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1.
In the present study, the spatiotemporal properties of the Aigion earthquake (15 June 1995) aftershock sequence are being studied using the concept of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances are being estimated for the data set which is assumed to be complete and the analysis yielded the thermodynamic q parameter to be qT = 1.58 and q r = 0.53 for the two distributions, respectively. The results fit rather well to the inter-event distances and times distributions, implying the complexity of the spatiotemporal properties of seismicity and the usefulness of NESP in investigating such phenomena. The temporal structure is also being discussed using the complementary to NESP approach of superstatistics, which is based on a superposition of ordinary local equilibrium statistical mechanics. The result indicates that very low degrees of freedom describe the temporal evolution of the Aigion earthquake aftershock seismicity.  相似文献   

2.
In earthquake occurrence studies, the so-called q value can be considered both as one of the parameters describing the distribution of interevent times and as an index of non-extensivity. Using simulated datasets, we compare four kinds of estimators, based on principle of maximum entropy (POME), method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (MLE), and probability weighted moments (PWM) of the parameters (q and τ 0) of the distribution of inter-events times, assumed to be a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), as defined by Tsallis (1988) in the frame of non-extensive statistical physics. We then propose to use the unbiased version of PWM estimators to compute the q value for the distribution of inter-event times in a realistic earthquake catalogue simulated according to the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Finally, we use these findings to build a statistical emulator of the q values of ETAS model. We employ treed Gaussian processes to obtain partitions of the parameter space so that the resulting model respects sharp changes in physical behaviour. The emulator is used to understand the joint effects of input parameters on the q value, exploring the relationship between ETAS model formulation and distribution of inter-event times.  相似文献   

3.
The M w 6.2 Lefkada earthquake occurred on 14 August 2003 beneath the western coastline of Lefkada Island. The main shock was followed by an intense aftershock activity, which formed a narrow band extending over the western coast of the Island and the submarine area between Lefkada and Kefalonia Islands, whereas additional off fault aftershocks formed spatial clusters on the central and northwestern part of the Island. The aftershock spatial distribution revealed the activation of along-strike adjacent fault segment as well as of secondary faults close to the main rupture. The properties of the activated segments were illuminated by the precisely located aftershocks, fault plane solutions determination and the cross sections performed parallel and normal to their strike. The aftershock focal mechanisms exhibited mainly strike slip faulting throughout the activated area, although deviation of the dominant stress pattern is also observed. The results help to emphasize the importance of the identification of activated nearby fault segments possibly triggered by the main rupture. Because such segments are capable to produce moderate events causing appreciable damage, they should be viewed with caution in seismic hazard assessment in addition to the major regional faults.  相似文献   

4.
We examine the nature of the seismogenetic system along the San Andreas Fault (SAF), California, USA, by searching for evidence of complexity and non-extensivity in the earthquake record. We use accurate, complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogues in which aftershocks are included (raw catalogues), or have been removed by a stochastic declustering procedure (declustered catalogues). On the basis of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (NESP), which generalizes the Boltzmann–Gibbs formalism to non-equilibrating (complex) systems, we investigate whether earthquakes are generated by an extensive self-excited Poisson process or by a non-extensive complex process. We examine bivariate cumulative frequency distributions of earthquake magnitudes and interevent times and determine the size and time dependence of the respective magnitude and temporal entropic indices, which indicate the level on non-equilibrium (correlation). It is shown that the magnitude entropic index is very stable and corresponds to proxy b-values that are remarkably consistent with the b-values computed by conventional means. The temporal entropic index computed from the raw catalogues indicate moderately to highly correlated states during the aftershock sequences of large earthquakes, progressing to quasi-uncorrelated states as these die out and before the next large event. Conversely, the analysis of the declustered catalogues shows that background seismicity exhibits moderate to high correlation that varies significantly albeit smoothly with time. This indicates a persistent sub-extensive seismogenetic system. The degree of correlation is generally higher in the southern SAF segment, which is consistent with the observation of shorter return periods for large earthquakes. A plausible explanation is that because aftershock sequences are localized in space and time, their efficient removal unveils long-range background interactions which are obscured by their presence! Our results indicate complexity in the expression of background seismicity along the San Andreas Fault, with criticality being a very likely mechanism as a consequence of the persistent non-equilibrium inferred from the temporal entropic index. However, definite conclusions cannot be drawn until the earthquake record is exhaustively studied in all its forms.  相似文献   

5.
The 2022 Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake, which occurred on January 8, is the most destructive earthquake to occur near the Lenglongling (LLL) fault since the 2016 Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake. We relocated the mainshock and aftershocks with phase arrival time observations for three days after the mainshock from the Qinghai Seismic Network using the double-difference method. The total length and width of the aftershock sequence are approximately 32 km and 5 km, respectively, and the aftershocks are mainly concentrated at a depth of 7–12 km. The relocated sequence can be divided into 18 km west and 13 km east segments with a boundary approximately 5 km east of the mainshock, where aftershocks are sparse. The east and west fault structures revealed by aftershock locations differ significantly. The west fault strikes EW and inclines to the south at a 71º–90º angle, whereas the east fault strikes 133º and has a smaller dip angle. Elastic strain accumulates at conjunctions of faults with different slip rates where it is prone to large earthquakes. Based on surface traces of faults, the distribution of relocated earthquake sequence and surface ruptures, the mainshock was determined to have occurred at the conjunction of the Tuolaishan (TLS) fault and LLL fault, and the west and east segments of the aftershock sequence were on the TLS fault and LLL fault, respectively. Aftershocks migrate in the early and late stages of the earthquake sequence. In the first 1.5 h after the mainshock, aftershocks expand westward from the mainshock. In the late stage, seismicity on the northeast side of the east fault is higher than that in other regions. The migration rate of the west segment of the aftershock sequence is approximately 4.5 km/decade and the afterslip may exist in the source region.  相似文献   

6.
The 2014 Kefalonia earthquake sequence started on 26 January with the first main shock (MW6.1) and aftershock activity extending over 35 km, much longer than expected from the causative fault segment. The second main shock (MW6.0) occurred on 3 February on an adjacent fault segment, where the aftershock distribution was remarkably sparse, evidently encouraged by stress transfer of the first main shock. The aftershocks from the regional catalog were relocated using a 7-layer velocity model and station residuals, and their distribution evidenced two adjacent fault segments striking almost N-S and dipping to the east, in full agreement with the centroid moment tensor solutions, constituting segments of the Kefalonia Transform Fault (KTF). The KTF is bounded to the north by oblique parallel smaller fault segments, linking KTF with its northward continuation, the Lefkada Fault.  相似文献   

7.
Fault population statistics play a key role in the understanding of any statistical seismicity approach. In the present work a non-extensive statistical physics approach is formulated and tested for the local fault length distribution. The approach is composed of the following parts: (i) Tsallis entropy, S q , (ii) maximization of the Tsallis entropy under appropriate constrains, and (iii) derivation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the fault length population. This model is tested using fault length data from the Central Crete graben in front of the Hellenic arc and estimated a thermodynamic q parameter equal to 1.16, which supports the conclusion that the fault system in Central Crete graben is a sub-extensive one.  相似文献   

8.
采用双差定位方法,利用中国地震台网的数据对2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震的余震序列进行了重新定位。截至2017年8月14日16时,共获得209个余震的重新定位结果。结果显示,余震主要呈近EW向或NWW向分布,余震区长约50km,宽约17km。余震分布在主震的西侧,推断此次地震单侧破裂。余震震源深度为1～25km,其中,震级较大余震深度为8～17km。精河地震序列的余震活动随时间呈起伏状衰减,震后2天内比较活跃,此后出现较快衰减。随时间推移,余震区呈现中西部衰减慢、东部衰减快的特点。此次地震震中距2011年精河5.0级地震震中21km,相比2011年精河地震,其震源更深,震级更大,但震源机制解相近,均为逆冲型。结合区域构造背景分析认为,库松木契克山前断裂为此次地震发震构造的可能性较大。  相似文献   

9.
Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M W =6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.  相似文献   

10.
The purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the temporal decay of aftershocks temporal series following a mainshock with magnitude M ≥ 7.0. In this paper we present the results for the Taiwan seismic sequence started on 20 September 1999 (M = 7.7) by tuning some seismic parameters that show considerable variations during the aftershock decay process. In here we also present the results obtained using a fractal approach for the seismic sequence. Earthquakes belong to a class of phenomena known as multifractals. In general it is important to define the fractal dimension D, but sometimes is not useful if we are describing a natural phenomenon; so it is necessary to define D 0 called box-counting dimension and D 2 called correlation dimension, usually D 0 ≥ D 2. In the elaborations of the fractal dimensions, for this sequence, we have obtained values lesser than 1, with a greater tendency of aftershocks to clusterize in time before a large aftershock. This is coherent with the possible existence of seismic anomalies, that could occur before the large aftershock. We also report the results obtained by using the delta/sigma method described firstly in [Caccamo et al., 2005] and later applied to different seismic sequence. The observed temporal series of the aftershocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic and a stochastic contribution. If the decay can be modeled as a non-stationary Poissonian process, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t) Δt, with a standard deviation (δ = √n(t)Δt. Investigating both aftershock behavior and a wide spectrum of parameters may find the key to explain better the mechanism of seismicity as a whole.  相似文献   

11.
The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M?>?2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24?h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north?Csouth trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15?s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120?km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US?CMexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50?km long, as well as a 10?km north?Csouth aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific?CNorth America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San Andreas fault system to the north. We propose that the location of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, as well as the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes, may have been controlled by the bends in the plate boundary.  相似文献   

12.
The 2022 MS 6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 MS 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock. The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ～35 mm and ～55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of VIII or above near the ruptured area, consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being MS 4.5. Aftershock locations (up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.  相似文献   

13.
通过海城地震余震活动序列资料，根据相空间中余震活动的演化特征，余震活动的功率谱和非线性地震活动演化方程的迭代解详细地研究了余震活动的基本特征．结果显示，余震活动除了通常熟悉的平均的衰减和周期性行为之外，还存在同样显著的混沌行为．  相似文献   

14.
The object of the present study was to obtain and investigate the 3D velocity structure of the rupture zone of a large earthquake, to be specific, the great ( Mw = 7.8) Kronotskii earthquake that occurred in Kamchatka on December 5, 1997. The event was preceded by a foreshock swarm (December 3–5, 1997) and followed by a long aftershock sequence. We investigated the V P velocity distribution for different time periods: December 3–7, 1997 (when the chief events occurred, viz., the main shock and the larger aftershocks) and for subsequent periods of decaying aftershock activity until December 1998. The velocity distribution in the rupture zone proved to be inhomogeneous. Three regions have been identified: the northeastern (the main shock and foreshocks), the central, and the southwestern, which differ both in the character of seismicity and in velocity. The V P distribution was found to be time-dependent. The velocity was below the standard values in the foreshock-aftershock area in December 1997, subsequently the velocity increased. These results may indicate the absence of a continuous rupture zone, with the main shock and the two largest aftershocks that occurred in the southwest probably being independent events rupturing a transverse fault during the stress rearrangement following the main shock.  相似文献   

15.
The aftershocks of the catastrophic Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004 (M = 9.0) are analyzed in the general context of the theory of critical phenomena. The analysis relies on the idea that, according to this theory, critical transitions have two key properties. The first is that the intensity of the fluctuations in a dynamical system monotonically increases with the approach of the bifurcation point, so that at a certain time instant, a sufficiently strong internal pulse initiates the catastrophe. This transition can be treated as spontaneous. The second property is that the reactance of the dynamical system drastically increases on the approach of the bifurcation. Even a weak external perturbation in the near-threshold interval can result in a catastrophe. In this case, it is reasonable to refer to the critical transition as an induced transition. The aftershocks of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake are likely to demonstrate the typical features of induced seismicity. First, the strongest aftershock (M = 7.2) occurred 3 h 20 min after the main shock. It could have probably been induced by the round-trip seismic echo. Second, it was found that the spectral density of the aftershock sequence significantly increases at about ～0.3 mHz, which is close to the frequency of the spheroidal mode 0S2. This suggests that the spheroidal oscillations of the Earth, which are excited by the main seismic shock, modulate the aftershock activity. Both hypotheses are supported by the analysis of the aftershocks of the Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 (M = 9.0).  相似文献   

16.
The role of static stress changes in triggering an earthquake has long been debated in the fields of geophysics and fault mechanics. Valuable data sets for the study of static triggering were provided within the 1-year period following the devastating 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake (MW=7.6), during which more than 20,000 aftershocks occurred. In this study, stress waves generated by the Chi-Chi earthquake were calculated using a source rupture model in conjunction with a layered elastic model. Static (permanent) stress changes were extracted from the long-period offsets in the stressgrams. Correlations between the calculated stress changes and seismicity were analyzed at different depths and over varying time intervals to ascertain the impact effects of stress changes on triggering aftershocks. Correlations between prior seismicity rates and static stress changes imposed by the Chi-Chi event were low, while correlations between late seismicity rates and static stress changes were much higher. This indicates that static stress changes did affect the occurrence of the Chi-Chi aftershock sequence. The percentage of early aftershocks at shallow depths (0-10 km) in static stress-enhanced areas within 2 weeks of the main shock was high but decreased considerably at greater depths (>10 km) and over longer time periods. It is concluded that static stress changes at depths of 0-10 km played a major role in triggering crustal aftershocks, especially those that occurred within 2 weeks of the main shock. In the deeper crust, static stress changes may have been modified by viscous flow, and at later times, perturbed by earlier, larger aftershocks. Although the correlations between seismicity rate changes and static stress changes are imperfect, a region that was anti-triggered is detected when these two results are compared. Static stress changes are presumably not the only aftershock triggering mechanism, but they definitively play a major role in triggering shallow aftershocks.  相似文献   

17.
A probabilistic modeling is used to analyze the spatio-temporal behavior of eleven aftershock sequences occurred in South and Southeastern Spain. This study focuses on the analysis of two seismicity parameters: the b-value of the frequency-magnitude distribution, and the p-value, explaining the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The estimated b values range between 0.77 ± 0.05 and 1.18 ± 0.10 close to the typical b-values of the aftershock frequency-magnitude relationship b ≈ 1.0. The estimated p-values range between 0.75 ± 0.03 and 1.43 ± 0.10 showing broad regimes of the temporal decay of aftershocks. The modified Bath’s law used to analyze the energy partitioning, suggests that a large fraction of the accumulated energy is released in the mainshock and relatively small fraction of energy is released during aftershock sequence, for example 80% of the total energy is released during the Mula 1999 mainshock, 88% during Bullas 2002 mainshock and 87% during La Paca 2005 mainshock. The fractal dimension D2 is estimated using the correlation integral, and then used to derive the slip ratio, as the ratio of the slip occurred on primary fault segment to the total slip. For example, we obtained a slip ratio equal to 71% for the Mula 1999 aftershock sequence, 61% for the Bullas 2002 event, 58% for the La Paca 2005 aftershock, 50% for the Lorca 2011 sequence and 63% for the sequence triggered by the Gador 2002 mainshock.Finally, the correlations between the fractal dimension, the b-value and the p-value is analyzed, and the Aki’s relation D = 3b/c is discussed as well.  相似文献   

18.
Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.  相似文献   

19.
Cross-correlation analysis was applied to events in the 2003 Lefkada Island, Greece, sequence in order to identify clusters of seismicity within the extensive aftershock sequence along a fault zone of approximately 100 km length. Data from the small-aperture TRISAR array, covering the first 2 days of aftershock activity, were used. Array-based waveform correlation has a great advantage over single channel correlation analysis in that the validity of waveform matches with relatively low correlation coefficients can be examined by checking the alignment of correlation traces on the different channels. The length of the fault zone leads inevitably to a great diversity in the waveforms, although a small number of clusters of very similar events emerge from the TRISAR data. Events which the correlation analysis had placed within the same cluster were listed in the ISC Bulletin with separations of up to tens of kilometres. This made it necessary to check the validity of the TRISAR clusters by applying the same procedure independently to the three-component stations of the National Seismographic Network of the National Observatory of Athens, located at local to regional distances from the aftershock area. Results suggest that array-based waveform correlation provides a robust tool both for identifying event clusters within large aftershock areas and for identifying situations in which bulletin event location estimates need re-evaluation.  相似文献   

20.
We present a fresh look at the source region of the 22 January 2003 M w 7.4 Armería earthquake, which occurred off the Pacific coast of the state of Colima, Mexico, near the town of Armería. The effects of this earthquake in the neighboring states of Colima and Jalisco were different and stronger than those of previous recent major earthquakes in the region. This earthquake and its aftershocks were recorded by two local telemetered seismograph networks (RESCO and RESJAL). From 22 January to 24 January 2003, no important seismicity was located on the plates interface, or within the Rivera Plate, and most epicenters were located west of the Armería River, which is the western border of the Colima Graben, and is located outside of the Colima Gap region. From 24 January to 31 January, the seismicity recorded by both networks showed a migration in depth, with an almost vertical offshore distribution between 4 and 24?km in depth. For this period, a seven-station portable digital seismograph network, equipped with three-component seismometers, was deployed in the epicentral area to study the aftershock sequence in detail. With this denser network more than 200 M L?>?2.0 aftershocks were recorded. The aftershock foci were deeper than those recorded during the early period and most of them locate on a hypothetical 12° dipping interface between the Rivera and North American Plates. Composite focal mechanism solutions for the aftershocks located during both periods indicate a reverse fault character that changes with time. Analysis of the new dataset still indicates that the earthquake was a shallow intraplate event.  相似文献   

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