首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 343 毫秒
1.
The time and spatial feature of the regional seismicity triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17,1995, was studied. The concerned region is about several hundred kilometers in length and breadth surrounding the epicenter (33°～37°N, 133°～138°E). It is divided into 16 subregions. The seismicity of these subregions from January of 1976 to June of 1996 has been analyzed. It is showed that,① there were significant seismicity changes in 10 subregions triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995. These changes passed a Z statistic test exceeding 0.95 confidence level and the greatest epicenter distance of these subregions was 280 km;②seismicity changes were triggered within 1～5 days in three subregions near the main shock while in other subregions the seismicity changes were triggered within several ten days after the main shock;③ the greatest triggered event is 5.4, which is about the same size as the greatest aftershock;④the regional stress change resulted from the main shock may be the triggered mechanism of the regional seismicity.  相似文献   

2.
The goal of this study was to estimate the stress field acting in the Irpinia Region, an area of southern Italy that has been struck in the past by destructive earthquakes and that is now characterized by low to moderate seismicity. The dataset are records of 2,352 aftershocks following the last strong event: the 23 November 1980 earthquake (M 6.9). The earthquakes were recorded at seven seismic stations, on average, and have been located using a three-dimensional (3D) P-wave velocity model and a probabilistic, non-linear, global search technique. The use of a 3D velocity model yielded a more stable estimation of take-off angles, a crucial parameter for focal mechanism computation. The earthquake focal mechanisms were computed from the P-wave first-motion polarity data using the FPFIT algorithm. Fault plane solutions show mostly normal component faulting (pure normal fault and normal fault with a strike-slip component). Only some fault plane solutions show strike-slip and reverse faulting. The stress field is estimated using the method proposed by Michael (J Geophys Res 92:357–368, 1987a) by inverting selected focal mechanisms, and the results show that the Irpinia Region is subjected to a NE–SW extension with horizontal σ 3 (plunge 0°, trend 230°) and subvertical σ 1 (plunge 80°, trend 320°), in agreement with the results derived from other stress indicators.  相似文献   

3.
Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).  相似文献   

4.
In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.  相似文献   

5.
应用系统整体稳定和局部不稳定两种状态预测地震的思想,根据历史地震分布及地震构造环境等选定２９°～３４°３０′Ｎ,１１０°～１２５°Ｅ区域作为相对独立的地震活动暂定态系统．寻找其内部非线性区,判定该区域内地震活动趋势和未来应重点关注的地区．判断结果与１９９６年１１月南黄海地震基本对应  相似文献   

6.
This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north part of North China (113°～119° E, 38°～42° N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjustment and so on by the software ＂The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infrared Anomaly＂, inversed the earth surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized.Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen.  相似文献   

7.
Large data sets covering large areas and time spans and composed of many different independent sources raise the question of the obtained degree of harmonization. The present study is an analysis of the harmonization with respect to the moment magnitude M w within the earthquake catalogue for central, northern, and northwestern Europe (CENEC). The CENEC earthquake catalogue (Grünthal et al., J Seismol, 2009) contains parameters for over 8,000 events in the time period 1000–2004 with magnitude M w ≥ 3.5. Only about 2% of the data used for CENEC have original M w magnitudes derived directly from digital data. Some of the local catalogues and data files providing data give M w, but calculated by the respective agency from other magnitude measures or intensity. About 60% of the local data give strength measures other than M w, and these have to be transformed by us using available formulae or new regressions based on original M w data. Although all events are thus unified to M w magnitude, inhomogeneity in the M w obtained from over 40 local catalogues and data files and 50 special studies is inevitable. Two different approaches have been followed to investigate the compatibility of the different M w sets throughout CENEC. The first harmonization check is performed using M w from moment tensor solutions from SMTS and Pondrelli et al. (Phys Earth Planet Inter 130:71–101, 2002; Phys Earth Planet Inter 164:90–112, 2007). The method to derive the SMTS is described, e.g., by Braunmiller et al. (Tectonophysics 356:5–22, 2002) and Bernardi et al. (Geophys J Int 157:703–716, 2004), and the data are available in greater extent since 1997. One check is made against the M w given in national catalogues and another against the M w derived by applying different empirical relations developed for CENEC. The second harmonization check concerns the vast majority of data in CENEC related to earthquakes prior to 1997 or where no moment tensor based M w exists. In this case, an empirical relation for the M w dependence on epicentral intensity (I 0) and focal depth (h) was derived for 41 master events, i.e., earthquakes, located all over central Europe, with high-quality data. To include also the data lacking h, the corresponding depth-independent relation for these 41 events was also derived. These equations are compared with the different sets of data from which CENEC has been composed, and the goodness of fit is demonstrated for each set. The vast majority of the events are very well or reasonably consistent with the respective relation so that the data can be said to be harmonized with respect to M w, but there are exceptions, which are discussed in detail.  相似文献   

8.
Excavations in the former Roman provincial capital of Pannonia Superior, Carnuntum, 40 km east of Vienna revealed damaged masonry structures from many parts of the ancient settlements. A compilation of structurally damaged buildings has formerly been given by Kandler (Acta Archaeol Acad Sci Hung, 41:313–336, 1989), who related damage to an earthquake in the middle of the fourth century a.d. This paper reviews and supplements these data, and discusses the significance of the style of damage. It is concluded that seismic damage is the only likely interpretation for the damaging mechanism. Although archaeological age dating for the individual collapsed buildings only constrains the timing of their destruction to a few decades around 350 a.d., we assume a single damaging event. In spite of the restrictions on damage assessment by the nature of the archaeological data, it is possible to give a reasonable appraisal of macroseismic intensity. The tentative seismological interpretation of damage leads to an intensity estimate of about nine of the European macroseismic scale (EMS-1998). Comparison with macroseismic data of modern earthquakes in the region, which show a rapid decrease of intensity with distance form the epicentre, indicate a near-by seismic source unless exceptionally high epicentral intensities are assumed for the fourth century event. The most likely source is an active sinistral strike-slip fault (Lassee Fault) passing about 8 km NW of the archaeological site. The fault belongs to Vienna Basin fault system with about 2 mm sinistral movement per year. The system is characterized by fault segmentation and distinct seismicity along the different segments. Moderate seismicity during the last centuries at the southern segments (e.g., Schwadorf 1927, I 0=8) strongly contrasts from the Lassee fault segment with Carnuntum as the only known severe earthquake. The earthquake of Carnuntum provides evidence for the overall seismic style of deformation along this segment, which previously has not been regarded seismically active. Also, the fourth century earthquake is the strongest event known from the Vienna Basin fault so far.  相似文献   

9.
In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°～120°E,29°～42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu≥8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.  相似文献   

10.
According to geological tectonics and seismic activites this paper devided North China (30°–45°N, 105°–130°E) into four areas. We analyzed the North China earthquake catalogue from 1970 to 1986 (from 1965 to 1986 for Huabei, the North China, plain region) and identified forty-two bursts of aftershock. Seven of them occurred in aftershock regions of strong earthquakes and seventeen of them in the seismic swarm regions. The relation between strong earthquakes with the remaining eighteen bursts of aftershocks has been studied and tested statistically in this paper. The result of statistical testing show that the random probabilityp of coincidence of bursts of aftershock with subsequent strong earthquakes is less than six percent. By Xu’sR scoring method the efficacy of predicting strong earthquake from bursts of aftershock is estimated greater than 39 percent. Following the method proposed in the paper we analyzed the earthquake catalogue of China from 1987 to June, 1988. The results show that there was only one burst of aftershock occurred on Jan. 6, 1988 withM=3.6 in Xiuyan of Northeast China. It implicates that a potential earthquake withM S⩽5 might occur in one year afterwards in the region of Northeast China. Actually on Feb. 25, 1988 an earthquake withM S=5.3 occurred in Zhangwu of Northeast China. Another example is Datong-Yanggao shock on October 18, 1989 which is a burst of aftershock. Three hours after an expected shock withM =6.1 took place in the same area. Two examples above have been tested in practical prediction and this shows that bursts of aftershocks are significant in predicting strong earthquakes. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 273–280, 1991. Part of earthquake catalogue is from Jinbiao Chen, Peiyan Chen and Quanlin Li.  相似文献   

11.
We investigated whether accelerated seismic strain release precedes large earthquakes occurring in and around the Sistan Suture Zone, Eastern Iran. Online catalogs of teleseismic events occurring post-1960 within the region 27.0°–37.0°N, 55.0°–65.0°E, report five M w > 7.0 earthquakes, namely, 1968 Dasht-e-Bayaz, 1978 Tabas, 1979 Khuli-Buniabad, 1981 Sirch and 1997 Zirkuh-e-Q’aenat events. We defined four earthquake test episodes, 1968–1978, 1978–1981, 1979–1981, and 1981–1997, with all catalogued intermediate events having magnitudes within 2.0 units that of the final large event. Using the 1968 event as the starting point, we investigated possible increased moderate earthquake activity patterns prior to the large events of 1978, 1981 and 1997 by examining if the cumulative Benioff strain released from such preceding events followed a power law time-to-failure. Our investigation seem to suggest that the 1978, 1981 and 1997 events (i) followed a period of accelerated moderate earthquake activity and (ii) the radius of their optimal critical region, R, scaled with their magnitude, M, according to the scaling law log R ∝ 0.36 M. Our suggestions conform to those proposed by similar investigations in varied seismotectonic regimes.  相似文献   

12.
A great earthquake of M S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.  相似文献   

13.
We characterize the Kamchatka seismicity for the period 2005–2007. Regional catalogs of Kamchatka earthquakes were used to develop 2D distributions of parameters of background seismicity. The characteristics we consider include the activity A 10, the slope of the recurrence curve γ, the parameters involved in the methods RTL, ΔS, and the “Z-function”, as well as the control of earthquake clustering. We have detected the space-time agreement between the anomalies exhibited by several parameters.  相似文献   

14.
从大尺度和小尺度两方面研究郯庐断裂带苏鲁段地壳介质非均匀性。使用地震波数据,研究了郯庐断裂带苏鲁段地壳速度结构的非均匀性,单位虚波Qmps的非均匀性,地壳介质泊松比的非均匀性,反映地壳介质小尺度非均匀性的分层κ值和y值。计算了1668年郯城8 1/2级地震震源区长度和沿断裂带的震源区边界,根据地震构造和地震活动性确定断裂的闭锁段,地震应力的积累单元和调整单元。对比1668年郯城8 1/2级地震的地壳介质状况,将各种非均匀性参数综合分析,结果表明,各种参数指向一致,未来大震的可能区域是33°-34.5°N,118°-118.8°E的北北东向区域,震级可达8级。  相似文献   

15.
ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｉｎｃｅｔｈｅ１９６０′ｓ,ｔｈｅｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｍｏｄｅｒｎｓｃｉｅｎｃｅａｎｄｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｙｈａｓｇｒａｄｕａｌｙｍａｄｅｉｔｐｏｓｉｂｌｅｔｏｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓａｎｄｈａｓｐｒｏｍｏｔ...  相似文献   

16.
Three-dimensional attenuation structures are related to the subsurface heterogeneities present in the earth crust. An algorithm for estimation of three-dimensional attenuation structure in the part of Garhwal Himalaya, India has been presented by Joshi (Curr Sci 90:581–585, 2006b; Nat Hazards 43:129–146, 2007). In continuation of our earlier approach, we have presented a method in which strong motion data have been used to estimate frequency-dependent three-dimensional attenuation structure of the region. The border district of Pithoragarh in the Higher Himalaya, India, lies in the central seismic gap region of Himalaya. This region falls in the seismic zones IV and V of the seismic zoning map of India. A dense network consisting of eight accelerographs has been installed in this region. This network has recorded several local events. An algorithm based on inversion of strong motion digital data is developed in this paper to estimate attenuation structure at different frequencies using the data recorded by this network. Twenty strong motion records observed at five stations have been used to estimate the site amplification factors using inversion algorithm defined in this paper. Site effects obtained from inversion has been compared with that obtained using Nakamura (1988) and Lermo et al. (Bull Seis Soc Am 83:1574–1594, 1993) approach. The obtained site amplification term has been used for correcting spectral acceleration data at different stations. The corrected spectral acceleration data have been used as an input to the developed algorithm to avoid effect of near-site soil amplification term. The attenuation structure is estimated by dividing the entire area in several three-dimensional block of different frequency-dependent shear wave quality factor Q β (f). The input to this algorithm is the spectral acceleration of S phase of the corrected accelerogram. The outcome of the algorithm is given in terms of attenuation coefficient and source acceleration spectra. In the present study, this region has been divided into 25 rectangular blocks with thickness of 10 km and surface dimension of 12.5 × 12.1 km, respectively. Present study gives three-dimensional attenuation model of the region which can be used for both hazard estimation and simulation of strong ground motion.  相似文献   

17.
Introduction The January 10, 1998 Zhangbei-Shangyi, Hebei Province, earthquake has been the third large event of magnitude 6.0 and greater since the 1976 great Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 in the northern China (33皛42癗, 110皛124癊). Before this event, there were only two events of magnitude 6.0 and greater occurred in or around the Tangshan area since 1976: the M=6.9 Ninghe, Tianjin, earthquake of November 15, 1976 and the M=6.2 Hangu, Tianjin, earthquake of May 12, 1977. The …  相似文献   

18.
Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …  相似文献   

19.
收集康定地震区及周边（99.6°~105.2°E,27.8°~33.0°N范围内）连续GPS观测站的资料求解站速度场,采用刚性-线弹性运动方程计算方法,拟合计算得到研究区域规格网格点（0.4°×0.4°）的速度值和主应变率值。基于该结果分析研究区内的运动特征和应变场变化情况,并讨论其与地震孕育发生的关系。分析结果表明,芦山7.0级地震发生前研究区呈现应变能量积累态势,而地震之后研究区呈应变能量释放调整态势,2014年康定地震的发生就是该区构造运动调整下的产物。  相似文献   

20.
Decelerating generation of preshocks in a narrow (seismogenic) region and accelerating generation of other preshocks in a broader (critical) region, called decelerating–accelerating seismic strain (D-AS) model has been proposed as appropriate for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. An attempt is made in the present work to identify such seismic strain patterns and estimate the corresponding probably ensuing large mainshocks (M ≥ 7.0) in south Japan (30–38° N, 130–138° E). Two such patterns have been identified and the origin time, magnitude, and epicenter coordinates for each of the two corresponding probably ensuing mainshocks have been estimated. Model uncertainties of predicted quantities are also given to allow an objective forward testing of the efficiency of the model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号