共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
海面水位各种高度的出现频率在海洋工程和航运中具有重要意义。为了得出其分布，最直接和可靠的方法当然是利用长期实测资料进行统计。但是在需要获得水位分布的地点往往没有足够长期的资料，这时就必须采用其他的方法来推算。
我国近海引起水位升降的主要因素是天文潮，故利用潮汐调和常数推算天文潮并考虑到到非天文因素的水位变化是一个比较可靠的办法。这个方法比较准确，但需要进行潮汐预报，计算量比较大。本文提出的方法所涉及的计算量很小，但仍能获得较好的效果。这个方法的基本出发点是：由于不同地点海面水位分布有一定的共性，水位分布和它的数字特征之间有密切的关系，而数字特征又决定于潮汐调和常数及非天文水位标准差，因而可利用潮汐调和常数及非天文水位标准差求得数字特征，然后进一步得出水位分布。这个方法所用到的数字特征为标准差、偏度和峰度，它们汉语拼音的第一个字母分别为B,P和F，故这个方法被称为BPF 法。
1977年我们提出 BPF 法时，主要应用于海图深度基准面，应用中的有关问题将另文讨论。 相似文献
2.
This paper concerns the calculation of the wave crest height exceedance probabilities in fully nonlinear mixed sea states. The exceedance probabilities have been calculated by incorporating a fully nonlinear wave model into a Transformed Rayleigh method. This is an efficient approach to the calculation of wave crest exceedance probabilities and, as all of the calculations are performed in the probability domain, avoids the need for long time-domain simulations. The nonlinear mixed sea states studied include a swell dominated sea state, two wind sea dominated sea states, and two states of mixed wind sea and swell with comparable energy. The wave steepness influence and the finite water depth effects are also considered in the study. The accuracy and efficiency of the Transformed Rayleigh method are validated by comparing the results predicted using the method with those predicted by using the Monte Carlo simulation method, the theoretical Rayleigh method and some empirical formulas. 相似文献
3.
The long-term variation and seasonal variation of sea level have a notable effect on the calculation of engineering water level. Such an effect is first analyzed in this paper. The maximal amplitude of inter-annual anomaly of monthly mean sea level along the China coast is larger than 60 cm. Both the storm surge disaster and cold wave disaster are seasonal disasters in various regions, so the water level corresponding to the 1% of the cumulative frequency in the cumulative frequency curve of hourly water level data for different seasons in various sea areas is different from design water level, for example, the difference between them reaches maximum in June, July and August for northern sea area, and maximum in September, October and November for Southern China Sea. The hourly water level data of 19 gauge stations along the China coast are analyzed. Firstly, the annual mean sea level for every station is obtained; secondly, linear chan ging rates of annual mean sea level are obtained with the stochasti 相似文献
4.
Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data. 相似文献
5.
河口的水位变化是径潮动力相互作用的结果,但近30年来,强人类活动对河口环境的影响已远超环境自我修复能力,导致水位发生异变。为研究这种变化,本文选取人类活动影响剧烈的珠江磨刀门河口作为研究区域,采用Copula方法定量分析在同一上下边界(上游流量和口外海平面)下由强人类活动引起的水位异变。结果表明:1)强人类活动后,河道地形下切显著,外海海平面对沿程各站水位的线性影响增强,上游马口流量对水位的线性影响减弱。2)强人类活动后甘竹至灯笼山站同概率水位事件明显降低;三灶海平面呈上升趋势;马口流量分布特性变化不明显。3)水位与海平面、流量的联合依赖关系发生明显改变,低水位与海平面关系的敏感度增加,而高水位与海平面关系的敏感度下降。低水位与流量关系的敏感度基本不变,而高水位与珠江流量关系的敏感度明显下降。4)强人类活动后各站水位变化幅度变窄,在相同概率海平面及流量驱动下,强人类活动后各站水位均有明显下降,水位与海平面、流量遭遇概率为0.1—0.9时,其月均水位下降幅度达0.01—1.24m。低海平面和低流量联合驱动下各站水位的下降幅度明显小于高海平面和高流量联合驱动下月均水位的变幅,而且上游站位的水位下降幅度明显大于下游站位。本研究成果可为强人类活动的影响辨识及珠三角水资源的合理配置和可持续发展利用等提供技术支撑。 相似文献
6.
When only a few years of sea level observations are available to the coastal engineer concerned with the design and maintenance of coastal defences at a location, a method other than that of annual maxima analysis must be used for the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of exceptional high sea levels. The most attractive and suitable method is that of joint surge-tide probability analysis. Negligible surge-tide interaction at the location enables the simplest kinds of joint probability methods to be applied and investigated, but, if the tide and surge components cannot be regarded as independent, it does entail computations of increasing complexity and length whilst of diminishing accuracy. It is shown how a detailed tide and interaction analysis for two major ports in close proximity can reveal substantial differences in interaction behaviour and hence the applicability of joint probability methods. 相似文献
7.
灰度共生矩阵纹理特征对SAR海冰漂移监测的增强性能研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
海冰漂移监测对气候变化分析、船只航行、海上石油平台等海上活动安全作业具有重要意义。当前主流的SAR海冰漂移监测方法多是基于SAR灰度图开展的,其受噪声、环境等因素的影响较大,导致其在海冰漂移探测时,特征失配率高,匹配正确率低。针对这一问题,本文尝试利用SAR海冰纹理特征来增强海冰漂移探测性能。首先对比分析了8种纹理特征对海冰漂移探测中特征匹配的增强性能,筛选出能够有效增强特征匹配性能的最优纹理特征;其次进一步分析了海冰类型、入射角和分辨率对基于纹理特征的海冰漂移探测性能增强的影响。实验结果表明,均值是最优的纹理特征,与SAR强度图相比,特征匹配正确率提高了约7%。 相似文献
8.
A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities. 相似文献
9.
The fatigue assessment plays an increasing role for the offshore structural safety. Many fatigue assessment methods have been developed for this purpose. Among those methods, the time domain method is regarded as the most accurate method but less adopted in practice due to time consuming. In order to improve the efficiency of the time domain method, an innovative block partition and equivalence method of the wave scatter diagram is developed for offshore structural fatigue assessment. After the wave scatter diagram is partitioned into several blocks, the newly developed method, involves determination of the equivalent wave height, wave period and occurrence probability of the representative sea states based on modified energy equivalent principle. The equivalent wave period of the representative sea state is calculated via the spectral moment formula in which the equivalent spectral moments of zero and second order are obtained based on the weighted averaging principle. Combining with the determined wave period, the equivalent significant wave height can be determined by reversing the wave spectrum integral formula, where the equivalent wave energy of a divided block of the wave scatter diagram is modified by introducing a factor to compensate the effect of low- and high-amplitude cycles fatigue damage. The equivalent occurrence probability is equal to the summation of the original sea states’ occurrence probability within the divided block. The developed method has the advantage of preserving the stochastic characteristics of the short term sea states within the divided block during determining the representative sea state. At the same time the newly developed method has no limitation on block partition and can be applied on different offshore structure. Two structural models, a fixed mono-pile platform and a floating semi-submersible platform, are demonstrated in the numerical examples. Results indicate that the newly developed method is robust, computationally affordable, and accurate within engineering expectations. 相似文献
10.
Extreme sea levels at European coasts and their changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are considered, including a method to analyze extreme sea levels and to assess their changes in a consistent way at different sites. The approach is based on using a combination of statistical tools and dynamical modelling as well as observational data and scenarios for potential future developments. The analysis is made for both time series of extreme sea levels and individually for the different components contributing to the extremes comprising (i) mean sea level changes, (ii) wind waves and storm surges and (iii), for relevant places, river flows. It is found that while regionally results vary in detail, some general inferences can be obtained. In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles. Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show substantial long-term trends. It is expected that this situation will continue for the upcoming decades and that long-term variability dominates over long-term trends at least for the coming decades. 相似文献
11.
利用《西北太平洋热带气旋年鉴》资料,简要分析了影响上海地区可能最高潮位的台风路径、强度变化特征.分析表明,造成上海地区严重风暴潮的台风路径有3种类型,它们分别是登陆浙江沿海西行类、近海北上类和正面袭击上海类.上海及其近海区域台风强度随纬度增加而减弱的变化特征明显,在东海北部,近50a内尚未出现过中心气压低于920hPa的台风.利用特定的统计模式,根据假想台风路径、强度变化给出的可能最大增水只有210cm,其值明显偏小,认为用统计方法进行上海地区最大可能增水的估算似乎不合适.在考虑可能变化的台风路径、强度、移动速度以及天文大潮汛等综合因素后,利用高分辨率ECOM-Si的数值模式计算出的上海地区(吴淞)可能最大增水是由5612台风以10km/h速度北抬纬度2°并取所在位置的历史最低气压值造成的,其可能最大增水为367cm,如以长江口区天文可能高潮值420cm计算,则获得长江口的最大可能水位为787cm. 相似文献
12.
垂直集成采样法在234Th—238U不平衡研究海洋新生产力中的应用 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
对基于梯形积分原理的集成采样法的可行性在理论上进行了阐述,并在厦门湾和南海北部的5个站位分别采集不同深度的水样和由这些水样按一定比例混合而成的集成水样进行了现场研究,结果表明两种采样方法经不可逆稳态清除模型得出的溶解态234Th的清除通量、颗粒态234Th的输出通量及溶解态、颗粒态234Th的停留时间基本一致,证实了垂直集成采样法的可行性与可靠性。这种新的采样方案为今后充分发挥234Th法的优势,在更大空间尺度上进行新生产力的研究提供了可靠的保证。 相似文献
13.
14.
15.
16.
Robust prediction of extreme motions during wind farm support vessel(WFSV)operation is an important safety concern that requires further extensive research as offshore wind energy industry sector widens.In particular,it is important to study the safety of operation in random sea conditions during WFSV docking against the wind tower,while workers are able to get on the tower.Docking is performed by thrusting vessel fender against wind tower(an alternative docking way by hinging is not studied here).In this paper,the finite element software AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads,acting on a specific maintenance ship under actual sea conditions.Excessive roll may occur during certain sea conditions,especially in the beam sea,posing a risk to the crew transfer operation.The Bohai Sea is the area of diverse industrial activities such as offshore oil production,wave and wind power generation,etc.This paper advocates a novel method for estimating extreme roll statistics,based on Monte Carlo simulations(or measurements).The ACER(averaged conditional exceedance rate)method and its modification are presented in brief detail in Appendix.The proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction,utilizing available data efficiently.In this study the estimated return level values,obtained by ACER method,are compared with the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method.Based on the overall performance of the proposed method,it is concluded that the ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme vessel roll.The described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage,while defining optimal boat parameters would minimize potential roll. 相似文献
17.
Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast. 相似文献
18.
The accurate prediction of extreme excursion and mooring force of floating offshore structures due to multi-variete environmental conditions which requires the joint probability analysis of environmental conditions for the worst case situation is still impractical as the processing of large amount of met-ocean data is required. On the other hand, the simplified multiple design criteria (e.g. the N-year wave with associated winds and currents) recommended by API known as traditional method does lead neither to the N-year platform response nor to the N-year mooring force. Therefore, in order to reduce the level of conservatism as well as uncertainties involved in the traditional method the response-based method can be used as a reliable alternative approach. In this paper this method is described. In order to perform the calculations faster using large databases of sea states, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is designed and employed. In the paper the response-based method is applied to a 200,000 tdw FPSO and the results are discussed. 相似文献
19.
20.
Knowledge of the extent of burial of bottom sitting sea mines is critical to mine detection due to the significantly degraded capabilities of mine-hunting systems when the mines are buried. To provide an enhanced capability for predicting mine burial in support of U.S. Navy mine countermeasure (MCM) operations, an expert system approach to predicting sea mine burial has been developed. This expert system serves as a means to synthesize previous and current research on sea mine burial due to impact upon deployment and subsequently due to scour, the two dominant burial mechanisms in littoral waters. Prediction systems for impact and scour burial have been implemented as simple Bayesian networks whose probabilistic basis provides means of accounting for the inherent uncertainties associated with mine deployment methods, simplified physics-based burial models, and environmental variability. Examples of burial predictions and comparisons to results from field experiments are illustrated. In addition, a proposed risk metric is developed and applied to provide a geospatial mapping of mine burial probability. 相似文献