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1.
由昆仑山口西8.1级地震分析中国大陆1~3年地震大形势   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
在昆仑山口西8.1级地震震前分析基础上,对该次地震对中国大陆地震活动趋势的影响进行了分析,认为这次地震是20世纪以来第五活跃幕闭幕阶段的最大地震,据震前3年地震活动类比等推测,未来3年内中国大陆西部仍可能发生7级以上地震,东部地区可能发生少量6级地震。  相似文献   

2.
本世纪以来,中国大陆内部发生了3次7级以上地震,分别是2001年11月昆仑山口西8.1级、2008年3月于田7.3级和2008年5月汶川8.0级,尤其是汶川8级大震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和经济及财产损失.就这3次地震所处区域的地震监测能力而言,汶川地区的监测能力要好,但在震前也未能捕获到能够做出中短临预报的前兆异常.  相似文献   

3.
石绍先  曹刻 《高原地震》2002,14(1):32-40
分析研究了2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级巨震对欧亚地震带、中国大陆及云南未来地震趋势的影响,指出巨震后10-20年欧亚带可能处于巨震活跃时段,其间可能发生多次巨震;同期中国大陆相应处于地震活跃期,大陆西部有发生多次7.0级以上大震的可能;受欧亚带大震活动过程及巨震调整影响,未来1-3年云南省可能进入新的活跃期,6-7级强震危险性增加。  相似文献   

4.
汶川8.0级地震前地震趋势分析意见的回顾   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
刘杰  郭铁栓  杨立明  苏有锦  李刚 《地震》2009,29(1):40-52
该文在系统整理自2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震到汶川8.0级地震前年度地震趋势预测中提出的地震活动异常和分析意见的基础上, 研究汶川地震未能做出中长期预测的原因。 结果表明: 2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震发生后, 判定中国大陆处于强震连发阶段, 仍有发生8级大震危险, 但此后的2002—2007年中国大陆周边接连发生大震, 而内部连续6年的7级地震平静, 以及中国大陆5、 6级地震相继出现的显著平静, 是导致2006年以后对中国大陆地震活动水平预测明显偏低的原因。 南北地震带中段一直是作为近几年可能发生强震的危险地区, 但2007年云南宁洱6.4级地震后, 对西南地区强震危险的紧迫性估计不足。 而汶川地震所在的龙门山地震带历史上没有7级以上地震记录, 也是该地震带未作为近几年地震重点危险区的原因之一。  相似文献   

5.
2001年昆仑山口8.1级巨震后中国大陆、云南地震趋势研究   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2  
石绍先  曹刻 《地震研究》2002,25(3):220-226
分析研究了2001年11月14日昆仑山口8.1级巨震对中国大陆云南未来几年地震趋势的影响,指出巨震后6年大陆可能仍然处于地震活跃期,其间大陆西部发生7.0级以上大震可能性较大;受2000-2001年欧亚带东南段大震活动过程及巨震调整影响,未来1-3年云南省可能进入新的活跃期,6.5级以上强震危险性增加。  相似文献   

6.
2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊Mw9.3特大地震的发生,对全球气候和地震趋势都将产生重大影响.本文讨论了2004年印尼苏门答腊Mw9.3特大地震、2005南亚克什米尔M7.8大震以及2001年中国昆仑山M8.1大震之间的相互关系.同时指出,2006~2007年中国大陆西部地区有可能发生7级左右强震.  相似文献   

7.
文章以20世纪60年代以来中国大陆发生的4次MS≥7.8大震,即1970年云南通海7.8级、1976年河北唐山7.8级、2001年青海昆仑山口西8.1级和2008年四川汶川8.0级地震为研究对象,探讨了8级左右巨大地震的余震活动及分类,并以流变模型讨论了序列类型差异性的物理力学成因。初步给出:①4次大震的余震序列可归为两种类型,即低活动序列类型和高活动序列类型;②余震的差异性特征与主震孕育过程密切相联,理论模型和实际震例资料均给出,余震活动持续时间长短与大震孕震时间长短之间呈正相关变化;③根据对汶川8.0级大震的研究,孕震区介质流变性和构造变形速率的高低可能是造成大地震余震序列差异性特征的重要原因。  相似文献   

8.
本文以中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测实践为基础, 简要总结回顾了利用大地形变进行强震预测研究的工作思路、方法和一些进展; 进而结合2001年昆仑山口西8.1级、 2008年四川汶川8.0级特大地震前区域地壳运动变形背景和已有的研究结果, 分析和探讨了基于大地形变监测、 并考虑地震构造的差异性来进一步提高大震预测的有效性...  相似文献   

9.
李志君 《高原地震》2002,14(2):69-72
论述了昆仑山8.1级大震前,川甘青交界地区一些手段的异常,及对这次地震的预测预报情况。通过这次实践,说明8.1级大震的影响场还是相当宽的。  相似文献   

10.
本文根据多种形变观测结果,研究了近期首都圈地区形变场出现的两次非线性变化过程,发现两次形变过程可能与边界作用力改变所引起的变化有关.分析认为:①两次形变过程均与大尺度形变场变化相关,这可能与大震所引起的边界动力作用改变有一定的关联;②2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级大地震对首都圈形变场具有一定的影响,该地震的发生对首都圈地区应变积累具有一定的释放作用;③2004年出现的断层基线大幅度变化与大尺度形变场变化具有协调一致性特征,与首都圈地区强震前的局部应力场增强有所不同.  相似文献   

11.
The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes in the organic world.  相似文献   

12.
Summary The author mentions the aims of the World-wide gravity project he established in the Ohio State University in Columbus, in 1950. He outlines the practical procedure of the gravimetric computations of the undulationsN and the vertical deflection components and and emphasizes that only by the global international cooperation and additional gravity observations at sea carried out during the last decade it has been possible to gather to Columbus the needed gravity material. Since there exist still large gravimetrically unsurveyed areas it is of vital significance to study what gravity anomalies are best to be used for these regions. The given figures concerning the accuracy of theN, and , estimated theoretically and obtained in practice, indicate that in the gravimetrically well surveyed parts of the world like in Europe and the United States we can get gravimetrically on basis of existing gravity material theN-values with accuracy of about 5–10 meters, and and with the accuracy of about 1. The geoid undulationsN are already computed in Columbus for more than 6000 points of the northern hemisphere. The sample maps show the interesting geoid of Europe and vicinity between the latitudes 60° and 30° and longitude 5° W and 30° E, drafted on basis of more than 1000N-values computed at the corners of 1°×1° squares. It is interesting to realize that the geoid undulations in all this area are positive, the extreme values being between 40 and 50 meters. The geophysical significance of the geoid maps of this kind is pointed out.  相似文献   

13.
Summary The maintenance of the axisymmetric component of the flow in the atmosphere is investigated by means of a steady-state, quasi-geostrophic formulation of the meteorological equations. It is shown that the meridional variations in the time-averaged axisymmetric variables can be expressed as the sum of three contributions, one being due to the eddy heat transport, another to the eddy momentum transport, and a third to the convective-radiative equilibrium temperature which enters the problem through the specification of a Newtonian form of diabatic heating. The contributions by the large scale eddies are evaluated through the use of observed values for the eddy heat and momentum transports.The contributions from each of the three forcing mechanisms to the temperature and zonal wind fields are invstigated individually and found to be of about equal importance. The sum of the three contributions are also presented for the temperature, the zonal wind, the stream function associated with the mean meridional circulation and the corresponding vertical motion. Although the results fail to reproduce the main observed features of the lower stratosphere, they are found to be in good agreement with observations in the middle latitude troposphere. At any pressure level, for example, the computed mean zonal wind has a jet-like profile and the axis of the jet is found to slope to the south with height, as observed in the atmosphere.Based in part on a thesis submitted by the first author as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree at the University of Michigan. — Publication No. 194 from the Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, The University of Michigan.  相似文献   

14.
15.
陈伯舫 《华南地震》2004,24(4):8-10
综合APIA、HONOLULU、PAMATAI 3个地磁台三分量的11年周期变化的形态后,可定性地提出该变化源于内场。如内源为核幔边界的电涡流,则其中心点应位于3台之间。  相似文献   

16.
The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth.  相似文献   

17.
Until recently, the existing data prevented the geophysicists from accurately dating the Bysy-Yuryakh stratum, which outcrops in the middle reach of the Kotuy River, constraining the time of its formation to a wide interval from the end of the Late Cambrian to the beginning of the Silurian. The obtained paleomagnetic data unambiguously correlate the Bysy-Yuryakh stratum to the Nyaian regional stage and constrain its formation, at least a considerable part of it, by the Tremadocian. This result perfectly agrees with the data on the Bysy-Yuryakh conodonts studied in this work and yields a spectacular example of the successful application of paleomagnetic studies in solving important tasks of stratigraphy and, correspondingly, petroleum geology. Within the Bysy-Yuryakh stratum, we revealed a large normal-polarity interval corresponding to the long (>1 Ma) period when the geomagnetic reversals were absent. This result, in combination with the data for the Tremadocian and Middle–Upper Cambrian sequences of the other regions, indicates that (1) the rate of occurrence of the geomagnetic reversals on the eve of the Ordovician Moyero superchron of reversed polarity was at most one reversal per Ma; (2) the superchron does not switch on instantaneously but is preceded by a certain gradual change in the operation conditions of the dynamo mechanism which, inter alia, manifests itself by the reduction of the frequency of geomagnetic reversals with the approach of the superchron. This finding supports the views according to which a process preparing the establishment of the superchrons takes place at the core–mantle boundary.  相似文献   

18.
19.
The global database on the paleointensity, containing determinations of the virtual dipole moment (VDM) for a stable (normal) regime of the geomagnetic field in a time interval of up to 3.5 Ga, is supplemented by new VDM determinations and analyzed. The field generation process started no later than 3–3.5 Ga (earlier data are absent) at the stage of the Earth’s core formation. Since that time, the dipole value has differed from its present value by no more than an order of magnitude, and the deviations that have already been detected tend toward smaller values. The distribution of VDM values in the time interval 0–400 Ma is bimodal, which apparently reflects the presence of two different generation levels of the geomagnetic field distinguished by a relatively large value (close to the present field value) and a relatively small value (approximately half as large as the present value). The total duration of decreased VDM values appreciably exceeds that of increased VDM values (179.1 and 28.6 Myr, respectively). On the whole, data on the paleointensity do not contradict the hypothesis about the dipole nature of the field over the last 400 Myr; however, the number of determinations at high paleolatitudes is too small to draw decisive conclusions on the validity (or invalidity) of the dipole field approximation based solely on paleointensity data.  相似文献   

20.
A special high-resolution routine of the EISCAT radar has been used to investigate the structure and development of the poleward wall of a deep trough in electron density. The feature was tracked by the radar during a 7-hour period under very quiet geomagnetic conditions. The field-aligned nature of the structure enabled an estimate to be made of the inclination of the geomagnetic field above EISCAT that was in good agreement with the current model. Observations of narrow field-aligned enhancements in electron temperature demonstrated that the wall of this trough is a dynamic feature, reforming regularly as the electron density responds on a time scale of tens of minutes to energy input from soft-particle precipitation.  相似文献   

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