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1.
The completion and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China have increased the frequency of geo-hazards and dangers in the area. To monitor and to warn of geo-hazards effectively, the Chinese government has invested billions of funds for constructing a monitoring and warning engineering system. Similar to other social infrastructure investments, a reasonable assessment of investment returns is necessary. Therefore, this study proposes an economic benefit assessment model, which considers both the expected and the actual values. The economic benefit of the geo-hazard monitoring and warning engineering in the Three Gorges Reservoir areas is evaluated. Based on the engineering characteristics, the model reasonably defines the frontier of the input and output and adds the casualties and the losses of ecological environment into the economic benefit evaluation index system. A case study on the Zhangjiawan landslide in Guojiaba Town, Zigui County, was conducted. The evaluation results show that (1) land has the largest benefit in direct reductional loss (total of 56.7 %), while the largest indirect reductional losses of the hazard-bearing bodies are in agricultural production and ecological environment (total of 97.6 %); (2) the costs-to-expected return ratio of landslide monitoring and warning engineering is 1:280, whereas the cost-to-actual benefit ratio is 1:30; (3) the accumulation of relevant information and the public knowledge of geological disasters should be strengthened.
相似文献2.
Real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides at relocated Wushan Town,the Three Gorges Reservoir,China 总被引：12，自引：6，他引：6
A special monitoring and warning system has been established and improved in the Three Gorges Reservoir area since 1999. It
is necessary to develop a real-time monitoring system on landslides because there are dense populations centered in the reservoir
area and geo-hazards may be triggered by a 30-m water level fluctuation between 145 and 175 m in elevation during reservoir
operation; the regular monitoring could not be suitable to the early warning on landslides. Since 2003, the authors have carried
out a real-time monitoring and early warning project on landslides at the relocated Wushan town in the Three Gorges Reservoir
area. The monitoring station includes Global Positioning System with high-accuracy double frequency to monitor ground displacement,
time domain reflection technology, and immobile borehole, inclinometer to monitor deep displacement, piezometer to monitor
pore water pressure, and precipitation and reservoir water level monitoring. Compared with traditional methods, the real-time
monitoring is continuous and traceable in the acquisition process, and the cycle of data acquisition is very short, usually
within hours, minutes, or even shorter. Based on the landslide monitoring experience at the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the
early warning criteria on landslide are established in which the critical situation is classified into four levels: blue,
yellow, orange, and red, respectively, expressed by no, slight, moderate, and high risk situation. Comprehensive judgment
from multimonitoring data of Yuhuangge landslide in this area since 2004 suggested that the new Wushan town will be at the
blue early warning level, although some monitoring data of individual displacement at deep borehole showed that the displacement
was increased by 5 mm in 5 months with an average velocity of 1.0 mm/month, and the data of BOTDR also showed an obvious dislocation
along a stairway on the landslide. 相似文献
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塘角村1号滑坡是三峡库区地质灾害防治监测预警工程Ⅲ期应急专业监测点。监测方法为滑体深部位移监测、地表位移监测等。本文通过滑坡变形、库区降雨、库区水位变化等资料的相关分析,总结分析了该滑坡在空间和时间域内的变形特征。降雨强度和降雨量的大小是影响滑体变形速率的因素之一,下部滑体变形对于库区水位下降敏感,当水位在一段时期内按一定速率持续下降时,滑体变形速率明显加大。 相似文献
5.
三峡大坝自2003年蓄水以来,库区形成大量涉水滑坡。长江三峡库区的浮托减重型滑坡随库水位升降,变形非协调性增加,此类滑坡变形与库水位关系的不明确性,为其监测预警预报工作带来困惑。以木鱼包滑坡为研究对象,通过全自动GPS变形监测系统获取的滑坡监测资料,结合多次的野外考察、15年专业监测和库水位升降等资料进行分析,运用有限元软件Geo-studio进行数值模拟,模拟库水位以不同速率在175~145m间升降下对滑坡稳定性的影响。研究表明:(1)库水位由145m升至175m的过程中,滑坡的稳定系数变化为先减后增再减,库水上升速率越大,前期稳定系数减小的时间段越小,随后稳定系数增加的速率也越快;(2)在库水位由175m下降到145m的过程中,整个稳定系数变化趋势为先减小后增大,呈“V”字形,存在一个最危险水面,不同的库水下降速率对应的最危险水面高度也不一样,库水位以0.4,0.6,0.8,1.0,1.6m/d的速率下降时对应的最危险水位分别在169.8,167.8,162.6,162.0,162.2m左右;(3)木鱼包滑坡作为三峡库区典型的浮托减重性滑坡,在库水位大幅度及周期性升降的影响下,一直保持着蠕滑状态,平均日位移量为0.4mm/d,目前处于基本稳定状态。所得结论对三峡库区浮托减重型滑坡预警预报工作有一定的参考与借鉴意义。 相似文献
6.
Establishing a monitoring network for an impoundment-induced landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
A methodology for monitoring system of an impoundment-induced landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China is introduced.
Currently, based on landslide geological classification, the monitoring regions and methods which include types of monitoring
instruments, placement and calibration precision of instruments, and appropriate periods for instrumental placement is confirmed.
To optimize the monitoring system, sensitivity analysis of displacements and the water table in landslides affected by reservoir
surface fluctuation is completed to determine the layout of the monitoring cross sections and the monitoring points. As a
case study, the behavior of displacements and the potential fluctuation of the water table in the Shiliushubao landslide,
produced by the gradual water impoundment at Three Gorges Reservoir, has been simulated using 3D finite element method analysis.
The sensitivity analysis of Shiliushubao landslide is investigated by the fuzzy set evaluation method. As a result, the monitoring
network of Shiliushubao landslide is established. 相似文献
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三峡库区滑坡规模大、数量多，靠工程治理耗资巨大，因此监测预警工程便成为滑坡等地质灾害一种经济有效的防灾措施。以三峡库区重庆市奉节县火石滩滑坡监测预警工程为例，介绍了滑坡监测预警工程的设计与施工技术。论述了利用监测数据对滑坡稳定性评价的方法。 相似文献
9.
建立高效合理的区域滑坡灾害降雨预警模型对滑坡防治具有重要意义.然而以往的研究多侧重于临滑预警,对蠕变型滑坡在强降雨工况下的短暂加速变形的预警研究还有待深入.以三峡库区云阳县域内滑坡为例,首先根据滑坡地表位移监测数据的特点对统计样本进行合理筛选.再通过降雨因子与滑坡发生的相关性分析以及对滑坡在降雨条件下位移变化情况的数值模拟,确定了适用于不同时间阶段的降雨统计变量.然后将考虑了滑坡规模特征的滑坡位移比（累计位移与滑坡纵长之比）作为变形指标,分时段统计滑坡地表位移监测数据与历史降雨信息,建立了日降雨数据与月位移数据的对应关系,得到了可用于确定降雨量阈值的位移比模型,并获得了云阳县蠕变型滑坡的五级预警分区.最后分别选用研究区滑坡险情实例、长年位移监测数据及极端降雨事件对模型预警效果进行检验.结果显示基于专业监测数据的位移比模型的滑坡降雨预警结果与实际情况相符,可为蠕变型滑坡的预警预报提供依据. 相似文献
10.
滑坡预测对于减轻地质灾害的危害十分重要,但对科学研究却很有挑战性。基于变形特征和位移监测数据,建立了三峡库区白水河滑坡的时间序列加法模型。在模型中,累计位移分为3个部分:趋势、周期和随机项,解释了由内部因素（地质环境,重力等）、外部因素（降雨,水库水位等）、随机因素（不确定性）共同作用的影响。在对位移数据进行统计分析后,提出了一个3次多项式模型对趋势项进行学习,并利用多算法寻优的支持向量回归机（SVR）模型对周期项进行训练与预测。结果表明,在预测精度上,基于时间序列与遗传算法-支持向量回归机（GA-SVR）耦合的位移预测模型要明显优于网格寻优（GS）以及粒子群算法（PSO）优化的支持向量回归机模型。因此,GA-SVR模型在滑坡位移预测方面可以得到较好的应用。在“阶跃型”滑坡位移预测中,GA-SVR将具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
11.
三峡水库区陈家沟滑坡地质特征与防治措施 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
在研究了三峡水库区奉节县陈家沟滑坡的工程地质条件及滑坡体基本特征的基础上，介绍了该滑坡的结构及变形特征。从滑坡形成条件、诱发变形因素两方面分析了滑坡形成的原因及诱发坡体失稳的主要因素；据岩土样品的试验值、现场大剪值，结合地区经验值及反算值，确定计算滑坡稳定性及剩余滑坡推力的抗剪强度参数，考虑到未来三峡水库蓄水，在不同工况下对滑坡体进行稳定性计算。结果表明：在天然及暴雨情况下，滑坡整体均处于稳定状态；次级滑坡体在饱水及水库蓄水后，处于临界蠕滑或失稳状态。结合工程实际对滑坡治理进行初步研究，提出回填压脚专档为幸捕以排水的综合治理措施。 相似文献
12.
The prediction of active landslide displacement is a critical component of an early warning system and helps prevent property damage and loss of human lives. For the colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir, the monitored displacement, precipitation, and reservoir level indicated that the characteristics of the deformations were closely related to the seasonal fluctuation of rainfall and reservoir level and that the displacement curve versus time showed a stepwise pattern. Besides the geological conditions, landslide displacement also depended on the variation in the influencing factors. Two typical colluvial landslides, the Baishuihe landslide and the Bazimen landslide, were selected for case studies. To analyze the different response components of the total displacement, the accumulated displacement was divided into a trend and a periodic component using a time series model. For the prediction of the periodic displacement, a back-propagation neural network model was adopted with selected factors including (1) the accumulated precipitation during the last 1-month period, (2) the accumulated precipitation over a 2-month period, (3) change of reservoir level during the last 1 month, (4) the average elevation of the reservoir level in the current month, and (5) the accumulated displacement increment during 1 year. The prediction of the displacement showed a periodic response in the displacement as a function of the variation of the influencing factors. The prediction model provided a good representation of the measured slide displacement behavior at the Baishuihe and the Bazimen sites, which can be adopted for displacement prediction and early warning of colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir. 相似文献
13.
三峡库区香溪河段典型滑坡变形特征分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文从坡形采集入手,对三峡库区香溪河段蓄水后发生变形的滑坡进行归纳统计。统计表明,近水库岸坡为凸形的滑坡更容易发生变形。对香溪河段典型滑坡进行了长期地表位移监测,获得八字门滑坡和白家包滑坡的变形曲线为台阶状,耿家坪滑坡的变形曲线为脉动形。近库水微地貌为凸岸,滑体物质为老滑坡堆积物的滑坡变形曲线为台阶状,变形具积累性;近库水微地貌为凹岸,滑体物质为崩塌堆积物的滑坡变形曲线为脉动形,变形具“弹性”。 相似文献
14.
长江是我国最大的内陆航运交通要道,三峡大坝建成后,三峡库区长约360 km的河道水位大幅抬升,原航道两岸港口码头均被淹没。在三峡库区现状岸线环境及水库水位动态调蓄条件下,开发拓展新的岸线港口码头的适宜建设区域,具有重要实际意义。基于混合评价单元,选取了地形地貌、区域稳定性、工程地质条件、交通区位条件和生态敏感性5大类因素共14个评价因子,采用改进的综合指数评价模型,对三峡库区宜昌至万州段干流岸线港口建设场地进行了适宜性评价研究。评价结果显示: (1)适宜区占13.81%,较适宜区占25.80%,较不适宜区占31.38%,不适宜区占29.01%; (2)北岸适宜区主要分布在夷陵区乐天溪镇和太平溪镇,云阳县双江镇和万州城区上、下游一带; 南岸适宜区主要分布在秭归县茅坪镇,奉节县城南岸和万州城区南岸上、下游一带。研究评价结果对今后长江宜昌至万州段干流岸线港口资源开发选址具有一定的科技指导意义。 相似文献
15.
长江是我国最大的内陆航运交通要道,三峡大坝建成后,三峡库区长约360 km的河道水位大幅抬升,原航道两岸港口码头均被淹没。在三峡库区现状岸线环境及水库水位动态调蓄条件下,开发拓展新的岸线港口码头的适宜建设区域,具有重要实际意义。基于混合评价单元,选取了地形地貌、区域稳定性、工程地质条件、交通区位条件和生态敏感性5大类因素共14个评价因子,采用改进的综合指数评价模型,对三峡库区宜昌至万州段干流岸线港口建设场地进行了适宜性评价研究。评价结果显示: (1)适宜区占13.81%,较适宜区占25.80%,较不适宜区占31.38%,不适宜区占29.01%; (2)北岸适宜区主要分布在夷陵区乐天溪镇和太平溪镇,云阳县双江镇和万州城区上、下游一带; 南岸适宜区主要分布在秭归县茅坪镇,奉节县城南岸和万州城区南岸上、下游一带。研究评价结果对今后长江宜昌至万州段干流岸线港口资源开发选址具有一定的科技指导意义。 相似文献
16.
暴雨诱发滑坡致灾机理与减灾方法研究进展 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
暴雨滑坡是多发性的地质灾害.阐述了暴雨诱发滑坡致灾机理、风险评估与减灾方法研究的重要意义.分别从暴雨诱发滑坡的地质力学机制、暴雨诱发滑坡的机理、暴雨诱发滑坡演化过程的数值模拟方法、暴雨滑坡动态风险评估方法以及暴雨诱发滑坡灾害的减灾方法5个方面,详细综述了国内外研究的主要成果和进展.在此基础上,指出了目前暴雨诱发滑坡灾害研究中存在的主要问题.最后,提出了在暴雨诱发滑坡灾害的研究中应以暴雨作用下的斜坡演化动力学过程为主线,以暴雨诱发滑坡的地质力学机制研究为基础,以暴雨诱发滑坡机理研究为核心,以暴雨诱发滑坡灾害的风险评估为手段,以最大可能地防灾减灾为目标. 相似文献
17.
The regional distribution regularity of landslides and their effects on the environments in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
On the basis of research and analysis of the landslide system of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, this paper systematically
analyzes and studies the temporal–spatial distribution law of landslides of this reservoir area and their impacts on environment
of this area. The paper puts forward that the temporal–spatial distribution of this area’s landslides is mainly controlled
by lithologic characters of strata, geological structure, valley landscape, and types of bank slope structure; landslide deformation
and failure have such characteristics as simultaneity, laggardness, cyclical instability, and stage. Besides, the paper systematically
analyzes and studies the main impacts of landslide on environment and points out that landslides and collapses will bring
about relatively serious impacts on relocation and layout of cities and towns along the banks. These impacts mainly include
the increase of relocation investment, number of migrants, and compensation for losses. Much attention and evaluation should
be paid to the impacts of Xintan Landslide and Lianziya Landslide—large landslides near the Dam—on the construction and safety
of the Three Gorges Project. However, landslides have relatively small impacts on shipping and reservoir capacity. The above-mentioned
research is of great guiding significance for the construction of the Three Georges Project, planning and construction of
cities and towns along the banks, and protection of geological environment. 相似文献
18.
目前对堆积层滑坡的变形预测大多基于数学模型或方法,忽略了引起滑坡位移显著变化的动力外因及滑坡自身的地质特征,因此,预报准确度和可信度较低。以三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡--鹤峰场镇滑坡为例,通过4组主要控制因素科学组合构建了滑坡的基本地质模型;以此为基础,重点考虑引起滑坡发生变形的库水作用动力因素,建立滑坡的数值-力学模型。通过实际监测点的变形监测结果与数值-力学模型中模型监测点的变形进行拟合分析,获取了实际时间与数值-力学模型中时步的等效关系;基于时间-时步等效关系及三峡水库设计水位调度曲线,得到了不同时步水位的波动特征;通过时步的外延,并在相应的时步段对数值-力学模型施加等效时间的库水作用,预测了滑坡在未来库水位变动条件下的变形。该预测方法既考虑了滑坡的工程地质模型又考虑了地下水作用效应,克服了纯数学方法预测的不足。 相似文献
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基于非饱和渗流的水库库岸滑坡稳定性计算 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
三峡水库蓄水后,库水位涨落和降雨入渗是导致滑坡的主要因素。本文以秭归县下土地岭滑坡为例,在一个水文年内根据库区水位调控方案并考虑库区降雨情况,运用非饱和土力学的渗流和抗剪强度理论,对滑坡稳定性进行了分析,得出在库水位涨落和降雨条件下滑坡渗流和稳定性的变化规律,对库区滑坡稳定性评价和治理有一定的指导作用。 相似文献