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数值预报产品统计释用技术在热带气旋路径客观预报中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
首先对应用数值预报产品统计释脾技术的效果进行了统计。结果表明,数值预报产品和技术的应用改善了热带气旋路径客观预报中预测因子的预报能力,提高了模式的预报技巧并拓展了有效预报时效。继而对热带气旋路径客观预报中若干统计释用技术问题进行了讨论,并指出:在应用数值预报产品构造热带气旋路径客观预报模式时,采用大样本资料和完全预报方法,细心构造反映各种天气系统特征和物理量场的预报因子,应用多时刻产品并对NWP产 相似文献
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首先对应用数值预报产品统计释用技术的效果进行了统计,结果表明,数值预报产品统计释用技术的应用改善了热带气旋路径客观预报中预报因子的预报能力,提高了模式的预报技巧并拓展了有效预报时效。继而对热带气旋路径客观预报中若干统计释用技术问题进行了讨论,并指出:在应用数值预报产品构造热带气旋路径客观预报模式时,采用大样本资料和完全预报方法,细心构造反映各种天气系统特征和物理量场的预报因子,应用多时刻NWP产品并对NWP产品进行统计订正。对多种预报模式的预报结果进行综合集成等技术是提高预报技巧和稳定性的有效途径。 相似文献
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数值预报产品检验和评估 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
通过国家级数值预报T213模式、EC模式下发产品对影响海南的热带气旋主观性检验结果表明,T213模式不管是对稳定路径还是转折路径的热带气旋在生成、移动路径以及登陆点都与实况相差很大;而EC模式对不管是转折还是稳定路径的热带气旋,都能够对移动路径、登陆点以及转折点都能够做出准确的预报;而在客观性检验的结果中也可看出T213模式和EC模式的预报能力的优劣性。因此,总体来说,在热带气旋的数值预报产品中,EC模式的预报能力明显比T213模式强,具有很高的参考意义。另外在温度场的预报中,T213模式相对于MM5模式,其预报能力具有一定的可信度,在日常预报中具有参考价值。 相似文献
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热带气旋路径预报概率圆应用 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
热带气旋路径预报采用预报概率圆可以有效减少不可避免的预报错误,在2004~2007年中央气象台主观路径预报资料的基础上,使用统计方法并根据预报误差与热带气旋预报移动速度和移动方向的相关关系分类,分别计算了相应的24、48、72 h路径预报的70%概率圆半径,修改了原来业务中使用的概率圆半径,以期替代原来在业务中使用的概率圆半径。同时应用修改后的概率圆半径对近5年的路径主观预报进行了分析,给出了2004~2007年预报误差分布特点以及较大预报误差热带气旋个例的误差产生原因,并讨论了该方法改进的可能性。 相似文献
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2013年欧洲中心台风集合预报的检验 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
广州中心气象台利用中国气象局下发的欧洲中心台风集合预报数据,制作了台风集合预报产品,供业务参考应用。利用欧洲中心台风集合预报数据,对2013年1307—1331号热带气旋的集合预报路径和强度进行检验,通过对比集合平均、模式高分辨率确定性预报和预报员主观预报,发现路径集合平均在24~120 h预报误差最小;在有限的预报样本数中,从热带风暴到台风级别的热带气旋,各预报时效路径集合平均的误差随强度增强而减小;强引导气流背景下的热带气旋预报误差小于弱引导气流的误差。对比强度集合平均和模式高分辨率确定性预报,发现各时效集合平均的误差比确定性预报大,随着预报时效的延长误差没有明显增大或减小的趋势,而且强度集合平均预报,在中心最低气压、中心最大风速、热带气旋等级都表现出明显的系统性偏弱特征;对不同级别的热带气旋强度预报,集合平均的误差随强度增强而增大,即强度集合预报对强度较弱的热带气旋有更高的准确率;对比受强、弱引导气流影响的两类热带气旋,集合平均对受弱引导气流影响的一类预报误差更小。 相似文献
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该文描述了一个分析和预报热带气旋路径的交互系统的设计概念和业务试验。设计概念强调了一种交互系统,在这种系统中预报员能客观地试验各种设想,而不必从来自标准方法的相互冲突的预报中主观地作出选择。该系统是为放在预报工作台上的个人计算机或工作站而设计。Barnes或者统计内插方案可用来分析预报员选定的任何大气高度或各层平均的原始或仿造的观测。然后通过积分无辐散正压模式来制作路径预报。 1990年西北太平洋热带气旋外场试验期间的业务试验表明该系统能有效地实时应用。文中还给出一系列个例研究的例子。 相似文献
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以中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的最佳路径数据集为依据,对2016年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋(TC)定位精度及路径、强度和登陆点预报精度进行了评定,结果表明:2016年定位总平均误差24.9 km,比2015年略偏大。主观和客观路径预报误差没有延续之前持续减小的趋势,整体预报能力比前两年略有降低。ECMWF EPS、NCEP GEFS和UKMO EPS三个集合预报系统的台风路径预报整体性能要好于其他集合预报系统。各主客观预报方法的台风强度预报性能与往年相比没有大的改进。主观方法对超强台风莎莉嘉在海南万宁的24 h登陆点预报误差均非常小,误差在15 km以下。全球模式的登陆点预报性能表现要优于区域模式。 相似文献
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对多时刻环境因子与热带气旋路径相关的统计分析表明,初始时刻环境场因子对热带气旋路径的预报能力随预报时效的增长而下降;未来时刻环境因子的预报能力高于初始时刻环境场因子;对于一定预报时效的热带气旋路径,具有较高预报能力环境场因子出现时刻大多不与预报时效同时刻;对于48 ̄120小时的预报时效,初始时刻后48-72小时的环境场因子具有较高的预报能力。对NWP产品进行统计释用的热带气旋路径预报模式优于用初如 相似文献
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钟元 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(2):208-214
As shown in a statistical analysis of the relationship between environmental fields at varied timeand tropical cyclone motion, the forecasting ability of the initisl environmental field predictors for tropical cyclone motion decreases with the increase of valid time period of forecast;it is higher with these predictors at a fUture time than at an initial time. The work also indicates that for the tropical cyclone motion over a given period of valid forecast, better predictors appear at times mostly differing from thevalid periods; for periods at 48-120 h the environmental predictors at 48-72 h are more capable of forecasting. With statistical interpretation of NWP products, a predictive model for tropical cyclone motionis superior in performance over a statistical forecasting model that employes predictors of the initial field in the basic framework. The concluding remarks can be used as reference in the construction of an objective prediction model for tropical cyclone motion. 相似文献
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采用FNL再分析资料和美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)资料,运用中尺度WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,分别使用增长模繁殖法(Breeding of Growing Mode,BGM)和集合卡尔曼变换方法(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter,ETKF),对1209号台风"苏拉"进行了台风路径的集合预报试验,并对预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明:采用BGM或ETKF初始扰动的集合预报系统,集合平均预报对风场、温度场、位势高度场的预报效果均优于控制预报;ETKF方法的预报改进程度较BGM方法更大,且对风场和温度场预报技巧的优势尤为明显。BGM方法所得到的集合成员离散度小于ETKF方法,对大气真实状态的表征能力不及后者;两种扰动方法的集合平均都明显改善了台风"苏拉"的路径预报结果,尤其是控制预报在福建沿海第二次登陆后移速过快的问题,但对台风登陆位置预报的改进不明显;此外,采用ETKF方法的集合平均对台风"苏拉"路径预报的改进效果远优于采用BGM方法的集合平均预报。 相似文献
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给出了一个嵌套于欧洲中期天气预报中心全球谱模式中的套网格模式,用于预报热带气旋路径趋势,提出了一种以欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的时距为24小时的预报场为基础的“接力预报”方法;设计了五种不同的“接力预报”方案;并对8507号和8509号两个热带气旋就各种不同预报方案进行了数值预报试验。结果表明,本模式对热带气旋路径趋势具有较强的预报能力,对疑难路径也具有一定的预报能力,为开展热带气旋的路径趋势预报提供了一个新的途径。文中还对影响热带气旋路径趋势的一些主要因子结合各预报结果进行了分析,为模式尽早投入业务提供了一定的依据。 相似文献
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基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化的热带气旋路径集合预报研究 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
构建了一个基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化的热带气旋集合预报系统,通过积云参数化方案和边界层参数化方案的9个不同组合,采用MM5模式进行了不同时间的短时预报。对预报结果使用“镜像法”得到18个初始成员,为同化提供初始背景集合。将人造台风作为观测场,同化后的结果作为集合预报的初值,通过不同参数组合的MM5模式进行集合预报。对2003~2004年16个台风个例的分析表明,初始成员产生方法能够对热带气旋的要素场、中心强度和位置进行合理扰动。同化结果使台风强度得到加强,结构更接近实际。基于同化的集合路径预报结果要优于未同化的集合预报。使用“镜像法”增加集合成员提高了预报准确度,路径预报误差在48小时和72小时分别低于200 km和250 km。 相似文献
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Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction: The generation and assimilation of high-density, satellite-derived data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. F. Le Marshall L. M. Leslie R. F. Abbey Jr. L. Qi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,80(1-4):43-57
Summary The impact of recent scientific and technological advances in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure modeling is
discussed. Since the early 1990s, developments have occurred in remote sensing, data assimilation procedures, numerical models
and high performance computing. In particular, there is now quasi-continuous high spatial and temporal resolution data coverage
over the previously data-sparse oceans where tropical cyclones spend most of their life cycles. There has been a rapid development
of data assimilation methodologies capable of using these data to initialize high-resolution prediction models. Model developments
have reached a stage of maturity where the representation of many of the physical processes necessary for improved tropical
cyclone track and intensity prediction are now included. Finally, available computer power has reached the teraflop range.
Most operational centers have high performance computers capable of tropical cyclone modeling at resolutions necessary for
skillful track and intensity simulations.
This article focuses on combining all of the above developments in a tropical cyclone data analysis and prediction system.
The system has produced statistically significant reductions in the mean forecast error statistics for tropical cyclone track
predictions and resulted in far more realistic simulations of tropical cyclone intensity and structure. A large number of
tropical cyclones have been modeled, with emphasis on those classified as being “difficult” storms to predict accurately.
These difficult storms are most responsible for rapidly growing forecast errors. Our results are illustrated by case studies
of such tropical cyclones.
Received October 9, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
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钟元 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1999,5(1):67-75
Statistical study is first performed of the efficiency of the technique of statistical interpretation using the products of NWP. The result shows that the application of the technique has improved the predictabilily of predictors in objective forecasting of tropical cyclone motion, increased the forecasting skill of models and extended the valid period of forecast. Then a discussion is made of some technical problems in the application in the motion forecasting, suggesting: a large sample of data and perfect forecast method be employed in constructing objective forecast models for tropical cyclone motion, predictors be included that are so finely built that they reflect all synoptic features and physical quantity fields and NWP products be used and corrected that are available at multiple times. It is one of the effective ways to improve the skill and stability of the forecast by composite use of outcomes from various forecasting models. 相似文献
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Summary From 1994 to 2003, fifty-five tropical cyclones entered the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) Response Zone, or about 42% of
all named Atlantic tropical cyclones in this ten-year period, and 2003 was the fourth consecutive year for a tropical cyclone
to make landfall in Canada. The CHC forecasts all tropical cyclones that enter the CHC Response Zone and assumes the lead
in forecasting once the cyclone enters its area of forecast responsibility. This study acknowledges the challenges of forecasting
such tropical cyclones at extratropical latitudes. If a tropical cyclone has been declared extratropical, global models may
no longer use vortex bogussing to carry the cyclone, and even if it is modeled, large model errors often result. The purpose
of this study is to develop a new version of the Florida State University (FSU) hurricane superensemble with greater skill
in tracking tropical cyclones, especially at extratropical latitudes. This has been achieved from the development of the synthetic
superensemble, which is similar to the operational version of the multi-model superensemble that is used at FSU. The synthetic
superensemble differs in that is has a larger set of member models consisting of regular member models, synthetic versions
of these models, and the operational superensemble and its synthetic version. This synthetic superensemble is being used here
to forecast hurricane tracks from the 2001, 2002, and 2003 hurricane seasons. The track forecasts from this method have generally
less error than those of the member models, the operational superensemble, and the ensemble mean. This study shows that the
synthetic superensemble performs consistently well and would be an asset to operational hurricane track forecasting. 相似文献