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1.
This paper deals with the rapid estimation of the hazard posed by strong aftershocks for Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands based on the 12-hour aftershocks, namely, their rate, time of expectation, and maximum magnitude. The data set consists of main shocks and aftershocks as reported in the Catalog of the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences (GS RAS) for 1968–2016. We used both the Gutenberg–Richter relation and the Omori–Utsu law to find that the aftershock rates in two time intervals are connected by a relationship of proportionality, with the constant of proportionality being independent of the lowest magnitude of these earthquakes. With this property in mind, we calculated the constants of proportionality for estimating the rate of aftershocks with a magnitude above threshold values based on the data for the first 12 hours after the main shock. We have derived easily remembered rules for estimating the aftershock rates that can be expected for 5 days and for 1 month with magnitudes above a fixed value based on the 12-hour aftershock observations. We also derived empirical regression relations to estimate the magnitude of the largest aftershock that can be expected to occur during 1 year after the main shock and the time of the last aftershock to occur whose magnitude is 5.2 or greater. 相似文献
2.
We present a new visualization method for human inspection of seismic data called supersonograms, which maximizes the amount of time and stations visible on screen while retaining the possibility to detect short and low-signal to noise ratio (SNR) signals. This visualization approach is integrated into a seismological software suite used in the seismic aftershock monitoring system (SAMS) of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) on-site inspections (OSI) to detect suspicious events eventually representing aftershocks from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE). During an OSI, huge amounts of continuous waveform data accumulate from up to 50 six-channel mini-arrays covering an inspection area of 1,000 square kilometers. Sought-after events can have magnitude as low as $\hbox{M}_{\rm L}\,{-2.0}$ and duration of just a few seconds, which makes it particularly hard to discover them in large, noisy datasets. Therefore, the data visualization is based on nonlinearly scaled, noise-adapted spectrograms, i.e., sonograms, which help to distinguish weak signal energy from stationary background noise. Four single-trace sonograms per mini-array can be combined into supersonograms, since the array aperture is small and sonograms suppress differences of local site noise, allowing an analyst to check array-wide signal coherence quickly. In this paper, we present the supersonograms and the software on the basis of a dataset from a creeping, inhabited landslide in Austria where the same station layout is used as in an OSI. Detected signals are fracture processes in the sedimentary landslide, i.e., slidequakes, with $\hbox{M}_{\rm L}\,{-0.5} \,\hbox{\,to}\,{-2.5}$ between July 2009 and July 2011. These signals are comparable in magnitude and duration to expected weak UNE aftershocks. 相似文献
3.
封闭爆炸发生后常常产生大量的余震事件，本文对3次爆炸余震进行了分析和研究. 结果显示，余震波形持时很短, 70％以上的余震波形持时在2～7 s之间，持时频度衰减指数约为-1.6. 幂函数模型较好地描述了余震序列频度的整体变化特征, 爆炸后约两星期内，余震序列的频度衰减较快，衰减指数约为-1.0. 早期余震以群发式为主，后期余震以单发式为主. 对于同强度的爆炸, 因介质和地质构造的差异产生的余震数量相差几倍； 对于一次里氏震级为5.5级的爆炸，爆炸后约一个月内, 余震事件频度就接近了本底，此后仍有少量的余震发生. 相似文献
4.
IntroductionSeismologistsbeganaftershocksequenceinvestigationasearlyasendofthe19thcentury.Theaftershockoccurrencefrequencyhasdifferentmodels,whichincludepowerfunctiondecaymodel(Omori,1894),hyperboladecaymodel(Utsu,1961).Mogi(1962)presentedthattheafter-shockoccurrencefrequencydecayedwithdifferentprinciplesduringdifferenttimephasesaftermainshocks.Henceforthseismologistshavestudiedalargenumberofaftershocksequencesbasedonthesemodels.Chineseseismologistsstudiedthetemporal-spatialcharacteristicsof… 相似文献
5.
本文针对2008年5月12日四川汶川MW7.9地震后的余震目录,采用2004年Shcherbakov和Turcotte提出的最大余震震级推断法,给出了最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,采用现有的余震数据,在大震级区间可能存在一定数量的余震缺失,这造成了余震数据与Gutenberg-Richter定律曲线在大震级区间的差异,导致推断的最大余震震级与使用目录中的最大余震震级存在明显差异。利用震级与断层长度或地表破裂长度之间的经验关系可以看出,由灌县—江油断裂的破裂尺度得到的震级与推断最大余震震级基本一致。根据前人给出的断层摩擦失稳时间模型和Brune近断层质点运动模型,本文进一步探讨了汶川地震北川—映秀断裂对灌县—江油断裂的触发作用,认为北川—映秀断裂破裂所辐射出的S波可以在短时间内使得灌县—江油断裂发生失稳,进而产生宏观破裂并形成地震,因此由灌县—江油断裂破裂形成的地震可能为汶川地震的最大余震。 相似文献
6.
中强地震余震序列地震目录编目是否完备、 震源参数是否准确,直接影响余震序列特征分析、 震后趋势快速判断和强余震预测等研究结果的科学性和可靠性. 2013年7月22日甘肃岷县-漳县MS6.6地震余震序列目录中存在较多单台记录地震事件,地震观测报告仅给出其震级,而未给出震中位置. 由于余震波形间的相互交叠干扰,使得余震最大振幅的测量误差较大,造成地震观测报告给出的单台事件震级误差较大. 精确估计单台记录地震事件的震中和震级,能够补充完善现有地震目录,提高地震目录的完备性. 本文对单台记录地震事件震中和震级的估计不仅限于单个台站,而是通过分析区域台网中多个台站的波形记录实现. 首先以余震序列中震级较大、 波形记录信噪比较高的地震波形作为模板,使用波形互相关震相检测技术,检测单台记录的地震事件在多个台站的震相到时. 如果能在4个以上台站检测到震相,则利用测震台网常用的HYPOSAT方法估计其震中位置,并利用多个台站记录波形与模板地震的振幅比估计其震级. 之后计算主震发生后不同时间的最小完备性震级,并通过线性拟合得到最小完备性震级随时间变化的表达式,以分析此地震余震序列的目录完备性. 经过计算共得到253个单台记录地震事件的震级和其中177个事件的震中位置,其震中空间分布范围与余震序列中其它地震分布范围基本一致. 震级复测以及与人工拾取震相到时误差对比表明,该方法所得震相检测和震级估计结果具有较好的可靠性. 主震及最大余震发生后的短时间内,有较多数量单台事件的目录所给出的震级偏低,分析认为可能受主震与较大余震后续震相以及余震间相互干扰所致. 主震发生0.02—0.3天内,其余震序列最小完备性震级随时间的对数呈线性下降,在0.3天后最小完备性震级稳定在ML1.1左右. 相似文献
7.
In seismology according to Båth’s well-known law, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock is on average by unity lower than the magnitude of the main shock. At the same time, most of the strongest aftershocks typically occur within a few hours after the main shock. From the practical standpoint, this activity is quite naturally perceived as a direct continuation of the main earthquake. The subsequent strong aftershocks occur against the rarer background shocks, are less expected, and therefore constitute a separate hazard. The average difference in magnitudes between the main shock and the strongest aftershock that occurs a certain time after the main shock gradually increases. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the magnitudes of the strongest future aftershock at the successive instants of time after the main shock without taking into account the information about the aftershocks that have already occurred before a given time. For these estimates, we construct the theoretical distributions whose shape proves to be independent of time, whereas the time dependence of the shift in the magnitude proves to be known a priori. The predetermination of these dependences at the moment of the strong earthquake gives us grounds to characterize the constructed theoretical model as Båth’s dynamic law. 相似文献
8.
The current calibration function used in calculating the magnitude of natural earthquakes within 5km is a constant; a fact that causes several serious difficulties for the calculation of the magnitude of small and shallow-focus earthquakes. According to the attenuation law of explosions and the propagation theory of elastic waves, the calibration function is calculated for near field quakes from 0kin to 5kin. Magnitudes of two aftershock sequences are calculated. The magnitudes of most explosion earthquakes are small, ranging mainly from magnitude -0.5 to 1.0. The M-t chart of the explosive aftershocks is completely different from that of strong earthquake aftershocks. It not only shows positive columnar lines indieatJng large magnitudes but also short negative columnar lines indicating small magnitudes. 相似文献
9.
研究我国东部9次余震序列的总体特征得到:余震频度符合 n=n1t-h关系;频度和强度随时间衰减较慢;最大地震后3、4天内发生的余震所勾划的余震区常常比最终余震区小;多数余震分布在地壳中5至10公里的深度上.一些强余震前的中小余震时空分布有下述特征:（1）强余震前几天至十几天,余震序列的频度偏离正常衰减值;（2）强余震前有中小余震震中向下一次强余震的震中附近扩展或形成空区的现象;（3）强余震前震级序列出现缺震现象;（4）余震序列有准周期性.上述特性预示其后将发生强余震,同时表明强余震有类似于大地震的孕震过程.种种现象还表明余震序列在时间和空间上可能是由主震的直接余震和强余震的次级余震相互叠加所组成的.最后将某些特性和岩石试验结果进行了比较和讨论. 相似文献
10.
本文介绍了余震危险性概率分析的概念,完整列出其相关公式的解析表达式并阐述了余震危险性概率分析的具体方法。以2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震为例,首先,求得该地震余震序列的相关参数,结果显示:九寨沟MS7.0地震余震序列理论最大余震震级约为ML5.3;b值约为0.784 1,明显低于中国西南地区同类型的其它地震,表明九寨沟地震余震区应力水平相对较高;p值约为1.109 7,明显高于中国西南地区同类型的其它地震,表明九寨沟地震余震序列随时间衰减较快。其次,计算此次地震余震与主震释放能量的比例关系,结果显示:在九寨沟MS7.0地震事件中,截止到10月22日约99.69%的能量为主震所释放,0.31%的能量为余震所释放。最后,利用九寨沟MS7.0余震序列参数结果并结合衰减关系,分别计算了主震后0—1天、1—10天、10—30天和90—100天内不同断层距内不同水平的峰值加速度和峰值速度的超越概率,结果显示:随着断层距增加,在相同时间间隔内超越概率的值呈下降趋势;在震后第一天内余震危险性最高,随着震后时间增加,相应的超越概率值呈现出明显下降趋势,表明九寨沟MS7.0地震余震危险性主要来自早期余震。本文的相关成果可以为震后地震危险性分析提供参考,并为短时间内应急救援及灾后重建提供辅助决策意见。 相似文献
11.
The aftershock activity of the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake Sequence shows an obvious segmented feature. Most of the large aftershocks were distributed in the north and south parts of the aftershock zone. Thrusting was dominant with a small amount of strike-slip component in the south part. The aftershock activity decayed gradually, presenting the sequence features of a mainshock-aftershock pattern. The north part was the ending area of the maiushock fracture where strike-slipping was dominant, showing an obvious swarm feature. Therefore it became the major area for large aftershocks. The modulation of the earth tide on aftershock activity is remarkable; most large aftershocks occur during the period of flood and neap tide. The time period around 16:00 was the dominant occurring time for large aftershocks. The p-value, a parameter of modified Omori formula, increases gradually with time, and reaches about 1 at the end. Based on previous study, the sequence patterns, magnitude of maximum aftershock, as well as the duration of aftershock activity has been discussed. The primary results also show that the magnitude difference between the maiushockand the maximum aftershock is proportional to the rupture size of the maiushock for huge earthquakes of about Ms8.0. This means that when the magnitudes of the earthquakes are nearly the same, large rupture size corresponds to sufficient energy release. 相似文献
12.
A version of the restricted trigger model is used to analyse the temporal behaviour of some aftershock sequences. The conditional
intensity function of the model is similar to that of the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (ETAS) model with the restriction
that only the aftershocks of magnitude bigger than or equal to some threshold Mtr can trigger secondary events. For this reason we have named the model Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (RETAS)
model. Varying the triggering threshold we examine the variants of the RETAS model which range from the Modified Omori Formula
(MOF) to the ETAS model, including such models as limit cases. In this way we have a quite large set of models in which to
seek the model that fits best an aftershock sequence bringing out the specific features of the seismotectonic region struck
by the crisis. We have applied the RETAS model to the analysis of two aftershock sequences: The first is formed by the events
which followed the strong earthquake of M=7.8 which occurred in Kresna, SW Bulgaria, in 1904. The second includes three main shocks and a large swarm of minor shocks
following the quake of 26 September 1997 in the Umbria-Marche region, central Italy. The MOF provides the best fit to the
sequence in Kresna; that leads to the thought that just the stress field changes due to the very strong main shock generate
the whole sequence. On the contrary, the complex behaviour of the seismic sequence in Umbria-Marche appears when we make the
threshold magnitude vary. Setting the cut-off magnitude M0=2.9 the best fit is provided by the ETAS model, while if we raise the threshold magnitude M0=3.6 and set Mtr=5.0, the RETAS model turns out to be the best model. In fact, observing the time distribution of this reduced data set, it
appears more evident that especially the strong secondary events are followed by a cluster of aftershocks. 相似文献
13.
Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management. 相似文献
14.
新疆近期两次地震序列的时间信息维特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
蒋海昆 《地震地磁观测与研究》1992,13(2):1-7
本文以新疆两次中强地震的余震序列为例,探讨地震序列不均勻时间分布的分形特征。对其信息维的测算表明,无标度区范围基本稳定,同一时间段内信息维数随震级下限的升高略有降低;而对相同震级下限的样本群而言,不同时段的信息维数具有一定的差异。通常是强余震活动结束之后的信息维数略高于强余震活动期间的信息维数。这一特点对大震后地震趋势的合理估计具有积极意义。 相似文献
15.
This paper presents a proposed method of aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) similar to conventional ‘mainshock’ PSHA in that it estimates the likelihoods of ground motion intensity (in terms of peak ground accelerations, spectral accelerations or other ground motion intensity measures) due to aftershocks following a mainshock occurrence. This proposed methodology differs from the conventional mainshock PSHA in that mainshock occurrence rates remain constant for a conventional (homogeneous Poisson) earthquake occurrence model, whereas aftershock occurrence rates decrease with increased elapsed time from the initial occurrence of the mainshock. In addition, the aftershock ground motion hazard at a site depends on the magnitude and location of the causative mainshock, and the location of aftershocks is limited to an aftershock zone, which is also dependent on the location and magnitude of the initial mainshock. APSHA is useful for post‐earthquake safety evaluation where there is a need to quantify the rates of occurrence of ground motions caused by aftershocks following the initial rupture. This knowledge will permit, for example, more informed decisions to be made for building tagging and entry of damaged buildings for rescue, repair or normal occupancy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
To consider the influence of aftershocks in engineering design, the correlations between main shocks and aftershocks should be examined, and an aftershock simulation method with main shock ground motions needs to be developed. In this study, the data on the sequences of main shock-aftershock ground motions and other related parameters were collected. Using these data, correlations between the magnitude, frequency, duration and energy of the main shock-aftershock ground motions were investigated. The results showed that the magnitude of the aftershock can be larger than that of the main shock. The shapes of the Fourier amplitude spectra of main shocks and aftershocks were similar; however, the predominant frequency and high-frequency components of the aftershock tended to be larger. Considering the magnitude difference between the main shock and the aftershock, the correlation of durations was explored. Additionally, a new concept, the duration ratio, was defined to describe the concentration of seismic energy release, and main shock energy was strongly positively correlated with the energy attenuated during the main shock-aftershock sequence. Finally, based on these results regarding correlation, an aftershock synthesis using recorded main shock ground motions was constructed with the trigonometric series method for seismic design, and some examples are given to analyze the rationality of this synthetic method.
相似文献17.
针对九寨沟MS7.0地震之后不同时间段的余震序列目录,利用推定最大余震震级,给出了实际最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,推定最大余震震级随主震后时间尺度的延长而趋于稳定,且该值与实际发生的最大余震的震级一致。需要强调的是,就九寨沟地震序列而言,当余震数据较为完备时,采用主震后较短时间段内（1～2天）的余震目录就可以较准确地估算出主震区域内可能发生的最大余震震级。实际上,主震后12h（0.5天）的余震数据已完全可以给出最大余震震级的有效下限。此外,计算中我们采用了里氏震级ML和面波震级MS的余震目录,结果显示,2种震级类型目录的估算结果完全一致,表明利用推定最大余震震级估算实际最大余震震级的方法不受震级类型的影响。据此,该最大余震震级快速评估方法可进一步推广应用于我国大陆地区中强震后强余震灾害分析评估中。目前的拟合技术也显示出随着测震技术的不断进步以及余震识别能力的提高,快速评估方法可以在主震后短时间（<1天）内准确地预测可能发生的最大余震震级。 相似文献
18.
汶川8.0级地震序列及相关问题讨论 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
汶川8.0级地震序列具有明显的分段特性,较强余震分布于茂县、绵竹以南及平武以北。主破裂过程在中南段以逆冲为主,序列逐渐衰减,呈主余型的序列衰减特征;北段是汶川地震破裂过程的终止区域,主破裂过程在该区域以走滑为主,形成多震型的序列特征,也成为汶川序列较大余震的主体活动区域。序列较强余震活动明显受引潮力调制,大多数较强余震发生在固体潮大、小潮时段,并且16时前后是较强余震的优势发震时段。序列衰减系数p值随时间增加而逐渐增大,最终基本稳定在1附近变化。结合以往的研究,对序列类型及最大强余震震级、强余震活动持续时间等进行了初步讨论。初步的统计结果还显示,8级左右强震序列中主震与最大余震之间的震级差正比于主震破裂尺度,这意味着当震级大体接近时,较大的破裂尺度与较为充分的能量释放相对应 相似文献
19.
针对“时空传染型余震序列”（英文简称ETAS）模型在地震序列参数的早期特征和余震短期概率预测研究中的应用问题,重点考察了不同截止震级Mc选取对结果的影响.以甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震序列的震后1.677天内的早期阶段为例,考察了ETAS模型和修正的Omori-Utsu公式的适用性问题,发现ETAS模型AIC值在各截止震级Mc下均小于修正的Omori-Utsu公式的结果,表明其适用效果更好.设定Mc=ML1.0,1.1,…,2.5,分别考察了ETAS模型中α值和p值的稳定性,并与2013年芦山7.0级地震序列进行了对比.结果表明,Mc对α值的影响相对较小,p值影响较大.此外,对基于ETAS模型和“瘦化算法”的余震短期概率预测结果进行了N-test检验,结果表明Mc的设定对余震短期概率预测影响较大,对甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震,仅当Mc=ML1.0或ML1.1时可获得较好的预测结果.由此,在真正的“向前”的预测实践中,需要首先考察不同的Mc下的余震预测效果. 相似文献
20.
1978年5月18日海城地震(Ms=6.0)发生在1975年2月4日海城破坏性地震(Ms=7.3)余震区的空区内.1975年2月4日海城7.3级强震发生之后,其余震(Ms2.0)的月频度衰减异常缓慢(P=0.73),而6级地震发生之后 P 值明显增大,即6级地震发生在月频度衰减曲线的拐点上.这次6级地震之前不同于7.3级强震前,在震源区没有丰富的前震活动.6级地震是7.3级强震的最大余震,作者认为它是区域应力在未曾充分破裂的空区内再次集中积累而发生的余震. 相似文献