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1.
Gu Jinping Feng Deyi Chen Xingdong and Yang CaixiaSeismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province Nanjing China Seismological Bureau of Tianjin Municipality Tianjin China 《中国地震研究》1995,(4)
The method of fuzzy mathematics for simultaneous assessment of time and intensity of earthquake hazards has been studied.This method is based on fundamental statistical indices of regional seismicity.Applying the retrieval method of fuzzy information,we can classify the time and intensity into several intervals and classes of seismic activity,then the possible time interval of large earthquakes with magnitude of M≥Ms can be estimated in a given region.Based on the preceding idea,an FRPP program is constructed.For the automatic data processing when this method is used,it is very important to design the statistical process of each index decomposition so that the program could be fit to a different sample discussed.There are some functions in the FRPP program.The man-made impact on results is reduced to the minimum as far as possible.Computation time is saved.There is a menu on which time interval,index,intensity class,and output data all can be selected.The catalog input that can be displayed on the scre 相似文献
2.
A new data assimilation method called the explicit four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) method is proposed. In this method, the singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to construct the orthogonal basis vectors from a forecast ensemble in a 4D space. The basis vectors represent not only the spatial structure of the analysis variables but also the temporal evolution. After the analysis variables are ex-pressed by a truncated expansion of the basis vectors in the 4D space, the control variables in the cost function appear explicitly, so that the adjoint model, which is used to derive the gradient of cost func-tion with respect to the control variables, is no longer needed. The new technique significantly simpli-fies the data assimilation process. The advantage of the proposed method is demonstrated by several experiments using a shallow water numerical model and the results are compared with those of the conventional 4DVAR. It is shown that when the observation points are very dense, the conventional 4DVAR is better than the proposed method. However, when the observation points are sparse, the proposed method performs better. The sensitivity of the proposed method with respect to errors in the observations and the numerical model is lower than that of the conventional method. 相似文献
3.
Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast.In this study we introduce an improved method to derive the ECS from a global MHD model,which takes account of the obliqueness of the magnetic field lines.By comparing the ECS derived from this improved method and the previous method,we find that the main characteristics of the ECS derived from the two methods are generally consistent with each other,but the eastward-westward component of the geomagnetic perturbation calculated from the ECS derived from the improved method is much stronger than that from the previous method.We then compare the geomagnetic perturbation as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)clock angle calculated from the ECS derived from both methods with the observations.The comparison indicates that the improved method can improve the performance of the simulation.Furthermore,it is found that the incomplete counterbalance of the geomagnetic effect produced by the ionospheric poloidal current and field-aligned current(FAC)contributes to most of the eastward-westward component of geomagnetic perturbation. 相似文献
4.
Predicting global landslide spatiotemporal distribution： Integrating landslide susceptibility zoning techniques and real-time satellite rainfall estimates 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
Landslides triggered by rainfall can possibly be foreseen in real time by jointly using rainfall intensity-duration thresholds and information related to land surface susceptibility. However, no system exists at either a national or a global scale to monitor or detect rainfall conditions that may trigger landslides due to the lack of sufficient ground-based observing network in many parts of the world. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing technology and increasing availability of high-resolution geospatial products around the globe have provided an unprecedented opportunity for such a study. In this paper, a framework for developing a preliminary real-time prediction system to identify where rainfall-triggered landslides will occur is proposed by combining two necessary components： surface landslide susceptibility and a real-time space-based rainfall analysis system （http：//trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov）. First, a global landslide susceptibility map is derived from a combination of semi-static global surface characteristics （digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, land cover classification, etc.） using a GIS weighted linear combination approach. Second, an adjusted empirical relationship between rainfall intensity-duration and landslide occurrence is used to assess landslide hazards at areas with high susceptibility. A major outcome of this work is the availability for the first time of a global assessment of landslide hazards, which is only possible because of the utilization of global satellite remote sensing products. This preliminary system can be updated continuously using the new satellite remote sensing products. This proposed system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary efforts as recommended herein, bears the promise to grow many local landslide hazard analyses into a global decision-making support system for landslide disaster preparedness and mitigation activities across the world. 相似文献
5.
The seismotectonic method is used to study the seismogenic structures and the maximum potential earthquake around an engineering site in order to determine the seismic risk at the site. Analysis of seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data, in combination with regional seismo-geologieal data, using the seismotectonic method can provide a more reliable result. In this paper, taking the area of six reservoir dam sites in western Anhui as an example, we analyze the seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data in combination with the seismotectonic conditions and find that P (I≥i) = 10% over 50 years. The result shows that the seismogenic structure and the maximum potential earthquake have a controlling effect on seismic risk from future earthquakes in the area around the site. 相似文献
6.
In endurance time(ET) method structures are subjected to a set of predesigned intensifying excitations. These excitations are produced in a way that their response spectrum, while complying with a specifi ed spectrum, intensifi es with time so they can be used approximately to simulate the average effects of several ground motions scaled to different intensities. In this paper applicability of the ET method for evaluating collapse potential of buildings is investigated. A set of four steel moment frames is used for collapse assessment. The process of using ET method in collapse evaluation is explained and the results are compared with incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) results. It is shown that although the computational effort using the ET method is much less than the IDA analysis, the results of both methods are consistent. Finally collapse fragility curves using ET and IDA methods are produced and it is shown that the probabilities of collapse in different hazard levels are also consistent. 相似文献
7.
Zhang Liyan Liu Yang 《应用地球物理》2006,3(1):18-26
Pseudo-offset migration （POM） is a new method for prestack time migration of converted waves that improves on equivalent-offset migration （EOM）. The mapping of POM is different than EOM but the purpose of the two methods is to map the input samples to the common conversion scatter point （CCSP） gathers. This paper introduces the principles of the two migration methods and model parameter sensitivity tests for both POM and EOM. At large offset-to-depth ratios the hyperbolic approximation, the three-term approximation and the double square root （DSR） equation are used to NMO-correct the mapped POM gathers to obtain more accurate migration velocities. These equations were derived and calculated by small pseudo offset. POM is then used to image complex structure and prestack time migration. 相似文献
8.
The signal-to-noise ratio （SNR） of seismic reflection data in many areas is rather poor and conventional two-dimensional filters designed to suppress noise with different moveout from the signal tend to generate artifacts. We have extended a method of multichannel filtering, based on the hypothesis that signals on adjacent channels are similar, for enhancing the SNR on stacked sections. Using only the mid-range frequencies where the SNR is highest, the event trend is found for overlapping windows on the section and the average signal vector is calculated. Then the data from the full bandwidth section are projected onto the spatially varying unit similarity vectors and the results are merged for the overlapping windows. Application of the method to synthetic data containing steeply dipping events and to a stacked section for a marine 2D line has produced good results. The modifications we have introduced carry a small overhead in computing time but they should enable the method to be used effectively even on sections containing steep dips. 相似文献
9.
Air-gun arrays are used in marine-seismic exploration. Far-field wavelets in subsurface media represent the stacking of single air-gun ideal wavelets. We derived single air-gun ideal wavelets using near-field wavelets recorded from near-field geophones and then synthesized them into far-field wavelets. This is critical for processing wavelets in marine- seismic exploration. For this purpose, several algorithms are currently used to decompose and synthesize wavelets in the time domain. If the traveltime of single air-gun wavelets is not an integral multiple of the sampling interval, the complex and error-prone resampling of the seismic signals using the time-domain method is necessary. Based on the relation between the frequency-domain phase and the time-domain time delay, we propose a method that first transforms the real near-field wavelet to the frequency domain via Fourier transforms; then, it decomposes it and composes the wavelet spectrum in the frequency domain, and then back transforms it to the time domain. Thus, the resampling problem is avoided and single air-gun wavelets and far-field wavelets can be reliably derived. The effect of ghost reflections is also considered, while decomposing the wavelet and removing the ghost reflections. Modeling and real data processing were used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. 相似文献
10.
Vertical total electron content （VTEC） time series were obtained from 22 GPS stations near the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake. In this paper, we have adopted a sliding average method to detect and analyze anomalous VTEC associated with the earthquake. The results show that signif- icant, negative ionosphere VTEC anomalies appeared over the 5 days before the earthquake, and on the day when earthquake occurred. The maximum value of VTEC anoma- lies that exceeded the lower bound reached 20 TECU. The spatial distribution of VTEC anomalies showed a conjugate structure, which shifted to the magnetic equator, and subse- quently moved westwards. 相似文献
11.
Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas, through studying tectonic structure, Quaternary activity, deep structure, stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas, the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically. Using seismo-geological data, and the historical and modern seismicity data, the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude Mu and at/b, the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated. Then Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters, such as the maximum magnitude, occurrence probability, recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50 - 200a, are calculated. 相似文献
12.
Using a time series method that combines both the persistent scatterer and small baseline approaches, we analyzed 9 scenes Envisat ASAR data over the L＇Aquila earthquake, and obtained a Shocke＇s displacement field and its evolution processes. The results show that： （1） Envisat ASAR clearly detected the whole processes of displacement field of the L＇Aquila earthquake, and distinct variations at different stages of the displacement field. （2） Preseismic creep displacement → displacement mutation when faulting → constantly slowed down after the earthquake. （3） The area of the strongest deformation and ground rupture was a low-lying oval depression region to the southeast. Surface faulting within a zone of about 22 km× 14 km, with an orientation of 135°, occurred along the NW-striking and SW-dipping Paganica-S. Demetrio normal fault. （4） In analyzing an area of about 54 km x 59 km, bounded by north-south axis to the epicenter, the displacement field has significant characteristics of a watershed： westward of the epicenter shows uplift with maximum of 130 mm in line-of-sight （LOS）, and east of the epicenter was a region with 220 mm of maximum subsidence in the LOS, concentrating on the rupture zone, the majority of which formed in the course of faulting and subsequence. 相似文献
13.
The indirect boundary element method （IBEM） is used to study three-dimensional scattering of obliquely incident plane SH waves by an alluvial valley embedded in a layered half-space. The free-field response of the layered half-space is calculated by the direct stiffness method, and dynamic Green＇s functions of moving distributed loads acting on inclined lines in a layered half-space are calculated to simulate the scattering wave field. The presented method yields very accurate results since the three-dimensional dynamic stiffness matrix is exact and the moving distributed loads can act directly on the valley boundary without singularity. Numerical results and analyses are performed for amplification of obliquely incident plane SH waves around an alluvial valley in a uniform half-space and in single layer over half-space. The results show that the three-dimensional responses are distinctly different from the two-dimensional responses, and the displacement amplitudes around alluvial valleys in a uniform haft-space are obviously different from those in a layered half-space. 相似文献
14.
In this paper, using the 1999 ~ 2007 GPS velocity field data, and by choosing the optimal block model, we obtained the deformation models applicable to the boundary zones of major blocks and the slip rates of block boundary faults on the mid-southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt. The results show that： on the Longmenshan fault zone, the tensional and compressive slip rate is small on the Baoxing-Wenchuan segment, about 0. 5 ~ 1.8mm·a^-1, and the rate is relatively significant on the segment of the Wenchuan--Maoxian, as 1.8 ~3.8mm·a^-1; on the Xianshuihe fault belt, there is a certain difference in spatial distribution between the tensional slip rag.e and strike-slip rate： the tensional slip rate （ 8. lmm~a-1） is bigger than the sinistral strike-slip rate （ 4.8mm·a^-1） at the north of the Luhuo region; the tension and compression slip rate is basically the same as the strike-slip rate at Luhuo-Dawu; the Dawu-Kangding section presents a trend of decreased strike-slip rate and increased tensional slip rate; the Kangding-ghimian segment shows a strike-slip nature; the strike-slip rate is significantly greater than the tension/compression rate on the Xiaojiang fault zone; the slip rate on the Red River fault zone shows obvious spatial segmentation, the slip rate is smaller in its northwest part, but with a certain amount of tensional/compression component, 4. 7mm·a^-1 on the Jingdong segment. The segment east of Jingdong （ western Gejiu） is mainly of strike-slip, with a slip rate of 4. 5mm·a^-1. 相似文献
15.
Monitoring of subsurface fluid （underground fluid） is an important part of efforts for earthquake prediction in China. The nationwide network, which monitors groundwater level, water temperature, and radon and mercury in groundwater, has been constructed in the last decades. Large amounts of abnormal fluid changes before and after major earthquakes have been recorded, providing precious data for research in earthquake sciences. Many studies have been done in earthquake fluid hydrogeology in order to probe the nature of the earthquake. Much progress in earthquake fluid hydrogeology has been made in the last decades. The paper provides a review of the advances in research on earthquake fluid hydrogeology over the last 40 years in China. It deals with the following five aspects： （1） an introduction to the development history of monitoring networks construction; （2） cases of different subsurface fluid changes recorded before some major earthquakes which occurred in the last decades; （3） characteristics of subsurface fluid changes following major earthquakes; （4） mechanism of subsurface fluid changes before and following earthquakes; （5） application of earthquake fluids in the hydrogeology field. 相似文献
16.
Comprehensive statistical analysis was performed on the basic features of focal mechanisms of 619 ML≥2.0 earthquakes which occurred in the capital circle area from January 2002 to June 2010. By dividing the capital area into three studying regions based on regional tectonic characteristics, cluster analysis was conducted on the focal mechanisms of all subregions using the longest distance method in the statistical cluster analysis to study the characteristics of tectonic stress tensors. The result shows that dominant P-axis azimuth distribution is NNE-NEE and that of T-axis is NNW--NWW, most of the focal areas are controlled by a horizontal stress field and rupture is mainly of horizontal strike-slip. The maximum principal compression stress orientation is NE75° in the west, NE62° in the middle, and near EW in the east of the capital area. The regional tectonic stress field is characterized by horizontal compression. 相似文献
17.
The non-tidal variation gained from continuous gravity observations in stations usually reflects the regional continuous gravity changes. In this paper we focus on studying the non-tidal variation of Baijiatuan station, Beijing where there are two different gravimeters （namely, L＆R-804 and PET-031）. Based on the original raw tidal records of two gravimeters from 2008 to 2011, we first remove various interference from raw data by the standard procedure software-Tsoft; then we model the solid earth tides, ocean tidal loading and pole tide through related parameters; after that we adopt a new segmented polynomial fitting method based on Tsoft to fit the complex drift of spring gravimeter; and finally we calculate the atmospheric loading effects by a linear regression model. After a series of processing we gain the non-tidal variation of the two gravimeters at Baijiatuan site, Beijing. Furthermore, to analyze the non-tidal variation preliminarily, we study the main component of related tidal data by power spectral density. Comparing the non-tidal variation of two different gravimeters, we find seasonal fluctuations in non-tidal results, which are in accordance with the water storage change. Therefore, we take into account the relevance of gravity changes and water storage based on the gravity data of GRACE and water data of the CMAP model from 2003 to 2011 at different sites in the Chinese mainland （Beijing, Chengdu, Shenyang and Shiquanhe） , and make a preliminary analysis on the relationship between gravity changes and water storage. 相似文献
18.
In the process of solving Euler vectors based on GNSS horizontal movement field, the number of estimated parameters can affect Euler vector results. This issue is analyzed through theoretical deduction and practical example in this paper. Firstly, the difference between the results of Euler vectors in different solving models is deduced. Meanwhile, based on GNSS horizontal movement field in the Chinese mainland from 2004 to 2007, two common models （ RRM and REHSM） are used to discuss the impact of solving models on Euler vectors and the follow-up study. The result shows that the maximum value of the difference in a block＇s entire rotation can reach 2. 6mm/a, and should not be ignored. Therefore, the results of horizontal movement are different using different kinematic block models, and this should be paid more attention in the analysis of crustal horizontal movement. 相似文献
19.
This paper provides an overview of the ideas and methods of the assessment of seismic intensity based on remote sensing and describes the models used to assess the remote sensing based synthetic seismic damage index and seismic intensity. With the data of damage information extracted from the high-resolution aerial images in the earthquake-stricken areas （Jiegu town, Yushu city, Qinghai） of the 2010 Ms7. 1 Yushu earthquake, and the data obtained through post-earthquake field investigation, the seismic damage degree and seismic intensity have been estimated. The analysis of the results shows that the seismic intensity in Yushu city is estimated as IX through the RS assessment method, which is consistent with the result estimated according to the ground surveys. The results are discussed in the last part of the paper and indicate that the RS techniques are expected to be one of the main methods used to estimate the seismic intensity values in the emergency stage. 相似文献
20.
民国期间的《嘉陵江日报》对1933年发生在四川省茂县叠溪的地震进行过系列报道,其中根据地质学家常隆庆先生的信函对于该地震考察情况的报道尤为详尽。过去,这些资料从未被地震历史资料的文献收录,鲜为地震工作者所知,具有较高的史料价值。整理转载这6000余字的资料,并作了注释和说明,相信能够为今后的地震史料研究提供参考。 相似文献