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1.
In the first half of winter 2020/21,China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions,with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China.Meanwhile,a moderate La Ni?a event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase,just prior to the 2020/21 winter.In this report,the mid?high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,a strengthened Siberian High,an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough,are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21.At the same time,the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific(La Ni?a)provided an indispensable background,at a hemispheric scale,to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes.In the end,a most recent La Ni?a prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.  相似文献   

2.
Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI) and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME) El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Outlook issued in April 2022, La Ni?a is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall, indicating a high possibility of a three-year La Ni?a(2020–23). It would be the first three-year La Ni?a since the 1998–2001 event, which is the only observed three-year La Ni?a event since 1980. By exam...  相似文献   

3.
Based on Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) and NCEP reanalysis data, atmospheric and oceanic processes possibly responsible for the onset of the 2011/12 La Nia event, which followed the 2010/11 La Nia even—referred to as a "double dip" La Nia—are investigated. The key mechanisms involved in activating the 2011/12 La Nia are illustrated by these datasets. Results show that neutral conditions were already evident in the equatorial eastern Pacific during the decaying phase of the 2010/11 La Nia. However, isothermal analyses show obviously cold water still persisting at the surface and at subsurface depths in off-equatorial regions throughout early 2011, being most pronounced in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies in the tropical South Pacific acted to strengthen a southern wind across the equator. The subsurface cold water in the tropical South Pacific then spread northward and broke into the equatorial region at the thermocline depth. This incursion process of off-equatorial subsurface cold water successfully interrupted the eastern propagation of warm water along the equator, which had previously accumulated at subsurface depths in the warm pool during the 2010/11 La Nia event. Furthermore, the incursion process strengthened as a result of the off-equatorial effects, mostly in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies then reappeared in the central basin in summer 2011, and acted to trigger local coupled air–sea interactions to produce atmospheric–oceanic anomalies that developed and evolved with the second cooling in the fall of 2011.  相似文献   

4.
El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM). However, the effect of La Ni?a events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of El Ni?o events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Ni?o events and stronger during La Ni?a winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during El Ni?o years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific(WNP) anticyclone during El Ni?o events and the WNP cyclone during La Ni?a events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Ni?a events is westward-shifted relative to its El Ni?o counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote El Ni?o and La Ni?a anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP.However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), although the spatial patterns of anomalous circulations are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux anomalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.  相似文献   

5.
The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone(WNPAC) is an important atmospheric circulation system that conveys El Ni?o impact on East Asian climate. In this review paper, various theories on the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC, including warm pool atmosphere–ocean interaction, Indian Ocean capacitor, a combination mode that emphasizes nonlinear interaction between ENSO and annual cycle, moist enthalpy advection/Rossby wave modulation, and central Pacific SST forcing, are discussed. It is concluded that local atmosphere–ocean interaction and moist enthalpy advection/Rossby wave modulation mechanisms are essential for the initial development and maintenance of the WNPAC during El Ni?o mature winter and subsequent spring. The Indian Ocean capacitor mechanism does not contribute to the earlier development but helps maintain the WNPAC in El Ni?o decaying summer.The cold SST anomaly in the western North Pacific, although damped in the summer, also plays a role. An interbasin atmosphere–ocean interaction across the Indo-Pacific warm pool emerges as a new mechanism in summer. In addition, the central Pacific cold SST anomaly may induce the WNPAC during rapid El Ni?o decaying/La Ni?a developing or La Ni?a persisting summer. The near-annual periods predicted by the combination mode theory are hardly detected from observations and thus do not contribute to the formation of the WNPAC. The tropical Atlantic may have a capacitor effect similar to the tropical Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

6.
After the strong 2015/16 El Ni?o event, cold conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific with the second-year cooling of the 2017/18 La Ni?a event. Many coupled models failed to predict the cold SST anomalies(SSTAs) in 2017. By using the ERA5 and GODAS(Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) products, atmospheric and oceanic factors were examined that could have been responsible for the second-year cooling, including surface wind and the subsurface thermal state. A time sequence is described to demonstrate how the cold SSTAs were produced in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2017. Since July 2017, easterly anomalies strengthened in the central Pacific; in the meantime, wind stress divergence anomalies emerged in the far eastern region, which strengthened during the following months and propagated westward, contributing to the development of the second-year cooling in 2017. At the subsurface, weak negative temperature anomalies were accompanied by upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which provided the cold water source for the sea surface. Thereafter, both the cold anomalies and upwelling were enhanced and extended westward in the centraleastern equatorial Pacific. These changes were associated with the seasonally weakened EUC(the Equatorial Undercurrent) and strengthened SEC(the South Equatorial Current), which favored more cold waters being accumulated in the central-equatorial Pacific. Then, the subsurface cold waters stretched upward with the convergence of the horizontal currents and eventually outcropped to the surface. The subsurface-induced SSTAs acted to induce local coupled air–sea interactions, which generated atmospheric–oceanic anomalies developing and evolving into the second-year cooling in the fall of 2017.  相似文献   

7.
Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops,setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6?8 January 2021.These cold events occurred under background conditions of low Arctic sea ice extent and a La Ni?a event.This is somewhat expected since the coupled effect of large Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Pacific usually favors cold event occurrences in Eurasia.Further diagnosis reveals that the first cold event is related to the southward movement of the polar vortex and the second one is related to a continent-wide ridge,while both the southward polar vortex and the Asian blocking are crucial for the third event.Here,we evaluate the forecast skill for these three events utilizing the operational forecasts from the ECMWF model.We find that the third event had the highest predictability since it achieves the best skill in forecasting the East Asian cooling among the three events.Therefore,the predictability of these cold events,as well as their relationships with the atmospheric initial conditions,Arctic sea ice,and La Ni?a deserve further investigation.  相似文献   

8.
Five sets of model sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the influence of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis location and atmospheric circulation on interannual variability of TC intensity in the western North Pacific (WNP). In each experiment, bogus TCs are placed at different initial locations, and simulations are conducted with identical initial and boundary conditions. In the first three experiments, the specified atmospheric and SST conditions represent the mean conditions of El Nio, La Nia, and neutral years. The other two experiments are conducted with the specified atmospheric conditions of El Nio and La Nia years but with SSTs exchanged. The model results suggest that TCs generated in the southeastern WNP incurred more favorable environmental conditions for development than TCs generated elsewhere. The different TC intensities between El Nio and La Nia years are caused by difference in TC genesis location and low-level vorticity (VOR). VOR plays a significant role in the intensities of TCs with the same genesis locations between El Nio and La Nia years.  相似文献   

9.
It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Ni?a events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Ni?a event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian?western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Ni?a events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.  相似文献   

10.
Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Ni?a after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Ni?a prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Ni?a development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.  相似文献   

11.
Warm and cold phases of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their decay speed. To explore the physical mechanism responsible for this asymmetric decay speed, the asymmetric features of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation over the tropical Western Pacific (WP) in El Nino and La Nina mature-to-decay phases are analyzed. It is found that the interannual standard deviations of outgoing longwave radiation and 850 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial WP during El Nino (La Nina) mature-to-decay phases are much stronger (weaker) than the intraseasonal standard deviations. It seems that the weakened (enhanced) intraseasonal oscillation during El Nino (La Nina) tends to favor a stronger (weaker) interannual variation of the atmospheric wind, resulting in asymmetric equatorial WP zonal wind anomalies in El Nino and La Nina decay phases. Numerical experiments demonstrate that such asymmetric zonal wind stress anomalies during El Nino and La Nina decay phases can lead to an asymmetric decay speed of SST anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific through stimulating di erent equatorial Kelvin waves. The largest negative anomaly over the Nino3 region caused by the zonal wind stress anomalies during El Nino can be threefold greater than the positive Nino3 SSTA anomalies during La Nina, indicating that the stronger zonal wind stress anomalies over the equatorial WP play an important role in the faster decay speed during El Nino.  相似文献   

12.
Isopycnal analyses were performed on the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) to determine the oceanic processes leading to so-called second-year cooling of the La Nina event. In 2010–12, a horseshoe-like pattern was seen,connecting negative temperature anomalies off and on the Equator, with a dominant influence from the South Pacific. During the 2010 La Nina event, warm waters piled up at subsurface depths in the western tropical Pacific. Beginning in early 2011,these warm subsurface anomalies propagated along the Equator toward the eastern basin, acting to reverse the sign of sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies(SSTAs) there and initiate a warm SSTA. However, throughout early 2011, pronounced negative anomalies persisted off the Equator in the subsurface depths of the South Pacific. As isopycnal surfaces outcropped in the central equatorial Pacific, negative anomalies from the subsurface spread upward along with mean circulation pathways, naturally initializing a cold SSTA. In the summer, a cold SSTA reappeared in the central basin, which subsequently strengthened due to the off-equatorial effects mostly in the South Pacific. These SSTAs acted to initiate local coupled air–sea interactions, generating atmospheric–oceanic anomalies that developed and evolved with the second-year cooling in the fall of 2011. However, the cooling tendency in mid-2012 did not develop into another La Nina event, since the cold anomalies in the South Pacific were not strong enough. An analysis of the 2007–09 La Nina event revealed similar processes to the2010–12 La Nina event.  相似文献   

13.
In this study, two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode (MJO) are found in the summer season (persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active), and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes. They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons: When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer, El Ni?o events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year. However, during the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean, La Ni?a events often follow instead. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation field indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation, and results in wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water masses which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean. The accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO.  相似文献   

14.
Using multiple datasets, this paper analyzes the characteristics of winter precipitation over southern China and its association with warm and cold phases of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation during 1948 2011. The study proves that E1 Nifio is an important external forcing factor resulting in above-normal winter precipitation in southern China. The study also reveals that the impact ofLa Nifia on the winter precipitation in southern China has a decadal variability. During the winter of La Nifia before 1980, the East Asian winter monsoon is stronger than normal with a deeper trough over East Asia, and the western Pacific subtropical high weakens with its high ridge retreating more eastward. Therefore, anomalous northerly winds dominate over southern China, leading to a cold and dry winter. During La Nifia winter after 1980, however, the East Asian trough is weaker than normal, unfavorable for the southward invasion of the winter monsoon. The India-Burma trough is intensified, and the anomalous low-level cyclone excited by La Nifia is located to the west of the Philippines. Therefore, anomalous easterly winds prevail over southern China, which increases moisture flux from the tropical oceans to southern China. Meanwhile, La Nifia after 1980 may lead to an enhanced and more northward subtropical westerly jet over East Asia in winter. Since southern China is rightly located on the right side of the jet entrance region, anomalous ascending motion dominates there through the secondary vertical circulation, favoring more winter precipitation in southern China. Therefore, a cold and wet winter, sometimes with snowy and icy weathers, would occur in southern China during La Nifia winter after 1980. Further analyses indicate that the change in the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomaly during the La Nifia mature phase, as well as the decadal variation of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, would be the important reasons for the decadal variability of the La Nifia impact on the atmospheric circulation in East Asia and winter precipitation over southern China after 1980.  相似文献   

15.
The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on winter haze in Guangdong province (WHDGD) was analyzed on the interannual scale. It was pointed out that the northern Indian Ocean and the northwest Pacific SST play a leading role in the variation of WHDGD. Cold (warm) SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific stimulate the eastward propagation of cold (warm) Kelvin waves through the Gill forced response, causing Ekman convergence (divergence) in the western Pacific, inducing abnormal cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation. It excites the positive (negative) Western Pacific teleconnection pattern (WP), which results in the temperature and the precipitation decrease (increase) in Guangdong and forms the meteorological variables conditions that are conducive (not conducive) to the formation of haze. ENSO has an asymmetric influence on WHDGD. In El Ni?o (La Ni?a) winters, there are strong (weak) coordinated variations between the northern Indian Ocean, the northwest Pacific, and the eastern Pacific, which stimulate the negative (positive) phase of WP teleconnection. In El Ni?o winters, the enhanced moisture is attributed to the joint effects of the horizontal advection from the surrounding ocean, vertical advection from the moisture convergence, and the increased atmospheric apparent moisture sink (Q2) from soil evaporation. The weakening of the atmospheric apparent heat source (Q1) in the upper layer is not conducive to the formation of inversion stratification. In contrast, in La Ni?a winters, the reduced moisture is attributed to the reduced upward water vapor transport and Q2 loss. Due to the Q1 increase in the upper layer, the temperature inversion forms and suppresses the diffusion of haze.  相似文献   

16.
One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Ni?na) to a warm water state (El Ni?no) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980–2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Ni?no (or La Ni?na) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Ni?no and La Ni?na events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Ni?no event to a La Ni?na event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Ni?no or La Ni?na event at least one year in advance.  相似文献   

17.
1. IntroductionThe Southern Oscillation and El Ni?o/La Ni?aare anomalous events which occur in the tropical at-mosphere and ocean respectively, and their physicalmechanisms have been successively studied in the re-cent half century. Bjerknes (1969) pointed out thatthe close link between Walk circulation and SST inthe equatorial Pacific is the manifestation of the inter-action of tropical atmospheric and oceanic motions.Therefore, Southern Oscillations and El Ni?o cycleswere described as …  相似文献   

18.
To explain the recent three-year La Ni?a event from 2020 to 2022, which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide, Fasullo et al.(2023) demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 2019-20 Australian wildfire season could have triggered this multi-year La Ni?a. Here, we present compelling evidence from paleo-proxies,utilizing a substantial sample size of 26 volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere(SH), to support the hypothesis that ocean cooling in the SH can...  相似文献   

19.
In this paper, the impact of ENSO on the precipitation over China in the winter half-year is investigated diagnostically. The results show that positive precipitation anomalies with statistical significance appear over southern China in El Nio episodes, which are caused by the enhanced warm and humid southwesterlies along the East Asian coast in the lower troposphere. The enhanced southwesterlies transport more water vapor to southern China, and the convergence of water vapor over southern China increases the precipitable water and specific humidity. In La Nia episodes,although atmospheric elements change reversely, they are not statistically significant as those in El Nio periods. The possible physical mechanism of the different impact of ENSO cycle on the precipitation over southern China is investigated by analyzing the intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) in El Nio and La Nia winter half-years, respectively. By comparing the characteristics of ISOs in El Nio and La Nia, a physical mechanism is proposed to explain the different responses of the precipitation over China to ENSO in the winter half-year. In El Nio episodes, over western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) the ISOs are inactive and exert little effect on water vapor transport and convergence, inducing positive precipitation anomalies with statistical significance over southern China in El Nio episodes. In La Nia episodes, however, the ISOs are active, which weaken the interannual variation signals of ENSO over WNP and southern China and lead to the insignificance of the interannual signals related to ENSO. Therefore, the different responses of precipitation over China to ENSO in the winter half-year are possibly caused by the difference of intraseasonal oscillations over WNP and SCS between El Nio and La Nia.  相似文献   

20.
The region of south China is sometimes subject to major climatic catastrophes in winter. To have a clear understanding, the time in which extremely severe cold months occur in the south China wintertime over the past 45 years are determined and characteristics of the 500-hPa geopotential fields and SST fields are studied for the simultaneous and preceding 6-month periods. Similarity exists in the 500-hPa geopotential fields between each current severely cold month, with the geopotential pattern of being high in the north, but low in the south, of Asian-Pacific region and meridional circulation developing. The work presents anomalies of the months with significant differences in the 500-hPa geopotential field of the previous periods. The SSTA is continuous in the distribution from each extremely severe cold winter month back to the 6 months leading up to it for the region of south China while the SST pattern is of El Ni?o in January and the preceding 1 ~ 6 months for equatorial eastern Pacific but of La Ni?a in February and December. It is concluded that the prediction of severely cold winter months are possible with the use of the geopotential field at 500 hPa and the SST fields for the months ahead of the target time.  相似文献   

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