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由中国地震局和美国国家科学基金委、地质调查局合作建立的地震预报研究实验场为中国早期地震工作的发展起到了良好的推动作用。由于种种客观原因,地震预报实验场的多数预想目标未能达成,发展受到了阻碍。最近几年,实验场重新受到重视,并更名为"地震科学实验场"。结合目前地震学发展的前沿和防震减灾事业的实际需求,本文提出增加"地下云图"作为实验场的新方向。利用高重复性、环境友好、安全性高的气枪震源,持续激发地震信号,实现对地下介质速度变化的连续监测;结合背景噪声成像获得的高分辨率3维地壳结构,构建4维(三维空间+一维时间)地下结构成像。"地下云图"可以反映地下速度和应力变化,为全国范围的地震监测预测提供新的业务手段,推动地震预测从经验预测到物理预测的转换。 相似文献
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山崎断层地震预报实验场是日本地震学界为探索地震发生的规律、实现地震预报的实用化目标而大力开展的一项重要实验研究项目。本文较系统地概述了日本地震学界地震预报研究的思路,选定山崎断层作为地震预报实验场的条件,地震预报实验场的做法,实验场在地震预报研究中的作用,山崎断层地震预报实验场的特点及其与苏美等国的实验场的比较,十年来实验场在一些主要科研项目中所取得的进展;尤其是在综合观测与综合预报研究中取得的进展。最后,还介绍了日本地震学界对如何进一步搞好地震预报实验场的设想。 相似文献
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中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会 《国际地震动态》2006,(1):45-46
2005年6月8—15日,中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会和广西壮族自治区地震局在北海联合召开地震海啸与地震预报实验场学术研讨会。本次会议的主要内容为:①印度洋8.7级地震对我国的影响及地震海啸的科学问题;②“十一·五”地震预报实验场的科学问题和实施方案研讨;③地震预测新 相似文献
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防震减灾事业的长期可持续发展取决于地震科技进步,而制定好地震科技发展规划是推动地震科技进步的重要保障。本文建议了地震科技发展战略制定应考虑的5个原则,提出当前和今后一段时期地震科技发展战略的构想,从11个方面提出了“十一五”地震科技项目建议,同时,对其中地震预报科学实验场的选择提出了原则建议,进而从科学意义与必要性、已具备的条件、科学目标、监测与研究内容和运行机制与模式等5个方面论述了祁连山大震机理与预报科学实验场建设的可行性。 相似文献
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英文“Resilience”和汉语“韧性”这两个词汇被广泛应用在不同的学科领域。在中国的生态学和工程学领域“Resilience”一词常被翻译成“恢复力、弹性、韧性和韧弹性”等,正确的理解和解析英文“Resilience”和汉语“韧性”十分必要。本文主要依据现有英文和汉语辞典、辞书以及相关的中外科技文献,对英文“Resilience”和汉语“韧性”这两个词汇的含义进行全面的词义辨析和清理,认为英文“Resilience”翻译成汉语“韧性”比较合适,符合汉语的词义和语言环境,韧性在一定程度上涵盖了恢复、弹回和弹性的含义;在此基础上,总结和厘定了韧性的起源、定义和内涵;比较全面的梳理和评述了“Resilience”和“韧性”这两个词在不同学科领域的发展和演化。这一研究工作对正确的使用英文“Resilience”和汉语“韧性”有重要意义,对从事韧性城市研究、城市规划、城市抗震韧性研究和建筑抗震韧性研究的科技人员有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
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Some Thoughts on the Earthquake Science Experimental Site——The Underground Cloud Map 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Western Yunnan Earthquake Predication Test Site set up jointly by the China Earthquake Administration, the National Science Foundation Commission of America, and United States Geological Survey has played an important role in development of early earthquake research work in China. Due to various objective reasons, most of the predicted targets in the earthquake prediction test site have not been achieved, and the development has been hindered. In recent years, the experiment site has been reconsidered, and renamed the “Earthquake Science Experimental Site”. Combined with the current development of seismology and the practical needs of disaster prevention and mitigation, we propose adding the “Underground Cloud Map” as the new direction of the experimental site. Using highly repeatable, environmentally friendly and safe airgun sources, we could send constant seismic signals, which realizes continuous monitoring of subsurface velocity changes. Utilizing the high-resolution 3-D crustal structure from ambient noise tomography, we could obtain 4-D (3-D space + 1-D time) images of subsurface structures, which we termed the “Underground Cloud Map”. The “Underground Cloud Map” can reflect underground velocity and stress changes, providing new means for the earthquake monitoring forecast nationwide, which promotes the conversion of experience-based earthquake prediction to physics-based prediction. 相似文献
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The foraminiferal δ 18O and δ 13C records for the past 5 Ma at ODP Site 1143 reveal the linear responses of the Plio-Pleistocene climatic changes in the southern South China Sea to orbital forcing at the obliquity and precession bands. The phase of the δ 18O variations with the orbital forcing is opposite to that of the δ 13C, which may be caused by the frequent El Niño events from the equatorial Pacific. The amplification of the Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet at ñ3.3 Ma probably affected the development of the 100-ka climatic cycles. Its further spreading may spur the 100-ka climatic cycle to become the dominant cycle in the late Pleistocene. The “Mid- Pleistocene Transition” event has localized influence on the isotopic variations in the southern South China Sea. The foraminiferal δ 13C records for the past 5 Ma at Site 1143 are highly coherent with the orbital forcing at the long eccentricity band, and lead the δ 18O records at the shorter eccentricity band, highlighting the importance of the carbon cycle in the global climate change. 相似文献
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本文是针对迄今为止中国在地震大小的度量方面存在的主要问题撰写的。 在阐明地震大小物理含义的基础上, 首先指出由震源辐射能量ER出发所定义的传统震级标度ML, mb(mB), MS都存在着“以偏概全”, “震级饱和”和ML震级标度的“局限性”, 以及不同标度的震级之间不可相互换算等问题。 而由在地震破裂的整个过程中震源区“等效力”所做的功出发导出的地震矩M0是对地震大小最科学的度量。 为继续应用“震级”这一术语来描述地震的大小, 由M0所定义的矩震级标度MW不仅克服了传统震级标度存在的各种问题, 而且适用对不同大小、 不同震中距、 不同震源深度地震大小的度量。 因此近20年已被国际地震学界普遍采用。 最后强调推进地震大小的度量与国际接轨是推进中国地震科技现代化必须解决的重要基础性工作, 不仅有利于国际地震科技交流合作, 而且有助于增强防震减灾工作的科学性。 相似文献
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跟踪和总结地震预测在国际上的研究进展,是调整优化我国自主进行与地震预测相关的科学研究和推进学科建设的重要方式之一。为反映近10年来国际上地震预测研究的进展与变化趋势,通过文献计量学分析、国际科学研究计划介绍和主要研究成果总结等方式,给出我国地震预测相关研究在国际研究体系中可能的位置,并概括了近10年来在全球性科学研究计划主导下国际上取得的主要科学进展,包括预测模型研发、提升预测可操作性、拓展地震减灾应用等方面,极大地丰富了地震预测相关学科的科学内涵并融入经济社会发展的成效,这些将对我国地震预测相关科学研究有着重要的启发意义。 相似文献
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新时代背景下,少儿科普读物有助于培养少儿读者的科学精神,有助于提升整体国民的科学素养和意识.本文在分析少儿地震科普读物内涵的基础上,比较了国内外主要读物的知识内容和表现形式,分析了现阶段少儿地震科普读物存在的问题与不足,进而提出了新时代背景下,我国少儿地震科普读物的创新发展路径,具体包括:树立"少儿本位"的优先发展原则... 相似文献
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JAROMÍR NĚMEC 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):193-197
Abstract All the field “experiments” indicated in the sub-title above include the hydrological cycle in some or all of its aspects and thus require the use of “hydrological sciences”. Is hydrology actually included in them? This depends on the definition of hydrology used. The paper briefly describes the different definitions of “hydrology” in the context of the scientific objectives and concepts of these experiments and related scientific activities. It further evaluates the role actually assigned to hydrologists in past cross-disciplinary endeavours to conduct “field experiments” and goes on to propose adjustments to this role in the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP). Related activities are analysed in some detail in this framework and proposals are presented for increased inter-disciplinary communication. 相似文献
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Marcel ROCHE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):19-25
SUMMARY The geographical transposition of the results obtained from representative and experimental watersheds is a matter of regressions based upon geomorphological caracteristics of these watersheds. Therefore, the lumped model for the transformation of precipitations into runoff, generally used for small sized basins, must be simplified and standardized in order to be defined, in any case, by the same parameters. Moreover, the elements of the hydrograph, especially the base time, are to be determined by a very strict processus providing with “consistent” estimates. These new necessary conditions lead to see again the methods used till now for scientific purposes in operating the data from small watersheds, to the so-called “standard hydrograph”. 相似文献
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Shi-Rong Mei 《地震科学(英文版)》1995,8(3):337-349
According to the requirement of the project “Establishment of the Physical Model of Earthquake Precursor Fields”, this paper elucidates the train of thinking for research on the project and some scientific problems which must be studied; the elucidation emphasizes that the core of this project is to study the conditions and processes of the generation of strong earthquakes. The paper first outlines the origin and development of the “strong-body earthquake-generating model” proposed by the author in the 1980’s; and then proves the reasonableness of the model from three aspects, namely: deep structures, mechanical analysis and rock fracture experiments. By studying the tomographic image for the northern part of North China, it can be seen that the sources of strong earthquakes are all distributed in high-velocity bodies, or in the contact zone between high-velocity and low-velocity bodies but nearer to the high-velocity body. It has been affirmed through studies of the mechanical models of hard and soft inclusions that the existence of a hard inclusion is an important condition for the high concentration of large amounts of strain energy. A lot of theoretical and experimental studies have been made to investigate the conditions for rock instability; the results have consistently indicated that rock instability, sudden fracture and stress drop would be possible only if the stiffness of the source body is greater than the environmental stiffness. 相似文献