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1.
基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。 相似文献
2.
南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
结合南海海域的地形条件、地质构造、地震学特征以及历史地震记录,在回顾总结国内外学者研究的基础上,分析了南海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,并讨论了在我国南海沿岸发生海啸灾害的潜在可能性。采用目前在国际上广泛使用的COMCOT海啸模式,对马尼拉海沟的潜在地震引发的海啸进行了数值模拟计算,计算中包含了由地震参数到海面初始变形的转换、海啸的深水传播过程以及海啸的浅水传播过程。采用三重嵌套网格,外层网格对应于大范围的深水区域,使用球坐标系下的线性控制方程;第二层网格对应中等范围的较浅水区域,使用球坐标系下的非线性控制方程;第三层网格对应小范围的浅水区域,使用直角坐标系下的非线性控制方程。由模拟计算得到的海啸传时分布、近岸海面升降强度、四个特定点上海面高度随时间变化等的结果表明,我国南海沿岸遭受海啸袭击的可能性是存在的,应进一步对南海海啸进行监测、预警和研究。COMCOT模式性能良好,可用于对南海潜在地震海啸的进一步模拟研究。 相似文献
3.
The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea. 相似文献
4.
越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。 相似文献
5.
Stefano Tinti Francesco Latino Chiocci Filippo Zaniboni Gianluca Pagnoni Giovanni de Alteriis 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2011,32(1-2):287-297
The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone. 相似文献
6.
海啸波对近岸岛礁影响的数值模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于Okada有限断层模型和非线性浅水波方程,结合高精度嵌套网格建立了越洋（中国近海）-局部-近岸岛礁的海啸生成与传播的数值模型。以三亚凤凰岛为例,首先针对2011日本地震海啸,模拟分析了海啸波沿中国沿海大陆架的传播特征及对凤凰岛的影响规律。在取得验证结果的基础上,进一步讨论了中国近海的马尼拉海沟和琉球海沟的潜在海啸源,以及环太平洋的21个潜在特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛的影响特征。依据海啸波在抵达凤凰岛的波浪特征,结合傅里叶频谱分析方法,探索了近岸岛礁对海啸波的放大效应。结果表明,中国近海一般震级的海啸和特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛存在一定影响,最大波幅接近1 m,传播时间从3 h到27 h不等。受三亚东南半岛的影响,琉球海沟激发的海啸和越洋海啸在凤凰岛的放大效应相对于马尼拉海沟较小,其频率集中在0.8×10-4~2×10-4 Hz。马尼拉海沟产生的海啸波在凤凰岛产生了较为显著的放大效应,对于凤凰岛是值得关注的高风险海啸源。 相似文献
7.
L. I. Lobkovsky B. V. Baranov K. A. Dozorova R. Kh. Mazova B. A. Kisel’man N. A. Baranova 《Oceanology》2014,54(4):519-531
The “seismic silence” period in the seismic gap in the region of the Komandor Islands (hereinafter, the Komandor seismic gap) is close to the duration of the maximal recurrence interval for the strongest earthquakes of the Aleutian Islands. This indicates the possibility of a strong earthquake occurring here in the nearest time. In the present work, the results of simulation for a tsunami from such an earthquake are presented. The scheme successfully used by the authors for the nearest analog—the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake—is applied. The magnitude of the supposed earthquake is assumed to be 9.0; the tsunamigenic source is about 650 km long and consists of 9 blocks. The parameters of the tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean and the characteristics of the waves on the coasts are computed for several possible scenarios of blocks’ motion. The spectral analysis of the obtained wave characteristics is made and the effects of the wave front interference are found. Simulation has shown that the wave heights at some coastal sites can reach 9 m and, thus, may cause considerable destruction and deaths. 相似文献
8.
The catastrophic tsunami of December 26, 2004 in Southeast Asia revealed the necessity of creating tsunami early warning systems
in the regions of the World Ocean where these systems are still absent but the potential hazard of tsunami generation exists.
The Black Sea is one of these regions. We present the general characteristic of the tsunami hazard in the Black-Sea region
and describe the most probable zones of tsunami generation, the specific features of tsunami propagation, and the parameters
of tsunamis according to the data of observations and the results of numerical simulations. We also discuss the possibility
of tsunami early warning on the basis of the operative data provided by the network of hydrometeorological and seismological
observation stations existing in this region.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 57–66, September–October, 2008. 相似文献
9.
Abstract In 1980, Murty and Loomis proposed a new, objective tsunami magnitude scale based on total tsunami energy. A list of 178 tsunamigenic earthquakes during the period 1815 to 1974 was given along with estimated tsunami magnitudes. In this study, we derived the probability distribution function of tsunami magnitudes based on the assumptions that (1) the occurrences of tsunamigenic earthquakes are a Poisson process, and (2) tsunami energy is a polynomial function of tsunami recurrence time. Using the data given by Murty and Loomis, the parameters of the distribution function are estimated. Comparison with the data shows that the derived distribution is a good representation of the distribution of the Murty‐Loomis tsunami magnitude. 相似文献
10.
This paper presents a new submarine landslide model based on the non-hydrostatic wave model NHWAVE of Ma et al. (2012). The landslide is modeled as a water–sediment mixture. The dense plume is driven by baroclinic pressure forcing introduced by spatial density variations. The model is validated using laboratory measurements of turbidity currents and of water wave generation by a granular landslide. The model is then utilized to study the dependence of landslide motion and associated tsunami wave generation on parameters including sediment settling velocity, initial depth of the landslide and slide density. Model results show that the slide motion and water waves which it generates are both sensitive to these parameters. The relative tsunamigenic response to rigid and deformable landslides of equal initial geometry and density is also examined. It is found that the wave energy is mostly concentrated on a narrow band of the dominant slide direction for the waves generated by rigid landslides, while directional spreading is more significant for waves generated by deformable landslides. The deformable landslide has larger speed and acceleration at the early stage of landslide, resulting in larger surface waves. The numerical results indicate that the model is capable of reasonably simulating tsunami wave generation by submarine landslides. 相似文献
11.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构... 相似文献
12.
A study of tsunami events in the East （Japan） Sea using continuous Galerkin finite element model, aiming at reproducing tsunami waves generated by underwater earthquakes in 1983 and 1993 respectively has been performed focusing on the geographic extent of a topographic feature in the East （Japan） Sea. Numerical models can be the proper tools to study the combined effects of realistic topography. Subsequently, using the FEM based two-dimensional model we have simulated the smoothed and flattened topographic effects by removal of Yamato Rise and seamounts for the cases of tthe 1983 Central region earthquake tsunami and the 1993 southwestern Hokkaido earthquake tsunami. The results have shown that there will be higher tsunamis along the eastern coasts of Korea in general except some areas, like Sokcho with removal of topographic highs, thus providing complicated bottom topography of the East （Japan） Sea as effective tsunami energy scattering. 相似文献
13.
S. F. Dotsenko 《Physical Oceanography》2005,15(6):363-369
We perform the numerical analysis of the propagation of tsunamis in the Black Sea from the zones of seismic generation located
to the south of the Crimea and in the northwest part of the sea. It is shown that the tsunamis induced by earthquakes in the
Crimean seismic zone are entrapped by the nearest part of the shelf and do not result in noticeable oscillations of level
in the northwest part of the sea. This enables us to explain the absence of manifestations of tsunamis in 1927, 1939, and
1966 near Odessa. The tsunami waves generated by earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea are characterized by the directivity
of their propagation. The wave height is maximum in the areas corresponding to the north and east directions of propagation.
Hence, the north coast of the sea and the Kalamit Bay (Crimean Peninsula) are characterized by elevated tsunami hazard for
earthquakes occurring in the northwest part of the Black Sea.
__________
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 46–53, November–December, 2005. 相似文献
14.
In this paper the aim is to investigate whether there are differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions on tsunami propagation. For this purpose, two numerical models of tsunami propagation are compared. One of these numerical models is a nondispersive model that uses Saint Venant equations and the other is a dispersive model that uses Boussinesq equations. The tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure (SMF) which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined. An analytical solution considering wave dispersion is developed for obtaining near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure. Numerical modeling is used at the sea surface from the common boundary called as liquid boundary with incident waves up to the coastal regions to get the tsunami amplitudes. The output of the analytical model is taken as the disturbances for the numerical method. In the numerical solutions TELEMAC-2D software system is used for both dispersive and nondispersive modeling. The results of the dispersive and nondispersive models are compared to each other. Both temporal and spatial differences in the amplitudes and wave shapes are examined. The obtained results demonstrate that there are no noticeable differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions except some special cases and some special landslide velocities. 相似文献
15.
The numerical analysis of the evolution of tsunamis is performed for the Sea of Azov. Our calculations are carried out on
a grid with steps of 500 m, as applied to seaquakes with magnitudes within the range 6–7 for 18 circular zones of generation
covering almost the entire water area of the sea. It is shown that the oscillations of the sea level in the form of cellular
waves are formed as a result of the wave reflections from the coasts. Small areas of the elevated activity of waves are formed
in the zones of irregularity of the coastline on the north coast of the sea and in the zones of shoals in the southeast part
of the basin. On the basis of the determined values of extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level, we can make a conclusion
that the tsunami hazard is quite low for the coast of the Sea of Azov. 相似文献
16.
The ∼8.15 ka Storegga submarine slide was a large (∼3000 km3), tsunamigenic slide off the coast of Norway. The resulting tsunami had run-up heights of around 10–20 m on the Norwegian coast, over 12 m in Shetland, 3–6 m on the Scottish mainland coast and reached as far as Greenland. Accurate numerical simulations of Storegga require high spatial resolution near the coasts, particularly near tsunami run-up observations, and also in the slide region. However, as the computational domain must span the whole of the Norwegian-Greenland sea, employing uniformly high spatial resolution is computationally prohibitive. To overcome this problem, we present a multiscale numerical model of the Storegga slide-generated tsunami where spatial resolution varies from 500 m to 50 km across the entire Norwegian-Greenland sea domain to optimally resolve the slide region, important coastlines and bathymetric changes. We compare results from our multiscale model to previous results using constant-resolution models and show that accounting for changes in bathymetry since 8.15 ka, neglected in previous numerical studies of the Storegga slide-tsunami, improves the agreement between the model and inferred run-up heights in specific locations, especially in the Shetlands, where maximum run-up height increased from 8 m (modern bathymetry) to 13 m (palaeobathymetry). By tracking the Storegga tsunami as far south as the southern North sea, we also found that wave heights were high enough to inundate Doggerland, an island in the southern North Sea prior to sea level rise over the last 8 ka. 相似文献
17.
Submarine channel levee systems form important hydrocarbon reservoirs in many deep marine settings and are often deposited within a structurally active setting. This study focuses on recent submarine channels that developed within a deepwater fold and thrust belt setting from the Levant Basin, eastern Mediterranean Sea. Compressional deformation within the study area is driven by the up-dip collapse of the Nile cone above the ductile Messinian Evaporites. Structures such as folds and strike slip faults exert a strong control on channel location and development over time. From this study four end-member submarine channel–structure interactions can be defined: Confinement, diversion, deflection and blocking. Each of these channel–structure interactions results in a distinct submarine channel morphology and pattern of development compared to unconfined channel levee systems. Each interaction can also be used to assess timing relationships between submarine channel development and deformation. 相似文献
18.
S. A. Beisel V. K. Gusiakov L. B. Chubarov Yu. I. Shokin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(5):508-519
Results of a numerical simulation of the action of distant tsunamis on the coast of the Russian Far East are presented. It is shown that waves generated by focuses of the strongest M9 earthquakes in the region of South Chilean coast, as well as in the region of Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, are most dangerous for this coast. Other tsunamigenic zones of the Pacific Ocean, by virtue of their geographical position, orientation of focuses, and absence of pronounced channels (submarine ridges) along paths of tsunami propagation are not dangerous for it even at a limit magnitude of submarine subduction earthquakes. The simulation results are compared with historical data about manifestations of distant tsunamis on the Russian Far East coast. 相似文献
19.
On September 16, 2015, an earthquake with magnitude of M_w 8.3 occurred 46 km offshore from Illapel, Chile,generating a 4.4-m local tsunami measured at Coquimbo. In this study, the characteristics of tsunami are presented by a combination of analysis of observations and numerical simulation based on sources of USGS and NOAA. The records of 16 DART buoys in deep water, ten tidal gauges along coasts of near-field, and ten coastal gauges in the far-field are studied by applying Fourier analyses. The numerical simulation based on nonlinear shallow water equations and nested grids is carried out to provide overall tsunami propagation scenarios, and the results match well with the observations in deep water and but not well in coasts closed to the epicenter. Due to the short distance to the epicenter and the shelf resonance of southern Peru and Chile, the maximum amplitude ranged from 0.1 m to 2 m, except for Coquimbo. In deep water, the maximum amplitude of buoys decayed from9.8 cm to 0.8 cm, suggesting a centimeter-scale Pacific-wide tsunami, while the governing period was 13–17 min and 32 min. Whereas in the far-field coastal region, the tsunami wave amplified to be around 0.2 m to 0.8 m,mostly as a result of run-up effect and resonance from coast reflection. Although the tsunami was relatively moderate in deep water, it still produced non-negligible tsunami hazards in local region and the coasts of farfield. 相似文献
20.
Revisiting the February 6th 1783 Scilla (Calabria, Italy) landslide and tsunami by numerical simulation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
On February 6th, 1783, a landslide of about 5 × 106 m3 triggered by a 5.8 M earthquake occurred near the village of Scilla (Southern Calabria, Italy). The rock mass fell into the sea as a rock avalanche, producing a tsunami with a run-up as high as 16 m. The tsunami killed about 1,500 people, making it one of the most catastrophic tsunamis in Italian history. A combined landslide-tsunami simulation is proposed in this paper. It is based on an already performed reconstruction of the landslide, derived from subaerial and submarine investigation by means of geomorphological, geological and geomechanical surveys. The DAN3D model is used to simulate the landslide propagation both in the subaerial and in the submerged parts of the slope, while a simple linear shallow water model is applied for both tsunami generation and propagation. A satisfying back-analysis of the landslide propagation has been achieved in terms of run-out, areal distribution and thickness of the final deposit. Moreover, landslide velocities comparable to similar events reported in the literature are achieved. Output data from numerical simulation of the landslide are used as input parameters for tsunami modelling. It is worth noting that locations affected by recordable waves according to the simulation correspond to those ones recorded by historical documents. With regard to run-up heights a good agreement is achieved at some locations (Messina, Catona, Punta del Faro) between computed and real values, while in other places modelled heights are overestimated. The discrepancies, which were most significant at locations characterized by a very low slope gradient in the vicinity of the landslide, were probably caused by effects such as wave breaking, for which the adopted tsunami model does not account, as well as by uncertainties in the historical data. 相似文献