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1.
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.  相似文献   

2.
A 2D variant of the inversion method for determining velocities within the Benioff zone of Kamchatka is developed with respect to the time of seismic wave travel from the foci group to Shipunskii station located in the region where the zone outcrops at the ocean bottom. The method is based on the idea of seismic tomography on the relationship between travel time discrepancies along the focus–station path and the value of seismic slowness, which is inverse to the velocity and corresponds to the gradient of the time field or the derivative of a hodograph with respect to the distance dt/dl. From this viewpoint, the field of discrepancies observed is the difference between the experimental and theoretical values of slowness. Its averaging with respect to depth and epicentral distance in 50 × 50 km rectangular windows and subsequent inversion make it possible to obtain a discrete velocity field using the GoldenSoftware Surfer program. Resmoothing with the same software leads to a variant of continuous velocity distribution = in the axial plane of the Benioff zone. The described procedure was used to calculate the velocities in this zone of the southern Kuril Islands and southern and central Kamchatka. The principal result in the latter case is identification of a sharp jump in the velocities of body waves in the upper mantle (up to 1.3 km/s for P-waves and up to 0.8 km/s for S-waves) beneath the Kronotskii Peninsula in the 7 years before the catastrophic Kronotskii earthquake that occurred in 1997 (M = 7.9) with an upthrow focal mechanism. This jump reflects the concentration of stresses in the epicentral zone of the earthquake. This result is important for medium-term forecasting of strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
This paper addresses inhomogeneities in the short-period S-wave attenuation field in the lithosphere beneath Altai. A technique based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn and Pn waves is used. High S-wave attenuation areas are identified in the West Altai, which are related to the source zones of recent large earthquakes, viz., the 1990 Zaisan earthquake and the 2003 Chuya earthquake. Associated with the Chuya earthquake, a large ringlike seismogenic structure had been formed since 1976. It is also found that ringlike seismogenic structures are confined to high S-wave attenuation areas unrelated to large historical earthquakes. It is supposed that processes paving the way for strong earthquakes are taking place in these areas. The magnitudes of probable earthquakes are estimated using the earlier derived correlation dependences of the sizes of ringlike seismogenic structures and the threshold values of magnitudes on the energy of principal earthquakes with prevailing focal mechanisms taken into consideration. The sources of some earthquakes are likely to occur near to the planned gas pipeline route from Western Siberia to China, which should be taken into account. The relationship of anomalies in the S-wave attenuation field and the ringlike seismogenic structures to a high content of deep-seated fluids in the lithosphere is discussed.  相似文献   

4.
Tsunamis associated with the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake seriously disrupted the shallow marine ecosystem along a 2000 km stretch of the Pacific coast of Japan. The effects of the 2011 tsunamis on the soft-bottom benthic community have been relatively well studied in the intertidal zone, whereas tsunami effects on the subtidal benthos remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated populations of the world’s largest spoon worm Ikeda taenioides (Annelida: Echiura: Ikedidae) in subtidal zone of Funakoshi Bay, Tohoku District, northeastern Japan. Subtidal scuba-diving surveys at two sites in the bay showed extremely long proboscises frequently extending from small holes in the sandy seafloor shortly before and soon after the tsunami disturbances. Based on morphological and molecular identification, the proboscises were revealed to be parts of I. taenioides. On 30 November 2011, 265 days after the tsunami event, many large-sized individuals with >1 m long proboscises were observed; these individuals were probably not derived from post-tsunami larval recruitment but more likely survived the tsunami disturbances. This is surprising because other sympatric megabenthos (e.g. spatangoid echinoids and venerid bivalves) and seagrass beds were almost completely destroyed (although they later recovered) by the tsunamis in this bay. The burrows of I. taenioides are known to be very deep (70–90 cm), which may have sheltered them from the impacts of the tsunamis. Our observations suggest that the effects of the 2011 tsunamis on benthos in soft sediments may differ depending on their burrowing depth.  相似文献   

5.
Some characteristics of seismicity in Southern California are studied. It is found that ring-shaped seismicity structures with threshold magnitudes Mth of 4.1, 4.1, and 3.8 formed prior to three large (M w > 7.0) earthquakes in 1992, 1999, and 2010, respectively. The sizes of these structures are several times smaller than for intracontinental strike-slip events with similar magnitudes. Two ring-shaped structures are identified in areas east of the city of Los Angeles, where relatively large earthquakes have not occurred for at least 150 years. The magnitudes of large events which can occur in the areas of these structures are estimated on the basis of the previously obtained correlation dependence of ring sizes on magnitudes of the strike-slip earthquakes. Large events with magnitudes of M w = 6.9 ± 0.2 and M w = 8.6 ± 0.2 can occur in the area to the east of the city of Los Angeles and in the rupture zone of the 1857 great Fort Tejon earthquake, respectively. We believe that ring-structure formation, similarly to the other regions, is connected with deep-seated fluid migration.  相似文献   

6.
We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m. It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more pronounced.  相似文献   

7.
本文描述了采自南麂列岛小柴屿岩相潮间带的一海洋底栖硅藻新种，南麂侧链藻（Pleurosira nanjiensis sp.nov.）。本研究使用光学显微镜和扫描电子显微镜对该种进行了形态学观察，并基于SSU rRNA和rbcL基因重建了其系统发育关系。南麂侧链藻具有壳面橄榄形、椭圆形或圆形，壳面隆起，单眼突出于壳表面，2–3个唇状突（rimportulae），放射排列的线纹等特征，区别于其他侧链藻。  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

In the recent seismological literature, several articles appeared which suggested that major earthquakes are likely to occur in the near future, in the various seismic gaps around the rim of the Pacific Basin. Although the direct effects of these earthquakes may be confined to local areas, the tsunamis that will generate are expected to travel Pacific Ocean wide and cause great destruction even at far off places around the Pacific Ocean. Here, the various approaches to delineating the tsunami hazard are discussed and some suggestions are made.  相似文献   

9.
We perform the analysis of tsunami waves in the shelf zone of the Crimean peninsula generated by underwater earthquakes whose epicentres are located near the lower boundary of the continental slope. For this purpose, we use a one-dimensional nonlinear dissipative numerical model of long waves. The investigated distributions of the depth of the basin correspond to four points of the south coast of the Crimean peninsula. We use the empirical dependences of parameters of the sources of tsunami waves on the magnitude of the earthquake obtained earlier for the Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the height, vertical climb, and duration of tsunami waves increase with the magnitude of the earthquake. For equal magnitudes of the earthquake, the highest tsunamis on the south coast of the Crimea are observed between Alushta and Yalta. We also deduced a generalized regression dependence of the height of tsunami waves near the coast on the magnitude of the earthquake. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev  相似文献   

10.
The spatiotemporal variability of equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content (HC) and subsurface heat during two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely eastern and central Pacific (EP and CP) types, is investigated using subsurface ocean heat budget analysis. Results show that HC tendencies during both types of ENSO are mainly controlled by oceanic heat advection beneath the mixed layer to the thermocline, and the role of net surface heat flux can be neglected. The most important three terms are the zonal and vertical advections of anomalous heat by climatological currents (QU 0 T′, QW 0 T′) and zonal advection of climatological heat by anomalous current (QU′T 0). The large contribution of QU 0 T′ extends from west to east along the equatorial Pacific. The considerable contribution of QU′T 0 is confined to the east of 160°W, and that of the QW 0 T′ is observed in the central Pacific between 180°E and 120°W. In particular, a major contribution of QW 0 T′ is also observed in the far eastern Pacific east of 100°W during EP ENSO. There is also a small contribution from meridional advection of climatological heat by anomalous current (QV′T 0). In contrast, the meridional advection of anomalous heat by climatological currents (QV 0 T′) and vertical advection of climatological heat by anomalous current (QW′T 0) are two damping factors in the HC tendency, with the former dominating. Differences in spatial distribution of the heat advection associated with the two types of ENSO are also presented. We define a warm water heat index (WWH) as integrated heat content above 26 kg m?3 potential density (26σ ? ) isopycnal depth within 130°E–80°W and 5°S–5°N. Further examination suggests that the recharge–discharge of WWH is involved in both types of El Niño, though with some differences. First, it takes about 42 (55) months for the evolution of a recharge–discharge cycle during an EP (CP) ENSO. Second, the EP El Niño event peaks during the discharge phase, 7–8 months after the recharge time. The CP El Niño peaks during the recharge phase, 4–5 months before the recharge time. The locations of HC anomalies in the El Niño mature phase relative to those at recharged time explain why the EP and CP El Niño peak in different stages of the recharge–discharge process.  相似文献   

11.
The Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm for the prediction of strong earthquakes has become known owing to the successful predictions of the Tokachi-oki earthquake near Hokkaido Island and the San Simeon earthquake of California in 2003, as well as to other well-documented predictions found on the Internet, some of which also proved to be successful. The RTP predictions with the use of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) data for the zone from Honshu Island to the Middle Kurile Islands deserve special attention. None of the five predictions starting in the middle of 2003, including the last one formulated for the region where the catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, with a magnitude of M = 9 occurred, was a false alarm. One distinctive feature of predictions for this region is the enormous size (about 1000 km) of alarm regions. At the same time, the relatively short alarm interval makes it possible to record a real number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.2 and higher during alarm periods, which is about five times larger than on average over the equivalent period, i.e., to reach a probability gain of about five.  相似文献   

12.
We installed a real-time operating regional observation network of Ocean-Bottom-Seismometers, connected to an electro-optical fiber communication cable, at the Sagami trough subduction zone, just south of the Tokyo metropolitan area, central Japan. The network, called ETMC, has six seismic observation sites at approximately 20 km spacing. In addition, there are three tsunami observation sites along the ETMC network to monitor the propagation process of tsunamis around the Sagami trough region.The on-line data from the ETMC has been improving the detection capability of smaller-magnitude earthquakes even at areas close to the margin of the trough. The ETMC data analyzing system, which has a function of real-time digital filtering for each seismic channel, can read the arrival times of P- and S-waves precisely, constraining well the automatic on-line hypocenter locations. The network has been providing useful information regarding the bending and downgoing process of the Philippine sea plate at the Sagami trough subduction zone.The pressure sensors of the installed network have a detection capability of tsunami wave trains with an amplitude of less than 1 cm. For example, the sensors recorded the full time history of tsunami wave trains, with mm order resolution, originating from a tsunami earthquake with 5.7 MW and the tsunami magnitude of 7.5 occurred near Tori Shima (Tori Is.) of the Izu-Bonin Is. arc on September 4, 1996. The maximum amplitude of the tsunami signals on the trough-floor was approximately 1 cm (P-P), in contrast with approximately 20 cm (0-P) at a coastal site on Izu-Oshima, near the trough. Also, the pressure sensors observed tsunamis due to a large tsunami earthquake (7.1 MW) at the northern New Guinea, on July 17, 1998.  相似文献   

13.
The results of investigating the preparation zone of the catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, near the eastern coast of Honshu Island are presented. A retrospective analysis of the focal mechanisms of deep earthquakes in the western part of the Pacific Ocean made it possible to reveal their influence on the zone of the Tohoku earthquake source. The preparation of this earthquake is also investigated within an analysis of the seismotectonic deformation processes at the regional level, which includes an estimation of the temporal trends of some key parameters, as well as the detection of their variations and the spatial confinement of anomalies to the source zone.  相似文献   

14.
The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek–Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami–earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70–250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M S(40) and M S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M w in the critical range 7.5–8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M w ~ 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms.  相似文献   

15.
An array of 5 pressure-recording inverted echo sounders (PIESs) was deployed along the Jason-2 214 ground track in the North Equatorial Current (NEC) region of the western Pacific Ocean for about 2 years from June 2012. Round-trip acoustic travel time from the bottom to the sea surface and bottom pressure measurements from PIES were converted to sea level anomaly (SLA). AVISO along-track mono-mission SLA (Mono-SLA), reference mapped SLA (Ref-MSLA), and up-to-date mapped SLA (Upd-MSLA) products were used for comparison with PIES-derived SLA (ηtot). Comparisons of ηtot with Mono-SLA revealed that hump artifact errors significantly contaminate the Mono-SLA. Differences of ηtot from both Ref-MSLA and Upd-MSLA decreased as the hump errors were reduced in mapped SLA products. Comparisons of Mono-SLA measurements at crossover points of ground tracks near the observation sites revealed large differences though the time differences of their measurements were only 1.53 and 4.58 days. Comparisons between Mono-SLA and mapped SLA suggested that mapped SLA smooths out the hump artifact errors by taking values between the two discrepant Mono-SLA measurements at the crossover points. Consequently, mapped SLA showed better agreement with ηtot at our observation sites. AVISO mapped sea surface height (SSH) products are the preferable dataset for studying SSH variability in the NEC region of the western Pacific, though some portions of hump artifact errors seem to still remain in them.  相似文献   

16.
Seismicity characteristics in the areas of Sarez Lake and the Nurek water reservoir are studied. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges (0–33 and 34–70 km) formed prior to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015 (M w = 7.2). Seismicity rings cross each other near the Usoi Dam, which formed after the strong earthquake in 1911 and led to the formation of Sarez Lake, and near the epicenter of the Pamir earthquake. In addition, three out of the four strongest events (М ≥ 6.0) recorded in the Pamir region at depths of more than 70 km since 1950 have occurred near Sarez Lake. An aggregate of the data allows us to conclude that the Pamir earthquake, despite its very large energy, refers to events related to induced seismicity. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges also formed in the Nurek water reservoir area. It is supposed that the formation of ring-shaped structures is related to the self-organization processes of a geological system, which result in the ascent of deep-seated fluids. In this respect, the lithosphere is gradually adapting to the additional load related to the filling of the water reservoir. The difference between Nurek Dam (and many other hydroelectric power stations as well) and Usoi Dam is the permanent vibration in the former case due to water falling from a height of more than 200 m. Such an effect can lead to gradual stress dissipation, resulting in the occurrence of much weaker events when compared to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015, in the areas of artificial water reservoirs.  相似文献   

17.
The species compositions of the genus Chironomus in the Curonian and Vistula lagoons are very similar, represented by Ch. plumosus and Ch. balatonicus. In the Curonian Lagoon, in addition to these two species, Ch. muratensis and the first-generation interspecific hybrid Ch. muratensis × Ch. plumosus are also found. In this lagoon, Ch. plumosus occurs most frequently (84%); Ch. balatonicus is considered a subdominant species (24%). In the Vistula Lagoon, on the contrary, the high frequency of occurrence is typical of Ch. balatonicus (89%); for Ch. plumosus, it reaches only 11%. The Ch. plumosus population occupies most of the Curonian Lagoon; Ch. balatonicus is present only in its northern part, from the village of Juodkrante to the city of Klaipeda. In the Vistula Lagoon, Ch. balatonicus is distributed over almost its entire area, while Ch. plumosus is found locally, only near the mouth of the Nogat River. The distribution of the sibling species in the lagoons is determined by the salinity gradient.  相似文献   

18.
The features of the seismic regime before the strongest earthquakes of Taiwan in the late 20th (Chi-Chi on September 21, 1999, Mw = 7.6) and the early 21st century (March 31, 2002, Mw = 7.4) are analyzed. Based on 1990–1999 and 1994–2002 data, respectively, retrospective analysis of three seismic regime parameters are studied: the total annual number of earthquakes NΣ in the range of ML = 2.5–5.5 and Mw = 3.0–7.0; the total annual quantity of released seismic energy ΣE, J; and angular coefficient b of earthquake recurrence graphs. Two explicit subperiods are revealed in the course of the seismic regime: quiescence in 1990–1996 before the Chi-Chi earthquake and in 1994–1997 before the March 2002 earthquake; in 1997–1999 and 1998–2002, respectively, seismic activation is observed. Due to the predominance of weak earthquakes during the Chi-Chi earthquake preparation, factor b appeared relatively higher (–1.16 on average); in contrast, before the March 2002 earthquake, due to the occurrence of foreshocks with Mw = 6.8–7.0, the factor b values appeared relatively lower (–0.55 and–0.74 for the quiescence and activation subperiods, respectively). Despite the fundamental difference in the seismotectonic situation between the domains where two mainshocks occurred and significantly difference energy ranges of the initial seismic events, the analysis results are similar for both earthquakes. In both cases, the mainshock occurred at the peak of released energy, which can be considered a coincidence. Solid verification of this positive tendency requires the accumulation of seismological statistics.  相似文献   

19.
Sendai Bay in northern Japan suffered serious damage from massive tsunamis generated by the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake. The physical disturbance caused by a tsunami may affect the coastal ecosystem, including the planktonic diatom community. We investigated seasonal changes in the diatom community structure at a coastal and an offshore station in Sendai Bay, from June 2011 (3 months after the tsunami) to April 2014. Diatom abundance increased at both stations during the spring. Sporadic increases were also recorded at the coastal station during the summer because of silicate input from river discharge. Seasonal succession of the diatom communities was similar at both the coastal and offshore stations. The onset of the spring bloom consisted mainly of Chaetoceros spp. when water temperatures were low. Subsequently, species such as Skeletonema costatum s.l. became dominant as salinity and nutrient concentrations decreased. Cell density decreased from summer into early winter. Leptocylindrus danicus became dominant in the summer, but was replaced by Thalassiosira cf. mala from autumn into winter. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that most of the variation in the diatom community could be explained by temperature, salinity, NO3 ?, NO2 ?, PO4 3?, and SiO2. In addition, the occurrence of diatom species before the tsunami showed a similar pattern to that after the tsunami, suggesting that the tsunami did not have a serious impact on the diatom community in Sendai Bay.  相似文献   

20.
The “seismic silence” period in the seismic gap in the region of the Komandor Islands (hereinafter, the Komandor seismic gap) is close to the duration of the maximal recurrence interval for the strongest earthquakes of the Aleutian Islands. This indicates the possibility of a strong earthquake occurring here in the nearest time. In the present work, the results of simulation for a tsunami from such an earthquake are presented. The scheme successfully used by the authors for the nearest analog—the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake—is applied. The magnitude of the supposed earthquake is assumed to be 9.0; the tsunamigenic source is about 650 km long and consists of 9 blocks. The parameters of the tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean and the characteristics of the waves on the coasts are computed for several possible scenarios of blocks’ motion. The spectral analysis of the obtained wave characteristics is made and the effects of the wave front interference are found. Simulation has shown that the wave heights at some coastal sites can reach 9 m and, thus, may cause considerable destruction and deaths.  相似文献   

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