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1.
Ram Bichar Singh Yadav Jayant Nath Tripathi Bal Krishna Rastogi Mridul Chandra Das Sumer Chopra 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(11):1331-1342
Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian
sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake
of June 12, 1897 (M
w
8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M
w
8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of
the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull,
Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood
has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated
and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample
mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected
mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The
estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of
the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17
(2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022)
years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009). 相似文献
2.
Ram Bichar Singh Yadav Jayant Nath Tripathi Bal Krishna Rastogi Sumer Chopra 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(9-10):1813-1833
The Gujarat and adjoining region falls under all four seismic zones V, IV, III and II of the seismic zoning map of India, and is one of the most seismically prone intracontinental regions of the world. It has experienced two large earthquakes of magnitude M w 7.8 and 7.7 in 1819 and 2001, respectively and several moderate earthquakes during the past two centuries. In the present study, the probability of occurrence of earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 has been estimated during a specified time interval for different elapsed times on the basis of observed time intervals between earthquakes using three stochastic models namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. A complete earthquake catalogue has been used covering the time interval of 1819 to 2006. The whole region has been divided into three major seismic regions (Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh) on the basis of seismotectonics and geomorphology of the region. The earthquake hazard parameters have been estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithmic of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to test the suitability of models in three different regions. It was found that the Weibull model fits well with the actual data in Saurashtra and Kachchh regions, whereas Lognormal model fits well in Mainland Gujarat. The mean intervals of occurrence of earthquakes are estimated as 40.455, 20.249 and 13.338 years in the Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh region, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur at a time later than some specific time from the last earthquake) for the earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 reaches 0.9 after about 64 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra, about 49 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 29 years from the last earthquake (2006) in the Kachchh region. The conditional probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur during some specific time interval after a certain elapsed time from last earthquake) is also estimated and it reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 during the time interval of about 57 to 66 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra region, 31 to 51 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 21 to 28 years from the last earthquake (2006) in Kachchh region. 相似文献
3.
本文基于Lomnitz提出的MRI理论,用"累积地震矩(CSM)"算法对全球1900—1999年7级以上的地震进行了处理,试图通过分析大震前CSM图像的变化,来判断地震发生的可能性。对不同地区的6个地震震前CSM图像的分析表明:7级以上地震的CSM图像在震前5到10年内会改变,大部分地震发生在CSM的高值区或次高值区。通过实际运算发现:在不同的地区应使用不同的值可获得较好的结果,用于计算的地震数越多,获得的结果越好。有些大地震前CSM异常区域不是唯一的,往往会出现几个,这可能与研究区域的地震活动性有关。因此,笔者认为:若要获得可靠的CSM图像,除应当考虑不同地区的小震活动水平外,还应考虑地震断层对震后能量分布影响。统计结果表明:在目标地震发生后,下一次地震在空间上发生在原地及2度距离范围内的概率较大,在3度以外区域发生的概率相差不大;在时间上,发生在原地区震后1年内的概率最高,这可能与余震活动有关;在5年的时间里,下一次地震发生的次数占到全部地震的70%以上。因此,要注意大地震后,目标地震附近有地震能量进一步释放的危险性。 相似文献
4.
2020年前中国大陆发生7级以上大地震频次和最大震级预测的初步研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
应用多重贝努利独立试验模型, 研究2006～2020年间大陆发生7级以上大地震的频次及其概率, 以及最大震级的预测问题。 研究结果表明, 2006~2020年间大陆发生7.0～7.9级和7.5～7.9级大地震1次以上的概率为1.00, 发生8级大地震1次以上的概率为0.67, 或者说其间肯定会发生7级大地震, 而发生10次7.0～7.9级和1次7.5～7.9级大地震的可能性最大。 若按超过概率水平0.10而论, 发生7.0～7.9级地震最少发生 8次, 最多发生 12次; 发生7.5～7.9级地震为1～4次, 发生1～2次8.0～8.9级大地震可能性最大。 2020年前中国大陆发生最大地震的震级可能为7.5~7.9级。 不排除发生 8级地震的可能。 相似文献
5.
震级上限是指一个地区可能发生地震的最大震级,其概率意义为发生超过该震级地震的概率几乎为0.在有些地区,由于对其内部的地震构造研究和认识存有局限性,很难根据构造或者地质学的原则来确定震级上限.因此,根据数学模型,采用统计手段,使用地震活动性资料来计算震级上限的估计值是一种可行的方法.本文根据截断的G-R关系模型,采用最大似然计算方法,使用东北地震区的地震目录,计算了东北地震区震级上限,结果表明东北地震区的震级上限应为Mu=7.5左右.计算中我们考虑了不同震级的转换、震级误差的修正以及计算方法的影响.最终结果表明,不论采用何种方案进行计算,东北地震区的震级上限值均始终保持在7.5左右,这说明我们采用本文中方法计算得到的东北地震区的震级上限值是合理可信的,同时也说明在以往的研究中对东北地震区震级上限的估计大都是偏小的. 相似文献
6.
概述四川7.0级以上大震前观测场地的异常情况。在核实2个大震震前异常的基础上,将传统异常判别方法进行汇总。总结近年来针对跨断层监测数据进行分析进而识别异常的方法:原始数据反映的断层活动速率异常以及转折异常。在此基础上,引入小波分析的方法对大震前的异常进行判别。对小波分解得到的两个趋势项进行分析,发现了大震与小波分解项异常的对应性。最后,基于对原始数据和小波分解项的分析,提出利用跨断层数据分析大震前兆的参考意见,为以后的震前异常研究工作提供了基础。 相似文献
7.
Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
R. B. S. Yadav T. M. Tsapanos Yusuf Bayrak G. Ch. Koravos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(3):283-297
A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M max, β value of G–R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M W ≥ 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow (h ≤ 70 km) and intermediate depth (h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges, Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya. 相似文献
8.
Muhammad N.Mushtaq Muhammd Tahir Muhammd T.Iqbal Muhammd A.Shah Saleem Iqbal Talat Iqbal 《地震科学（英文版）》2021,34(2):114-122
Hindukush is an active subduction zone where at least one earthquake occurs on daily basis. For seismic hazard studies, it is important to develop a local magnitude scale using the data of local seismic network. We have computed local magnitude scale for Hindukush earthquakes using data from local network belonging to Center for Earthquake Studies (CES) for a period of three years, i.e. 2015–2017. A total of 26,365 seismic records pertaining to 2,683 earthquakes with magnitude 2.0 and greater, was used with hypocentral distance less than 600 km. Magnitude scale developed by using this data comes to be ML = logA + 0.929logr + 0.00298r – 1.84. The magnitude determined through formulated relation was compared with that of standard relation for Southern California and relation developed by the same authors for local network for Northern Punjab. It was observed that Hindukush region has high attenuation as compared to that of Southern California and Northern Punjab which implies that Hindukush is tectonically more disturbed as compared to the said regions, hence, seismically more active as well. We have calculated station correction factors for our network. Station correction factors do not show any pattern which probably owes to the geological and tectonic complexity of this structure. Standard deviation and variance of magnitude residuals for CES network determined using Hutton and Boore scale and scale developed in this study were compared, it showed that a variance reduction of 44.1% was achieved. Average of magnitude residuals for different distance ranges was almost zero which showed that our magnitude scale was stable for all distances up to 600 km. Newly developed magnitude scale will help in homogenization of earthquake catalog. It has been observed that b-value of CES catalog decreases when magnitude is calculated by using newly developed magnitude scale. 相似文献
9.
Jayant Nath Tripathi 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(1):119-130
Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M
w
= 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001). 相似文献
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11.
ＰｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｉｎＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄｂｅｆｏｒｅＡ．Ｄ．２００５ＸＩＡＯ－ＱＩＮＧＷＡＮＧ（王晓青），ＺＨＥＮＧ－ＸＩＡＮＧＦＵ（傅征祥）ａｎｄＭＩＮＧＪＩＡＮＧ（蒋铭）... 相似文献
12.
笔者曾利用统计显著性检验方法给出了中国大陆地区5级以上地震年频次与7级以上地震发生关系的判定指标,他们是：①当5级以上地震年频次N5＜10时,其后第6年我国大陆地区将发生7级以上地震;②当5级以上地震年频次N5＞31时,其后第6年我国大陆地区发生7级以上地震的可能性不大.2007年,中国大陆地区5级以上地震年频次为6次,预示2013年中国大陆地区可能会发生7级以上地震.2013年4月20日四川芦山7.0级地震再次使前一个判定指标得到验证. 相似文献
13.
INTRODUCTIONManyhlstoric andrecent eaythquakes occurred along the Zhan9lakou－Penglal fanfaut zone situatedIn h。northern part of North China seismic regl()n(Fig．l),Including Sanhe－Pinggu MS．0 earthquakeonseptemberZ,1679 and Tangshan M7．8 eal’thquake on July28,1976．Afterthe Tangshanearthquake,a seismic quiescence along this zone lasted for 20 or more yeas without M 3 6．0eafthquake．Butonjanuary20,1998 theZhangbel M6．2 eafthquake occurred·Then the seismicactivity tends to … 相似文献
14.
以2000年以来6.4级以上地震为例,研究了腾冲地区潜热通量（SLHF）在这些震例发生前后的变化特征。结果表明：腾冲地区的SLHF动态,不但在其附近发生强地震前常出现异常,而且对周边较远的强地震前也会发生异常反应;异常出现时间大都在震前1个半月以内,汶川地震前异常出现较早,发生在震前2个月之前,这可能与汶川地震震级高影响范围大有关;异常幅值与震级有关,震级越大,异常表现越强。 比如芦山7.0级地震、缅甸7.0级地震和汶川MS 8.0地震前,腾冲地区SLHF异常幅度很大,远远超过最大参考值,而姚安6.5级地震和宁洱6.4级地震前异常幅度就相对小一些。腾冲地区SLHF异常与周围强地震的发生有较好的相关性,一方面与腾冲地区的活动断裂发育、现今构造变形强烈有关,另一方面可能是由于腾冲地区火山活动强烈,温泉广泛发育,水热交换迅速,对周边构造活动感应灵敏所致。 相似文献
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16.
概率地震危险性分析是对相关区域地震活动水平的估计,是量化地震危险性的有效手段。基于泊松分布模型获得山西地区背景地震概率,结合每个单项方法预测效能获取的指标权重,采用综合概率法得到山西地区基于多种单项预测方法的地震综合概率模型。对 1985年以来山西地区 MS ≥ 5.0地震进行回溯性检验,结果表明：异常点受控于统一应力场,震前各类（包括测震、形变、电磁以及流体学科）预测指标均存在且表现出准同步性;震级大小与异常数量呈一定正相关性,震级越大,异常指标越多,综合概率值越大。 相似文献
17.
汶川地震对华东地区中强震的影响分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
汶川8.0级巨大地震发生在青藏块体与华南活动地块交界部位的龙门山断裂带上,是在青藏块体长期受印度板块NNE向推挤隆升并向东挤压的背景下形成的。统计分析表明,1900年以来,青藏块体Ms≥7.0强震和华东地区Ms≥5.0中强震存在较好的对应关系。通过概率增益模型检验这种对应关系,发现并非随机对应,而是存在一定的内在物理联系,与这两个区域存在构造关联相一致。通过β分布函数的概率计算,预测2011年之前华东地区发生5级以上中强震的概率为0.68。 相似文献
18.
19.
本文用平面问题的有限元方法,在研究云南地震与应力场关系之后,采用先计算大区域应力场,再计算小区域应力场的分步办法。 首先研究我国西南及其邻区强震活动与构造应力场的关系。计算结果说明:(1)由于印度板块不均匀推挤,在特定的边界条件下,是产生我国西南地区应力场复杂性的主要原因。(2)在印度板块的作用下,断块间运动以及板内大范围内应力场调整是西南地区强震活动的主要因素。(3)通过四个八级以上地震(海源、古浪、察隅:印度、尼泊尔)后应力场调整的研究,未来八级地震的地区有可能在川滇藏或缅甸一带。 相似文献
20.
华北地区是我国的政治、 经济和文化中心, 也是我国地震多发地区之一。 华北地区历史地震资料记载时间较早且较为连续, 是研究我国强震活动的理想试验场。 选取第三、 第四活动期M≥6.0地震目录作为基础资料研究华北地区强震活动特点。 首先探讨华北地区强震活动与活动地块、 边界带的关系, 然后从时间和空间上分析华北地区强震活动的轮回性阶段及其期幕活动特点, 最后计算未来5年华北地区发生下一次M≥6.0地震的累积概率和条件概率。 研究结果表明: ① 华北地区M≥6.0地震活动主要集中在活动地块的边界带, M≥7.0地震则全部发生在活动地块的边界带上, 同时华北地区地震应变释放速率与边界带的构造活动速率呈线性相关; ② 第四活动期各活跃幕的能量释放均低于第三活动期, 因此华北地区未来仍可能发生M≥6.0地震; ③ 第三、 第四活动期的主体活动区存在显著差异, 且第四活动期的强震活动较第三活动期向东迁移; ④ 在2020年年初发生第四活动期闭幕M≥6.0地震的累积概率为80%左右, 而在2022年年底前发生M≥6.0地震的条件概率为50%。 本研究可为华北地区地震大形势分析和中长期地震危险性预测提供重要参考。 相似文献