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1.
Targeting Climate Forecasts for Agricultural Applications in Sub-Saharan Africa: Situating Farmers in User-Space 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Abigail Amissah-Arthur 《Climatic change》2003,58(1-2):73-92
Several meteorological services in Africa now issue seasonal climate forecasts on an operational basis. However, the failure to develop a comprehensive profile of users has resulted in a considerable gap between the information that is likely to be useful to farmers and that provided and disseminated by these services. The present study develops a methodology to characterize smallholder production systems in order to identify farmer groups who may adopt and benefit from the climate forecast information in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an extensive literature review, data and information was derived from a national household survey of 1540 smallholders in 1995–1997 by the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute and spatial georeferenced data from leading world data centers. The data were analysed and synthesized using the GIS. Considerable opportunities exist for farming communities to improve their profitability using climate forecasts. Although the needs and demand for climate forecasts vary according to the production systems and market forces that determine credit, demand and input availability and, thus, the usability of forecasts depend on the characteristics of the farmers and their place in space. Based on production strategies and options available to farmers, three zones were identified grouping farmers with highly probable, probable and less probable potential of adopting climate forecasts to alter their production practices. Although a climate forecast may be useful to all farmers in the region considered, due to different options available to individual groups of farmers, however, the benefits derived from its use may not be equitable. Some of the options available to farmers in Kenya were considered in this study with a view to highlighting why some may benefit more than others. The methodology demonstrated here could be adopted for other parts of the world for: (1) selecting survey sites to determine the benefits of climate forecasts using farmers participatory rapid rural appraisals and simulation approach, and (2) target climate information where it would be most useful. 相似文献
2.
Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Change: Workshop Summary and Recommendations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change
held in Ljubljana, Solvenia, from 7 to 9 October 2002 addressed a range of important issues relating to climate variability,
climate change, agriculture, and forestry including the state of agriculture and forestry and agrometeological information,
and potential adaptation strategies for agriculture and forestry to changing climate conditions and other pressures. There
is evidence that global warming over the last millennium has already resulted in increased global average annual temperature
and changes in rainfall, with the 1990s being likely the warmest decade in the Northern Hemisphere at least. During the past
century, changes in temperature patterns have, for example, had a direct impact on the number of frost days and the length
of growing seasons with significant implications for agriculture and forestry. Land cover changes, changes in global ocean
circulation and sea surface temperature patterns, and changes in the composition of the global atmosphere are leading to changes
in rainfall. These changes may be more pronounced in the tropics. For example, crop varieties grown in the Sahel may not be
able to withstand the projected warming trends and will certainly be at risk due to projected lower amounts of rainfall as
well. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts will definitely improve in the future with a better understanding of dynamic
relationships. However, the main issue at present is how to make better use of the existing information and dispersion of
knowledge to the farm level. Direct participation by the farming communities in pilot projects on agrometeorological services
will be essential to determine the actual value of forecasts and to better identify the specific user needs. Old (visits,
extension radio) and new (internet) communication techniques, when adapted to local applications, may assist in the dissemination
of useful information to the farmers and decision makers. Some farming systems with an inherent resilience may adapt more
readily to climate pressures, making long-term adjustments to varying and changing conditions. Other systems will need interventions
for adaptation that should be more strongly supported by agrometeorological services for agricultural producers. This applies,
among others, to systems where pests and diseases play an important role. Scientists have to guide policy makers in fostering
an environment in which adaptation strategies can be effected. There is a clear need for integrating preparedness for climate
variability and climate change. In developed countries, a trend of higher yields, but with greater annual fluctuations and
changes in cropping patterns and crop calendars can be expected with changing climate scenarios. Shifts in projected cropping
patterns can be disruptive to rural societies in general. However, developed countries have the technology to adapt more readily
to the projected climate changes. In many developing countries, the present conditions of agriculture and forestry are already
marginal, due to degradation of natural resources, the use of inappropriate technologies and other stresses. For these reasons,
the ability to adapt will be more difficult in the tropics and subtropics and in countries in transition. Food security will
remain a problem in many developing countries. Nevertheless, there are many examples of traditional knowledge, indigenous
technologies and local innovations that can be used effectively as a foundation for improved farming systems. Before developing
adaptation strategies, it is essential to learn from the actual difficulties faced by farmers to cope with risk management
at the farm level. Agrometeorologists must play an important role in assisting farmers with the development of feasible strategies
to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Agrometeorologists should also advise national policy makers on the urgent
need to cope with the vulnerabilities of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and climate change. The workshop
recommendations were largely limited to adaptation. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change
is of high priority for nearly all countries, but developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Effective measures to
cope with vulnerability and adaptation need to be developed at all levels. Capacity building must be integrated into adaptation
measures for sustainable agricultural development strategies. Consequently, nations must develop strategies that effectively
focus on specific regional issues to promote sustainable development. 相似文献
3.
Petra Tschakert Regina Sagoe Gifty Ofori-Darko Samuel Nii Codjoe 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):471-502
This study explores the implications of recent extreme rainfall and flood events in the Sahel and the wider West African region for climate change adaptation. Are these events merely a temporal nuisance as suggested by the lingering desertification discourse or will more climatic extremes characterize the region over the next century? After reviewing incidences of severe rainfall and projected future climate variability, the paper examines local flood knowledge and decision-making, drawing upon a case study in Ghana. The data demonstrate that a variety of response strategies to flooding exist; yet, knowledge of and access to climate forecasts and other learning tools are essentially absent. So far, floods have not triggered mass displacement although cumulative environmental deterioration is likely to cause environmental refugees. The paper recommends to lay to rest the desertification narrative, consider the possibility of both floods and droughts, and mobilize local memory for anticipatory learning and practical adaptation. 相似文献
4.
Resource planners and managers interested in utilizing climate model output as part of their operational activities immediately confront the dilemma of scale discordance. Their functional responsibilities cover relatively small geographical areas and necessarily require data of relatively high spatial resolution. Climate models cover a large geographical, i.e. global, domain and produce data at comparatively low spatial resolution. Although the scale differences between model output and planning input are large, several techniques have been developed for disaggregating climate model output to a scale appropriate for use in water resource planning and management applications. With techniques in hand to reduce the limitations imposed by scale discordance, water resource professionals must now confront a more fundamental constraint on the use of climate models—the inability to produce accurate representations and forecasts of regional climate. Given the current capabilities of climate models, and the likelihood that the uncertainty associated with long-term climate model forecasts will remain high for some years to come, the water resources planning community may find it impractical to utilize such forecasts operationally. 相似文献
5.
Climate change is likely to exacerbate the dry conditions already experienced in southern Africa. When rainfall does come, it is likely to be in bursts of greater intensity, leading to erosion and flood damage. However, these predictions have had very little influence on policy in southern African countries. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations for Namibia indicate that over 20 years, annual losses to the Namibian economy could be up to 5% of GDP, due to the impact that climate change will have on its natural resources alone. This will affect the poorest people the most, with resulting constraints on employment opportunities and declining wages, especially for unskilled labour in rural areas. Namibia must take steps to ensure that all its policies and activities are ‘climate proofed’ and that it has a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farm workers. The need to mainstream climate change into policies and planning is clear, and it is the responsibility of industrialized nations, who have largely created the problem of climate change, to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with climate change impacts and plan for a climate-constrained future. 相似文献
6.
对我国短期气候业务预测方法的综合分析表明 :我国现有的短期气候业务预测经验和统计方法仍是主要的 ;物理因子和前兆强信号结合天气气候学分析的概念预测模型方法在业务预测中发挥重要作用 ;动力模式预测方法在业务预测中取得一定效果 .随着动力模式的进一步发展 ,短期气候业务预测将逐步走向以动力模式客观预报为指导预报的新阶段 相似文献
7.
David Letson Carlos E. Laciana Federico E. Bert Elke U. Weber Richard W. Katz Xavier I. Gonzalez Guillermo P. Podestá 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):145-170
In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers. 相似文献
8.
Randall B. Boone Kathleen A. Galvin Michael B. Coughenour Jerry W. Hudson Peter J. Weisberg Coleen H. Vogel James E. Ellis 《Climatic change》2004,64(3):317-340
Livestock production in South Africa is limited by frequent droughts. The South African Weather Service produces climate forecasts estimating the probability of low rainfall three and six months into the future. We used the ecosystem model SAVANNA applied to five commercial farms in the Vryburg region of the North-West Province, and five communal areas within the Province, to assess the utility of a climate forecast in refining drought coping strategies. Rainfall data from 1970 to 1994 were modified to represent a drought (225 mm of rainfall) in 1977/1978, and used in simulations. In a simulation on an example commercial farm we assumed a forecast was available in 1977 portending an upcoming drought, and that the owner sold 490 cattle and 70 sheep prior to the drought. Over the simulation period, the owner sold 31% more cattle when the forecast was used,versus when the forecast was ignored. Populations of livestock on both commercial and communal farms recovered more quickly following the drought when owners sold animals in response to the forecast. The economic benefit from sales is being explored using optimization techniques. Results and responses from South African livestock producers suggest that a real-time farm model linked with climate forecasting would be a valuable management tool. 相似文献
9.
Popular Gentle Rik Thwaites Digby Race Kim Alexander Tek Maraseni 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):267-282
The research was designed to answer how households and local communities in rural Nepal are responding to the impacts of climate change. Using four villages as case study units, a mixed method approach was adopted in a multi-scaled process carried out at community, district and national levels. The research found that adaptation practices being adopted differ according to household well-being and are largely governed by access to education, information and resources within the community. Responses such as livelihood and income diversification, internal migration, share cropping, taking consumption loans, use of alternative energy and use of bio-pesticides were found to mostly vary according to well-being status of the interviewees. Development of adaptation plans, strategies and support mechanisms should take account of the different adaptation practices and needs of households. If such individual situations are not considered, adaptation responses may be ineffective or even be maladaptive and increase vulnerability. The research also found that the autonomous, unplanned and reactive nature of adaptation practices chosen by rural communities can contribute to further inequity and unequal power relations. The knowledge generated from this research contributes to understanding of how climate change contributes to vulnerability, but also how local practices and lack of an effective climate policy or response measures may magnify the effects of many existing drivers of vulnerability in terms of maladaptation and increasing social inequalities. 相似文献
10.
Public perceptions of rainfall change in India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
11.
Due to the increasing requirement for high-level weather and climate forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to exploit a strategy for model error correction while developing numerical modeling and data assimilation techniques. This study classifies the correction strategies according to the types of forecast errors, and reviews recent studies on these correction strategies. Among others, the analogue-dynamical method has been developed in China, which combines statistical methods with the dynamical model, corrects model errors based on analogue information, and effectively utilizes historical data in dynamical forecasts. In this study, the fundamental principles and technical solutions of the analogue-dynamical method and associated development history for forecasts on different timescales are introduced. It is shown that this method can effectively improve medium- and extended-range forecasts, monthly-average circulation forecast, and short-term climate prediction. As an innovative technique independently developed in China, the analogue- dynamical method plays an important role in both weather forecast and climate prediction, and has potential applications in wider fields. 相似文献
12.
Integrating local hybrid knowledge and state support for climate change adaptation in the Asian Highlands 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
New hybrid forms of climate change adaptation combining local and nonlocal/scientific knowledge are emerging across the Asian Highlands region. Yet, while local adaptive capacity can be based on place-based knowledge that governments often lack, communities still need assistance from states to better adjust to climate change and socioeconomic impacts. Using a regional literature review, we evaluate the role of evolving hybrid forms of adaptive knowledge for coping with environmental and social change. The literature is clear that appreciating local knowledge is not enough; enfranchising people with representative decision-making and resource rights and responsibilities is also required so that people can employ that knowledge toward climate adaptation. Into the future, Asian Highland climate change actions must include more targeted state support for locally evolving hybrid knowledge, behaviors and institutions. 相似文献
13.
Andrew Challinor Tim Wheeler Chris Garforth Peter Craufurd Amir Kassam 《Climatic change》2007,83(3):381-399
Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant
role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop
systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the
adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts
of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety
of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed
by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved
highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of
farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that
governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience
to climate change at local, national and transnational level. 相似文献
14.
An underlying understanding among adaptation and community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) scholars is the existence of important feedbacks between local resource management institutions and individual adaptive capacity. The relationship between CBNRM and individual adaptive capacity is of global concern given the ubiquity of CBNRM worldwide, the patent impacts of global changes at local levels, and the recent calls for the integration of climate and rural development policies. So far, however, there have not been formal, large-n studies of that relationship. This study aims to fill that gap by testing whether the performance of community-based water management institutions and communal land regimes have an impact on the effectiveness of farmers’ adaptation responses to climatic and global market disturbances. For this purpose, the study relies on a unique dataset of individual and collective features obtained from water user associations (WUAs) and ejidos in Mexico. According to the regression results, well-functioning community-based water management institutions have a positive and significant impact on individual farmers’ self-reported response effectiveness. The impact of communal land property is also significant but negative. These effects, which hold only in the context of climate disturbances but not market disturbances, can be explained by looking at the support given by the associations to farmers, and issues of communal land marginalization, respectively. Policies that strengthen the autonomy and capacity for cooperation of WUAs and ameliorate structural deficits in communal land regimes shall not only guarantee a long-advocated path for rural development but also help farmers deal with some of the climatic uncertainties that increasingly threaten agriculture. 相似文献
15.
Even with substantially increased attention to climate adaptation in developing countries in recent years, there are a number of important remaining research needs: better incorporating stakeholder input; using replicable methodologies to provide comparability across different settings; assuring that stakeholder input reflects the results of climate science, not simply perceptions; and effectively linking stakeholder input with the regional and national levels at which policy changes are made. This study reports the results of a methodology for identifying and prioritizing local, stakeholder-driven response options to climate change in agriculture. The approach is based on multi-criteria scoring methods previously applied to research planning and priority-setting in agricultural and natural resource management research, public health, and other areas. The methodology is a sequential approach built around needs assessments by local stakeholders; the incorporation of climate science results; the sharing of these results and climate adaption response options with stakeholders at a series of workshops; stakeholder priority-setting exercises using multi-criteria scoring; and validation with policymakers. The application is to three diverse agroecosystems in Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. Among the many findings is that, notwithstanding the wide diversity of agro-ecosystems, there are numerous similarities in the agricultural adaptation responses prioritized by local stakeholders. 相似文献
16.
Kyle Powys Whyte 《Climatic change》2013,120(3):517-530
Federally-recognized tribes must adapt to many ecological challenges arising from climate change, from the effects of glacier retreat on the habitats of culturally significant species to how sea leave rise forces human communities to relocate. The governmental and social institutions supporting tribes in adapting to climate change are often constrained by political obstructions, raising concerns about justice. Beyond typical uses of justice, which call attention to violations of formal rights or to considerations about the degree to which some populations may have caused anthropogenic climate change, a justice framework should guide how leaders, scientists and professionals of all heritages and who work with or for federally-recognized tribes understand what actions are morally essential for supporting tribes’ adaptation efforts. This paper motivates a shift to a forward-looking framework of justice. The framework situates justice within the systems of responsibilities that matter to tribes and many others, which range from webs of inter-species relationships to government-to-government partnerships. Justice is achieved when these systems of responsibilities operate in ways that support the continued flourishing of tribal communities. 相似文献
17.
A major challenge in planning for adaptation to climate change is to assess future development not only in relation to climate but also in relation to social, economic and political changes that affect the capacity for adaptation or otherwise play a role in decision making. One approach is to use scenario methods. This article presents a methodology that combines top-down scenarios and bottom-up approaches to scenario building, with the aim of articulating local so-called extended socio-economic pathways. Specifically, we used the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the global scenario framework as developed by the climate research community to present boundary conditions about potential global change in workshop discussion with local and regional actors in the Barents region. We relate the results from these workshops to the different elements of the global SSPs and discuss potential and limitations of the method in relation to use in decision making processes. 相似文献
18.
Crop and livestock farmers must respond to climate change, including a range of physical and cultural impacts and risks. In rural northern California, farmers face extreme drought and catastrophic wildfires with increasing frequency. I draw on an extended case study of farmers and agricultural advisors in Siskiyou County to understand how rural agriculturalists perceive risks when navigating climate change discourses. While farmers are changing their management practices in response to the physical effects of climate change, many perceive substantial social risks within their communities if they align themselves publicly with climate change beliefs or actions. Perceived social consequences included loss of access to the benefits of membership in formal and informal farming groups. Efforts focused on educating or convincing farmers of climate science may, in some contexts, increase rather than decrease the perceived social risks of climate action. The framing of climate policies, programs, and practices – especially by public agricultural advisors like Cooperative Extension Advisors and local USDA staff (e.g., Farm Service Agency) – is important not only for increasing farmer participation, but also for reducing perceived social risks associated with climate change. Interventions that focus on livelihood impacts and validate existing land stewardship-oriented values have more potential to increase the pace and scale of climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture. 相似文献
19.
Bart van den Hurk Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Geert Lenderink Wilco Hazeleger Rein Haarsma Hylke de Vries 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1683-1697
For the construction of regional climate change scenarios spanning a relevant fraction of the spread in climate model projections, an inventory of major drivers of regional climate change is needed. For the Netherlands, a previous set of regional climate change scenarios was based on the decomposition of local temperature/precipitation changes into components directly linked to the level of global warming, and components related to changes in the regional atmospheric circulation. In this study this decomposition is revisited utilizing the extensive modelling results from the CMIP5 model ensemble in support for the 5th IPCC assessment. Rather than selecting a number of GCMs based on performance metrics or relevant response features, a regression technique was developed to utilize all available model projections. The large number of projections allows a quantification of the separate contributions of emission scenarios, systematic model responses and natural variability to the total likelihood range. Natural variability plays a minor role in modelled differences in the global mean temperature response, but contributes for up to 50 % to the range of mean sea level pressure responses and local precipitation. Using key indicators (“steering variables”) for the temperature and circulation response, the range in local seasonal mean temperature and precipitation responses can be fairly well reproduced. 相似文献
20.
Gina Ziervogel Peter Johnston Margaret Matthew Pierre Mukheibir 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):537-554
Water resources, and in particular run-off, are significantly affected by climate variability. At present, there are few examples of how the water management sector integrates information about changing intra-annual climate conditions in a systematic manner in developing countries. This paper, using the case study of Cape Town in the Western Cape, South Africa, identifies processes and products to facilitate increased uptake of seasonal climate forecasts among water resource managers. Results suggest that existing seasonal forecasts do not focus enough on specific users’ needs. In order to increase uptake, forecasts need to include information on the likely impact of precipitation variability on runoff and water availability. More opportunities are also needed for those with climate knowledge to interact with water resource managers, particularly in the developing country context where municipal managers’ capacity is strained. Although there are challenges that need to be overcome in using probabilistic climate information, seasonal forecast information tailored to the needs of water resource planners has the potential to support annual planning and is therefore a means of adapting to climate change. 相似文献