共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
P. J. Ward M. A. Marfai F. Yulianto D. R. Hizbaron J. C. J. H. Aerts 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(3):899-916
Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors
to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised
that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point,
since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future
coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed
assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and
1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these
events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly
due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario
for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above
which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical
user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need
for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases
in damage exposure. 相似文献
2.
Mohammad Karamouz Ali Razmi Sara Nazif Zahra Zahmatkesh 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(11):395
Due to increasing flood severities and frequencies, studies on coastal vulnerability assessment are of increasing concern. Evaluation of flood inundation depth and extent is the first issue in flood vulnerability analysis. This study has proposed a practical framework for reliable coastal floodplain delineation considering both inland and coastal flooding. New York City (NYC) has been considered as the case study because of its vulnerability to storm surge-induced hazards. For floodplain delineation, a distributed hydrologic model is used. In the proposed method, the severities of combined inland and coastal floods for different recurrence intervals are determined. Through analyzing past storms in the study region, a referenced (base) configuration of rainfall and storm surge is selected to be used for defining flood scenarios with different return periods. The inundated areas are determined under different flooding scenarios. The inundation maps of 2012 superstorm Sandy in NYC is simulated and compared with the FEMA revised maps which shows a close agreement. This methodology could be of significant value to the planners and engineers working on the preparedness of coastal urban communities against storms by providing a platform for updating inundation maps as new events are observed and new information becomes available. 相似文献
3.
Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns
of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure
to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise.
The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics
commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios
are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane
storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region.
In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge
flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal
and near-coastal zones. 相似文献
4.
Assessment of climate change impacts on flooding vulnerability for lowland management in southwestern Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Taiwan suffers from losses of economic property and human lives caused by flooding almost every year. Flooding is an inevitable, reoccurring, and the most damaging disaster in Taiwan since Taiwan is located in the most active tropic cyclone formation region of the Western Pacific. Flooding problem is further worse in land subsidence areas along southwestern coast of Taiwan due to groundwater overdraft. Increasing number of people is threatened with floods owing to climate change since it would induce sea level rise and intensify extreme rainfall. Assessments of flooding vulnerability depend not only on flooding severity, possible damage of assets exposed to floods should also be simultaneously considered. This paper aims at exploring how climate change might impact the flooding vulnerability of lowland areas in Taiwan. A flooding vulnerability evaluation scheme is proposed in this study which incorporates flooding severity (the maximum inundation depth determined by a two-dimensional model) and potential economic losses for various land uses. Effects of climate change on flooding vulnerability focus on alterations of rainfall depth for various recurrence intervals. The flood-prone Yunlin coastal area, located in southwestern Taiwan, is chosen to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results reveal that reducing flooding vulnerability can be achieved by either reducing flooding severity (implementation of flood-mitigation measures) or decreasing assets exposed to floods (suspension of land uses for flood-detention purpose). Performance of currently implemented flood-mitigation measures is insufficient to reduce flooding vulnerability when facing with climate change. However, the scenario suggested in this study to sustain room for floods efficiently reduces flooding vulnerability in both without- and with climate change situations. The suggestions provided in this study could support decision processes and help easing flooding problems of lowland management in Taiwan under climate change. 相似文献
5.
Although the elderly are commonly thought to be disproportionately vulnerable to natural hazards, the elderly populations of coastal communities are continuing to grow. Because there is little to no empirical hazards work specifically addressing the vulnerable elderly in coastal communities, this paper uses Sarasota County, Florida, as a case study to analyze how vulnerable the elderly are to hurricane hazards and whether all elderly people are equally vulnerable. To explore the spatial variations in degree and composition of vulnerability among this population, the analysis maps physical exposure to hurricane storm-surge inundation and precipitation-induced flooding and creates social vulnerability indices by applying principal components analysis to census block group data in a geographic information system. The results show that elderly inhabitants of barrier islands face a considerable physical threat from hurricane-induced storm surge and flooding but are less socially vulnerable because of their wealth; the elderly living inland are far less physically vulnerable but are poorer and consequently demonstrate high socioeconomic sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity to these hurricane hazards. The paper concludes that the elderly are not equally vulnerable: there are many different types of elderly living in many different locations, and their vulnerability varies by type and over space. Effective vulnerability reduction measures should account for these differences between the elderly populations. 相似文献
6.
The 4th IPCC report highlights the increased vulnerability of the coastal areas from floods due to sea-level rise (SLR).
The existing coastal flood control structures in Bangladesh are not adequate to adapt these changes and new measures are urgently
necessary. It is important to determine the impacts of SLR on flooding to analyse the performance of the existing structures
and corresponding impact to plan for suitable adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of floods on coastal
zone. The study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the possible effects of SLR on floods in the coastal zone
of Bangladesh. A hydrodynamic model, which is a combination of surface and river parts, was utilized for flood simulation.
The tool was applied under a range of future scenarios, and results indicate both spatial variability of risk and changes
in flood characteristics between now and under SLR. Estimated impact on population, infrastructure and transportation is also
exposed. These types of impact estimation would be of value to flood plain management authorities to minimize the socio-economic
impact. 相似文献
7.
Han Song Tang Steven I-Jy Chien Marouane Temimi Cheryl Ann Blain Qu Ke Liuhui Zhao Simon Kraatz 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):141-163
Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey. 相似文献
8.
A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system??s components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies. 相似文献
9.
The objective of the present study is to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges at the household level in existing and changing status of households. The primary data were collected from a cyclone prone coastal area in Bangladesh, through structured questionnaire and GPS survey, key informants interviews and field observations. In order to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors geographical information systems based Structured Query Language (SQL) query has been used. The study simulated the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges on the basis of collected data through pre-designed SQL query. The study found the number of most vulnerable households under existing conditions and how much it will be afterward of a favourable or adverse change of the factors of vulnerability associated with households. The major findings of the study unveil that the socioeconomic and physical factors of human vulnerability have important function to determine the household’s level of vulnerability to the cyclone induced disaster. It has been demonstrated that the degree of vulnerability of households is changed with its physical and socioeconomic status. This study provides a conceptual model for assessing and simulating vulnerability to other natural hazards like floods, droughts, riverbank erosions and so forth. This study highlights that the households’ intrinsic vulnerable conditions are responsible for its defencelessness to the hazards and the reduction of vulnerability is the first measure of integrated and sustainable disaster management in the coastal Bangladesh. 相似文献
10.
Lopes Namir Domingos Raimundo Li Tianxin Matomela Nametso Sá Rui Moutinho 《Natural Hazards》2022,114(1):989-1013
Natural Hazards - Guinea-Bissau's coasts are considered highly vulnerable to coastal hazards, and this vulnerability is expected to increase under future climate change scenarios. Multi-hazards... 相似文献
11.
An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems.
A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis
and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks
with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with
a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence
breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom
has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and
appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures. 相似文献
12.
A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The glacier-covered Nevado del Tolima in the Colombian Cordillera Central is an active volcano with potential lahars that might be more hazardous than those on Nevado del Ruiz. Furthermore, rainfall-triggered floods and landslides notoriously and severely affect the region. For effective disaster prevention, a risk analysis is of primary importance. We present here a risk analysis methodology that is based on the assessment of lahar and rainfall-related flood hazard scenarios and different aspects of vulnerability. The methodology is applied for populated centres in the Combeima valley and the regional capital Ibagué (~500,000 inhabitants). Lahar scenarios of 0.5, 1, 5, and 15?million m3 volume are based on melting of 1, 2, 10, and 25?% of ice, firn and snow, respectively, due to volcanic activity and subsequent lahar formation. For flood modelling, design floods with a return period of 10 and 100?years were calculated. Vulnerability is assessed considering physical vulnerability, operationalized by market values of dwelling parcels and population density, whereas social vulnerability is expressed by the age structure of the population and poverty. Standardization of hazard and vulnerability allows for the integration into a risk equation, resulting in five-level risk maps, with additional quantitative estimate of damage. The probability of occurrence of lahars is low, but impacts would be disastrous, with about 20,000 people and more directly exposed to it. Floods are much more recurrent, but affected areas are generally smaller. High-risk zones in Ibagué are found in urban areas close to the main river with high social vulnerability. The methodology has proven to be a suitable tool to provide a first overview of spatial distribution of risk which is considered by local and regional authorities for disaster risk reduction. The harmonization of technical-engineering risk analysis and approaches from social sciences into common reference concepts should be further developed. 相似文献
13.
Examining the relationship between wetland alteration and watershed flooding in Texas and Florida 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Samuel D. Brody Wesley E. Highfield Hyung-Cheal Ryu Laura Spanel-Weber 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):413-428
Inland flooding remains one of the greatest threats to the safety of human population in the United States (US). While few
large-scale studies exist, the potential role of naturally occurring wetlands in mitigating flood duration and intensity has
been widely discussed. This study examines the relationship between wetland alteration and coastal watershed flooding in Texas
and Florida over a 12-year period. Specifically, we geo-reference wetland alteration permits required under Section 404 of
the US Clean Water Act and correlate the number of granted permits with the degree of flooding measured by stream gauge data.
Results indicate that specific types of federal permits exacerbate flooding events in coastal watersheds while controlling
for various environmental and socioeconomic characteristics. 相似文献
14.
Sea-level rise is anticipated to alter hydrologic and salinity regimes of coastal wetlands. We conducted a mesocosm experiment
to determine species-level responses to 12 sea-level rise scenarios. Both hydrologic regime (−10, +5, and +20 cm flooding
depth) and salinity level (fresh, 2‰, 4‰ and 6‰) were interactively manipulated. Within these various sea-level rise scenarios,
we sought to determine the effects of hydrologic regime, salinity level, and the interaction of these two stresses on the
productivity ofPanicum hemitomon, Sagittaria lancifolia, andSpartina patens, which are dominant macrophytes of fresh, intermediate, and brackish marsh types, respectively, in coastal Louisiana and
the southeastern coastal plain. We found that altered hydrologic regimes and increased salinity levels differentially affected
edaphic conditions and species-level productivity. Increases in flooding depth were most detrimental toS. patens. Salinity levels greater than 4‰ resulted in mortality ofP. hemitomon, and salinity levels of 6‰ resulted in reduced growth and eventual death, ofS. lancifolia. The effects of elevated salinity levels onP. hemitomon andS. lancifolia were exacerbated when coupled with increased flooding levels. Although soil organic matter was shown to increase in all vegetative
conditions, increases were dependent upon the productivity of the species under the different hydrologic regimes and salinity
levels withP. hemitomon displaying tremendous potential to increase soil organic matter under fresh conditions, especially when coupled with moderate
flooding. The results of this study indicate that as plant communities are subjected to long-term changes in hydrology and
salinity levels, community productivity and sustainability ulimately will be determined by species-level tolerances in conjunction
with species interactions. 相似文献
15.
Yang Xiao-Hua Sun Bo-Yang Zhang Jian Li Mei-Shui He Jun Wei Yi-Ming Li Yu-Qi 《Natural Hazards》2015,76(1):63-81
Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.
相似文献16.
Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Frolova N. I. Larionov V. I. Bonnin J. Sushchev S. P. Ugarov A. N. Kozlov M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):63-76
Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing. 相似文献
17.
Paul William Kojo Yankson Alex Barimah Owusu George Owusu John Boakye-Danquah Jacob Doku Tetteh 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(2):661-689
Coastal towns along the coast of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding and sea level rise. Yet, because coastal conditions in many parts of the region are poorly understood, knowledge on which population groups are at the most risk is less known, particularly in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana, where the capital city Accra is located. Without adequate information about the risk levels and why, the implementation of locally appropriate adaptation plans may be less effective. This study enriches our understanding of the levels of flood risks along the coast of GAMA and contributes knowledge to improve understanding of place-specific adaptation plans. The study uses data from a 300-household survey, stakeholder meetings, and interviews with local community leaders to construct an integrated vulnerability index. The index includes seven components made up of: dwelling type; house and house environment; household socioeconomic characteristics; experience and perception of flood risk; household and community flood adaptation strategies; house location, and physical characteristics. Our findings show that exposure to floods, particularly from local flash floods is relatively high in all communities. However, significant differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the communities were observed due to differences in location, socioeconomic characteristics, and perception of risks to flooding and sea level rise. The complexity of factors involved in the determination of local-level vulnerability requires that the implementation of adaptation strategies needs to involve cross-sectorial partnerships, involving local communities, in building a comprehensive multi-risk adaptation strategy. 相似文献
18.
Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Tsunamis generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes pose significant threats to coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific
Northwest. Impacts of future tsunamis to individuals and communities will likely vary due to pre-event socioeconomic and demographic
differences. In order to assess social vulnerability to Cascadia tsunamis, we adjust a social vulnerability index based on
principal component analysis first developed by Cutter et al. (2003) to operate at the census-block level of geography and focus on community-level comparisons along the Oregon coast. The number
of residents from blocks in tsunami-prone areas considered to have higher social vulnerability varies considerably among 26
Oregon cities and most are concentrated in four cities and two unincorporated areas. Variations in the number of residents
from census blocks considered to have higher social vulnerability in each city do not strongly correlate with the number of
residents or city assets in tsunami-prone areas. Methods presented here will help emergency managers to identify community
sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to develop risk-reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions. 相似文献
19.
We investigate the use of social capital in the form of social ties in the face of commercialization, urbanization and climate change. While discussions of social capital often focus on whether people possess certain social ties or not our study shows that it is also necessary to consider under what circumstances people can make use of their ties. The use of different kinds of ties varies with context and is not as clear cut as suggested in the literature. For example families closer to the city are in a better position to take advantage of new opportunities. Using a combination of ties people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems unsustainable in the long run. Thus, decreased vulnerability at the household level may come at the price of increased vulnerability at higher levels and negative consequences for the wider social–ecological system. Evaluating vulnerability and the role of social ties depends on the unit and sector of analysis, and the temporal and spatial scale. 相似文献
20.
Vulnerability from storm surges and cyclone wind fields on the coast of Andhra Pradesh,India 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The results presented here are from a study conducted for the government of the state of Andhra Pradesh (GOAP) in India, as
part of a World Bank project on cyclone mitigation. A set of detailed maps were prepared depicting the Physical Vulnerability
(PV), specifically storm surge inundation zones are shown for frequent occurrence, 50-year return period, likely scenario
for global warming and extreme global warming. Similarly vulnerable areas from strong wind field from tropical cyclones (TCS)
are also presented for the same four parameters. Vulnerability zones are presented from a social point of view also based
upon certain socio-economic parameters that were included in determining the overall vulnerability of each Mandal in a coastal
district (a Mandal represents a group of villages and towns) include: population, senior citizens, women, children under different
age groups, type of housing, income level, cyclone shelters, hospitals and medical centres, schools and caste based population.
The study is about scenarios that could happen if global warming and the predicted intensification of TCS actually occur as
predicted by some numerical models. 相似文献