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1.
He Jun Yang Xiao-Hua Li Jian-Qiang Jin Ju-Liang Wei Yi-Ming Chen Xiao-Juan 《Natural Hazards》2014,75(2):199-217
Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis.
相似文献2.
Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River basin,China 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Jun He Xiao-Hua Yang Jian-Qiang Li Ju-Liang Jin Yi-Ming Wei Xiao-Juan Chen 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):199-217
Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis. 相似文献
3.
4.
In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity model and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) were combined for drought identification on the Loess Plateau. The calibration method of climatic characteristic (K j ) in PDSI was improved. Land cover datasets in 1980 and 2005 were used to drive the model. The driest periods over the past four decades of the study region emerged in 1976–1982, 1997–2001 and 2003–2008. Regardless of ranking by duration, spatial extent or severity, most of the prominent droughts occurred in the detected driest periods. The drought severity and area over the upper reaches of the Yellow River were higher than other domains. A total of 53 droughts with area greater than the 25,000 km2 threshold were identified with durations longer than 3 months using clustering algorithm. Most regions of the study area exhibited spatially increasing trends in drought severity and frequency, indicating that the Loess Plateau has experienced apparent drying and warming processes between 1971 and 2010. 相似文献
5.
Evaluation of CHIRPS and its application for drought monitoring over the Haihe River Basin,China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Feng Gao Yuhu Zhang Xiulin Ren Yunjun Yao Zengchao Hao Wanyuan Cai 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):155-178
To establish the drought index objectively and reasonably and evaluate the hydrological drought accurately, firstly, the optimal distribution was selected from nine distributions (normal, lognormal, exponential, gamma, general extreme value, inverse Gaussian, logistic, log-logistic and Weibull), then the Optimal Standardized Streamflow Index (OSSI) was calculated based on the optimal distribution, and last, the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrological drought based on the OSSI series was investigated through the monthly streamflow data of seven hydrological stations during the period 1961–2011 in Luanhe River basin, China. Results suggest: (1) the general extreme value and log-logistic distributions performed prominently in fitting the monthly streamflow of Luanhe River basin. (2) The main periods of hydrological drought in Luanhe River basin were 148–169, 75–80, 42–45, 14–19 and 8–9 months. (3) The hydrological drought had an aggravating trend over the past 51 year and with the increase in timescale, the aggravating trend was more serious. (4) The lower the drought grade was, the broader the coverage area. As for the Luanhe River basin, the whole basin suffered the mild and more serious drought, while the severe and more serious drought only cover some areas. (5) With the increase in time step, the frequency distribution of mild droughts across the basin tended to be concentrated, the frequency of extreme droughts in middle and upper reaches tended to increase and the frequency in downstream tends to decrease. This research can provide powerful references for water resources planning and management and drought mitigation. 相似文献
6.
Severity–duration–frequency (SDF) curves are very useful in the analysis of drought phenomena. Station-level information obtained from SDF curves can be interpolated to obtain severity maps for fixed return period, in order to jointly analyse the spatial variability of drought characteristics (e.g. severity, duration and frequency). This approach is limited because the severity is usually quantified through indices that use hydrological and meteorological data, depending on the type of requirements. Therefore, drought indices can only reflect hydrological conditions, but are unable to quantify economic losses associated with droughts. In other words, SDF curves do not allow effective quantification of the impact expected with a certain return period. This paper proposes the methodology drought economic risk assessment (DERA) as an approach that emphasizes the importance of the relationship between a generic drought index (which quantifies water deficit) and the economic impact of the failure to meet water demand. Using integrated SDF curves, this relationship enables drought severity and corresponding impacts to be mapped. This procedure was applied to agricultural droughts (sunflower crop) in Umbria Region (central Italy). The agricultural drought impact variable was identified by sunflower yield (Y); the economic impact variable by net benefit depletion (EL); and the drought index by Relative Severity Index (RSI), which is quantifiable by a soil–water balance model. The relationships Y = g(RSI) and EL = f(Y) were specifically determined. Using DERA, it was possible to derive curves for SDF, impact–duration–frequency, and economic losses–duration–frequency (ELDF), which were then used to map severity, impact and economic losses for the assigned return period and duration. From the ELDF curves, further information was obtained by mapping critical drought durations for the assigned return period and economic loss threshold. The case study supports the potential of the proposed approach, both in the planning and real-time management of drought effects. 相似文献
7.
Assessing Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study 总被引：14，自引：6，他引：14
Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigatedcropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management. 相似文献
8.
利用黄河流域160个气象站1961-2010年逐日综合气象干旱指数(CI)指数, 对比分析两种用逐日CI指数判断月干旱过程的方法. 结果表明: 对重大干旱事件个例来说, 两种方法都能大体描述事件的月干旱过程, 但干旱的强度和范围有所不同. 从干旱发生的范围来看, 两种结果的差别较小, 方法I的识别结果范围更大、更连续, 特别是对青海旱情的判断常常比实际范围大;而方法II的识别结果范围稍小, 大体上能反应干旱的整体范围, 但有时也偶尔会遗漏小部分旱区;从干旱发生的强度来看, 方法I对干旱事实的描述偏轻, 而方法II以重-特旱为主, 与实际情况更相符. 从对黄河流域近50 a月干旱频率的分析结果来看, 两种方法一致表明黄河流域分界线以西的地区常年不容易发生干旱, 而对于分界线以东地区, 两种方法的统计结果有较大差异. 方法I的结果表明, 分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率较大, 其中, 轻旱的月发生频率最大, 其次为中旱, 而重旱和特旱的发生频率很小;方法II的结果表明, 分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率在60%~80%左右, 其中重旱的月发生频率最大, 其次为中旱, 轻旱和特旱的发生频率很小. 总体来说, 方法II对黄河流域月干旱情况的评估结果与干旱实际情况更一致. 相似文献
9.
Droughts in the southeast USA have been linked to economic losses and intractable water conflicts. The region has witnessed several severe droughts events during the period from 1901 to 2005. In this study, spatiotemporal variability in meteorological drought characteristics in the southeast were analyzed using two different datasets by the means of standard precipitation index and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index for the period 1901–2005 for agricultural and non-agricultural seasons. The study periods were divided into three epochs 1901–1935, 1936–1970, and 1971–2005 and drought characteristics, in terms of severity, frequency, number, and trends were analyzed. Additionally, areal extent, drought severities and return periods associated with three severe drought years 1904, 1954, and 2000 were analyzed. Except for the state of Florida, results indicate decrease in drought severity during the recent epoch of 1970–2005 in the study domain. Trend analysis confirms that the study domain has become wetter over the last 105 years. Wetting trends were more prominent in the agricultural season. Additionally, droughts seem to have migrated from the western part of the study area encompassing the states of Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi to the Florida panhandle region during the recent epoch. Droughts exhibited higher spatiotemporal variability during the agricultural season compared to the non-agricultural seasons. Results also showed that early to mid-1950s experienced some of the most severe droughts in the study domain. Some of the drought events, such as the drought of 1954 and 2000, have been equivalent to a 100-year drought event in the southeast. The results from this study form the benchmark for studying the impacts of future climate change projections on meteorological droughts in the southeast. 相似文献
10.
以鄱阳湖流域为研究区, 基于2011—2020年22个墒情站的逐日地面墒情监测数据、1956—2020年49个雨量站的日降雨数据及2016—2019年墒情站所在灌区的气象数据, 采用考虑植被生理状态的土壤水分亏缺指数(SWDI)表征农业干旱, 分析不同尺度下墒情、包气带缺水量和降水量的时空分布, 评估SWDI在鄱阳湖流域农业干旱监测中的适用性, 揭示该流域农业干旱时空演变特征及其对气象干旱的响应规律, 初步探讨土壤质地与农业干旱强度的相关性。结果表明: ① SWDI对鄱阳湖流域农业干旱诊断具有较好的适用性; ②近10 a该流域农业干旱呈显著加重趋势, 其中2019—2020年发生流域性重度农业干旱, 且夏、秋、冬连旱, 是近10 a的主导季节性农业干旱, 对水稻、油菜等粮食产量影响显著; ③相较于气象干旱, 农业干旱发生、结束时间分别平均约晚2.5周和3周, 历时长10.1周, 频次更低, 干旱等级更小; ④砂土持水性最差, 易发生特大农业干旱, 黏土、黏壤土保水性最好, 轻旱和中旱发生概率较大, 壤土、砂壤土和壤砂土则介于二者之间。 相似文献
11.
Climate change influences the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which have a strong impact on agroecosystems. At regional scale, agroecosystems are diverse in terms of ecological environment and farming practice, intrinsic properties that influence their vulnerability to such events. The link between extreme weather events and the vulnerability of agroecosystems can be conceptualized by experts, including farmers, advisers, and agricultural scientists. However, their knowledge is not easily taken into account in models. A transdisciplinary modeling approach was developed to map the vulnerability of agroecosystems based on expert knowledge using a combination of a fuzzy inference system and geographical information system. The developed approach was applied to assess the vulnerability of two major Belgian agroecosysems: (i) the vulnerability of cropland to heavy rain, and (ii) the vulnerability of grassland to drought. The approach is flexible and identifies the various factors underlying the vulnerability and provides a useful tool to study potential sources of adaptation and resilience within agricultural systems. 相似文献
12.
Motalleb Byzedi Bahram Saghafian Khosro Mohammadi Maaroof Siosemarde 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(6):2955-2972
Droughts are complex natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economical are the most distinguished types. Hydrological drought includes streamflow and groundwater droughts. In this paper, streamflow drought was analyzed using the method of truncation level (at 70 % level) by daily discharges at 54 stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series of drought deficit volume and duration. 35 factors such as physiographic, climatic, geologic and vegetation were studied to carry out the regional analysis. According to conclusions of factor analysis, the six most effective factors include watershed area, the sum rain from December to February, the percentage of area with NDVI <0.1, the percentage of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation, explained 89.2 % of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. The suitable multivariate regression models were ascertained and evaluated for hydrological drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of models was 0.01. The conclusion showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor that has a high correlation with drought deficit volume. Moreover, drought duration was not a suitable index for regional analysis. 相似文献
13.
Bulgarian agriculture is affected by droughts and, likely, by climate change. Thus, aiming at assessing its vulnerability, this study includes a general characterization of climate variability in eight selected locations, both in northern and southern Bulgaria. Trend tests were applied to monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature and to the Standardized Precipitation Index with two-month time step (SPI-2) relative to the period of 1951–2004. Negative trends were identified for precipitation and SPI-2 at various locations, mainly in the Thrace Plain, indicating that dryness is likely to be increasing in Bulgaria. The vulnerability of rainfed maize systems to drought was studied using the previously calibrated WinISAREG model and the Stewart’s yield model to compute both the relative yield decrease (RYD) due to water stress and the corresponding net irrigation required to overcome those losses. Results identified a strong relation between SPI-2 for July–August (SPI-2July–Aug) and RYD. Results also show that yield losses are higher when the soils have a smaller soil water holding capacity. For the various regions under study, thresholds for RYD were defined considering the related economic impacts and the influence of soil characteristics on the vulnerability of the rainfed maize systems. Finally, to support drought risk management, SPI-2July–Aug thresholds were developed to be used as indicators of the economic risk of rainfed maize for various climate regions and soil groups in Bulgaria. 相似文献
14.
This study analyses regional drought characteristics (frequency, severity, and persistence) of meteorological droughts occurred in the northwestern parts falling under arid and semiarid regions of India with mean annual rainfall ranging between 100 and 900 mm. A drought is defined as a season or a year with rainfall less than 75% of corresponding mean at a place. Long-term monthly rainfall records (1901–2013) of 90 districts of north-west India located in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat are used in the analysis. The percentage departure of seasonal rainfall from long-term average rainfall has been used for identification of onset, termination, and quantification of drought severity. The average frequency varied from once every 3–4 years. The westerly districts have an average drought return period of 3 years, while districts lying toward the east had droughts once every 4 years. Only four of the 90 districts in the study area experienced droughts once every 5 years. Persistent droughts of 2, 3, and 4 year duration occurred widely. Severe droughts occurred in the years 1904, 1905, 1911, 1918, 1931, 1939, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1993, and 2002, with an average frequency of severe drought events of one in 10 years. The analysis presented in this paper improves understanding of the regional drought characteristics and will inform drought mitigations and strategies in these arid and semiarid areas. 相似文献
15.
从趋势性、滞后性及相关性三方面,对2002—2013年间GRACE重力卫星反演的长江上游与中游陆地水储量与模型模拟土壤含水量、实测降水和实测径流数据进行了对比分析,并从干旱强度及发展时间两方面评估了标准化陆地水储量指数SWSI、标准化降水指数SPI、标准化径流指数SRI和标准化土壤含水量指数SSMI对区域性干旱的表征能力.结果表明:长江上游地区陆地水储量与降水、径流和土壤水蓄量均无显著变化,而中游地区陆地水储量则与水库蓄量同样具有显著性增加,反映人类活动对中游地区陆地水储量变化有很大影响;各指标指示的各等级干旱月份数量基本相当,但各指标反映的特旱具体月份有较大差别,基于GRACE数据构建的SWSI指标对特大干旱的指示性不好;对比各指标对上游与中游地区干旱事件发展时间,体现出水文干旱、农业干旱对气象干旱存在一定的迟滞关系. 相似文献
16.
Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh 总被引：14，自引：8，他引：6
Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh, very little attention has been so far paid to the mitigation and preparedness
of droughts. This article presents a method for spatial assessment of drought risk in Bangladesh. A conceptual framework,
which emphasizes the combined role of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used for the study. Standardized precipitation
index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extents of drought hazards in different time steps. The key social
and physical factors that define drought vulnerability in the context of Bangladesh are identified and corresponding thematic
maps in district level are prepared. Composite drought vulnerability map is developed through the integration of those thematic
maps. The risk is computed as the product of the hazard and vulnerability. The result shows that droughts pose highest risk
to the northern and northwestern districts of Bangladesh. 相似文献
17.
An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dimension of Drought Vulnerability in Turkey Using the Standardized Precipitation Index 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Turkey in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during years of late 1980s and the trend continued in the late 1990s. The countrys agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in Turkey have been investigated from vulnerability concept. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used to detail geographical variations in the drought vulnerability based on frequency and severity of drought events at multiple time steps. Critical (threshold) rainfall values were derived for each station at multiple-time steps in varying drought categories to determine least amount of rainfall required to avoid from drought initiation. The study found that drought vulnerability portrays a very diverse but consistent picture with varying time steps. At regional scale, south-eastern and eastern Anatolia are characterized with moderate droughts at shorter time steps, while the occurrence of severe droughts at shorter time steps is observed at non-coastal parts of the country. A similar picture was observed with very severe droughts. The critical (threshold) values exhibited rising numbers during the growing season at 3-month step in the South-eastern Anatolia, which might have significant consequences considering presence of large irrigation projects under-development in the region. In general, rainfall amounts required for non-drought conditions decrease from the coastal parts toward the interiors with increasing time steps. 相似文献
18.
This article investigates whether the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived global terrestrial Drought Severity Index (DSI) had the capability of detecting regional drought over subtropical southwestern China. Monthly, remotely sensed DSI data with 0.05° spatial resolution were used to characterize the extent, duration, and severity of drought from 2000 to 2010. We reported that southwestern China suffered from incipient to extreme droughts from November 2009 to March 2010 (referred to as the “drought period”). The area affected by drought occupied approximately 74 % of the total area of the study region, in which a moderate drought, severe drought, and an extreme drought accounted for 20, 12.7, and 13.2 % of the total area, respectively; particularly in March 2010, droughts of severe and extreme intensity covered the largest areas of drought, which were 16.1 and 18.6 %, respectively. Spatially, eastern Yunnan, western Guizhou, and Guangxi suffered from persistent droughts whose intensities ranged from mild to extreme during the drought period. Pearson’s correlation analyses were performed between DSI and the in situ meteorological station-based Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for validating the monitoring results of the DSI. The results showed that the DSI corresponded favorably with the time scales of the SPI; meanwhile, the DSI showed its highest correlation (mean: r = 0.58) with a three-month SPI. Furthermore, similar spatial patterns and temporal variations were found between the DSI and the three-month SPI, as well as the agro-meteorological drought observation data, when monitoring drought. Our analysis suggests that the DSI can be used for near-real-time drought monitoring with fine resolution across subtropical southwestern China, or other similar regions, based solely on MODIS-derived evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data. 相似文献
19.
Due to the complex characteristics of drought, drought risk needs to be quantified by combining drought vulnerability and drought hazard. Recently, the major focus in drought vulnerability has been on how to calculate the weights of indicators to comprehensively quantify drought risk. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA), a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and the equal-weighting method (EWM) were applied to objectively determine the weights for drought vulnerability assessment in Chungcheong Province, located in the west-central part of South Korea. The PCA provided larger weights for agricultural and industrial factors, whereas the GMM computed larger weights for agricultural factors than did the EWM. The drought risk was assessed by combining the drought vulnerability index (DVI) and the drought hazard index (DHI). Based on the DVI, the most vulnerable region was CCN9 in the northwestern part of the province, whereas the most drought-prone region based on the DHI was CCN12 in the southwest. Considering both DVI and DHI, the regions with the highest risk were CCN12 and CCN10 in the southern part of the province. Using the proposed PCA and GMM, we validated drought vulnerability using objective weighting methods and assessed comprehensive drought risk considering both meteorological hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability.
相似文献