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1.
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning. 相似文献
2.
Seismic hazard assessment of Tehran,Iran with emphasis on near-fault rupture directivity effects 
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下载免费PDF全文 Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB,Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seismic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al.(1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker(2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites. 相似文献
3.
Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong. 相似文献
4.
P. Varga 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(1-2):289-296
We present the basis for a method for estimating the return period of large and medium earthquakes that is independent of current deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The two standard techniques of seismic hazard assessment??probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)??suffer from limited knowledge of seismic prehistory. A further weakness of PSHA is its requirement of homogeneous seismic activity within a seismic zone. Moreover, PSHA and DSHA were developed for seismically active areas and, thus, cannot reliably be used in areas of medium and low activity. In this paper we propose the combined use of geodetic strain rate data and the seismic moment data set determined for past seismic events. This combination represents a new and independent approach to estimation of future seismic activity. Using a modified version of Kostrov??s (Phys Solid Earth 1:23?C40, 1974) equation and the catalogue of seismic moments, the minimum return period of the strongest earthquakes of a source area is estimated. 相似文献
5.
Development of attenuation relation for the near fault ground motion from the characteristic earthquake 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A composite source model has been used to simulate a broadband strong ground motion with an associated fault rupture process. A scenario earthquake fault model has been used to generate 1 000 earthquake events with a magni-tude of Mw8.0. The simulated results show that, for the characteristic event with a strike-slip faulting, the character istics of near fault ground motion is strongly dependent on the rupture directivity. If the distance between the sites and fault was given, the ground motion in the forward direction (Site A) is much larger than that in the backward direction (Site C) and that close to the fault (Site B). The SH waves radiated from the fault, which corresponds to the fault-normal component plays a key role in the ground motion amplification. Corresponding to the sites A, B, and C, the statistical analysis shows that the ratio of their aPG is 2.15:1.5:1 and their standard deviations are about 0.12, 0.11, and 0.13, respectively. If these results are applied in the current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), then, for the lower annual frequency of exceedance of peak ground acceleration, the predicted aPG from the hazard curve could reduce by 30% or more compared with the current PSHA model used in the developing of seismic hazard map in the USA. Therefore, with a consideration of near fault ground motion caused by the rupture directivity, the regression model used in the development of the regional attenuation relation should be modified accordingly. 相似文献
6.
Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Jorge M. Gaspar-Escribano Belén Benito Julián García-Mayordomo 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(2):179-196
Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast
Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount
of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions.
Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions
and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated
specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground
motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra
contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only
the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori).
An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to
the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes
that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period). 相似文献
7.
Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) and the probabilistic approach (PSHA) are compared for the Italian territory. The NDSHA provides values larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, but lower values in low-seismicity areas. These differences suggest the adoption of the flexible, robust and physically sound NDSHA approach to overcome the proven shortcomings of PSHA, thus allowing for a reliable seismic hazard estimation, especially for those areas characterized by a prolonged quiescence, i.e. in tectonically active sites where events of only moderate size have occurred in historical times. 相似文献
8.
Earthquakes damage engineering structures near, relatively to the rupture's size, to the source. In this region, the fault's dynamics affect ground motion propagation differently from site to site, resulting in systematic spatial variability known as directivity. Although a number of researches recommend that records with directivity‐related velocity pulses should be explicitly taken into account when defining design seismic action on structures, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), in its standard version, seems inadequate for the scope. In the study, it is critically reviewed why, from the structural engineering point of view, hazard assessment should account for near‐source effects (i.e., pulse‐like ground motions), and how this can be carried out adjusting PSHA analytically via introduction of specific terms and empirically calibrated models. Disaggregation analysis and design scenarios for near‐source PSHA are also formulated. The analytical procedures are then applied to develop examples of hazard estimates for sites close to strike–slip or dip–slip faults and to address differences with respect to the ordinary case, that is, when pulse‐like effects are not explicitly accounted for. Significant increase of hazard for selected spectral ordinates is found in all investigated cases; increments depend on the fault‐site configuration. Moreover, to address design scenarios for seismic actions on structures, disaggregation results are also discussed, along with limitations of current design spectra to highlight the pulse‐like effects of structural interest. Finally, an attempt to overcome these, by means of disaggregation‐based scenarios specific for the pulse occurrence case, is presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
The use of nonlinear static procedures for performance‐based seismic design (PBSD) and assessment is a well‐established practice, which has found its way into modern codes for quite some time. On the other hand, near‐source (NS) ground motions are receiving increasing attention, because they can carry seismic demand systematically different and larger than that of the so‐called ordinary records. This is due to phenomena such as rupture forward directivity (FD), which can lead to distinct pulses appearing in the velocity time‐history of the ground motion. The framework necessary for taking FD into account in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has recently been established. The objective of the present study is to discuss the extension of nonlinear static procedures, specifically the displacement coefficient method (DCM), with respect to the inelastic demand associated with FD. In this context, a methodology is presented for the implementation of the DCM toward estimating NS seismic demand, by making use of the results of NS‐PSHA and a semi‐empirical equation for NS‐FD inelastic displacement ratio. An illustrative application of the DCM, with explicit inclusion of NS‐pulse‐like effects, is given for a set of typical plane R/C frames designed under Eurocode provisions. Different scenarios are considered in the application and nonlinear dynamic analysis results are obtained and discussed with respect to the static procedure estimates. Conclusions drawn from the results may help to assess the importance of incorporating NS effects in PBSD. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Application of a Monte‐Carlo simulation approach for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for geographically distributed portfolio 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The conventional integral approach is very well established in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). However, Monte‐Carlo (MC) simulations can become an efficient and flexible alternative against conventional PSHA when more complicated factors (e.g. spatial correlation of ground shaking) are involved. This study aims at showing the implementation of MC simulation techniques for computing the annual exceedance rates of dynamic ground‐motion intensity measures (GMIMs) (e.g. peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). We use multi‐scale random field technique to incorporate spatial correlation and near‐fault directivity while generating MC simulations to assess the probabilistic seismic hazard of dynamic GMIMs. Our approach is capable of producing conditional hazard curves as well. We show various examples to illustrate the potential use of the proposed procedures in the hazard and risk assessment of geographically distributed structural systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
12.
Federico Carturan Mariano Angelo Zanini Carlo Pellegrino Claudio Modena 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):795-806
Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have had serious impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 emphasized the importance of preparedness and awareness to reduce social impacts. In addition to that, earthquake damaged businesses dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Generating scenario earthquakes in a proper way is important to suitably assess the risk in bridge networks and social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. Seismic hazard is traditionally assessed by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location it is not suitable for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes can overcome this problem; they represent the actual distribution of ground shaking for a spatially distributed system while being hazard consistent. In this work a methodology to generate scenario earthquakes has been proposed using a novel approach with the aim of being the basic step for investigating possible earthquake consequences in seismic areas and contributing to reduce losses. 相似文献
13.
选择台湾集集地震和美国北岭地震的近断层地震动记录作为输入,考察了近断层地震动破裂向前方向性与滑冲效应引起的两种不同速度脉冲运动对单自由度体系和长周期橡胶支座隔震建筑结构抗震性能的影响.反应谱分析表明,破裂向前方向性与滑冲效应对工程结构地震响应的影响是随结构周期变化的.在中短周期段,含破裂向前方向性效应地震动的谱加速度值大于含滑冲效应地震动的谱加速度值;而在长周期段,含滑冲效应地震动的谱加速度大于含破裂向前方向性效应的谱加速度值.并且,与无脉冲地震动作用相比,含破裂向前方向性与滑冲效应脉冲的近断层地震动作用下隔震建筑的地震响应显著增大.滑冲效应引起的速度脉冲使隔震建筑底部的层间变形和楼层剪力明显增大,这意味着滑冲效应脉冲比向前方向性效应脉冲对长周期建筑结构的破坏更具危害性. 相似文献
14.
A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering Mw up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Rupture directivity effects in ground motion are known since many years to both seismologists and earthquake engineers, i.e. in sites that are in a particular geometrical configuration with respect to the rupture, the velocity fault‐normal signals may show a large pulse which occurs at the beginning of the record and contains the most of energy. The results are waveforms different from ordinary ground motions recorded in the far field or in geometrical conditions not favorable with respect to directivity. Current attenuation laws are not able to capture such effect well, if at all, and current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is not able to predict the resulting peculiar spectral shape. Moreover, it is believed that structures with dynamic behavior in a range of periods related to the pulse period may be subjected to underestimated seismic demand. In the paper this is investigated and increments in both elastic and inelastic seismic actions are quantified using a large dataset of records, from the next generation attenuation project (NGA), in which a fraction is comprised of velocity pulses identified in other studies. These analyses employ recently developed tools and procedures to assess directivity effects and to quantify the associated threat in terms of seismic action on structures. Subsequently, the same tools are used in one of the first attempts to identify near‐source effects in the data recorded during a normal faulting earthquake, the mainshock of the recent Abruzzo (central Italy) sequence, leading to conclude that pulse‐like effects are likely to have occurred in the event, that is (1) observation of pulse‐like records in some near‐source stations is in fair agreement with existing predictive models, (2) the increment in seismic demand shown by pulse‐like ground motion components complies with the results of the analysis of the NGA data, and (3) seismic demand in non‐impulsive recordings is generally similar to what expected for ordinary records. The results may be useful as a benchmark for inclusion of near‐source effect in design values of seismic action and structural risk analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
In performance-based seismic design, as adopted by several building codes worldwide, the structural performance is verified against ground motions that have predetermined exceedance return periods at the site of interest. Such a return period is evaluated by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the corresponding ground motion is often represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The structural performance for ground motions larger than those considered in this design approach is, typically, not explicitly controlled under the assumption that they are sufficiently rare. On one hand, this does not achieve uniform safety at sites characterized by different design ground motions corresponding to the same return period; on the other hand, exceedances of the design spectra are systematically observed over large areas, for example in Italy. The latter issue is because of the nature of UHS, the exceedance of which is likely-to-almost-certain when the construction site is in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes (ie, the design spectrum may be not conservative at these locations), especially if PSHA is based on seismic source zones. The former is partially because of the systematic difference of ground motions for return periods larger than the design one at the different sites. Quantification of the expected ground motion given the exceedance of the design ground motions (ie, the recently introduced as the expected peak-over-threshold or POT) can be of help in quantitatively assessing these issues. In the study, a procedure to compute the POT distribution is derived first; second, POT spectra are introduced and used to help understanding why and how seismic structural reliability of code-conforming structures decreases as the seismic hazard of the site increases; third, expected and 95th percentile POT maps are shown for Italy to discuss how much high hazard sites are exposed to much larger peak-over-threshold with respect to mid-hazard and low-hazard sites; finally the POT is discussed with respect to the slope of the hazard curve (in log-log scale) at the threshold, a known proxy for ground motion beyond design. All data presented in the maps are made available for the interested reader as a supplemental archive. 相似文献
17.
Jens-Uwe Kl��gel 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(1-2):27-53
The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell?CMcGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang?CTang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling. 相似文献
18.
计算机仿真模拟设定地震断层动态破裂传播和近断层强地表运动响应的结果表明, 对于特征地震而言,近断层附近的地表运动特征与断层破裂传播的方向性有着强烈的依赖关系. 当场地（观测点）至断层的距离给定时,正向于破裂传播方向的场地（场地A）的地表质点运动（位移、速度、加速度）,远远大于震中附近（场地B）和反向于破裂传播方向的场地（场地C）的地表质点运动,而且沿断层垂直分量所辐射的SH波的传播起到了主导作用. 对应于场地A,B和C,统计分析结果表明,峰值加速度的几何平均值之比为2.15:1.5:1, 而且各自的均方差分别为0.12, 0.11和0.13. 如果将所得的研究结果应用于概率地震危险性分析中,对于较低的年超越频度,近断层附近的地表峰值加速度的估算值可下降15%~30%. 因此,考虑到断层破裂传播方向性对地表运动的影响,区域衰减曲线的回归分析模型应该给予恰当的修正. 相似文献
19.
An efficient algorithm for identifying pulse‐like ground motions based on significant velocity half‐cycles 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Ground motions with strong velocity pulses are of particular interest to structural earthquake engineers because they have the potential to impose extreme seismic demands on structures. Accurate classification of records is essential in several earthquake engineering fields where pulse‐like ground motions should be distinguished from nonpulse‐like records, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk assessment of structures. This study proposes an effective method to identify pulse‐like ground motions having single, multiple, or irregular pulses. To effectively characterize the intrinsic pulse‐like features, the concept of an energy‐based significant velocity half‐cycle, which is visually identifiable, is first presented. Ground motions are classified into 6 categories according to the number of significant half‐cycles in the velocity time series. The pulse energy ratio is used as an indicator for quantitative identification, and then the energy threshold values for each type of ground motions are determined. Comprehensive comparisons of the proposed approach with 4 benchmark identification methods are conducted, and the results indicate that the methodology presented in this study can more accurately and efficiently distinguish pulse‐like and nonpulse‐like ground motions. Also presented are some insights into the reasons why many pulse‐like ground motions are not detected successfully by each of the benchmark methods. 相似文献