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1.
A field study was conducted to analyze root throw and associated sediment transport in Hawk Creek Watershed, Canadian Rockies. A large crown fire in 2003 allowed the opportunity to study pre‐fire and post‐fire root throw. Based on field data, a significant relation was found between gradient and root plate volume, as well as individual root plate dimensions. Given that tree diameters increase as trees age and that a relation in the field data was found between tree diameter and root plate volumes, sediment transport due to root throw is expected to change in response to forest disturbance and stand age. Sediment disturbance, which is the amount of sediment upheaved during tree topple and does not take into account transport distance, shows higher values on steeper gradients. Sediment transport was notable for the steepest plots, with pre‐fire values of 0·016 cm3 cm–1 a–1 and post‐fire values of 0·18 cm3 cm–1 a–1. A tree population dynamics model is then integrated with a root throw transport model calibrated for the Canadian Rockies to examine the temporal dynamics of sediment transport. Fire is incorporated as a disturbance that initiates development of a new forest, with the model cycling through generations of forest. Trees fall according to an exponential rate that is based on time since death, resulting in a time lag between tree mortality and sediment transport. When values of time‐since‐previous‐fire are short, trees are generally <13 cm, and minimal sediment is upheaved during toppling. If trees reach a critical diameter at breast height (dbh) at time of fire, a pulse of sediment occurs in the immediate post‐fire years due to falling of killed trees, with tree fall rates decreasing exponentially with time‐since‐fire. A second pulse of root throw begins at about 50 years after the previous fire, once new recruits reach a critical dbh and with initiation of competition‐induced mortality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
We derived a high‐resolution, spatially continuous map of erosion and deposition associated with the debris‐laden flows triggered by the 2011 Las Conchas wildfire and subsequent rainstorms over a 197 km2 area in New Mexico, USA. This map was produced using airborne‐LiDAR‐derived bare‐earth digital elevation models (DEMs) acquired approximately one year before and one year after the wildfire. Differencing of the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire‐and‐rainstorm bare‐earth DEMs yielded a DEM‐of‐difference (DoD) map that quantifies the magnitude of ground‐surface elevation changes due to erosion/deposition within each 1 m2 pixel. We applied a 0.3 m threshold filter to our DoD to remove changes that could have been due to artifacts and/or imperfect georeferencing. The 0.3 m value for the threshold filter was chosen based on the stated accuracy of the LiDAR as well as a comparison of areas of significant topographic change mapped in aerial photographs with those predicted using a range of candidate threshold values for the DoD filter. We developed an automated procedure that accepts the DoD map as input and computes, for every pixel in the DEM, the net sediment volume exported through each pixel by colluvial and/or fluvial processes using a digital routing algorithm. An analysis of the resulting sediment volume map for the Las Conchas fire demonstrates that sediment volume is proportional to upstream contributing area. After normalized by contributing area, the average sediment yield (defined as the sediment volume divided by the contributing area) increases as a power‐law functions of the average terrain slope and soil burn severity class (SBSC) with exponents equal to approximately 1.5. Our analysis quantifies the relationships among sediment yield, average terrain slope, and average soil burn severity class at the watershed scale and should prove useful for predicting the geomorphic response of wildfire‐affected drainage basins. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Landslides and rockfalls are key geomorphic processes in mountain basins. Their quantification and characterization are critical for understanding the processes of slope failure and their contributions to erosion and landscape evolution. We used digital photogrammetry to produce a multi‐temporal record of erosion (1963–2005) of a rock slope at the head of the Illgraben, a very active catchment prone to debris flows in Switzerland. Slope failures affect 70% of the study slope and erode the slope at an average rate of 0.39 ± 0.03 m yr¯¹. The analysis of individual slope failures yielded an inventory of ~2500 failures ranging over 6 orders of magnitude in volume, despite the small slope area and short study period. The slope failures form a characteristic magnitude–frequency distribution with a rollover and a power‐law tail between ~200 m³ and 1.6 × 106 m³ with an exponent of 1.65. Slope failure volume scales with area as a power law with an exponent of 1.1. Both values are low for studies of bedrock landslides and rockfall and result from the highly fractured and weathered state of the quartzitic bedrock. Our data suggest that the magnitude–frequency distribution is the result of two separate slope failure processes. Type (1) failures are frequent, small slides and slumps within the weathered layer of highly fractured rock and loose sediment, and make up the rollover. Type (2) failures are less frequent and larger rockslides and rockfalls within the internal bedded and fractured slope along pre‐determined potential failure surfaces, and make up the power‐law tail. Rockslides and rockfalls of high magnitude and relatively low frequency make up 99% of the total failure volume and are thus responsible for the high erosion rate. They are also significant in the context of landscape evolution as they occur on slopes above 45° and limit the relief of the slope. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Large, deep‐seated landslides are common throughout the south‐eastern San Juan Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico, but their timing and initiation are not well understood. Determining when the landslides occurred would aid in clarifying the mechanisms for initiating landslides in the region and would help us to understand post‐glacial landscape evolution. We studied seven pre‐historic landslides located within the Tertiary volcanic rocks of the San Juan Volcanic Field. The landslides range in area from ~0.8 km2 to ~11.3 km2 and most are located in areas that were previously mapped as having been ice‐covered during the last glaciation. Landslide deposits were dated using a variety of methods including surface exposure dating (chlorine‐36, 36Cl), radiocarbon dating of basal bog sediments and organic material buried in soils, and relative soil development. The resulting limiting ages range from approximately 14 ka to 2 ka and show that deep‐seated landsliding has occurred throughout the post‐glacial period. This broad range in ages is inconsistent with our initial hypothesis, which proposed that landslides were likely the result of debuttressing of glacial walls during glacial retreat. Furthermore, the timing of landslides does not seem to correlate with documented post‐glacial climatic shifts. Therefore, we conclude that landsliding in the region was the result of wetter than normal periods lasting months to years acting on weak bedrock preconditioned to failure and prepared by glacial debuttressing. Our findings suggest that the study area is likely still susceptible to deep‐seated landsliding and may become even more prone to large‐scale slope failure if future climate change increases precipitation in the San Juan Mountains. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
 The 1991–1993 lava flow is the most voluminous flow erupted at Mount Etna, Sicily, in over 300 years. Estimates of the volume obtained by various methods range from 205×106 m3 (Tanguy 1996) to over 500×106 m3 (Barberi et al. 1993). This paper describes the results of an electronic distance measurement (EDM)-based field survey of the upper surface of the 1991–1993 flow field undertaken in 1995. The results were digitised, interpolated and converted into a digital elevation model and then compared with a pre-eruption digital elevation model, constructed from a 1 : 25 000 contour map of the area, based on 1989 aerial photographs. Our measurements are the most accurate to date and show that the 1991–1993 lava flow occupies a volume of 231±29×106 m3. Received: 20 July 1996 / Accepted: 5 November 1996  相似文献   

6.
The determination of sediment storage is a critical parameter in sediment budget analyses. But, in many sediment budget studies the quantification of magnitude and time‐scale of sediment storage is still the weakest part and often relies on crude estimations only, especially in large drainage basins (>100 km2). We present a new approach to storage quantification in a meso‐scale alpine catchment of the Swiss Alps (Turtmann Valley, 110 km2). The quantification of depositional volumes was performed by combining geophysical surveys and geographic information system (GIS) modelling techniques. Mean thickness values of each landform type calculated from these data was used to estimate the sediment volume in the hanging valleys and the trough slopes. Sediment volume of the remaining subsystems was determined by modelling an assumed parabolic bedrock surface using digital elevation model (DEM) data. A total sediment volume of 781·3×106–1005·7×106 m3 is deposited in the Turtmann Valley. Over 60% of this volume is stored in the 13 hanging valleys. Moraine landforms contain over 60% of the deposits in the hanging valleys followed by sediment stored on slopes (20%) and rock glaciers (15%). For the first time, a detailed quantification of different storage types was achieved in a catchment of this size. Sediment volumes have been used to calculate mean denudation rates for the different processes ranging from 0·1 to 2·6 mm/a based on a time span of 10 ka. As the quantification approach includes a number of assumptions and various sources of error the values given represent the order of magnitude of sediment storage that has to be expected in a catchment of this size. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The aim of this study was to investigate rainfall–groundwater dynamics over space and annual time scales in a hard‐rock aquifer system of India by employing time series, geographic information system and geostatistical modelling techniques. Trends in 43‐year (1965–2007) annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations and 16‐year (1991–2006) pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels of 140 sites were identified by using Mann–Kendall, Spearman rank order correlation and Kendall rank correlation tests. Trends were quantified by Kendall slope method. Furthermore, the study involves novelty of examining homogeneity of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels, for the first time, by applying seven tests. Regression analysis between rainfall and post‐monsoon groundwater levels was performed. The pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels for four periods – 1991–1994, 1995–1998, 1999–2002 and 2003–2006 – were subjected to geographic information system‐based geostatistical modelling. The rainfall showed considerable spatiotemporal variations, with a declining trend at the Mavli rainfall station (p‐value < 0.05). The Levene's tests revealed spatial homogeneity of rainfall at α = 0.05. Regression analyses indicated significant relationships (r2 > 0.5) between groundwater level and rainfall for eight rainfall stations. Non‐homogeneity and declining trends in the groundwater level, attributed to anthropogenic and hydrologic factors, were found at 5–61 more sites in pre‐monsoon compared with post‐monsoon season. The groundwater declining rates in phyllite–schist, gneiss, schist and granite formations were found to be 0.18, 0.26, 0.21 and 0.14 m year?1 and 0.13, 0.19, 0.16 and 0.02 m year?1 during the pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons, respectively. The geostatistical analyses for four time periods revealed linkages between the rainfall and groundwater levels. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Groundwater extraction is rampant in many developing countries and urban areas whereas the natural recharge is decreasing due to covering of Earth's surface for various developmental activities. This leads to declining levels of groundwater and deterioration in groundwater quality. Artificial recharge with rain water harvesting techniques offers an excellent scope to arrest this degradation. This paper presents a study that analyzes the influence of rain water harvesting (RWH) on groundwater storage and quality. Chennai City, India is selected as study area, as major RWH implementation has taken place during 2002–2003 due to Government legislation. Preliminary analysis of groundwater levels were done spatially and temporally. Groundwater table contours were drawn using the GIS software for pre‐ (1999–2000) and post‐RWH (2009–2010) periods. The groundwater levels follow a decreasing trend before implementation of RWH where as a positive increasing trend takes place after construction of RWH structures. “Groundwater Estimation Committee (GEC)” norms of Government of India were used to estimate the change in storage during pre‐ and post‐RWH periods, which are found to be 1.76 × 106 and 32.77 × 106 m3, respectively. The results show that the implementation of RWH has increased the groundwater storage considerably. Also, the influence of RWH on groundwater quality is found to be encouraging in some parts of the studied area.  相似文献   

9.
On 3 September 1998, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that originated from Tam Pokhari occurred in the Hinku valley of the eastern Nepal Himalaya. This study analyses the lake's geomorphic and hydrologic conditions prior to the outburst, and evaluates the conditions that could contribute to a future flood through photogrammetric techniques. We processed high‐resolution Corona KH‐4A (2.7 m) and ALOS PRISM (2.5 m) stereo‐images taken before and after the GLOF event, and produced detailed topographic maps (2‐m contour interval) and DEMs (5 m × 5 m). We (re‐) constructed lake water surfaces before (4410 ± 5 m) and after (4356 ± 5 m) the outburst, and reliably estimated the lake water surface lowering (54 ± 5 m) and the water volume released (19.5 ± 2.2 × 106 m3) from the lake, showing good agreement with the results obtained from ground‐based measurements. The most relevant conditions that may have influenced the catastrophic drainage of Tam Pokhari in 1998 include the presence of: (i) a narrow (75 ± 6 m), steep (up to 50°) and high (120 ± 5 m) moraine dam; (ii) high lake level (8 ± 5 m of freeboard) and (iii) a steep overhanging glacier (>40°). The lake outburst substantially altered the immediate area, creating a low and wide (>500 m) outwash plain below the lake, a wide lake outlet channel (~50 m) and a gentle channel slope (~3–5°). Our new data suggest that the likelihood of a future lake outburst is low. Our results demonstrate that the datasets produced by photogrammetric techniques provide an excellent representation of micro‐landform features on moraine dams, lake water surfaces and the changes in both over time, thereby allowing highly accurate pre‐ and post‐GLOF (volumetric) change analysis of glacial lakes. Furthermore, it enables precise measurement of several predictive variables of GLOFs that can be useful for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes or prioritizing them for detailed field investigations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
We have used a suite of remotely sensed data, numerical lava flow modeling, and field observations to determine quantitative characteristics of the 1995 Fernandina and 1998 Cerro Azul eruptions in the western Galápagos Islands. Flank lava flow areas, volumes, instantaneous effusion rates, and average effusion rates were all determined for these two eruptions, for which only limited syn-eruptive field observations are available. Using data from SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2, we determined that the 1995 Fernandina flow covers a subaerial area of 6.5×106 m2 and has a subaerial dense rock equivalent (DRE) volume of 42×106 m3. Field observations, ATSR satellite data, and the FLOWGO numerical model allow us to determine that the effusion rate declined exponentially from a high of ~60–200 m3 s-1 during the first few hours to <5 m3 s-1 prior to ceasing after 73 days, with a mean effusion rate of 4–16 m3 s-1. Integrating the ATSR-derived, exponentially declining effusion rate over the eruption duration produces a total (subaerial + submarine) DRE volume of between 27 and 100×106 m3, the range in values being due to differing assumptions about heat loss characteristics; only values in the higher part of this range are consistent with the independently derived subaerial volume. Using SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2 data, we determine that the 1998 Cerro Azul flow is 16 km long, covers 16 km2, and has a DRE volume of 54×106 m3. FLOWGO produces at-vent velocity and effusion rate values of 11 m s-1 and ~600 m3 s-1, respectively. The velocity value agrees well with the 12 m s-1 estimated in the field. The mean effusion rate (total DRE volume/duration) was 7–47 m3 s-1. Dike dimensions, fissure lengths, and pressure gradients along the conduit based on magma chamber depth estimates of 3–5 km produce mean effusion rates for the two eruptions that range over nearly four orders of magnitude, the range being due to uncertainty in the magma viscosity, dike dimensions, and pressure gradient between magma chamber and vent. Although somewhat consistent with mean effusion rates from other techniques, their wide range makes them less useful. The exponentially declining effusion rates during both eruptions are consistent with release of elastic strain being the driving mechanism of the eruptions. Our results provide independent input parameters for previously published theoretical relationships between magma chamber pressurization and eruption rates that constrain chamber volumes and increases in volume prior to eruption, as well as time constants of exponential decay during the eruption. The results and theoretical relationships combine to indicate that at both volcanoes probably 25–30% of the volumetric increase in the magma chamber erupted as lava onto the surface. In both eruptions the lava flow volumes are less than 1% of the magma chamber volume.  相似文献   

11.
This paper describes and analyses a hillslope–channel slope failure event that occurred at Wet Swine Gill, Lake District, northern England. This comprised a hillslope slide (180 m3, c. 203 ± 36 t), which coupled with the adjacent stream, resulting in a channelized debris flow and fluvial flood. The timing of the event is constrained between January and March 2002. The hillslope failure occurred in response to a rainfall/snowmelt trigger, on ground recently disturbed by a heather moorland fire and modified by artificial drainage. Slide and flow dynamics are estimated using reconstructed velocity and discharge values along the sediment transfer path. There is a rapid downstream reduction in both maximum velocity, from 9·8 to 1·3 m s?1; and maximum discharge, ranging from 33·5 to 2·4 m3 s?1. A volumetric sediment budget quantified a high degree of coupling between the hillslope and immediate channel (～92%: 167 m3), but virtually all of the sediment was retained in the first‐order tributary channel. Approximately 44% (81 m3) of the slide volume was retained in the run‐up deposit, and termination of the debris flow prior to the main river meant that the remainder did not discharge into the fluvial system downstream. These results suggest poor transmission of sediment to the main river at the time of the event, but importantly an increase in available material for post‐event sediment transfer processes within the small upland tributary. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
This paper describes the application of environmental isotopes and injected tracer techniques in estimating the contribution of storms as well as annual precipitation to groundwater recharge and its circulation, in the semi‐arid region of Bagepalli, Kolar district, Karnataka. Environmental isotopes 2H, 18O and 3H were used to study the effect of storms on the hydrological system, and an isotope balance was used to compute the contribution of a storm component to the groundwater. Some of the groundwater samples collected during the post‐storm periods were highly depleted in stable isotope content with higher deuterium excess relative to groundwater from the pre‐storm periods. Significant variation in deuterium excess in groundwater from the same area, collected in two different periods, indicates the different origin of air masses. The estimated recharge component of a storm event of 600 mm to the groundwater was found to be in the range of 117–165 mm. There was no significant variation in environmental tritium content of post‐storm and pre‐storm groundwater, indicating the fast circulation of groundwater in the system. After completion of the environmental isotope work, an injected radiotracer 3H technique was applied to estimate the direct recharge of total precipitation to the groundwater. The estimated recharge to the groundwater is 33 mm of the 550 mm annual precipitation during 1992. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The goal of this study was to test hollow‐fiber ultrafiltration as a method for concentrating in situ bacteria and viruses in groundwater samples. Water samples from nine wells tapping a shallow sandy aquifer in a densely populated village in Bangladesh were reduced in volume approximately 400‐fold using ultrafiltration. Culture‐based assays for total coliforms and Escherichia coli, as well as molecular‐based assays for E. coli, Bacteroides, and adenovirus, were used as microbial markers before and after ultrafiltration to evaluate performance. Ultrafiltration increased the concentration of the microbial markers in 99% of cases. However, concentration factors (CF = post‐filtration concentration/pre‐filtration concentration) for each marker calculated from geometric means ranged from 52 to 1018 compared to the expected value of 400. The efficiency was difficult to quantify because concentrations of some of the markers, especially E. coli and total coliforms, in the well water (WW) collected before ultrafiltration varied by several orders of magnitude during the period of sampling. The potential influence of colloidal iron oxide precipitates in the groundwater was tested by adding EDTA to the pre‐filtration water in half of the samples to prevent the formation of precipitates. The use of EDTA had no significant effect on the measurement of culturable or molecular markers across the 0.5 to 10 mg/L range of dissolved Fe2+ concentrations observed in the groundwater, indicating that colloidal iron did not hinder or enhance recovery or detection of the microbial markers. Ultrafiltration appears to be effective for concentrating microorganisms in environmental water samples, but additional research is needed to quantify losses during filtration.  相似文献   

14.
Recent emphasis on sediment connectivity in the literature highlights the need for quantitative baseline studies on the patterns and distribution of sediment stores to facilitate understanding of how sediment moves through the landscape at various temporal and spatial scales. This study evaluates the distribution and make‐up of sediment stores within the dramatically incised landscapes of the upper Yellow River, where basin fill deposits up to 1200 m in depth have been extensively reworked following incision by the Yellow River. Field and GIS analyses highlight the discontinuous distribution of sediment stores in Garang catchment, a 236 km2 tributary of the upper Yellow River. Volumetric estimates of sediment storage were obtained through a combination of field mapping, GPR transects, and GIS analyses. Sediment stores cover 20% of the Garang catchment, with an estimated volume of 474.0 × 106 m3, and inferred residence times from OSL and 14C dating of 103–104 years. Fans and terraces reworked from basin fill deposits, and associated cut and fill terrace features, are the dominant forms of sediment storage (~90% of total). A space‐for‐time argument is used to assess stages of basin infilling and subsequent landscape responses to incision, outlining a dramatic example of changes to sediment dynamics and connectivity relationships within the upper Yellow River. Sediments within the upper catchment lie above the regional basin fill level, offering a glimpse of pre‐incisional conditions. This contrasts markedly with the enduring influence of basin incisional history seen within the middle catchment, and the contemporary landscapes of the lower catchment where nearly all available sediment has been excavated from the basin and the landscape effectively operates under post‐incisional conditions. The need to contextualise catchment‐scale studies in terms of landscape history is emphasised. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Wildfires change the infiltration properties of soil, reduce the amount of interception and result in increased runoff. A wildfire at Northeast Attica, Central Greece, in August 2009, destroyed approximately one third of a study area consisting of a mixture of shrublands, pastures and pines. The present study simultaneously models multiple semi‐arid, shrubland‐dominated Mediterranean catchments and assesses the hydrological response (mean annual and monthly runoff and runoff coefficients) during the first few years following wildfires. A physically based, hydrological model (MIKE SHE) was chosen. Calibration and validation results of mean monthly discharge presented very good agreement with the observed data for the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire period for two subcatchments (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 79.7%). The model was then used to assess the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire runoff responses for each of seven catchments in the study area. Mean annual surface runoff increased for the first year and after the second year following the wildfires increased by 112% and 166%, respectively. These values are within the range observed in similar cases of monitored sites. This modelling approach may provide a way of prioritizing catchment selection with respect to post‐fire remediation activities. Additionally, this modelling assessment methodology would be valuable to other semi‐arid areas because it provides an important means for comprehensively assessing post‐wildfire response over large regions and therefore attempts to address some of the scaled issues in the specific literature field of research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A field investigation of fracture compliance   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
A field measurement of fracture compliance is described. The aim was to determine how compliance scales with fracture size and, specifically, how laboratory measurements of fracture compliance compared with field estimates from sonic and seismic data. A test site was constructed, consisting of three 40 m vertical boreholes drilled in the floor of a Carboniferous Limestone quarry. Detailed knowledge of the rocks in the test area was obtained from core analysis, wireline logging and local area fracture mapping. Seismic cross‐hole surveys were performed using a sparker source with a dominant frequency of 2000 Hz and hydrophone receivers. The rocks had a compressional‐wave velocity anisotropy of 10%, which was attributed to the presence of predominantly horizontal, partially open fractures. Estimates of normal fracture compliance within a range from 2.5 × 10?13 m/Pa to 3.5 × 10?12 m/Pa were obtained from both the cross‐hole data and the sonic‐log data. This is an order of magnitude greater than values obtained from laboratory experiments which are reported elsewhere.  相似文献   

17.
Stream water quality can change substantively during diurnal cycles, discrete flow events, and seasonal time scales. In this study, we assessed event responses in surface water nutrient concentrations and biogeochemical parameters through the deployment of continuous water quality sensors from March to October 2011 in the East Fork Jemez River, located in northern New Mexico, USA. Events included two pre‐fire non‐monsoonal precipitation events in April, four post‐fire precipitation events in August and September (associated with monsoonal thunderstorms), and two post‐fire non‐monsoonal precipitation events in October. The six post‐fire events occurred after the Las Conchas wildfire burned a significant portion of the contributing watershed (36%) beginning in June 2011. Surface water nitrate (NO3? N) concentrations increased by an average of 50% after pre‐fire and post‐fire non‐monsoonal precipitation events and were associated with small increases in turbidity (up to 15 NTU). Beginning 1 month after the start of the large regional wildfire, monsoonal precipitation events resulted in large multi‐day increases in dissolved NO3? N (6 × background levels), dissolved phosphate (100 × background levels), specific conductance (5 × background levels), and turbidity (>100 × background levels). These periods also corresponded with substantial sags in dissolved oxygen (<4 mg l?1) and pH (<6.5). The short duration and rapid rates of change during many of these flow events, particularly following wildfire, highlight the importance of continuous water quality monitoring to quantify the timing and magnitude of event responses in streams and to examine large water quality excursions linked to catchment disturbance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
In much of western United States destructive floods after wildfire are frequently caused by localized, short‐duration convective thunderstorms; however, little is known about post‐fire flooding from longer‐duration, low‐intensity mesoscale storms. In this study we estimate and compare peak flows from convective and mesoscale floods following the 2012 High Park Fire in the ungaged 15.5 km2 Skin Gulch basin in the northcentral Colorado Front Range. The convective storm on 6 July 2012 came just days after the wildfire was contained. Radar data indicated that the total rainfall was 20–47 mm, and the maximum rainfall intensities (upwards of 50 mm h?1) were concentrated over portions of the watershed that burned at high severity. The mesoscale storm on 9–15 September 2013 produced 220–240 mm of rain but had maximum 15‐min intensities of only 25–32 mm h?1. Peak flows for each flood were estimated using three independent techniques. Our best estimate using a 2D hydraulic model was 28 m3 s?1 km?2 for the flood following the convective storm, placing it among the largest rainfall‐runoff floods per unit area in the United States. In contrast, the flood associated with the mesoscale flood was only 6 m3 s?1 km?2, but the long‐duration flood caused extensive channel incision and widening, indicating that this storm was much more geomorphically effective. The peak flow estimates for the 2013 flood had a higher relative uncertainty and this stemmed from whether we used pre‐ or post‐flood channel topography. The results document the extent to which a high and moderate severity forest fire can greatly increase peak flows and alter channel morphology, illustrate how indirect peak flow estimates have larger errors than is generally assumed, and indicate that the magnitude of post‐fire floods and geomorphic change can be affected by the timing, magnitude, duration, and sequence of rainstorms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The caesium‐137 method of quantifying soil erosion is used to provide field data for validating the capability of the SHETRAN modelling system for predicting long‐term (30‐year) erosion rates and their spatial variability. Simulations were carried out for two arable farm sites (area 3–5 ha) in central England for which average annual erosion rates of 6·5 and 10·4 t ha?1 year?1 had already been determined using caesium‐137 measurements. These rates were compared with a range of simulated values representing the uncertainty in model output derived from uncertainty in the evaluation of model parameters. A successful validation was achieved in that the simulation range contained the measured rate at both sites, whereas the spatial variability was reproduced excellently at one site and partially at the other. The results indicate that, as the caesium‐137 technique measures the erosion caused by all the processes acting at a site, it is relevant to hydrologically based models such as SHETRAN only if erosion by wind, agricultural activities and other processes not represented in the model are insignificant. The results also indicate a need to reduce the uncertainty in model parameter evaluation. More generally, the caesium‐137 technique is shown to provide field data that improve the severity of the validation procedure (accounting for internal as well as outlet conditions) and that add spatial variability to magnitude as a condition for identifying unrealistic parameter sets when seeking to reduce simulation uncertainty. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Second‐generation performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE‐2) requires a library of component fragility functions to estimate probabilistic damage to a wide variety of building components. The present work draws on a large body of (mostly) post‐earthquake reconnaissance and (some) post‐earthquake survey observations of traction elevators to create fragility functions useful in PBEE‐2. Two surveys provide detailed observations of 115 representative elevators at 12 hospitals shaken in the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes and selected without regard to or foreknowledge of damage. Of these, 55 failed and 60 did not. Approximately half were installed after an important code change of 1972, so one can distinguish the performance of pre‐1973 and post‐1973 elevator construction. They experienced a range of strong motion: 22 with peak ground acceleration (PGA) < 0.25 g, 93 with 0.25 g < PGA < 0.85 g. The hospitals had elevator failure rates as low as 0% and as high as 100%. A third survey describes damage qualitatively for six sites with PGA ≤ 0.25 and per‐site failure rates of 0% to perhaps 30%. Fragility functions are offered where the damage state is the loss of functionality of the elevator. The elevators in these surveys exhibit a median capacity of PGA ≈ 0.35 g with a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.40. Capacity is modestly sensitive to whether the elevator was installed before or after 1973. Using building‐specific intensity measures such as Sa(T1) does not improve the fragility functions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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