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应用WebGIS技术建立城市抗震防灾信息系统是提高城市综合防灾能力的有效途径。阐述了城市抗震防灾信息系统的组成部分及其功能,介绍了该系统地理数据库的建立,分析了地震危险性分析、震害预测、经济损失与人员伤亡预测及应急反应等系统专业模型。 相似文献
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Disruption index,DI: an approach for assessing seismic risk in urban systems (theoretical aspects) 总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0
M. A. Ferreira F. Mota de Sá C. S. Oliveira 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(4):1431-1458
Urban systems are characterized by very complex interactions. After an earthquake, a wide variety of services, networks and urban facilities may be unavailable to the public during the system failure and recovery processes, thereby causing disruptions in the basic social needs of the affected area. After a disaster, communities face several challenges. For example, the lack of education may impose population migrations, or malfunctions in the electricity distribution system can produce electrical power outages of varying duration with respect to time and space, which generates consequences in the water distribution system, transportation, communications, etc. A methodology called the Disruption index (DI), based on graph theory, includes these multiple interdependencies. It has been developed to estimate the dysfunction of some fundamental dimensions of urban systems on a broad level, starting with the physical damages directly suffered by the exposed assets, proceeding to the impacts that each node has on the functional performance of the nodes depending on them, until reaching the top node. This paper presents the fundamental theory to support the DI concept. The DI provides the likely impacts and consequences of an earthquake in an urban area to fulfill hazard mitigation and provide civil protection agencies and local and state governments with a new decision-making instrument to reduce or prevent severe and recurrent impacts. The DI concept can also be extended to other natural and man-made disasters and may be used as a tool for optimizing the resources of the system components. 相似文献
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SEISMO-GEOLOGICAL SIGNATURES FOR IDENTIFYING M≥7.0 EARTHQUAKE RISK AREAS AND THEIR PREMILIMARY APPLICATION IN MAINLAND CHINA 
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下载免费PDF全文 High-magnitude earthquake refers to an earthquake that can produce obvious surface ruptures along its seismogenic fault and its magnitude M is at least equal to 7.0. Prediction and identification of locations, where the high-magnitude earthquakes will occur in potential, is one of the scientific goals of the studies on long-term faulting behavior of active faults and paleo-earthquakes, and is also the key problem of earthquake prediction and forecast. The study of the geological and seismological signatures for identifying M≥7.0 earthquake risk areas and their application is an important part of seismic prediction researches. It can not only promote the development of earthquake science, especially the progress of earthquake monitoring and forecasting, but also be positive for earthquake disaster prevention and effective mitigation of possible earthquake disaster losses. It is also one of the earthquake science problems which the governments, societies and the scientific communities are very concerned about and need to be addressed.
Large or great earthquakes, such as the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake(M8.0), the 2010 Yushu earthquake(M7.1), the 2013 Lushan earthquake(M7.0)and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake(MW7.8), have unceasingly struck the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas, which have been attracting attention of a large number of geoscientists both at home and abroad. Owing to good coverage of the seismic networks and GPS sations, a lot of high-quality publications in seismicity, crustal velocity structure, faulting beihavior have been pressed, which gives us a good chance to summarize some common features of these earthquakes. In this paper, seismogenic structural model of these earthquakes, faulting behavior of seismogenic faults, crustal mechanical property, recent straining environment and pre-earthquake seismicity are first analyzed, and then, five kinds of common features for the sismogenic faults where those earthquakes occurred. Those five kinds of commom features are, in fact, the geological and seismological signatures for identifying M≥7.0 earthquake risk areas. The reliability of the obtained sigatures is also discussed in brief. At last, based on the results of 1:50000 active fault mapping, and published seismic tomography and fault-locking studies, an experimental identification of the risk areas for the future large/great earthquakes in the North China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is conducted to test the scientificity and applicability of these obtained sigantures. 相似文献
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INVESTIGATION OF STATUS AND DEMAND ON PUBLIC SERVICE OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION IN CHINA 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In order to make a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the status and demands of public service of earthquake disaster mitigation, we launched an investigation with Social Opinion Polling Center of National Bureau of Statistics on the current situation of public service of earthquake disaster mitigation and the demands for it in 2018. The investigation was conducted for 18~75-year-old residents for both urban and rural areas in 31 provinces of China mainland using the Computer Assisted Telephone Interview(CATI)method and 20 078 valid samples were received in total. The questionnaire mainly includes two parts: the current situation assessment and the demand survey. The assessment of public service status consists of five indicators: earthquake emergency drill, knowledge publicity of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, acquisition of earthquake information, reliability of information released by earthquake agencies, and overall satisfaction. The results indicate that only 27.4% of public have participated the earthquake emergency drill, and 73.5% of public have learned some knowledge about earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in different level. It shows that rural residents have a lower level of scientific knowledge of earthquake disaster mitigation although the rural residents have a higher level of satisfaction. Meanwhile, 82.9% of the public are very concerned about earthquake-related information, and the earthquake information acquisition convenience score is 81.51 points(the full score is 100 points). At present, TV is still the most popular way to obtain the earthquake-related information, besides that, network and the new media app such as Wechat and Weibo play a more and more important role. In terms of the reliability of official information published by the earthquake administration, the score is 83.69 points which indicates that the public tend to believe in official departments. Furthermore, the degree of satisfaction evaluation of public service of earthquake disaster mitigation is marked 76.44 points which shows that there is still much room for improvement. The more educated the public, the less satisfied they are with the public service of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. The results also show that 51.81% of the public are willing to obtain earthquake warning information at their own expense. As for the demand, the most expectative services for the public are post-earthquake rescue and reconstruction, earthquake warning, and house earthquake resilience test. The results of the investigation may provide some reference for the government to provide better services of earthquake disaster mitigation and to make scientific knowledge popularization in a more scientific way. 相似文献
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利用GIS进行地震滑坡分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地震滑坡是由地震引发的一种十分严重的震害，它对人类生命财产所造成的损失是巨大的。地震滑坡事件是一个复杂的过程．影响因素多种多样，滑坡的形成机制十分复杂。为正确认识地震滑坡，以1920年宁夏海原大地震为例，利用GIS强大的空间分析功能，多角度、多层次地对地震滑坡的形成、发生、发展机制进行了研究。指出了用GIS技术研究地震烈度等对地震滑坡的影响作用、合理评价和预测某一地区地震滑坡发生的可能性。 相似文献
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地震灾害可接受风险水平反映了社会对地震灾害的风险认知。本文基于1991年～2020年中国大陆地区MS≥5.0地震灾害数据,分析地震灾害的时空分布特征,并在此基础上应用F－N曲线法构建不同震级的地震灾害生命损失概率分布函数,进而绘制出灾害可接受风险曲线,以此确定出地震灾害生命可接受风险标准。研究结果表明:中国大陆地区MS≥5.0地震活动、灾害次数、成灾率和致人员死亡的成灾率分别在2008年、2003年、2011年和1996年表现出高值,在空间上MS≥5.0地震和地震灾害集中分布在西部地区。MS5.0～MS5.9、MS6.0～MS6.9和MS≥5.0地震灾害致1人死亡概率分别超过6.19×10－6/a、1.37×10－5/a和1.62×10－5/a为不可接受风险,MS≥7.0地震灾害致4人死亡的累计概率超过1.96×10－5/a为不可接受风险,而MS5.0～MS5.9、MS6.0～MS6.9、MS≥7.0和MS≥5.0地震灾害导致死亡人数分别超过8人、44人、2417人和2468人的年死亡概率为任意值均是不可接受的。该研究结果可以为我国地震灾害风险评估与管理、灾害保险费率的厘定以及灾害教育的开展提供一定的理论和实践依据。 相似文献
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China is the country with the challenge of severe earthquake disaster. In order to mitigate the disaster and save lives, emergency response and rescue work after an earthquake are deployed and led by the Chinese governments at all level, the effectiveness of which has been proved. In such work, how to quickly evaluate the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is a crucial issue at the early period after the earthquake. It is the foundation to estimate the disaster losses and decide the scale of rescue teams and materials. However, at the early period only a few physical parameters of the earthquake can be acquired and some of them may even be inaccurate.
An evaluation model of seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is investigated and presented by statistic method in this study. After an earthquake there are four authoritative parameters officially released by China Earthquake Administration generally within ten minutes:earthquake magnitude (MS), focal depth, latitude and longitude position, and the occurrence time. They are good candidate input parameters of the evaluation model. We collect the information of 215 historical earthquake occurring in China from 1966 to 2013, including:The four parameters and the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area. Through statistical analysis we find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area has high correlation with the earthquake magnitude (MS) and the focal depth and then select them as the formal input parameters. After further investigation a generalized linear model is built to fit the relationship between the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area, earthquake magnitude (MS) and the focal depth.
The effectiveness of the model is validated by the Sig value and F value from theoretic perspective. The validation also includes the application of the model in real earthquakes occurring from 2014 to 2017. After the earthquakes, the seismic intensities in meizoseismal area have been quickly estimated and used in the command of national earthquake disaster emergency relief. The applications in real earthquakes get good results.
Finally, the robustness of the model is analyzed. We respectively verify the influences of the earthquake magnitude (MS) and the focal depth and find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is more sensitive to the earthquake magnitude. Under the condition of the same focal depth, when the change of the earthquake magnitude is up to 0.5, the change of the seismic intensity will reach to 1. However, in order to cause same change of the seismic intensity, the difference of the focal depth will be 10 kilometers. Basically, these changes derived from the model meet the situation of historical earthquakes. 相似文献
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本文概述了我国高分辨率遥感技术在地震监测预报、灾害预防和应急救援防震减灾三大业务体系中的应用现状,重点介绍了“高分遥感地震监测与应急应用示范”项目的进展.该项目针对防震减灾业务体系发展的应用需求,在整合地震行业现有技术和资源的基础上,突破了高分辨率对地观测系统卫星遥感数据在地震构造调查、地震监测和地震应急救援等方面应用的关键技术,制定行业应用规范,建设高分遥感地震业务应用示范系统,并开展应用示范.该项目的成功实施,使得我国高分辨率遥感技术在地震中的应用从以往分散的科学研究提升到一个业务化应用的状态,从而能更加有效地服务于防震减灾工作. 相似文献
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资本资产定价模型在工程地震保险费率厘定中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
作为国际金融市场的重要组成部分,保险市场在当下的全球经济复苏中发挥着重要作用。保险是地震灾害危机处理的一种重要方式。现有的工程地震保费厘定通常只着力于纯保费,对风险附加费的考量往往依经验,从而导致保费中无法体现对风险的补偿,成为工程地震险发展的瓶颈。本文通过将金融市场中的资本资产定价模型（CAPM）引入工程地震险的定价分析,从资本市场的角度探讨该模型在工程地震险定价中的应用,弥补了传统工程地震险保费厘定方法的固有缺陷,使得保费计算更为科学合理。最后,应用于一具体工程实例,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。 相似文献
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为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节，减轻地震灾害风险，以贵州省罗甸县为示范，采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析，开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查，通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式，首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系，评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度，计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数，确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区，并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点，从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。 相似文献
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基于粤港澳大湾区地震灾害风险评估的初步成果,分析了湾区城市群地震环境、承灾体分布和场地特点,提出了两种确定地震输入的设定地震原则,即潜在震源区设定地震原则和最大风险设定地震原则,按照这两种原则可以更加准确地进行城市群地震灾害风险评估。在前人工作的基础上,提出了考虑场地条件影响的地震灾害风险表达式,探索了适合三维模拟非一致激励地震动输入的建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估方法,提出了建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估中考虑场地影响的思路,为客观地评估城市群地震灾害和损失风险提出了可参考的建议。 相似文献
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本文提出了一种城市给水管道综合防灾规划的决策方法,该方法利用综合灾害指标的计算来获得综合防灾规划的决策依据。在综合灾害指标的计算过程中,采用层次分析法,得到了10种灾害最终的评价权重;以地震地质灾害影响因素识别和地震地质灾害风险指标的计算为例,给出了潜在灾害的风险指标计算。最后以综合灾害指标为重要衡量标准,结合给水管道功能上的布局要求和系统的整体性要求,在烟台市开发区给水管道综合防灾规划中进行了实际应用,完成了给水管道的综合防灾规划。本文以期为我国其他城市的生命线工程综合防灾规划的编制提供借鉴。 相似文献