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In many coastal regions, oil spills can be considered as one of the most important and certainly the most noticeable forms of marine pollution. Efficient contingency management responding to oil spills on waters, which aims at minimizing pollution effects on coastal resources, turns out to be critically important. Such a decision making highly depends on the importance attributed to different coastal economic and ecological resources. Economic uses can, in principal, be addressed by standard measures such as value added. However, there is a missing of market in the real world for natural goods. Coastal resources such as waters and beach cannot be directly measured in money terms, which increases the risk of being neglected in a decision making process. This paper evaluates these natural goods of coastal environment in a hypothetical market by employing stated choice experiments. Oil spill management practice in German North Sea is used as an example. Results from a pilot survey show that during a combat process, beach and eider ducks are of key concerns for households. An environmental friendly combat option has to be a minor cost for households. Moreover, households with less children, higher monthly income and a membership of environmental organization are more likely to state that they are willing to pay for combat option to prevent coastal resources from an oil pollution. Despite that choice experiments require knowledge of designing questionnaire and statistical skills to deal with discrete choices and conducting a survey is time consumed, the results have important implications for oil spill contingency management. Overall, such a stated preference method can offer useful information for decision makers to consider coastal resources into a decision making process and can further contribute to finding a cost-effective oil preventive measure, also has a wide application potential in the field of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). 相似文献
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为克服典型情景模拟法的缺陷,综合考虑船舶溢油发生的随机性、海洋水动力和风场的不确定性以及环境资源的敏感性,提出基于随机情景模拟的船舶溢油危害后果定量评价方法。通过随机情景模拟和网格化统计得到敏感区的溢油污染概率和最快到达时间,结合环境敏感指数和溢油量等参数计算综合溢油危害指数,并将其作为溢油危害后果定量评价指标。结果表明:台湾海峡北部水域不同季节发生船舶溢油的危害后果大小依次为夏季(27.8)秋季(25.5)春季(21.1)冬季(16.2),夏季溢油事故对牛山岛保护区的污染概率和危害后果相对最大(P=60%,Ck=41.2),达到较高级别;其他季节东甲列岛保护区的溢油污染概率和危害指数均为最高。随机情景模拟能够弥补事故情景,为评价船舶溢油危害后果风险提供一种新方法。 相似文献
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海域溢油环境敏感性评价工作是溢油应急规划的基础,有利于溢油事故的应急处理。本文对海岸线的溢油环境敏感型的主要评价方法和选取的评价指标进行了总结;在溢油环境敏感性评价中采用的方法主要包含指数法、层次分析法、德尔菲法、模糊综合评价法等;在研究中,各类方法具有不同特点,多为各种方法同时使用。目前,国内外研究中选取的各类指标可总结归为物理指标、生物指标、社会-经济指标三大类,并且针对部分指标选取的理论依据进行了论述。探讨了较为系统化的评价指标体系的构建。综述了海岸线溢油环境敏感性评价的国内外的主要研究进展。最后指出当前溢油环境敏感性评价中存在的不足,如评价体系系统性差、评价指标科学性低及评价过程主观性强等,而加强学科交叉的同时对目前研究中不足深入研究将是后续的研究重点。 相似文献
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《Ocean & Coastal Management》2007,50(1-2):24-34
This study, which was carried out during 1999–2002, deals with the identification of the environmental sensitivity of the Mediterranean coastline of Israel to marine oil spills. It includes GIS sensitivity mapping and an analysis of the environmental vulnerability of Israel's shoreline resources.The study analyses the main sources of risk for maritime accidents in the southeastern Mediterranean and develops scenarios for possible oil spills incidents, including an analysis of the priorities for protection of the various coastal ecosystems, in an event of a large spill. It describes the morphology of the coastline of Israel, as well as the main hydrographic and meteorological patterns that dominate and control the dynamics of the shorelines, and of potential major oil spills. The study also discusses the different ways in which oil spills may affect natural ecosystems and socio-economic resources along the coastline of Israel.The basic research question of the study was how different geomorphic and land-use types of the Mediterranean shoreline would be affected by large quantities of spilled oil washing ashore from the sea. The study aims at determining the relative sensitivity of different types of shoreline and ‘prioritizing’ the different types of shoreline and coastal resources to be protected following a large oil spill. The study also aims at presenting the data collected and analyzed to both the scientific and environmental communities, and to the operational national authorities responsible for oil spill preparedness and response, in a clear and useful way.One of the main conclusions of the study is that generally, the sensitivity of the Israeli Mediterranean coastline to oil spills could be considered moderate, compared with other fragile ecosystems. This is mainly because of the morphology of the sandy beaches and the high exposure of most types of beaches to energetic natural cleanup processes. Still, along the southeastern Mediterranean coastline there are ecosystems, habitats, shoreline types and coastal resources that are sensitive to oil spills. 相似文献
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溢油事故发生后, 油膜的漂移扩散会对周围水域和环境敏感目标造成污染。研究溢油事故后油膜漂移扩散, 可为溢油事故的处理提供理论指导。本文应用河口海岸三维水动力模式ECOM-si(semi-implicit estuarine, costal and ocean model), 耦合溢油漂移扩散模块, 模拟和分析长江口宝钢码头发生溢油事故后油膜的漂移扩散, 以及对环境敏感保护目标的影响。基于长江口崇明东滩气象站实测风速风向资料, 给出影响溢油漂移的主导风和不利风向。在冬季多年平均1月径流量11700m³·s-1、主导风、3个不利风和潮汐作用下, 数值模拟并详细给出了宝钢码头溢油事故发生后油膜的平面分布、油膜到达和离开4个水库取水口和饮用水水源保护区以及其他环境敏感保护区的时间、持续影响时间和最大油膜厚度。长江口宝钢码头溢油事故发生后, 油膜随涨落潮流作上下游来回振荡, 径流使油膜向海输运, 风使油膜朝风向方向漂移。在主导风北风5.6m³·s-1风速下, 油膜沿长江口南岸向下游漂移扩散, 小部分进入北槽南侧。在不利风向东南风4.0m³·s-1风速下, 油膜西北方向漂移, 聚集于南支北岸, 受径流作用沿南支和北港的中北侧向下游输运。在不利风向西北风4.8m³·s-1风速下, 西北风减轻了溢油事故点上游和北港、崇明东滩外侧敏感目标的影响, 加重了南港和南槽的环境敏感保护目标的影响。在不利风向西南风3.2m³·s-1风速下, 大部分油膜在北港中北侧向下游漂移扩散, 小部分油膜聚集在北槽的中北侧。西南风减轻了溢油事故点上游和下游南港、南槽环境敏感目标受到的影响, 加重了对北港和崇明东滩外侧敏感目标的影响。不同风向作用下油膜的分布和对环境敏感保护目标影响显著不同, 风在油膜漂移扩散中起着十分重要的作用。 相似文献
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生物标志物是指能够指示或表征暴露于环境化学污染物而引起生物机体发生响应变化的标志物或指标。采用生物标志物指示海洋环境的水质变化及其生态预警作用的研究是当今海洋环境科学研究的热点和前沿,在海洋污染评价领域中应用广泛。本文介绍了生物标志物的定义及分类,综述了国内外基于不同种类的生物标志物的评价方法在海洋溢油污染监测与评价中的应用特点和研究现状,以及多种生物标志物综合应用的典型方法及重要意义,例如生物标志物响应指数(biomarker response index,BRI)和综合生物标志物响应指数法(Integrated biomarker responses index,IBR)。最后,本文总结并指出了今后开展相关溢油污染评价的研究方向,包括针对海洋溢油污染特点筛选特异性强、敏感性高的生物标志物以及建立基于生物标志物的海洋溢油污染预警系统等,从而提供更加精准有效的技术方法和科学保障。 相似文献
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A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters. 相似文献
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以2014–2015年海洋调查数据为基础,Arc GIS软件为平台,通过选取致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性相关影响因子,基于灾害理论和层次分析法构建了辽东湾近岸海域油污染生态风险评价指标体系、评价模型及评价标准,将致灾因子危险性等级和承灾体脆弱性等级进行叠加,从而实现对研究海域油污染生态风险进行综合评价,并对该海域溢油风险可能导致的环境影响进行了系统分析、诊断和综合评价。结果表明:辽东湾近岸海域风险处于较高风险,应加强对环境敏感区域的保护,并完善环境监测体系。本文同时为重要湿地生态敏感区合理配置溢油应急资源和实施风险决策提供技术支撑,也为目前事故后的危机管理到预防性风险管理的转变提供理论依据。 相似文献
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近年来,国内外海上溢油污染事故的频发,使得全社会对海洋污染的关注不断升温。海上溢油量是评价海上溢油事故威胁程度和确定溢油事故等级的重要指标,也是污染赔偿追责的重要依据,同时对于现场溢油应急处置和科学决策也有重要作用。本文总结分析了目前主要的4种海上溢油量初步评估方法,包括质量平衡法、工艺流程法、现场观测法和数值模拟法。不同溢油量估算方法适用的溢油源和溢油方式各有不同,估算的溢油量也不尽相同。实际应用中,通常根据具体情况选择多种方法进行溢油量综合评估。本文从实际应用出发,探讨几种可用的溢油量评估方法,并结合案例进行说明。 相似文献
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This paper presents an estimation of the economic effects of the Prestige oil spill in Galicia, focusing on the Death Coast fisheries and using fish landings as a market technique. Examining the evolution of landings in the Death Coast before and after the accident, the analysis reveals two opposing trends, with landings of some species increasing and those of other species diminishing. 相似文献
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应用非结构化网格形式的MIKE 21水动力模型及溢油模块建立福宁湾海域海工工程施工期溢油扩散的数学模型,对在静风、全年主导风及不利风等3种不同风况条件下,一个潮周期内包括涨憩、落急、落憩、涨急等4个典型潮时分别发生100 t燃料油持续泄露30 min的事故溢油工况进行溢油扩散数值模拟.分析显示,事故溢油在福宁湾海域的扩散过程主要受潮流和风的影响.计算结果给出了事故溢油发生后24 h内的影响范围及0. 05 mg/dm3油浓度(一类或二类水质标准)溢油最快到达福宁湾内主要敏感目标的时间,为海洋环境影响评价和溢油事故应急措施的制定提供了科学依据. 相似文献
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为探讨福建宁德三都澳油品泊位码头溢油事故对大黄鱼保护区影响的发生途经、影响过程及影响方式,通过二维“油粒子”海域溢油风险评价模型,预测3#油品泊位码头前沿操作性泄漏和船舶航道泄漏在几种不利环境组合条件下的溢油风险影响行为,分析其溢油事故风险对大黄鱼保护区的影响后果.通过预测分析表明,3#油品泊位码头溢油事故对大黄鱼保护区海洋生态环境将产生极大不利影响,尤其是在大黄鱼保护区内发生溢油事故,将产生严重影响.因此,须对溢油事故采取防范措施和应急预案处理. 相似文献
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海上溢油数值模型研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
我国是海洋大国,近年来,海上活动持续增多,发生海上溢油事故的风险随之加大,海上溢油污染事故一旦发生,如不得到及时控制,必将严重损害我国近海海洋环境。为了完善我国海上溢油应急反应体系,提高我国处理重大海上溢油事故的应急反应能力,海上溢油污染应急技术研究已经得到开展。本文综述了溢油预测模型的发展过程以及相关的研究成果,包括：溢油扩展模型、溢油漂移模型、油粒子模型和溢油风化模型等。这为进一步开展溢油预测和溢油污染应急工作提供了理论依据和参考。 相似文献
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Two sites located in the sublittoral fine-sand macrobenthic community of the Ares-Betanzos Ria were sampled over four years (December 1992-November 1996) in the wake of the Aegean Sea oil spill. This sampling revealed that the petroleum had affected the structure and abundance of this community, as well as the number of taxa present. In this context, the results of the biotic index and the biotic coefficient were insufficient; however, study of the synthetic parameters, particularly through multivariate analysis, showed that the community went through three successive and distinct phases over time. A short period of high mortality in some species, especially amphipods, was followed by a period of low abundance that lasted until the spring of 1995. A period of recovery began in the second half of 1995 and continued through to the end of 1996, when the survey ended. The community showed a gradual evolution back towards the conditions observed immediately after the spill, when abundance of the more resistant species was still high. Despite this similarity, the last period exhibits a new structure, clearly separate from the two previous periods. This study provides information about the short-term effects of the Aegean Sea oil spill on the fine sand bottoms of the sites surveyed in the Ares-Betanzos Ria. This information could also serve as a baseline for identifying the effects of a more recent accident, the Prestige oil spill, in which similar communities in other Galician rias were polluted in 2002-2003. 相似文献
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溢油污染不仅会造成巨大的经济损失,而且给生态环境带来难以修复的破坏。准确、高效地监测海面溢油仍是当前亟需解决的问题。紫外传感器对油膜非常敏感,可快速发现,但存在误判;而SAR(SyntheticApertureRadar)溢油探测的精度较高,两者相结合可准确探测溢油。无人机平台可低成本地实现溢油快速应急响应,无人机载SAR和紫外传感器的载荷重量小,可同时集成于无人机上开展联合溢油探测,以满足业务化监测需求,此方面的研究尚未见有相关报道。本文拟研究溢油不同种类、厚度、在不同海洋环境条件下的紫外图像特征和SAR纹理特征、形状特征、散射特征,构建溢油特征数据库,并建立一种基于特征组合的溢油SAR与紫外联合探测方法;在此基础上研究对无人机数据获取模式和控制单元等的改造方案,进而实现溢油SAR和紫外图像的高效获取。 相似文献
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海洋油污染是各类海洋污染中最常见、分布面积最广且危害程度最大的污染之一。近年来,海洋特别是近海人类活动频繁,且随着海上运输和石油加工业的发展,油田井喷、钻井平台爆炸、船舶碰撞等所造成的溢油事故增多,因而,监测海洋溢油具有重要的经济和社会现实意义。研究采用MatLAB工具,通过图像预处理(图像校正和增强)、特征提取和神经网络识别等方法,对合成孔径雷达(SAR)海洋溢油图像进行处理,最终期望实现半自动区分SAR图像上各类目标,并进行多种神经网络方法效果比较。研究首先对SAR海洋溢油图像进行初步人工识别;然后进行图像预处理(几何校正、滤波处理等)和基于灰度共生矩阵的特征值计算;最后,借助神经网络方法对溢油区域和疑似溢油区域进行分类,输出分类处理后的图像。通过输出图像分析发现,神经网络能对SAR海洋溢油图像中溢油、海水、土地3类目标进行明确分类,且RBF神经网络模型精度高于BP神经网络。本文提出的半自动分类方法不仅能提高SAR图像处理效率,将分类目标扩充有溢油和非溢油扩充到溢油、海水、土地3类,提高图像处理的全面性,同时通过比较RBF和BP神经网络在SAR溢油图像分类上的具体优劣,有着较好实际意义。 相似文献