首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Urbanization is the most typical form of land use/cover change, and exploration of the driving mechanism of urban growth and the prediction of its future changes are very important for achieving urban sustainable development. In view of the ability of a multi-agent system to simulate a complex spatial system and from the perspective of combining macroscopic and microscopic decision-making behaviors of agents, a spatiotemporal dynamical urban growth simulation model based on the multi-agent systems has been developed. In this model, macroscopic land use planning behaviors implemented by macroagents and microscopic land use selection behaviors autonomously generated by microagents interact within two-dimensional spatial cells. Furthermore, the urbanization process is promoted through joint decision-making by macroagents and microagents. Considering the central region of the coastal industrial city Lianyungang as the study area, we developed three target scenarios on the basis of current trends, economic development priorities, and environmental protection priorities. Moreover, the corresponding urban growth scenarios were simulated and analyzed. The simulation results show that by combining the macroscopic and microscopic decision-making behaviors of agents to simulate spatiotemporal dynamical urban growth based on the multi-agent systems, the proposed model can provide a useful spatial exploratory tool for explaining the driving mechanism of urbanization and providing decision-making support for urban management.  相似文献   

2.
Based on the global land cover data at 30 m resolution (GlobeLand30) in the year 2000 and 2010, the urban expansion process of 320 cities in China was analyzed using lognormal regression, and the expansion model were established. Three metrics were presented for the models, including the peak position, the full width at half maximum, and the skewness. It was found that the three metrics could reveal different patterns of the urban expansion process of cities with different sizes. Specifically, cities with larger size tend to expand outward strongly, and their expansion intensity and influence are likely to be higher. Moreover, most cities’ expansion occurs around the urban core with spatially limited influence. In addition, it was also found that the city’s expansion intensity is related to the city size. These results showed that the lognormal regression model could describe the distribution of urban expansion with effectiveness and robustness.  相似文献   

3.
During the past decades, Daqing City, China has experienced unprecedented urban expansion due to the rapid development of petroleum industry. With rapid urbanization and lack of strategic planning, Daqing is facing many socio-economic and environmental problems, and it is essential to examine the process of urbanization, and to develop policy recommendations for sustainable development. To address this problem, this paper examined the urbanization process of Daqing City through developing two multi-level models: an integrated system dynamic (SD) and CLUE-S model (SD-CLUES), and an integrated SD and stochastic cellular automata model (SD-CA). Analysis of results suggests that these two models generate significantly different results. With the SD-CLUES model, new urban developments are clustered in the downtown area or along major transportation networks, indicating exogenous driving forces playing an important role in shaping urban spatial dynamics. With the SD-CA model, on the contrary, the resultant new urban cells are spread over the entire study area, and associated with existing urban areas. Further, visual comparisons and validations indicate that the SD-CA model is a better alternative in explaining the urbanization mechanism of Daqing City. In addition, analysis of results suggests that the stochastic factor in the CA model has significant impact on the modeling accuracy.  相似文献   

4.
Urbanization can change catchment hydrology, accelerating gully erosion and causing serious damage to urban structures like roads, bridges and buildings. Increased impervious surfaces lead to large, rapid increases in surface runoff in urban catchments during storm events, as well as changes in the upslope contributing area due to rerouting of urban runoff that can exacerbate erosion. Accounting for changes in surface drainage patterns Gama City, Brazil, is used to predict areas prone to accelerate gullying and develop a method of assessing the potential for gully erosion produced by urbanization. The method is based on the analysis and comparison of detailed digital elevation models (DEMs) of the natural condition before urbanization and the topography after urbanization. The study site is located in an area where changes in drainage patterns associated with rapid urbanization in the last 30 years have resulted in severe gullying. Our analysis identifies areas potentially susceptible to gullying and highlights the erosional influence of increased flow concentration caused by urban occupation, a finding that has implications and applications for strategies to prevent gully development in cities or areas undergoing urban expansion. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
An essential part of hydrological research focuses on hydrological extremes, such as river peak flows and associated floods, because of their large impact on economy, environment, and human life. These extremes can be affected by potential future environmental change, including global climate change and land cover change. In this paper, the relative impact of both climate change and urban expansion on the peak flows and flood extent is investigated for a small‐scale suburban catchment in Belgium. A rainfall‐runoff model was coupled to a hydrodynamic model in order to simulate the present‐day and future river streamflow. The coupled model was calibrated based on a series of measured water depths and, after model validation, fed with different climate change and urban expansion scenarios in order to evaluate the relative impact of both driving factors on the peak flows and flood extent. The three climate change scenarios that were used (dry, wet winter, wet summer) were based on a statistical downscaling of 58 different RCM and GCM scenario runs. The urban expansion scenarios were based on three different urban growth rates (low, medium, high urban expansion) that were set up by means of an extrapolation of the observed trend of urban expansion. The results suggest that possible future climate change is the main source of uncertainty affecting changes in peak flow and flood extent. The urban expansion scenarios show a more consistent trend. The potential damage related to a flood is, however, mainly influenced by land cover changes that occur in the floodplain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
A new concept of urban environmental entropy was introduced to investigate the effect of urbanization on air environment considering the fact that rapid development of urbanization may have negative influence on the whole air environment system. The urban environmental entropies which were built based on the generalized thermodynamic entropy and the generalized statistic entropy, respectively. These two entropy models have been used to analyze the relationship between the development of urbanization and air environment. The negative entropy flow mechanism was proposed to reveal the advantages and approaches of regional cities in improving air environment system. A case study on 17 cities in Shandong Province of China showed that the values of urban environmental entropy were negative in most cities from 2001 to 2008, which implies that there is a positive correlation between the development of urbanization and air environment and that is a negative entropy development level in Shandong Province of China. In 2008, the urbanization of Qingdao city and Jinan city improved their air environments. Moreover, restraints for both cities in air environment improvement were recognized according to the analysis of negative entropy flow mechanism.  相似文献   

7.
Studies of urbanization effects in Chinese cities from the aspect of the coupled development of economy and environment are rare due to data limitations. This paper studied Shanghai’s fast urban expansion and examined the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environment consequences at the district level. We extracted data on urban built-up area and land surface temperature from remote sensing images. We analyzed the patterns of urban expansion and land use change and explained the dynamic relationship between economic development and environment conditions. We attributed the uneven economic development and environmental change in districts of Shanghai to four main institutional factors: (1) the role of the government, (2) the multi-level urban planning system, (3) land market reform, and (4) the economic restructuring.  相似文献   

8.
We examine relationships between nationwide sparing use of water and farmer income of China in this article. As increasing implementation of water projects and irrigation system, the cost of water use has increased in many regions. However, as local policy-oriented urban expansion and ecological restoration have carried out during the past decade, water demand has increased. The spatial distributions of water use and farmer income are uneven and their relationships are ambiguous over time, especially it is uncertain that farmers can benefit from those so called water-saving programs when urban expansion grows faster in China. Based on consumption theory, empirical results of Blundell–Bond dynamic panel-data model with generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators indicate saving one percent of water has positive impacts at 0.085–0.35 percent on farmer income in the following statistical year. Population has negative impacts on farmer income. Particularly in Central China, one percent of increase in population will statistically significantly decrease 0.276 percent of contemporaneous farmer income. Particularly, in Eastern China with large population during years 2004 through 2012, the total amount of water use increases one percent, contemporaneous farmer income loses 0.04 percent. Thus, saving water can benefit future farmer income, and it indicates that urban expansion may induce the diversion of resources and agricultural production from rural to urban area. Policy implication of relationships between water allocation and farmer income distribution caused by water-saving programs needs to be further studied at regional scale, in particularly to the regions with large population and urban expansion in China.  相似文献   

9.
This paper examines spatial variations of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities through a case study of Dongguan, a rapidly industrializing city characterized by a bottom-up pattern of development based on townships. We have employed both non-spatial and spatial logistic regression models to analyze urban land conversion. The non-spatial logistic regression has found the significance of accessibility, neighborhood conditions and socioeconomic factors for urban development. The logistic regression with spatially expanded coefficients significantly improves the orthodoxy logistic regression with lower levels of spatial autocorrelation of residuals and better goodness-of-fit. More importantly, the spatial logistic model reveals the spatially varying relationship between urban growth and its underlying factors, particularly the local influence of environment protection and urban development policies. The results of the spatial logistic model also provide clear clues for assessing environmental risks to take the local contexts into account.  相似文献   

10.
Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025–2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.  相似文献   

11.
快速城镇化进程中太湖流域下垫面的剧烈变化对流域产水量时空分布产生了深刻影响.在分析太湖流域城镇化进程及土地利用变化的基础上,采用太湖流域模型对3种典型降雨过程（1991、1999和2009年）与5种下垫面（1985、1995、2000、2005和2010年）的组合情景进行模拟,综合分析了城镇化进程中全流域和各水利分区在全年期、汛期、涨水期产水量变化的时空分布特征.结果表明：时程上,太湖流域和所有水利分区的各统计时段产水量增幅伴随城镇化进程推进均呈现增加趋势,2005年后产水量增幅进一步加大,且全年产水量增幅主要集中在汛期;空间上,东、中部城市集聚区的产水量增长率明显高于西部山丘区与太湖湖区,这主要是由于西部山丘区、太湖湖区不透水率增幅较小所致.产水量变化的时空非均匀分布特征为城镇化背景下太湖流域防洪除涝格局演变及流域-区域-城市防洪除涝协调性研究提供了重要的先验认识.  相似文献   

12.
A critical issue in urban cellular automata (CA) modeling concerns the identification of transition rules that generate realistic urban land use patterns. Recent studies have demonstrated that linear methods cannot sufficiently delineate the extraordinary complex boundaries between urban and non-urban areas and as most urban CA models simulate transitions across these boundaries, there is an urgent need for good methods to facilitate such delineations. This paper presents a machine learning CA model (termed MachCA) with nonlinear transition rules based on least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) to simulate such urban growth. By projecting the input dataset into a high dimensional space using the LS-SVM method, an optimal hyper-plane is constructed to separate the complex boundaries between urban and nonurban land, thus enabling the retrieval of nonlinear CA transition rules. In the MachCA model, the transition rules are yes–no decisions on whether a cell changes its state or not, the rules being dynamically updated for each iteration of the model implementation. The application of the MachCA for simulating urban growth in the Shanghai Qingpu–Songjiang area in China reveals that the spatial configurations of rural–urban patterns can be modeled. A comparison of the MachCA model with a conventional CA model fitted by logarithmic regression (termed LogCA) shows that the MachCA model produces more hits and less misses and false alarms due to its capability for capturing the spatial complexity of urban dynamics. This results in improved simulation accuracies, although with only less than 1 % deviation between the overall errors produced by the MachCA and LogCA models. Nevertheless, the way MachCA model use in retrieving the transition rules provides a new method for simulating the dynamic process of urban growth.  相似文献   

13.
长江中游城市群是实施生态优先绿色发展战略的重点区域,从水资源承载系统内的水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统中选取24项指标构建水资源承载力评价体系,综合运用改进熵权TOPSIS模型、空间自相关分析和耦合协调发展模型定量评价2012-2018年长江中游城市群水资源承载力时空变化过程及子系统间的耦合协调性.结果表明,（1）长江中游城市群整体水资源承载力水平表现为：缓慢上升（2012-2015年）、下降（2015-2017年）、再上升的趋势（2017-2018年）;（2）水资源承载力的空间差异不明显（仅2016年差异显著）,武汉城市圈水资源承载力的空间差异相对较大且呈现低值包围高值的空间分布特征;（3）各城市生态环境子系统承载力得分较为均衡,但其他子系统的承载力均差异较大;（4）影响水资源承载力的主要因素依次为城市污水处理厂日处理能力、人均GDP、城镇化率、第三产业比重和人均水资源量;（5）长江中游城市群水资源承载系统的耦合协调度总体处于中等水平,且水资源承载力与耦合协调度有极强的正相关关系.研究结果可为长江中游城市群水资源承载力改善及水资源优化配置提供依据.  相似文献   

14.
Urbanization in China has expanded at an unprecedented speed since the declaration of "Reform and Open Policy"and presented many challenges. Unbalanced regional development, appearance of super megacities and concomitant problems,and conflicts between urbanization and cultivated land protection are three critical problems that Chinese urbanization has to face. To develop new plans for foreseeable future urbanization in China, it is critical to understand the evolving history of cities across China. This study maps urban expansion of 60 typical Chinese cities based on large amount of remote sensing data and the labor-intensive image interpretation method, in order to understand the history of urban expansion from the 1970 s to 2013.Results showed that area of cities expanded 5.23 times compared to their area in the 1970 s. Urban expansion in China accelerated three times(1988–1996, 1999–2006, and 2009–2011) and decelerated three times(1997–1998, 2007–2008, and 2012–2013) over the 40 years. The urban area of South China expanded most significantly 9.42 times, while the urban area in Northeast China expanded only 2.37 times. The disparity among different administrative ranks of cities was even greater than(3.81 times) the differences among different regions. Super megacities have been continuously expanding at a fast rate(8.60-fold), and have not shown obvious signs of slowing down. The proportion of cultivated land among the land sources for urban expansion decreased to a small extent in the 1990 s, but cultivated land continues to be the major land source for urban expansion. Effective future urbanization needs controlling the expansion scale of large cities and reasonably developing medium and small cities, as well as balancing regional development.  相似文献   

15.
A gravity-spatial entropy model for the measurement of urban sprawl   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Since the mid-twentieth century, most cities worldwide have undergone a rapid expansion in urban land use. Along with the expansion, several problems, such as excessive loss of prime agricultural land and increasing traffic congestion have arisen. Thus, understanding and measurements of the expansion scale and its speed are crucial to planners and officials during urban planning and management processes. To measure such geographic phenomena, Shannon first devised entropy theory, and then Batty developed it into spatial entropy. The recently developed spatial entropy model, which was used to measure urban sprawl, introduced area to represent spatial asymmetry. However, most models did not consider spatial discretization, particularly the impact of distance. This study attempted to construct an integrated gravity-spatial entropy model to delineate distance and spatial diffusion impacts on population distribution. Then, we tested the model using Shanghai’s temporal land use and community statistical data. Application results for the new gravity-spatial model show that it is a useful tool for identifying spatial and temporal variations of urban sprawl.  相似文献   

16.
Waterlogging is one of the major water issues in most cities of China and directly restricts their urbanization processes. The construction of Sponge City is an effective approach to solving the urban water issues, particularly for the waterlogging. In this study, both the urban issues emerged at the stage of rapid urbanization in China and the demands as well as problems of Sponge City construction related with the water issues were investigated, and the opportunities and challenges for the Sponge City construction in the future were also proposed. It was found that the current stormwater management focused on the construction of gray infrastructures (e.g., drainage network and water tank) based on the fast discharge idea, which was costly and hard to catch up with the rapid expansion of city and its impervious surface, while green infrastructures (e.g., river, lake and wetland) were ignored. Moreover, the current construction of Sponge City was still limited to low impacted development (LID) approach which was concentrated on source control measures without consideration of the critical functions of surrounding landscapes (i.e., mountain, river, wetland, forest, farmland and lake), while application of the integrated urban water system approach and its supported technologies including municipal engineering, urban hydrology, environmental science, social science and ecoscape were relatively weak and needed to be improved. Besides, the lack of special Sponge City plan and demonstration area was also a considerable problem. In this paper, some perspectives on Good Sponge City Construction were proposed such as the point that idea of urban plan and construction should conform to the integral and systematic view of sustainable urban development. Therefore, both the basic theoretical research and the basic infrastructure construction such as monitoring system, drainage facility and demonstration area should be strengthened, meanwhile, the reformation and innovation in the urban water management system and the education system should also be urgently performed. The study was expected to provide a deeper thinking for the current Sponge City construction in China and to give some of suggestions for the future directions to urban plan and construction, as well as urban hydrology discipline.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

Growth in water use and threatened shortages of water have become increasingly important in the modern world system. Natural resources are exploited extensively by capitalist interests in industrially advanced nations, while the lower strata of the world system, the underdeveloped societies, are left with limited access to natural resources for their productive processes, particularly water resources. We contribute to socio-hydrological research by examining underlying socio-structural factors that play a part in the process of deteriorating conditions of global water resources. Drawing on a world-systems perspective, this study examines how socio-structural forces – world-system position, per capita beef consumption, per capita energy consumption, and urbanization – affect per capita water footprint, which includes an accounting of “virtual water” consumption. We find that per capita beef consumption and per capita energy consumption have significant positive direct effects, and the world-system position has a significant indirect and total effect on per capita water footprint.  相似文献   

18.
  相似文献   

19.
In the logarithmic curves of the per capita GDP and the urbanization, with the traditional environmental Kuznets equation, this paper presented a coupling equation showing the relationship between urbanization and the atmospheric environment. Based on the “double exponential” coupling curve, the principles of flattening, advancing and fast-falling that new coupling curve should be followed were discussed. According to the two indicators of environmental assessment, namely the treatment cost and the deterioration degree of the environment, a new dual four times matrix model with the corresponding countermeasures and environment policy were introduced. Taking Shandong Province as an example, the coupling relationship between urbanization and atmospheric environment was investigated. The coupling curve showed that it was in running-in stage, and atmospheric quality tended to be improved. SO2 curve fluctuated more significantly compared with soot and industrial dust curves. The matrix model shows that the combination of flattening principle and advancing principle is preferable for SO2 emissions, but the fast-falling principle is recommended for soot and industrial dust emissions.  相似文献   

20.
Urban growth along the middle section of the ancient silk-road of China (so called West Yellow River Corridor—He-Xi Corridor) has taken a unique path deviating from what is commonly seen in the coastal China. Urban growth here has been driven by historical heritage, transportation connection between East and West China, and mineral exploitation. However, it has been constrained by water shortage and harsh natural environment because this region is located in arid and semi-arid climate zones. This paper attempts to construct a multi-city agent-based model to explore possible trajectories of regional urban growth along the entire He-Xi Corridor under a severe environment risk, over urban growth under an extreme threat of water shortage. In contrast with current ABM approaches, our model will simulate urban growth in a large administrative region consisting of a system of cities. It simultaneously considers the spatial variations of these cities in terms of population size, development history, water resource endowment and sustainable development potential. It also explores potential impacts of exogenous inter-city interactions on future urban growth on the basis of urban gravity model. The algorithmic foundations of three types of agents, developers, conservationists and regional-planners, are discussed. Simulations with regard to three different development scenarios are presented and analyzed.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号