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1.
It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Ni?a events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Ni?a event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian?western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Ni?a events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.  相似文献   

2.
The Northern Hemisphere(NH) often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Ni?a winters. In 2022, a third-year La Ni?a event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December 2022. Under such a significant global climate signal, whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed, despite the direct influence of mid-to high-latitude,large-scale atmospheric ...  相似文献   

3.
Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops,setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6?8 January 2021.These cold events occurred under background conditions of low Arctic sea ice extent and a La Ni?a event.This is somewhat expected since the coupled effect of large Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Pacific usually favors cold event occurrences in Eurasia.Further diagnosis reveals that the first cold event is related to the southward movement of the polar vortex and the second one is related to a continent-wide ridge,while both the southward polar vortex and the Asian blocking are crucial for the third event.Here,we evaluate the forecast skill for these three events utilizing the operational forecasts from the ECMWF model.We find that the third event had the highest predictability since it achieves the best skill in forecasting the East Asian cooling among the three events.Therefore,the predictability of these cold events,as well as their relationships with the atmospheric initial conditions,Arctic sea ice,and La Ni?a deserve further investigation.  相似文献   

4.
In the first half of winter 2020/21,China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions,with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China.Meanwhile,a moderate La Ni?a event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase,just prior to the 2020/21 winter.In this report,the mid?high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,a strengthened Siberian High,an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough,are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21.At the same time,the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific(La Ni?a)provided an indispensable background,at a hemispheric scale,to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes.In the end,a most recent La Ni?a prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.  相似文献   

5.
A central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o event occurred in 2018/19. Previous studies have shown that different mechanisms are responsible for different subtypes of CP El Ni?o events(CP-I El Ni?o and CP-II El Ni?o). By comparing the evolutions of surface winds, ocean temperatures, and heat budgets of the CP-I El Ni?o, CP-II El Ni?o, and 2018/19 El Ni?o, it is illustrated that the subtropical westerly anomalies in the North Pacific, which led to anomalous convergence of Ekman flow and surface warming in the ...  相似文献   

6.
El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM). However, the effect of La Ni?a events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of El Ni?o events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Ni?o events and stronger during La Ni?a winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during El Ni?o years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific(WNP) anticyclone during El Ni?o events and the WNP cyclone during La Ni?a events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Ni?a events is westward-shifted relative to its El Ni?o counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote El Ni?o and La Ni?a anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP.However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), although the spatial patterns of anomalous circulations are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux anomalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.  相似文献   

7.
This study investigates how the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) modulates the intraseasonal variability(ISV) of Pacific–Japan(PJ) teleconnection pattern. The PJ index during boreal summer is constructed from the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) of the 850-hPa zonal wind(U850) anomalies. Distinct periods of the PJ index are found during El Ni?o and La Ni?a summers. Although ISV of the PJ pattern is significant during 10–25 days for both types of summers, it peaks on Days 30 and 60 in El Ni?o and La Ni?a summers respectively. During El Ni?o summers, the 30-day ISV of PJ pattern is related to the northwestward propagating intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) over the western North Pacific(WNP), which is originated from the tropical Indian Ocean(IO). During La Ni?a summers,the 60-day ISV of PJ pattern is related to the northeastward propagating ISO from the tropical IO. The low-frequency ISV modes in both El Ni?o and La Ni?a summers are closely related to the boreal summer ISO(BSISO), and the high-frequency ISV modes over WNP are related to the quasi-biweekly oscillation. The underlying mechanisms for these different evolutions are also discussed.  相似文献   

8.
One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Ni?na) to a warm water state (El Ni?no) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980–2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Ni?no (or La Ni?na) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Ni?no and La Ni?na events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Ni?no event to a La Ni?na event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Ni?no or La Ni?na event at least one year in advance.  相似文献   

9.
Based on Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) and NCEP reanalysis data, atmospheric and oceanic processes possibly responsible for the onset of the 2011/12 La Nia event, which followed the 2010/11 La Nia even—referred to as a "double dip" La Nia—are investigated. The key mechanisms involved in activating the 2011/12 La Nia are illustrated by these datasets. Results show that neutral conditions were already evident in the equatorial eastern Pacific during the decaying phase of the 2010/11 La Nia. However, isothermal analyses show obviously cold water still persisting at the surface and at subsurface depths in off-equatorial regions throughout early 2011, being most pronounced in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies in the tropical South Pacific acted to strengthen a southern wind across the equator. The subsurface cold water in the tropical South Pacific then spread northward and broke into the equatorial region at the thermocline depth. This incursion process of off-equatorial subsurface cold water successfully interrupted the eastern propagation of warm water along the equator, which had previously accumulated at subsurface depths in the warm pool during the 2010/11 La Nia event. Furthermore, the incursion process strengthened as a result of the off-equatorial effects, mostly in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies then reappeared in the central basin in summer 2011, and acted to trigger local coupled air–sea interactions to produce atmospheric–oceanic anomalies that developed and evolved with the second cooling in the fall of 2011.  相似文献   

10.
To explain the recent three-year La Ni?a event from 2020 to 2022, which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide, Fasullo et al.(2023) demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 2019-20 Australian wildfire season could have triggered this multi-year La Ni?a. Here, we present compelling evidence from paleo-proxies,utilizing a substantial sample size of 26 volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere(SH), to support the hypothesis that ocean cooling in the SH can...  相似文献   

11.
Isopycnal analyses were performed on the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) to determine the oceanic processes leading to so-called second-year cooling of the La Nina event. In 2010–12, a horseshoe-like pattern was seen,connecting negative temperature anomalies off and on the Equator, with a dominant influence from the South Pacific. During the 2010 La Nina event, warm waters piled up at subsurface depths in the western tropical Pacific. Beginning in early 2011,these warm subsurface anomalies propagated along the Equator toward the eastern basin, acting to reverse the sign of sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies(SSTAs) there and initiate a warm SSTA. However, throughout early 2011, pronounced negative anomalies persisted off the Equator in the subsurface depths of the South Pacific. As isopycnal surfaces outcropped in the central equatorial Pacific, negative anomalies from the subsurface spread upward along with mean circulation pathways, naturally initializing a cold SSTA. In the summer, a cold SSTA reappeared in the central basin, which subsequently strengthened due to the off-equatorial effects mostly in the South Pacific. These SSTAs acted to initiate local coupled air–sea interactions, generating atmospheric–oceanic anomalies that developed and evolved with the second-year cooling in the fall of 2011. However, the cooling tendency in mid-2012 did not develop into another La Nina event, since the cold anomalies in the South Pacific were not strong enough. An analysis of the 2007–09 La Nina event revealed similar processes to the2010–12 La Nina event.  相似文献   

12.
The 2015/16 super El Ni?o event has been widely recognized as comparable to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Ni?o events.This study examines the main features of upper-ocean dynamics in this new super event,contrasts them to those in the two historical super events,and quantitatively compares the major oceanic dynamical feedbacks based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis of the tropical Pacific.During the early stage,this new event is characterized by an eastward propagation of SST anomalies and a weak warm-pool El Ni?o;whereas during its mature phase,it is characterized by a weak westward propagation and a westward-shifted SST anomaly center,mainly due to the strong easterly wind and cold upwelling anomalies in the far eastern Pacific,as well as the westward anomalies of equatorial zonal current and subsurface ocean temperature.The heat budget analysis shows that the thermocline feedback is the most crucial process inducing the SST anomaly growth and phase transition of all the super events,and particularly for this new event,the zonal advective feedback also exerts an important impact on the formation of the strong warming and westward-shifted pattern of SST anomalies.During this event,several westerly wind burst events occur,and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate eastwards before being maintained over eastern Pacific in the mature stage.Meanwhile,there is no evidence for westward propagation of the off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves though the discharging process of equatorial heat during the development and mature stages.The second generation El Ni?o prediction system of the Beijing Climate Center produced reasonable event real-time operational prediction during 2014–16,wherein the statistical prediction model that considers the preceding oceanic precursors plays an important role in the multi-method ensemble prediction of this super.  相似文献   

13.
The 2015/16 El Ni?o displayed a distinct feature in the SST anomalies over the far eastern Pacific(FEP)compared to the 1997/98 extreme case.In contrast to the strong warm SST anomalies in the FEP in the 1997/98 event,the FEP warm SST anomalies in the 2015/16 El Ni?o were modest and accompanied by strong southeasterly wind anomalies in the southeastern Pacific.Exploring possible underlying causes of this distinct difference in the FEP may improve understanding of the diversity of extreme El Ni?os.Here,we employ observational analyses and numerical model experiments to tackle this issue.Mixed-layer heat budget analysis suggests that compared to the 1997/98 event,the modest FEP SST warming in the 2015/16 event was closely related to strong vertical upwelling,strong westward current,and enhanced surface evaporation,which were caused by the strong southeasterly wind anomalies in the southeastern Pacific.The strong southeasterly wind anomalies were initially triggered by the combined effects of warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific(CEP)and cold SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Pacific in the antecedent winter,and then sustained by the warm SST anomalies over the northeastern subtropical Pacific and CEP.In contrast,southeasterly wind anomalies in the 1997/98 El Ni?o were partly restrained by strong anomalously negative sea level pressure and northwesterlies in the northeast flank of the related anomalous cyclone in the subtropical South Pacific.In addition,the strong southeasterly wind and modest SST anomalies in the 2015/16 El Ni?o may also have been partly related to decadal climate variability.  相似文献   

14.
The impact of La Ni?a on the winter Arctic stratosphere has thus far been an ambiguous topic of research. Contradictory results have been reported depending on the La Ni?a events considered. This study shows that this is mainly due to the decadal variation of La Ni?a's impact on the winter Arctic stratosphere since the late 1970 s. Specifically,during the period1951–78,the tropospheric La Ni?a teleconnection exhibits a typical negative Pacific–North America pattern,which strongly inhibits the propagation of the planetary waves from the extratropical troposphere to the stratosphere,and leads to a significantly strengthened stratospheric polar vortex. In contrast,during 1979–2015,the La Ni?a teleconnection shifts eastwards,with an anomalous high concentrated in the northeastern Pacific. The destructive interference of the La Ni?a teleconnection with climatological stationary waves seen in the earlier period reduces greatly,which prevents the drastic reduction of planetary wave activities in the extratropical stratosphere. Correspondingly,the stratospheric response shows a less disturbed stratospheric polar vortex in winter.  相似文献   

15.
El Nio or La Nia manifest in December over the Pacific and will serve as an index for the forecasting of subsequent Indian summer monsoon,which occurs from June to mid-September.In the present article,an attempt is made to study the variation of latent heat flux (LHF) over the north Indian Ocean during strong El Nio and strong La Nia and relate it with Indian monsoon rainfall.During strong El Nio the LHF intensity is higher and associated with higher wind speed and lower cloud amount.During El Nio all India rainfall is having an inverse relation with LHF.Seasonal rainfall is higher in YY+1 (subsequent year) than YY (year of occurrence).However there is a lag in rainfall during El Nio YY+1 from June to July when compared with the monthly rainfall.  相似文献   

16.
This study introduces a new global climate model—the Integrated Climate Model(ICM)—developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian–western North Pacific(EA–WNP) climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of El Nińo as one of the most important factors on EA–WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA–WNP climate—El Nińo and the East Asia–Pacific Pattern—are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated El Nińo has significant impact on EA–WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA–WNP climate.  相似文献   

17.
Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Ni?a after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Ni?a prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Ni?a development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.  相似文献   

18.
In summer 2018, a total of 18 tropical cyclones(TCs) formed in the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS), among which 8 TCs landed in China, ranking respectively the second and the first highest since 1951.Most of these TCs travelled northwest to northward, bringing in heavy rainfall and strong winds in eastern China and Japan. The present study investigates the impacts of decaying La Ni?a and intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) on the extremely active TCs over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 by use of correlation and composite analyses. It is found that the La Ni?a episode from October 2017 to March 2018 led to above-normal sea surface temperature(SST) over central–western Pacific, lower sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height over WNP, and abnormally strong convective activities over the western Pacific in summer 2018. These preceding oceanic thermal conditions and their effects on circulation anomalies are favorable to TC genesis in summer. Detailed examination reveals that the monsoon trough was located further north and east, inducing more TCs in northern and eastern WNP; and the more eastward WNP subtropical high as well as the significant wave train with a "-+-+" height anomaly pattern over the midlatitude Eurasia–North Pacific region facilitated the northwest to northward TC tracks. Further analyses reveal that two successively active periods of Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) occurred in summer 2018 and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) was also active over WNP, propagating northward significantly, corresponding to the more northward TC tracks. The MJO was stagnant over the Maritime Continent to western Pacific,leading to notably enhanced convection in the lower troposphere and divergence in the upper troposphere, conducive to TC occurrences. In a word, the extremely active TC activities over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 are closely linked with the decaying La Ni?a, and the MJO and BSISO; their joint effects result in increased TC occurrences and the TC tracks being shifted more northwest to northward than normal.  相似文献   

19.
After the strong 2015/16 El Ni?o event, cold conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific with the second-year cooling of the 2017/18 La Ni?a event. Many coupled models failed to predict the cold SST anomalies(SSTAs) in 2017. By using the ERA5 and GODAS(Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) products, atmospheric and oceanic factors were examined that could have been responsible for the second-year cooling, including surface wind and the subsurface thermal state. A time sequence is described to demonstrate how the cold SSTAs were produced in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2017. Since July 2017, easterly anomalies strengthened in the central Pacific; in the meantime, wind stress divergence anomalies emerged in the far eastern region, which strengthened during the following months and propagated westward, contributing to the development of the second-year cooling in 2017. At the subsurface, weak negative temperature anomalies were accompanied by upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which provided the cold water source for the sea surface. Thereafter, both the cold anomalies and upwelling were enhanced and extended westward in the centraleastern equatorial Pacific. These changes were associated with the seasonally weakened EUC(the Equatorial Undercurrent) and strengthened SEC(the South Equatorial Current), which favored more cold waters being accumulated in the central-equatorial Pacific. Then, the subsurface cold waters stretched upward with the convergence of the horizontal currents and eventually outcropped to the surface. The subsurface-induced SSTAs acted to induce local coupled air–sea interactions, which generated atmospheric–oceanic anomalies developing and evolving into the second-year cooling in the fall of 2017.  相似文献   

20.
With the Zebiak-Cane model and a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing, the impact of the uncertainties of Madden–Jullian Oscillation (MJO) on the “Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB)” for El Ni?no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is studied. The parameterized form of MJO forcing is added physically to the Zebiak-Cane model to obtain the so-called Zebiak-Cane-MJO model and then the effects of initial error, stochastic model error, and their joint error mode on the SPB associated with El Ni?no prediction are estimated. The results show that the model errors caused by stochastic MJO forcing could hardly lead to a significant SPB while initial errors can do; furthermore, the joint error mode of initial error and model error associated with the stochastic MJO forcing can also lead to a significant SPB. These demonstrate that the initial error is probably the main error source of the SPB, which may provide a theoretical foundation of data assimilation for ENSO forecasts.  相似文献   

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