Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy     

Stefano Tinti  Francesco Latino Chiocci  Filippo Zaniboni  Gianluca Pagnoni  Giovanni de Alteriis 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2011,32(1-2):287-297

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.  相似文献   

The eastern slope of the southern Adriatic basin: a case study of submarine landslide characterization and tsunamigenic potential assessment     

Argnani  A.  Tinti  S.  Zaniboni  F.  Pagnoni  G.  Armigliato  A.  Panetta  D.  Tonini  R. 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2011,32(1-2):299-311

Marine Geophysical Research - The southern Adriatic basin is the current foredeep of the Albanide fold-and-thrust belt that runs along the eastern boundary of the Adriatic basin and partly owes its...  相似文献   

Some Limits in the Use of the MASW Technique in Soils with Inclined Layers     

Lorenza Evangelista  Filippo Santucci de Magistris 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(3):701-711

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Water level observations from unmanned aerial vehicles for improving estimates of surface water–groundwater interaction          下载免费PDF全文

Filippo Bandini  Michael Butts  Torsten Vammen Jacobsen  Peter Bauer‐Gottwein 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4371-4383

Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only.  相似文献   

Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Filippo Giorgi  Erika Coppola  Francesca Raffaele  Gulilat Tefera Diro  Ramon Fuentes-Franco  Graziano Giuliani  Ashu Mamgain  Marta Pereira Llopart  Laura Mariotti  Csaba Torma 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):39-51

We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of the regional climate model RegCM4.2 to planetary boundary layer parameterisation     

Ivan Güttler  Čedo Branković  Travis A. O’Brien  Erika Coppola  Branko Grisogono  Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):1753-1772

This study investigates the performance of two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisations in the regional climate model RegCM4.2 with specific focus on the recently implemented prognostic turbulent kinetic energy parameterisation scheme: the University of Washington (UW) scheme. When compared with the default Holtslag scheme, the UW scheme, in the 10-year experiments over the European domain, shows a substantial cooling. It reduces winter warm bias over the north-eastern Europe by 2 °C and reduces summer warm bias over central Europe by 3 °C. A part of the detected cooling is ascribed to a general reduction in lower tropospheric eddy heat diffusivity with the UW scheme. While differences in temperature tendency due to PBL schemes are mostly localized to the lower troposphere, the schemes show a much higher diversity in how vertical turbulent mixing of the water vapour mixing ratio is governed. Differences in the water vapour mixing ratio tendency due to the PBL scheme are present almost throughout the troposphere. However, they alone cannot explain the overall water vapour mixing ratio profiles, suggesting strong interaction between the PBL and other model parameterisations. An additional 18-member ensemble with the UW scheme is made, where two formulations of the master turbulent length scale in unstable conditions are tested and unconstrained parameters associated with (a) the evaporative enhancement of the cloud-top entrainment and (b) the formulation of the master turbulent length scale in stable conditions are systematically perturbed. These experiments suggest that the master turbulent length scale in the UW scheme could be further refined in the current implementation in the RegCM model. It was also found that the UW scheme is less sensitive to the variations of the other two selected unconstrained parameters, supporting the choice of these parameters in the default formulation of the UW scheme.  相似文献   

Assessment of RegCM4 simulated inter-annual variability and daily-scale statistics of temperature and precipitation over Mexico     

Ramón Fuentes-Franco  Erika Coppola  Filippo Giorgi  Federico Graef  Edgar G. Pavia 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):629-647

The skill of a regional climate model (RegCM4) in capturing the mean patterns, interannual variability and extreme statistics of daily-scale temperature and precipitation events over Mexico is assessed through a comparison of observations and a 27-year long simulation driven by reanalyses of observations covering the Central America CORDEX domain. The analysis also includes the simulation of tropical cyclones. It is found that RegCM4 reproduces adequately the mean spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation and temperature, along with the associated interannual variability characteristics. The main model bias is an overestimation of precipitation in mountainous regions. The 5 and 95 percentiles of daily temperature, as well as the maximum dry spell length are realistically simulated. The simulated distribution of precipitation events as well as the 95 percentile of precipitation shows a wet bias in topographically complex regions. Based on a simple detection method, the model produces realistic tropical cyclone distributions even at its relatively coarse resolution (dx = 50 km), although the number of cyclone days is underestimated over the Pacific and somewhat overestimated over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins. Overall, it is assessed that the performance of RegCM4 over Mexico is of sufficient quality to study not only mean precipitation and temperature patterns, but also higher order climate statistics.  相似文献   

A peak acceleration threshold for soil liquefaction: lessons learned from the 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy)     

Filippo Santucci de Magistris  Giovanni Lanzano  Giovanni Forte  Giovanni Fabbrocino 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):1069-1094

National and international seismic codes and recommendations provide criteria for liquefaction exclusion based on a peak ground acceleration (PGA) threshold value. In this paper, after a brief review of the procedures and the values suggested in those documents, a database of liquefaction case histories was created, exploiting the background data used in the most relevant verification charts, currently employed in research and professional practice. This dataset was used to identify, on the basis of simple statistical analyses, a PGA threshold on the free ground surface below which liquefaction is unlikely to occur, regardless of the geological site conditions. The calculated value, which is on the order of 0.07–0.1 g, based on the model employed to fit the data, was analyzed in light of information collected during the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in Italy, which produced many liquefaction events triggered by low acceleration values. The case history of the Emilia earthquake advises setting a PGA threshold for code and recommendations at the lower probability level of occurrence, in the order of 1 %.  相似文献   

Lessons learned from two case histories of seismic microzonation in Italy     

Filippo Santucci de Magistris  Anna d’Onofrio  Augusto Penna  Rodolfo Puglia  Francesco Silvestri 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2005-2035

The prediction of the variability of the seismic ground motion in a given built-up area is considered an effective tool to plan appropriate urban development, to undertake actions on seismic risk mitigation and to understand the damage pattern caused by a strong-motion event. The procedures for studying the seismic response and the seismic microzonation of an urban area are well established; nevertheless, some controversial points still exists and are discussed here. In this paper, the selection of a reference input motion, the construction of a subsoil model and the seismic response analysis procedures are discussed in detail, based on the authors’ experience in two Italian case histories: the seismic microzonation of the city of Benevento, which was a predictive study, and the simulation of seismic response and damage distribution in the village of San Giuliano di Puglia, which was a retrospective analysis.  相似文献   

Quantitative hazard and risk assessment for slow-moving landslides from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

Ping Lu  Filippo Catani  Veronica Tofani  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2014,11(4):685-696

Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets.  相似文献