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1.
Climate Change in the Subtropical Jetstream during 1950–2009   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A study of six decades(1950–2009) of reanalysis data reveals that the subtropical jetstream(STJ) of the Southern(Northern) Hemisphere between longitudes 0°E and 180°E has weakened(strengthened) during both the boreal winter(January,February) and summer(July, August) seasons. The temperature of the upper troposphere of the midlatitudes has a warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere. Correspondingly, the north–south temperature gradient in the upper troposphere has a decreasing trend in the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in the Northern Hemisphere, which affects the strength of the STJ through the thermal wind relation. We devised a method of isotach analysis in intervals of 0.1 m s-1in vertical sections of hemispheric mean winds to study the climate change in the STJ core wind speed, and also core height and latitude. We found that the upper tropospheric cooling of the Asian mid-latitudes has a role in the strengthening of the STJ over Asia, while throughout the rest of the globe the upper troposphere has a warming trend that weakens the STJ. Available studies show that the mid-latitude cooling of the upper troposphere over Asia is caused by anthropogenic aerosols(particularly sulphate aerosols) and the warming over the rest of the global mid-latitude upper troposphere is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

2.
The impact of the anomalous thawing of frozen soil in the late spring on the summer precipitation in China and its possible mechanism are analyzed in the context of the frozen soil thawing date data of the 50 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau, and the NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis data.Results show that the thawing dates of the Tibetan Plateau gradually become earlier from 1980 to 1999,which is consistent with the trend of global warming in the 20th century. Because differences in the thermal capacity and conductivity between frozen and unfrozen soils are larger, changes in the freezing/thawing process of soil may change the physical properties of the underlying surface, thus affecting exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the ground surface and air. The thermal state change of the plateau ground surface must lead to the thermal anomalies of the atmosphere over and around the plateau, and then further to the anomalies of the general atmospheric circulation. A possible mechanism for the impact of the thawing of the plateau on summer (July) precipitation may be as follows. When the frozen soil thaws early (late) in the plateau, the thermal capacity of the ground surface is large (small), and the thermal conductivity is small (large), therefore, the thermal exchanges between the ground surface and the air are weak (strong). The small (large) ground surface sensible and latent heat fluxes lead to a weak (strong) South Asian high, a weak (strong) West Pacific subtropical high and a little to south (north) of its normal position. Correspondingly, the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened) and precipitationin creases (decreases) in South China, while in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, the ascending motion and precipitation show the opposite trend.  相似文献   

3.
Predominantly in the context of Japan GMS-derived T_(BB) data,study is undertaken of therelationship between the winter thermal conditions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)andanomaly in Asian-Australian monsoons during northern summer.Evidence suggests that anti-correlation of cold air activity of East Asia with that of Mid Asia is responsible for the counterpartof the ground thermal characteristics anomaly on an interannual basis between the SW and NEQXP;the winter thermal pattern bears a closer correlativity with the subsequent summertimeAsian-Australian monsoons anomaly;as the thermal distribution is reversed,so are the convectionfeatures over North and South China,maritime continent,the NW and SW Pacific at tropical andequatorial latitudes,resulting in vast difference between East-Asian summer and Indonesian-NorthAustralian winter monsoons;the subtropical monsoon-associated rainbelt over the mid-lowerChangjiang basins exhibits the discrepancy in vigor and northerly shift timing.Besides,part of theresults has been further borne out through analysis of temperature and precipitation records of theeastern portion of the country in monsoon climate.  相似文献   

4.
Arctic sea ice loss and the associated enhanced warming has been related to midlatitude weather and climate changes through modulate meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation. However, contrasting lines of evidence result in low confidence in the influence of Arctic warming on midlatitude climate. This study examines the additional perspectives that palaeoclimate evidence provides on the decadal relationship between autumn sea ice extent(SIE) in the Barents–Kara(B–K) Seas and extrem...  相似文献   

5.
1. IntroductionObservations of surface air temperature indicatethat a significant global average warming has occurredduring the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) concludes that thereis new and stronger evidence that man has influencedthe climate. International negotiations have led to afirst step in combating climate change with the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, but further stepsare needed in …  相似文献   

6.
Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering(G4 test) and non-climate engineering(RCP4.5), the regional differences in the extreme high-temperature intensities in China during the implementation of climate engineering programs(2020 to 2069) and after the implementation of those programs(2070 to 2099) were analyzed using the Weibull Distribution Theory. The results are as follows.(1) The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering has not fundamentally changed the spatial variation of the intensity of extreme hightemperature events in different recurring periods in China. It was found that in both scenarios, the extreme hightemperature intensities were characterized by the spatial differentiations of low-temperature intensities on the QinghaiTibet Plateau, and high-temperature intensities in the eastern and northwestern region.(2) The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering in the two study periods could help mitigate the extreme high-temperature intensities with different recurrence periods in China, and the mitigation effects during the implementation period would be significantly higher than those after the implementation.(3) The comparison between the periods ranging from 2020 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under the proposed climate engineering scenarios suggests that there would be no strong rebounding of extreme high-temperatures following the implementation of climate engineering programs. Moreover, the mitigation effect of extreme high-temperature intensity during the implementation of climate engineering is significantly higher than that after the completion of climate engineering.(4) According to the comparison between the average temperature changes in China before and after the implementation of the climate project, the average temperature in China has been reduced by at least 1.25 ℃, which effectively alleviates global warming and is conducive to the realization of the 1.5 ℃ temperature control target of the Paris Agreement.  相似文献   

7.
The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, though there still exist some significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface air temperature in the country as a whole has significantly increased for the past 50 years and 100 years, with the range of temperature increase slightly greater than that in the globe. The change in precipitation trends for the last 50 and 100 years was not significant, but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also undergone a significant change. The researches show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is probably responsible for the country-wide climate warming for the past 100 years, especially for the past 50 years. The projections of climate change for the 21st century using global and regional climate models indicate that, in the future 20-100 years, the surface air temperature will continue to increase and the annual precipitation also has an increasing trend for most parts of the country.  相似文献   

8.
A land-process scheme has been incorporated in a vertical one-dimensional time-dependent atmospheric modeland numerical experiments have been performed with the coupled model to examine influences of soil wetness and vege-tation on climate changes associated to thermal forcing.It is showed that response of land-surface temperature to thethermal forcing becomes small with increase of soil water content and vegetation cover.Furthermore,the response ismore obvious in arid climate region than in humid one.The result also shows that there exist two patterns of corre-sponding relation between variations in air temperature and humidity on the land surface in response to hydrologic andthermal focing.  相似文献   

9.
A Comparison of Polar Vortex Response to Pacific and Indian Ocean Warming   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
During recent decades,the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean has become increasingly warmer.Meanwhile,both the northern and southern hemispheric polar vortices(NPV and SPV)have exhibited a deepening trend in boreal winter.Although previous studies have revealed that the tropical Indian Ocean warming(IOW)favors an intensifying NPV and a weakening SPV,how the tropical Pacific Ocean warming(POW) influences the NPV and SPV remains unclear.In this study,a comparative analysis has been conducted through ensemble atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM)experiments.The results show that,for the Northern Hemisphere,the two warmings exerted opposite impacts in boreal winter,in that the IOW intensified the NPV while the POW weakened the NPV.For the Southern Hemisphere,both the IOW and POW warmed the southern polar atmosphere and weakened the SPV.A diagnostic analysis based on the vorticity budget revealed that such an interhemispheric difference in influences from the IOW and POW in boreal winter was associated with different roles of transient eddy momentum flux convergence between the hemispheres.Furthermore,this difference may have been linked to different strengths of stationary wave activity between the hemispheres in boreal winter.  相似文献   

10.
Climate change has substantially impacted crop growth and development in the northern agro-pastoral transitional zone. Examination of the response of crop water consumption to climate change may provide a guide for adapting local agricultural production and ecological construction to new realities. The water consumption of three local crops (wheat, naked oats, and potatoes) is examined for Wuchuan County in the northern agro-pastoral transitional zone of China using meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 and soil moisture data from 1983 to 2007. The relationships between climate change and the crop water consumption are discussed. The results show that Wuchuan experienced both a warming trend and a reduction of precipitation between 1960 and 2007. The annual mean surface air temperature increased at a rate of 0.04℃ yr-1 and the annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 0.7 mm yr-1 . Both trends are particularly pronounced between 1983 and 2007, with an increase in annual mean temperature of 0.09℃ yr-1 and a decrease in annual mean precipitation of 2.1 mm yr-1 . Crop water consumption decreased between 1983 and 2007 for wheat (1.65 mm yr-1 ), naked oats (2.04 mm yr-1 ), and potatoes (3.85 mm yr-1 ). Potatoes and naked oats consume more water than wheat. Climate change has significantly impacted crop water consumption. Water consumption and rainfall during the growing season are positively correlated, while water consumption and active accumulated temperature are negatively correlated. Compared to precipitation, accumulated temperature has little impact on crop water consumption. Recent climate change has been detrimental for crop production in Wuchuan County. Adaptation to climate change should include efforts to breed drought-resistant crops and to develop drought-resistant cultivation techniques.  相似文献   

11.
Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around 1991, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate warming. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate warming was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastern China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastern China.  相似文献   

12.
Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  
An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃ (10 yr)-1 to 0.12℃ (10 yr)-1 . This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events.  相似文献   

13.
Oceanic Origin of A Recent La Nina-Like Trend in the Tropical Pacific   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Global ocean temperature has been rising since the late 1970s at a speed unprecedented during the past century of recordkeeping.This accelerated warming has profound impacts not only on the marine ecosystem and oceanic carbon uptake but also on the global water cycle and climate.During this rapid warming period,the tropical Pacific displays a pronounced La Nin a-like trend,characterized by an intensification of west-east SST gradient and of atmospheric zonal overturning circulation,namely the Walker circulation.This La Nin a-like trend differs from the El Nin o-like trend in warm climate projected by most climate models,and cannot be explained by responses of the global water cycle to warm climate.The results of this study indicate that the intensification of the zonal SST gradient and the Walker circulation are associated with recent strengthening of the upper-ocean meridional overturning circulation.  相似文献   

14.
Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering (G4 test) and non-climate engineering (RCP4.5), the regional differences in the extreme high-temperature intensities in China during the implementation of climate engineering programs (2020 to 2069) and after the implementation of those programs (2070 to 2099) were analyzed using a Weibull Distribution Theory. The results indicated the following: (1) The results of this study’s comparison between the two scenarios had shown that climate engineering had not fundamentally changed the spatial features of the high and low differentiations for the extreme high-temperature intensities with the different recurrence periods in China. It was found that in both scenarios, the extreme high-temperature intensities were characterized by the spatial differentiations of low-temperature intensities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and high-temperature intensities in the eastern and northwestern region; (2) This study’s comparison results of the two scenarios had indicated that the climate engineering processes during the two study periods could potentially help mitigate the extreme high-temperature intensities with different recurrence periods in China. Furthermore, the mitigation effects during the implementation period would be significantly higher than those after the implementation; (3) This study’s results of the comparison between the periods ranging from 2020 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under the proposed climate engineering scenarios suggested that there would be no strong rebounding of the extreme high-temperatures following the implementation of climate engineering programs, and the mitigation effects on the extreme high-temperature intensities during the implementation of the climate engineering programs would be significantly higher than after the implementation of the programs; (4) When comparisons were made of the changes of the average temperatures in China before and after the implementation of climate engineering programs, the results had shown that the average temperature in China had been reduced by at least 1.25℃ as a result of climate engineering, which would effectively alleviate the global warming trend, and could also be conducive to the realization of a temperature control target of 1.5℃ in accordance with the Paris Agreement.  相似文献   

15.
It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Ni?a events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Ni?a event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian?western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Ni?a events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.  相似文献   

16.
The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ＂yield impact of meteorological factor （YIMF）＂ or ＂yield impact of weather factor＂ to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change （YICC）, which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields （PUAY） of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.  相似文献   

17.
1 INTRODUCTION With the presence of greenhouse effect and rapid urbanization over the past decades, global climate has been warming up. An agricultural town more than 20 years ago, Dongguan, which sits on the estuary of the Pearl River in the south of China, has grown into a strong industrial base and urbanization with the development has substantially changed the look of its underlying surface and inevitably affects the local climate change. There have been studies on the long-term chan…  相似文献   

18.
It has been challenging to project the tropical cyclone(TC) intensity,structure and destructive potential changes in a warming climate.Here,we compare the sensitivities of TC intensity,size and destructive potential to sea surface warming with and without a pre-storm atmospheric adjustment to an idealized state of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium(RCE).Without RCE,we find large responses of TC intensity,size and destructive potential to sea surface temperature(SST) changes,which is in line with some previous studies.However,in an environment under RCE,the TC size is almost insensitive to SST changes,and the sensitivity of intensity is also much reduced to 3%?C-1–4%?C-1.Without the pre-storm RCE adjustment,the mean destructive potential measured by the integrated power dissipation increases by about 25%?C-1 during the mature stage.However,in an environment under RCE,the sensitivity of destructive potential to sea surface warming does not change significantly.Further analyses show that the reduced response of TC intensity and size to sea surface warming under RCE can be explained by the reduced thermodynamic disequilibrium between the air boundary layer and the sea surface due to the RCE adjustment.When conducting regional-scale sea surface warming experiments for TC case studies,without any RCE adjustment the TC response is likely to be unrealistically exaggerated.The TC intensity–temperature sensitivity under RCE is very similar to those found in coupled climate model simulations.This suggests global mean intensity projections under climate change can be understood in terms of a thermodynamic response to temperature with only a minor contribution from any changes in large-scale dynamics.  相似文献   

19.
The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) experiments performed by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model(BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regarding the time evolutions of the global and China mean surface air temperature(SAT) and surface climate change over China in recent decades.BCC_CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0.By the year 2005,the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming amplitude of approximately 1℃ in China over the 1961-1990 mean,which is consistent with observation.The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,with the warmest occurring in winter.Although the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model.For the precipitation change,BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring,with drought in Southeast China.After removing the linear trend,the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.  相似文献   

20.
The preliminary analysis of climatic variation in China during the last 39 years has been made in this paper. The results show that although the global climate is getting warmer, some parts of China are cooling. The warming only occurs in Northeast, North and the west part of Northwest China while the areas between about 35°N and Nanling Mountain, east of the Tibetan Plateau in China are getting cooler. The cooling centers are located in Sichuan, the south part of Shaanxi and the north part of Yunnan respectively. According to the theory of greenhouse effect, there are much precipitation at low and high latitudes and less precipitation in middle latitude. However, the precipitation in the most parts of China has been decreased, especially in North and Northwest China.  相似文献   

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