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物候对全球变暖响应的研究综述 总被引：73，自引：4，他引：73
近100年来，尤其是在最近20多年，全球平均表面温度出现了显著上升，全球变暖已成为全球关注的重要问题。物候现象与气候等环境因素息息相关，物候对全球变暖的响应研究正在成为物候研究的一个新的热点领域，NDVI正日益成为植被对气候响应研究的重要手段。概述了当前物候对全球变暖响应研究的主要进展。基于实地动植物等物候观测和遥感监测的大量研究表明，近期动植物等物候正发生着显著变化：北半球中高纬度地区植被生长季延长、植物提早开花、昆虫提早出现、鸟类提早产蛋以及冰川退缩、永冻土带融化、江河湖泊结冰推迟而融化提早等，与气候变暖有密切关系，是对全球变暖的明显响应。目前国内的许多研究者在物候对气候变暖响应方面做了一些工作，但与国际研究进展相比，还有许多研究工作有待于进一步开展。 相似文献
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全球气候变化的几个关键问题辨析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
基于对全球气候变化事实与国家气候变化行动的分析,就当前全球气候变化科学认识和行动中的几个关键问题的不同观点与争论进行了辨析。指出：①应以比较确定的科学事实和“共同但有区别的责任”作为应对气候变化的出发点;②全球增温的幅度被高估了;③近百年全球变暖主要归因于人类活动的论断科学证据不足;④全球变暖的影响有利有弊,具体问题需具体分析;⑤气候预估不等于气候预测,气候预测尚待时日,气候预估的不确定性也非常大;⑥当前应对全球变暖的行动应采取“适应为主、减缓为辅”的战略。 相似文献
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从吉林省安图县案例看人类对全球变化适应的行为心理学研究 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
应用行为心理学理论和方法,从气候变暖的环境“刺激”到农业种植行为改变的“反应（响应行为）”的全部适应行为过程,涉及刺激、认知、辨识、选择、反馈等环节,需要解决的关键科学问题包括：①人类如何感知和辨识全球变暖及其影响;②哪些因素怎样影响人类适应行为的发生;③人类适应行为的评价与反馈机制。对安图县实例的分析可以看出,一方面很好地验证了该研究思路;另一方面却也反映出,此类研究需要建立在一系列对典型区域进行个案取证调查的实证研究基础上。 相似文献
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气候变化对半干旱雨养农业区春小麦生长的影响 总被引：20，自引：5，他引：15
利用甘肃省定西农业气象观测站1986—2004年的观测资料,就气候变化对黄土高原半干旱雨养农业区春小麦生长的影响进行了初步探讨。结果表明,近19年来该地区气候变化呈现暖干化趋势,春小麦对气候变化的响应表现在生长季提前、生长期缩短、产量下降。相关分析也显示,降水量对春小麦生长的影响程度要高于温度。在春小麦整个生长发育过程中,其阶段生长和产量对气候变化的响应不完全一致：气候变化使该地区春小麦出苗期、拔节期、抽穗期和成熟期的出现时间均提前,而乳熟期出现时间推迟,导致播种—出苗期的营养生长阶段缩短、出苗—拔节期的营养生长阶段延长、拔节—抽穗期的生殖生长阶段缩短,抽穗—乳熟期的生殖生长阶段延长,乳熟—成熟期的生殖生长阶段缩短,最终造成全生长期缩短。出苗—拔节期、抽穗—乳熟期降水量减少对春小麦产量下降有显著的正效应（P<0.05）,拔节—抽穗期的增温对产量有极显著的负影响（P<0.01）。预计随着未来全球气候进一步的变暖和半干旱区降水量的减少,将会更加严重影响春小麦的生长发育。 相似文献
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Russell S. Crosbie James L. McCallum Glen R. Walker Francis H. S. Chiew 《Hydrogeology Journal》2012,20(2):245-261
In semi-arid areas, episodic recharge can form a significant part of overall recharge, dependant upon infrequent rainfall events. With climate change projections suggesting changes in future rainfall magnitude and intensity, groundwater recharge in semi-arid areas is likely to be affected disproportionately by climate change. This study sought to investigate projected changes in episodic recharge in arid areas of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, using three global warming scenarios from 15 different global climate models (GCMs) for a 2030 climate. Two metrics were used to investigate episodic recharge: at the annual scale the coefficient of variation was used, and at the daily scale the proportion of recharge in the highest 1% of daily recharge. The metrics were proportional to each other but were inconclusive as to whether episodic recharge was to increase or decrease in this environment; this is not a surprising result considering the spread in recharge projections from the 45 scenarios. The results showed that the change in the low probability of exceedance rainfall events was a better predictor of the change in total recharge than the change in total rainfall, which has implications for the selection of GCMs used in impact studies and the way GCM results are downscaled. 相似文献
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全球气候增暖对甘肃农作物生长影响的研究进展 总被引：16，自引：2，他引：14
系统总结了甘肃省科技攻关重大项目“甘肃干旱生态环境对全球气候变暖的响应研究”等3个课题的主要成果和研究进展。在揭示甘肃省现代气候变化基本特征是冬暖夏干的基础上,比较系统地综述了越冬作物（冬小麦、冬油菜）、喜凉作物（春小麦、马铃薯、胡麻）和喜温作物（玉米、棉花、酿酒葡萄）等8种主要农作物的生长发育、适生种植区高度和种植面积、产量和品质等对现代气候变化的响应特征。现代气候变化对甘肃农作物生长的影响非常突出,已对农作物安全生产与农业可持续发展构成了严重威胁。其研究结果为建立现代农业发展模式,旱作农业生产机制,农作物安全生产提供科学的指导意见。 相似文献
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国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。 相似文献
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Sharyn M. Hickey Stuart R. Phinn Nik J. Callow Kimberly P. Van Niel Jeff E. Hansen Carlos M. Duarte 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(5):1215-1226
Ecological (poleward) regime shifts are a predicted response to climate change and have been well documented in terrestrial and more recently ocean species. Coastal zones are amongst the most susceptible ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, yet studies particularly focused on mangroves are lacking. Recent studies have highlighted the critical ecosystem services mangroves provide, yet there is a lack of data on temporal global population response. This study tests the notion that mangroves are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent of the mangrove population. Our findings indicate that whilst temperature (land and air) have both increased across the analysed time periods, the data we located showed that mangroves were not consistently extending their latitudinal range across the globe. Mangroves, unlike other marine and terrestrial taxa, do not appear to be experiencing a poleward range expansion despite warming occurring at the present distributional limits. Understanding failure for mangroves to realise the global expansion facilitated by climate warming may require a focus on local constraints, including local anthropogenic pressures and impacts, oceanographic, hydrological, and topographical conditions. 相似文献
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Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
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Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
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Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
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Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
14.
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
15.
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
16.
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
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Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
18.
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
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Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Donald Scavia John C. Field Donald F. Boesch Robert W. Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R. Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A. Harwell Robert W. Howarth Curt Mason Denise J. Reed Thomas C. Royer Asbury H. Sallenger James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. 相似文献
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青藏高原气候变化若干前沿科学问题 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
在全球变化的背景下,青藏高原冰冻圈和大气圈正在发生快速变化,对“亚洲水塔”和“第三极”的生态环境带来深刻影响。研究并梳理了近年来青藏高原气候变化的若干前沿科学问题的研究进展,如高原极端气候事件变化及其与大气环流的关系;高原变暖放大效应及海拔依赖型变暖的物理机制;再分析资料在高原气候变化应用的适用性;气候模式在高原资料稀缺地区的模拟偏差特征及不确定性;以及不同升温阈值下高原气候变化的预估及其风险等。同时展望了高原气候变化研究的前沿问题和科学难点。认清高原气候变化研究的前沿科学问题,可为“一带一路”倡议顺利实施提供科学依据。 相似文献