration and leaf area index. They are derived from raw image data of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The MODIS land surface temperature was used to calculate the atmospheric temperature lapse rate to describe the temperature dependency on topographical variations. Moreover, MODIS‐based snow cover images were used to obtain model initial conditions and as validation reference for the snow model component. Comparison of model results based on RS input versus conventional SB input exhibited similar results in terms of high and low river runoff extremes, cumulative runoff volumes in both runoff and snow melting seasons and spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. During summer time, when the snow cover shrinks in the permanent glacier region, it was found that the model resolution influences the model results dramatically, hence, showing the importance of detailed (RS based) spatially distributed input data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Sediment budgeting concepts serve as quantification tools to decipher the erosion and accumulation processes within a catchment and help to understand these relocation processes through time. While sediment budgets are widely used in geomorphological catchment-based studies, such quantification approaches are rarely applied in geoarchaeological studies. The case of Charlemagne's summit canal (also known as Fossa Carolina) and its erosional collapse provides an example for which we can use this geomorphological concept and understand the abandonment of the Carolingian construction site. The Fossa Carolina is one of the largest hydro-engineering projects in Medieval Europe. It is situated in Southern Franconia (48.9876°N, 10.9267°E; Bavaria, southern Germany) between the Altmühl and Swabian Rezat rivers. It should have bridged the Central European watershed and connected the Rhine–Main and Danube river systems. According to our dendrochronological analyses and historical sources, the excavation and construction of the Carolingian canal took place in AD 792 and 793. Contemporary written sources describe an intense backfill of excavated sediment in autumn AD 793. This short-term erosion event has been proposed as the principal reason for the collapse and abandonment of the hydro-engineering project. We use subsurface data (drillings, archaeological excavations, and direct-push sensing) and geospatial data (a LiDAR digital terrain model (DTM), a pre-modern DTM, and a 3D model of the Fossa Carolina] for the identification and sediment budgeting of the backfills. Dendrochronological findings and radiocarbon ages of macro remains within the backfills give clear evidence for the erosional collapse of the canal project during or directly after the construction period. Moreover, our quantification approach allows the detection of the major sedimentary collapse zone. The exceedance of the manpower tipping point may have caused the abandonment of the entire construction site. The spatial distribution of the dendrochronological results indicates a north–south direction of the early medieval construction progress. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

Vertical surface properties of the landscape were measured using a laser altimeter mounted in a small twin-engine aeroplane. The laser altimeter makes 4000 measurements per second with a vertical recording precision of 0.05 m for a single measurement. These airborne laser measurements were analysed to provide information on topography, vegetation canopy and stream and gully cross-sections. Laser altimeter data were used to measure small (less than 0.20 m deep) and large gullies and stream cross-sections. Vegetation canopy heights, cover, structure and distribution were determined in studies in Texas and Arizona. Laser measurements of vegetation cover and height were significantly correlated with ground measurements made with line-intercept methods. While conventional ground-based techniques may be used to make all these measurements, airborne laser altimeter techniques allow the data to be collected in a quick and efficient way over large and inaccessible areas. The airborne laser altimeter data can also help quantify various land surface parameters needed for natural resource and landscape management or required by hydrological simulation models. Measurements of landscape properties over large areas provide a better understanding of landscape functions and can lead to the development of better management plans to conserve and improve the productivity of natural resources.  相似文献   

9.
Models of the production of cosmogenic nuclides typically incorporate an adjustable production rate parameter that is scaled for variations in production with latitude and altitude. In practice, this production rate parameter is set by calibration of the model using cosmogenic nuclide data from sites with independent age constraints. In this paper, we describe a calibration procedure developed during the Cosmic-Ray Produced Nuclide Systematics on Earth (CRONUS-Earth) project and its application to an extensive data set that included both new CRONUS-Earth samples and samples from previously published studies. We considered seven frameworks for elevation and latitude scaling and five commonly used cosmogenic nuclides, 3He, 10Be, 14C, 26Al, and 36Cl. In general, the results show that the calibrated production rates fail statistical tests of goodness-of-fit. One conclusion from the calibration results is that two newly developed scaling frameworks and the widely used Lal scaling framework provide qualitatively similar fits to the data, while neutron-monitor based scaling frameworks have much poorer fit to the data. To further test the fitted models, we computed site ages for a number of secondary sites not included in the primary calibration data set. The root-mean-square percent differences between the median computed ages for these secondary sites and independent ages range from 7.1% to 27.1%, differences that are much larger than the typical uncertainties in the site ages. The results indicate that there are substantial unresolved difficulties in modeling cosmogenic nuclide production and the calibration of production rates.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, a multistage simulation-based optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty. The system couples a lumped rainfall-runoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program, where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. Moreover, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin, which is one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China. A variety of policies associated with different water-allocation targets are analyzed. The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal water-allocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection, economic development, and regional sustainability.  相似文献   

11.
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual control or eradication. Disease spread poses a serious threat in animal and plant health and has implications for ecosystem functioning and species extinctions as well as implications in society through food security and potential disease spread in humans. Space–time epidemiology is based on the concept that various characteristics of the pathogenic agents and the environment interact in order to alter the probability of disease occurrence and form temporal or spatial patterns. Epidemiology aims to identify these patterns and factors, to assess the relevant uncertainty sources, and to describe disease in the population. Thus disease spread at the population level differs from the approach traditionally taken by veterinary practitioners that are principally concerned with the health status of the individual. Patterns of disease occurrence provide insights into which factors may be affecting the health of the population, through investigating which individuals are affected, where are these individuals located and when did they become infected. With the rapid development of smart sensors, social networks, as well as digital maps and remotely-sensed imagery spatio-temporal data are more ubiquitous and richer than ever before. The availability of such large datasets (big data) poses great challenges in data analysis. In addition, increased availability of computing power facilitates the use of computationally-intensive methods for the analysis of such data. Thus new methods as well as case studies are needed to understand veterinary and ecological epidemiology. A special issue aimed to address this topic.  相似文献   

12.
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13.
A framework for a seismic risk model for Greater Cairo   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Following the adverse effects caused by the moderate Ms 5.4 event of October 1992, the need to model the risk from earthquakes occurring in or near Cairo was shown to be an essential tool to offset this threat in the future. To provide the necessary elements for a risk model, this paper describes a methodology for developing a ground-shaking model as well as an inventory database for the city. In the first part, a scheme is followed to integrate data on geological structures, seismic sources, seismicity and surface soil conditions to build-up an event-based hazard model. In the second part, a brief review of the history of seismic provisions in Egyptian codes is presented, and a detailed assessment of local maps and information is supplemented by results from street surveys to obtain building stock data and geographical resolutions. On the basis of these studies, the city is divided into a number of census-tracts, or geo-codes, of classified building and soil characteristics, representing a fundamental step towards the development of a full loss model.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
ＡＳＩＭＰＬＩＦＩＥＤＡＰＰＲＯＡＣＨＴＯＭＯＤＥＬＩＮＧ３ＤＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴ－ＬＡＤＥＮＴＵＲＢＵＬＥＮＴＦＬＯＷＳＤｏｎｇｈｕｏＺＨＯＵａｎｄＳａｍＳ．Ｙ．ＷＡＮＧＡｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ａ３－ｄｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｍｏｄｅｌｆｏｒｓｉｍｕｌａｔｉｎｇｓ...  相似文献   

16.
The wind resource offshore is generally larger than at geographically nearby onshore sites, which can offset the higher installation, operation and maintenance costs associated with offshore wind parks. Successful offshore wind energy development relies to some extent on accurate prediction of wind resources, but since installing and operating a meteorological mast in situ is expensive, prospective sites must be carefully evaluated. Accordingly, one can conceptualize the wind resource assessment process as a two-phase activity: (i) an evaluation of wind resources at the regional scale to locate promising wind farm sites and (ii) a site specific evaluation of wind climatology and vertical profiles of wind and atmospheric turbulence, in addition to an assessment of historical and possibly future changes due to climate non-stationarity. Phase (i) of the process can involve use of in situ observations of opportunity derived from ships, lighthouses and buoys in conjunction with model tools and remote sensing products. The reliability of such data sources has been extensively investigated in different national and European projects especially in Northern Europe, and the results are summarized herein. Phase (ii) of the project often still requires in situ observations (which may or may not be supplemented with ground-based remote sensing technologies) and application of tools to provide a climatological context for the resulting measurements. Current methodologies for undertaking these aspects of the resource assessment are reviewed.  相似文献   

17.
One of the costliest natural hazards around the globe is flash floods, resulting from localized intense convective precipitation over short periods of time. Since intense convective rainfall (especially over the continents) is well correlated with lightning activity in these storms, a European Union FP6 FLASH project was realized from 2006 to 2010, focusing on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project, 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms, lightning data were used together with rainfall estimates in order to understand the storms?? development and electrification processes. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the local and synoptic conditions leading to such intense and damaging storms. As part of this project, tools for short-term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long-term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection, were developed and employed. The project also focused on educational outreach through a special Web site http://flashproject.org supplying real-time lightning observations, real-time experimental nowcasts, medium-range weather forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning the public, end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods.  相似文献   

18.
The ultimate goal of reservoir simulation in reservoir surveillance technology is to estimate long-term production forecasting and to plan development and management of petroleum fields. However, maintaining reliable reservoir models which honour available static and dynamic data, involve inherent risks due to the uncertainties in space and time of the distribution of hydrocarbons inside reservoirs. Recent applications have shown that these uncertainties can be reduced by quantitative integration of seismic data into the reservoir modelling workflows to identify which areas and reservoir attributes of the model should be updated. This work aims using seismic data to reduce ambiguity in calibrating reservoir flow simulation model with an uncertain petro-elastic model, proposing a circular workflow of inverted seismic impedance (3D and 4D) and engineering studies, with emphasis on the interface between static and dynamic models. The main contribution is to develop an updating procedure for adjusting reservoir simulation response before using it in the production forecasting and enhance the interpretive capability of reservoir properties. Accordingly, the workflow evaluates consistency of reservoir simulation model and inverted seismic impedance, assisted by production history data, to close the loop between reservoir engineering and seismic domains. The methodology is evaluated in a complex, faulted, sandstone reservoir, the Norne benchmark field, where a significant reservoir behaviour understanding (about the static and dynamic reservoir properties) is obtained towards the quantitative integration of seismic impedance data. This leads to diagnosis of the reservoir flow simulation reliability and generation of an updated simulation model consistent with observed seismic and well production history data, as well as a calibrated petro-elastic model. Furthermore, as Norne Field is a benchmark case, this study can be considered to enrich the discussions over deterministic or probabilistic history matching studies.  相似文献   

19.
Ash clouds are one of the major hazards that result from volcanic eruptions. Once an eruption is reported, volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast the location of the ash cloud. These models require source parameters to describe the ash column for initialization. These parameters include: eruption cloud height and vertical distribution, particle size distribution, and start and end time of the eruption. Further, if downwind concentrations are needed, the eruption mass rate and/or volume of ash need to be known. Upon notification of an eruption, few constraints are typically available on many of these source parameters. Recently, scientists have defined classes of eruption types, each with a set of pre-defined eruption source parameters (ESP). We analyze the August 18, 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak vent at Mount Spurr, Alaska, which is the example case for the Medium Silicic eruption type. We have evaluated the sensitivity of two of the ESP – the grain size distribution (GSD) and the vertical distribution of ash – on the modeled ash cloud. HYSPLIT and Puff VATD models are used to simulate the ash clouds from the different sets of source parameters. We use satellite data, processed through the reverse absorption method, as reference for computing statistics that describe the modeled-to-observed comparison. With the grain size distribution, the three options chosen, (1) an estimated distribution based on past eruption studies, (2) a distribution with finer particles and (3) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration HYSPLIT GSD, have little effect on the modeled ash cloud. For the initial vertical distribution, both linear (uniform concentration throughout the vertical column) and umbrella shapes were chosen. For HYSPLIT, the defined umbrella distribution (no ash below the umbrella), apparently underestimates the lower altitude portions of the ash cloud and as a result has a worse agreement with the satellite detected ash cloud compared to that with the linear vertical distribution for this particular eruption. The Puff model, with a Poisson function to represent the umbrella cloud, gave similar results as for a linear distribution, both having reasonable agreement with the satellite detected cloud. Further sensitivity studies of this eruption, as well as studies using the other source parameters, are needed.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

Remote sensing is the use of electromagnetic energy to measure the physical properties of distant objects. It includes photography and geophysical surveying as well as newer techniques that use other parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. The history of remote sensing begins with photography. The origin of other types of remote sensing can be traced to World War II, with the development of radar, sonar, and thermal infrared detection systems. Since the 1960s, sensors have been designed to operate in virtually all of the electromagnetic spectrum. Today a wide variety of remote sensing instruments are available for use in hydrological studies; satellite data, such as Skylab photographs and Landsat images are particularly suitable for regional problems and studies. Planned future satellites will provide a ground resolution of 10–80 m.

Remote sensing is currently used for hydrological applications in most countries of the world. The range of applications includes groundwater exploration determination of physical water quality, snowfield mapping, flood-inundation delineation, and making inventories of irrigated land. The use of remote sensing commonly results in considerable hydrological information at minimal cost. This information can be used to speed-up the development of water resources, to improve management practices, and to monitor environmental problems.  相似文献   

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