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1.
Mountain and lowland watersheds are two distinct geographical units with considerably different hydrological processes. Understanding their hydrological processes in the context of future climate change and land use scenarios is important for water resource management. This study investigated hydrological processes and their driving factors and eco-hydrological impacts for these two geographical units in the Xitiaoxi watershed, East China, and quantified their differences through hydrological modelling. Hydrological processes in 24 mountain watersheds and 143 lowland watersheds were simulated based on a raster-based Xin'anjiang model and a Nitrogen Dynamic Polder (NDP) model, respectively. These two models were calibrated and validated with an acceptable performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.81 and 0.50, respectively) for simulating discharge for mountain watersheds and water level for lowland watersheds. Then, an Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) model was used to help quantify the alterations to the hydrological process and their resulting eco-hydrological impacts. Based on the validated models, scenario analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological processes. The simulation results revealed that (a) climate change would cause a larger increase in annual runoff than that under land use scenario in the mountain watersheds, with variations of 19.9 and 10.5% for the 2050s, respectively. (b) Land use change was more responsible for the streamflow increment than climate change in the lowland watersheds, causing an annual runoff to increase by 27.4 and 16.2% for the 2050s, respectively. (c) Land use can enhance the response of streamflow to the climatic variation. (d) The above-mentioned hydrological variations were notable in flood and dry season in the mountain watersheds, and they were significant in rice season in the lowland watersheds. (e) Their resulting degradation of ecological diversity was more susceptible to future climate change in the two watersheds. This study demonstrated that mountain and lowland watersheds showed distinct differences in hydrological processes and their responses to climate and land use changes. 相似文献
2.
Vegetation dynamics and hydrological processes are major components of terrestrial ecosystems, and they interact strongly with each other. Studies of hydrological responses to vegetation dynamics are usually conducted on a long-term scale, whereas the hydrological responses within a single year have rarely been studied. In the present study, Poyang Lake runoff (PYL-R) model, a new hydrological model coupled with leaf area index (LAI) remote sensing products, was established and applied to simulate the runoff process in the Poyang Lake Watershed. The simulation results obtained in three sub-watersheds of the Poyang Lake Watershed (Ganjiang Watershed, Xinjiang Watershed, and Fuhe Watershed) agreed well with the observations (Nash efficiency coefficient values and R values exceeded 0.6 and 0.9, respectively). The PYL-R experiment (PYL-R-E) model was designed as a contrast model without considering the impact of LAI. The simulated monthly runoff results obtained using the PYL-R and PYL-R-E models were compared, and the within-year changes in the differences between the two results were analysed to evaluate and quantify the impact of vegetation dynamic on runoff. From January to July, when LAI values increased by around 2.6 m2 m−2, monthly runoff depth differences between PYL-R and PYL-R-E results increased by 35.25, 27.98, and 29.14 mm in the Ganjiang, Xinjiang, and Fuhe watersheds, respectively. Dense vegetation caused high interception and evapotranspiration during summer, which largely reduced runoff. By contrast, during winter, the effect of vegetation was weaker on runoff process whereas the impacts of other factors (e.g., precipitation) were higher. The sensitivity of monthly runoff to vegetation dynamics varied greatly throughout the whole year. In particular, during August and September, the LAI-caused runoff changes were very high, accounting for 28–42% of monthly runoff in the sub-watersheds. Our findings clarify the effects of changes in vegetation on hydrological processes over short time scales, thereby providing insights into the effects of scale on eco-hydrological processes. 相似文献
3.
在半湿润半干旱地区,下垫面条件复杂,产流机制混合多变,而现有的水文模型由于其固定的结构和模式,无法灵活地模拟不同下垫面特征的洪水过程.本文利用CN-地形指数法将流域划分为超渗主导子流域和蓄满主导子流域.将新安江模型(XAJ)、新安江-Green-Ampt模型(XAJG)和Green-Ampt模型(GA)相结合,在子流域分类的基础上构建空间组合模型(SCMs),并在半湿润的东湾流域和半干旱的志丹流域进行检验.结果表明:东湾流域的参数由水文模型来主导;而志丹流域的参数受主导径流影响很大.在东湾流域,偏蓄满的模型模拟结果优于偏超渗的模型,且SCM2模型(XAJ和XAJG的组合模型)的模拟效果最好(径流深合格率为75%,洪峰合格率75%);而SCM5模型(GA和XAJG的组合模型)在以超渗产流为主的志丹流域模拟最好(径流深合格率53.3%,洪峰合格率53.3%).在半干旱半湿润流域,SCMs模型结构灵活,在地形和土壤数据的驱动下,具有更合理的模型结构和参数,模拟精度较高,适应性较强. 相似文献
4.
Mikołaj Piniewski Frank Voss Ilona Bärlund Tomasz Okruszko Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):737-754
Abstract The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754. 相似文献
5.
将雷达测雨数据与分布式水文模型相耦合进行径流过程模拟,分析雷达测雨误差及其径流过程模拟效果,研究雷达测雨误差对径流过程模拟的影响效应.在对淮河流域气象中心业务化的5种淮河流域雷达测雨数据进行误差分析的基础上,采用雷达测雨数据驱动HEC-HMS水文模型,模拟分析淮河息县水文站以上流域2007年7月1-10日强降雨集中期的径流过程.结果表明:利用雷达测雨数据的径流模拟结果与实测资料的模拟结果基本吻合,各种雷达测雨数据误差经过HEC-HMS水文模型传递后,误差明显减小.联合校准法对应的模拟效果最好,过程流量相对误差NBs'和洪峰流量相对误差Z'分别为-20.2%和-13.3%. 相似文献
6.
针对目前研究蒸散发时间尺度转换方面的不足,构建了月蒸散发时间尺度转换模型,对淮河史灌河流域黄泥庄小流域1982-1987年月蒸散发能力进行逐栅格解集,并与改进后的AFFDEF分布式水文模型耦合进行日径流过程模拟.结果显示:解集产生的日蒸散发能力随时间在平均值附近波动变化,能很好地体现日蒸发量的时间变异特点;模拟的日径流过程的精度较高,平均Nash效率系数在80%以上,径流深相对误差都在10%以内,平均泊松相关系数为0.912,模拟流量过程曲线与实测值匹配的较好;经与采用平均解集模式的模拟结果对比发现,耦合蒸散发时间尺度转换模型后的模拟精度与前者大体相当,部分指标略优于前者.蒸散发时间尺度转换模型解集产生的日蒸散发量序列能够反映日蒸发量的时间变异特点,更能满足区域日降雨径流过程模拟的需要,可为解决资料匮乏区域水文模拟提供一个新途径. 相似文献
7.
Hydrological models at a monthly time‐scale are important tools for hydrological analysis, such as in impact assessment of climate change and regional water resources planning. Traditionally, monthly models adopt a conceptual, lumped‐parameter approach and cannot account for spatial variations of basin characteristics and climatic inputs. A large requirement for data often severely limits the utility of physically based, distributed‐parameter models. Based on the variable‐source‐area concept, we considered basin topography and rainfall to be two major factors whose spatial variations play a dominant role in runoff generation and developed a monthly model that is able to account for their influences in the spatial and temporal dynamics of water balance. As a hybrid of the Xinanjiang model and TOPMODEL, the new model is constructed by innovatively making use of the highly acclaimed simulation techniques in the two existing models. A major contribution of this model development study is to adopt the technique of implicit representation of soil moisture characteristics in the Xinanjiang model and use the TOPMODEL concept to integrate terrain variations into runoff simulation. Specifically, the TOPMODEL topographic index ln(a/tanβ) is converted into an index of relative difficulty in runoff generation (IRDG) and then the cumulative frequency distribution of IRDG is used to substitute the parabolic curve, which represents the spatial variation of soil storage capacity in the Xinanjiang model. Digital elevation model data play a key role in the modelling procedures on a geographical information system platform, including basin segmentation, estimation of rainfall for each sub‐basin and computation of terrain characteristics. Other monthly data for model calibration and validation are rainfall, pan evaporation and runoff. The new model has only three parameters to be estimated, i.e. watershed‐average field capacity WM, pan coefficient η and runoff generation coefficient α. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that runoff is least sensitive to WM and, therefore, it can be determined by a prior estimation based on the climate and soil properties of the study basin. The other two parameters can be determined using optimization methods. Model testing was carried out in a number of nested sub‐basins of two watersheds (Yuanjiang River and Dongjiang River) in the humid region in central and southern China. Simulation results show that the model is capable of describing spatial and temporal variations of water balance components, including soil moisture content, evapotranspiration and runoff, over the watershed. With a minimal requirement for input data and parameterization, this terrain‐based distributed model is a valuable contribution to the ever‐advancing technology of hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1165-1175
Abstract Steep topography and land-use transformations in Himalayan watersheds have a major impact on hydrological characteristics and flow regimes, and greatly affect the perenniality and sustainability of water resources in the region. To identify the appropriate conservation measures in a watershed properly, and, in particular, to augment flow during lean periods, accurate estimation of streamflow is essential. Due to the complexity of rainfall—runoff relationships in hilly watersheds and non-availability of reliable data, process-based models have limited applicability. In this study, data-driven models, based upon the Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) technique, were employed to predict streamflow (surface runoff, baseflow and total runoff) in three mid-Himalayan micro-watersheds. In addition, the effect of length of historical records on the performance of MARS models was critically evaluated. Though acceptable MARS models could be developed with a 2-year data set, their performance improved considerably with a 3-year data set. Various indicators of model performance, such as correlation coefficient, average deviation, average absolute deviation and modelling efficiency, showed significant improvement for simulation of surface runoff, baseflow and total flow. To further analyse the versatility and general applicability of the MARS approach, 2-year data sets were used to develop the model and test it on a third-year data set to assess its performance. The models simulated the surface runoff, baseflow and total flow reasonably well and can be reliably applied in ungauged small watersheds under identical agro-climatic settings. 相似文献
9.
A number of watershed‐scale hydrological models include Richards' equation (RE) solutions, but the literature is sparse on information as to the appropriate application of RE at the watershed scale. In most published applications of RE in distributed watershed‐scale hydrological modelling, coarse vertical resolutions are used to decrease the computational burden. Compared to point‐ or field‐scale studies, application at the watershed scale is complicated by diverse runoff production mechanisms, groundwater effects on runoff production, runon phenomena and heterogeneous watershed characteristics. An essential element of the numerical solution of RE is that the solution converges as the spatial resolution increases. Spatial convergence studies can be used to identify the proper resolution that accurately describes the solution with maximum computational efficiency, when using physically realistic parameter values. In this study, spatial convergence studies are conducted using the two‐dimensional, distributed‐parameter, gridded surface subsurface hydrological analysis (GSSHA) model, which solves RE to simulate vadose zone fluxes. Tests to determine if the required discretization is strongly a function of dominant runoff production mechanism are conducted using data from two very different watersheds, the Hortonian Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed and the non‐Hortonian Muddy Brook watershed. Total infiltration, stream flow and evapotranspiration for the entire simulation period are used to compute comparison statistics. The influences of upper and lower boundary conditions on the solution accuracy are also explored. Results indicate that to simulate hydrological fluxes accurately at both watersheds small vertical cell sizes, of the order of 1 cm, are required near the soil surface, but not throughout the soil column. The appropriate choice of approximations for calculating the near soil‐surface unsaturated hydraulic conductivity can yield modest increases in the required cell size. Results for both watersheds are quite similar, even though the soils and runoff production mechanisms differ greatly between the two catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
This paper describes the results of benchmark testing of land use change impact on direct runoff using Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) model in two ungauged neighbouring urban watersheds (Çınar and Kadıyakuplu) in Istanbul, Turkey. To examine this impact, the model was applied to daily rainfall data using three different dated (1982, 1996 and 2012) hydrological soil groups and land use of the two ungauged urban watersheds. Finally, the impact of land use change and model performance were evaluated with the rainfall-runoff regression, the coefficient of determination and the NSE test using benchmark runoff data based on 1982 land use conditions. The results of the analysis indicate that the changing of land use types from natural surfaces to impervious surfaces has a significant impact on surface runoff. Additionally, remarkable spatial variations of the land use changes and their impact on the runoff in 1996 and 2012 were more detected in the Çınar watershed compared with the Kadıyakuplu watershed. The planning decision on land use of the watersheds, has vital role in these differences. The results of this research also reveal that change to intensive land use in urban watersheds has a significantly larger impact on runoff generation than those rainfall. 相似文献
11.
Bias correction methods are usually applied to climate model outputs before using these outputs for hydrological climate change impact studies. However, the use of a bias correction procedure is debatable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs between future and historical periods. The direct use of climate model outputs for impact studies has therefore been recommended in a few studies. This study investigates the possibility of using reanalysis‐driven regional climate model (RCM) outputs directly for hydrological modelling by comparing the performance of bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected climate simulations in hydrological simulations over 246 watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. When using RCM outputs directly, the hydrological model is specifically calibrated using RCM simulations. Two evaluation metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] and transformed root mean square error [TRMSE]) and three hydrological indicators (mean, high, and low flows) are used as criteria for this comparison. Two reanalysis‐driven RCMs with resolutions of 45 km and 15 km are used to investigate the scale effect of climate model simulations and bias correction approaches on hydrology modelling. The results show that nonbias‐corrected simulations perform better than bias‐corrected simulations for the reproduction of the observed streamflows when using NSE and TRMSE as criteria. The nonbias‐corrected simulations are also better than or comparable with the bias‐corrected simulations in terms of reproducing the three hydrological indicators. These results imply that the raw RCM outputs driven by reanalysis can be used directly for hydrological modelling with a specific calibration of hydrological models using these datasets when gauged observations are scarce or unavailable. The nonbias‐corrected simulations (at a minimum) should be provided to end users, along with the bias‐corrected ones, especially for studying the uncertainty of hydrological climate change impacts. This is especially true when using an RCM with a high resolution, since the scale effect is observed when the RCM resolution increases from a 45‐km to a 15‐km scale. 相似文献
12.
Francesca Pianosi Andrea Castelletti Leonardo Mancusi Elisabetta Garofalo 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2524-2534
Despite human is an increasingly significant component of the hydrologic cycle in many river basins, most hydrologic models are still developed to accurately reproduce the natural processes and ignore the effect of human activities on the watershed response. This results in non‐stationary model forecast errors and poor predicting performance every time these models are used in non‐pristine watersheds. In the last decade, the representation of human activities in hydrological models has been extensively studied. However, mathematical models integrating the human and the natural dimension are not very common in hydrological applications and nearly unknown in the day‐to‐day practice. In this paper, we propose a new simple data‐driven flow forecast correction method that can be used to simultaneously tackle forecast errors from structural, parameter and input uncertainty, and errors that arise from neglecting human‐induced alterations in conceptual rainfall–runoff models. The correction system is composed of two layers: (i) a classification system that, based on the current flow condition, detects whether the source of error is natural or human induced and (ii) a set of error correction models that are alternatively activated, each tailored to the specific source of errors. As a case study, we consider the highly anthropized Aniene river basin in Italy, where a flow forecasting system is being established to support the operation of a hydropower dam. Results show that, even by using very basic methods, namely if‐then classification rules and linear correction models, the proposed methodology considerably improves the forecasting capability of the original hydrological model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
半湿润流域水文模型比较与集合预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选择7种水文模型分别在中国北部3个半湿润流域做模拟对比,分析不同水文模型在各流域的适用性,并使用贝叶斯模型平均法对不同模型集合,比较各种集合方法的优势,研究贝叶斯模型平均法的应用效果.研究结果表明,以蓄满产流模式为主的模型在半湿润流域应用效果较好,针对不同流域特点对传统模型进行改进可以提高模拟精度.贝叶斯模型平均法能提供较好的确定性预报结果和概率预报结果,仅对少数模拟效果好的模型进行集合,并不能有效提高预报精度,适当增加参与集合的模型数量能使贝叶斯模型平均法更好地综合各模型优势,提高预报结果的精度. 相似文献
14.
Delineating floodplain and upland areas for hydrologic models: a comparison of methods 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 H. Rathjens K. Bieger I. Chaubey J. G. Arnold P. M. Allen R. Srinivasan D. D. Bosch M. Volk 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4367-4383
A spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes in hydrologic models facilitates the identification of critical source areas and the placement of management and conservation measures. Floodplains are critical landscape features that differ from neighbouring uplands in terms of their hydrological processes and functions. Accordingly, an important step in watershed modelling is the representation of floodplain and upland areas within a watershed. The aim of this study is (1) to evaluate four floodplain–upland delineation methods that use readily available topographic data (topographic wetness index, slope position, uniform flood stage, and variable flood stage) with regard to their suitability for hydrological models and (2) to introduce an evaluation scheme for the delineated landscape units. The methods are tested in three U.S. watersheds ranging in size from 334 to 629 km2 with different climatic, hydrological, and geomorphological characteristics. Evaluation of the landscape delineation methods includes visual comparisons, error matrices (i.e. cross‐tabulations of delineated vs reference data), and geometric accuracy metrics. Reference data were obtained from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps. Results suggest that the slope position and the variable flood stage method work very well in all three watersheds. Overall percentages of floodplain and upland areas allocated correctly were obtained by comparing delineated and reference data. Values range from 83 to 93% for the slope position and from 80 to 95% for the variable flood stage method. Future studies will incorporate these two floodplain–upland delineation methods into the subwatershed‐based hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to improve the representation of hydrological processes within floodplain and upland areas. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
AbstractThe impact of fire on daily discharges from two mountainous basins located in the permafrost region of Eastern Siberia, the Vitimkan (969 km2) and Vitim (18 200 km2) rivers, affected by fire over 78% and 49% of their areas, respectively, in 2003, was investigated. The results of hydrological and meteorological data analysis suggest that the Vitimkan River basin had a rapid and profound hydrological response to wildfire in 2003 expressed through a 41% (133 mm) increase of summer flow. Conversely, the larger Vitim River basin showed no significant changes in discharge after the fire. The parameters of the process-based hydrological model Hydrograph were estimated for pre-fire conditions. The results of runoff simulations conducted for the continuous pre-fire periods of 1966–2002 and 1970–2002 for the Vitimkan and Vitim river basins, respectively, on a daily time step, showed satisfactory agreement with the observed flow series of both basins. Significant underestimation of precipitation and its poor representativeness for mountainous watersheds was revealed as the main cause of observed and simulated flow discrepancies, especially for high flood events. The set of dynamic parameters was developed based on data analysis and post-fire landscape changes as derived from a literature review. The model was applied to investigate the processes in the soil column and their effect on runoff formation during the post-fire period. The new set of model parameters implied the intensification of soil thaw, reduction of infiltration rate and evapotranspiration, and increase of upper subsurface flow fraction in summer flood events following the fire. According to modelling results, the post-fire thaw depth exceeded the pre-fire thaw depth by 0.4–0.7 m. Total evapotranspiration reduced by 40% in summer months, while surface flow increased almost 2.5 times during maximum flood events. 相似文献
16.
Modelling surface runoff to evaluate the effects of wildfires in multiple semi‐arid,shrubland‐dominated catchments 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Wildfires change the infiltration properties of soil, reduce the amount of interception and result in increased runoff. A wildfire at Northeast Attica, Central Greece, in August 2009, destroyed approximately one third of a study area consisting of a mixture of shrublands, pastures and pines. The present study simultaneously models multiple semi‐arid, shrubland‐dominated Mediterranean catchments and assesses the hydrological response (mean annual and monthly runoff and runoff coefficients) during the first few years following wildfires. A physically based, hydrological model (MIKE SHE) was chosen. Calibration and validation results of mean monthly discharge presented very good agreement with the observed data for the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire period for two subcatchments (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 79.7%). The model was then used to assess the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire runoff responses for each of seven catchments in the study area. Mean annual surface runoff increased for the first year and after the second year following the wildfires increased by 112% and 166%, respectively. These values are within the range observed in similar cases of monitored sites. This modelling approach may provide a way of prioritizing catchment selection with respect to post‐fire remediation activities. Additionally, this modelling assessment methodology would be valuable to other semi‐arid areas because it provides an important means for comprehensively assessing post‐wildfire response over large regions and therefore attempts to address some of the scaled issues in the specific literature field of research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
ABSTRACTA hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed based on the combined concept of Clark’s unit hydrograph and its spatial decomposition methods, incorporating refined spatially variable flow dynamics to implement hydrological simulation for spatially distributed rainfall–runoff flow. In Distributed-Clark, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method is utilized to estimate spatially distributed runoff depth and a set of separated unit hydrographs is used for runoff routing to obtain a direct runoff flow hydrograph. Case studies (four watersheds in the central part of the USA) using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon-based) rainfall data of storm events were used to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrate relatively good fit to observed streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) of 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.86, as well as a better fit in comparison with outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations for two models including HEC-HMS. 相似文献
18.
This article describes and formulates a model designed to simulate runoff in wet weather events, called reservoir rainfall–runoff geomorphological model (R3GeM). In these wetlands, soil saturation is the main mechanism for the generation of surface runoff. To determine the saturated areas, the model applies a relationship based on the topographic index, between watershed storage and saturated surface. Precipitation is separated into surface runoff by saturation, subsurface runoff and losses; then, the flow of surface and subsurface runoff is performed. This hydrological model has five parameters and has been implemented in 37 events in Aixola watershed and 15 in Oiartzun watershed, both located on the Cantabrian coast of Spain. We analysed the influence of these five parameters in their behaviour, and we have proven, noting the efficiency gains, that the proposed model is valid to simulate the rainfall–runoff process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
ABSTRACT Understanding of rainfall–runoff model performance under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions is limited. This study compared lumped (IHACRES), semi-distributed (HEC-HMS) and fully-distributed (SWATgrid) hydrological models to determine which most realistically simulates runoff in catchments where non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships exists. The models were calibrated and validated under different hydroclimatic conditions (Average, Wet and Dry) for two heterogeneous catchments in southeast Australia (SEA). SWATgrid realistically simulates runoff in the smaller catchment under most hydroclimatic conditions but fails when the model is calibrated in Dry conditions and validated in Wet. All three models perform poorly in the larger catchment irrespective of hydroclimatic conditions. This highlights the need for more research aimed at improving the ability of hydrological models to realistically incorporate the physical processes causing non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships. Although the study is focussed on SEA, the insights gained are useful for all regions which experience large hydroclimatic variability and multi-year/decadal droughts. 相似文献
20.
By utilizing functional relationships based on observations at plot or field scales, water quality models first compute surface runoff and then use it as the primary governing variable to estimate sediment and nutrient transport. When these models are applied at watershed scales, this serial model structure, coupling a surface runoff sub-model with a water quality sub-model, may be inappropriate because dominant hydrological processes differ among scales. A parallel modeling approach is proposed to evaluate how best to combine dominant hydrological processes for predicting water quality at watershed scales. In the parallel scheme, dominant variables of water quality models are identified based entirely on their statistical significance using time series analysis. Four surface runoff models of different model complexity were assessed using both the serial and parallel approaches to quantify the uncertainty on forcing variables used to predict water quality. The eight alternative model structures were tested against a 25-year high-resolution data set of streamflow, suspended sediment discharge, and phosphorous discharge at weekly time steps. Models using the parallel approach consistently performed better than serial-based models, by having less error in predictions of watershed scale streamflow, sediment and phosphorus, which suggests model structures of water quantity and quality models at watershed scales should be reformulated by incorporating the dominant variables. The implication is that hydrological models should be constructed in a way that avoids stacking one sub-model with one set of scale assumptions onto the front end of another sub-model with a different set of scale assumptions. 相似文献