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1.
Adaptation to climate change, particularly flood risks, may come to pose large challenges in the future and will require cooperation among a range of stakeholders. However, there presently exists little research especially on the integration of the private sector in adaptation. In particular, recently developed state programs for adaptation have so far been focused on the public sector. Insurance providers may have much to contribute as they offer other parts of society services to appropriately identify, assess and reduce the financial impacts of climate change-induced risks. This study aims to explore how the institutional distribution of responsibility for flood risk is being renegotiated within the UK, Germany and Netherlands. Examining how the insurance industry and the public sector can coordinate their actions to promote climate change adaptation, the study discusses how layered natural hazard insurance systems may result from attempts to deal with increasing risks due to increasing incidences of extreme events and climate change. It illustrates that concerns over the risks from extreme natural events have prompted re-assessments of the current systems, with insurance requiring long-term legislative frameworks that defines the objectives and responsibilities of insurers and the different political authorities. 相似文献
2.
Until recently, research on potential economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on transport infrastructure was scarce, but currently this area is rapidly expanding. Indeed, there is a growing international interest, including the European area, regarding the impacts of extreme weather and climate change on the management of various transportation modes. This paper reviews briefly the present status regarding the knowledge of financial aspects of extreme weather impacts on transportation, using recent research findings from Europe, and proposes some new views in cost-benefit analysis, project appraisal and asset value protection for the management of transport systems under extreme weather risks. Quite often, risk management is understood as a response to truly extreme impacts, but this constitutes a misunderstanding. Some values are more extreme than others, and in the context of extreme weather, some weather phenomena are more extreme in their intensity and resulting impacts. An analysis of the level of costs and risks to societies, as a result of extreme weather, reveals that the risks in different European Union member states deviate substantially from each other. Also, the preparedness of different societies to deal with extreme weather events is quite variable. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which has to be dealt with in project appraisal. Although a fully established procedure does not exist, some fundamental ideas of cost-benefit analysis under extreme weather scenarios are presented in this paper, considering accident costs, time costs and infrastructure-related costs (comprising physical damages to infrastructures and increased maintenance costs). Cost-benefit analysis is usually associated with capital investments, but the original idea of cost-benefit analysis is not restricted to investment appraisal. Therefore, activities such as enhanced maintenance, minor upgrades, adoption of new designs, improved information services and others may be subject to cost-benefit analysis. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which apparently has to be dealt with also in project appraisal. A fully established procedure does not exist, although some basic principles have been introduced in analytical format. There is a lack of models to estimate extreme weather impacts and consequences and how to adapt to those costs. Optimising the efforts in maintenance and new design standards is even further away, but constitutes an overwhelming task. In this respect, new approaches and ways of thinking in preserving asset’s residual value, return periods, sustainability and equity and formal methods supplementing cost-benefit analysis are put forward. The paper concludes with a call for the need for more integrated management of transport systems. In particular, it is recognised that the different stages of transport system planning pose their own challenges when assessing the costs and benefits of policy measures, strategies and operational decisions. 相似文献
3.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(3):295-301
A market place designed to provide a variety of weather-sensitive institutions with products for dealing with their risks
from weather-climate hazards has been developing in recent years. Shifts in demographics, growing population, and greater
wealth across the U.S., coupled with de-regulation of utilities and expansion of global economics, have increased corporate
vulnerability to weather/climate extremes. Availability of long-term quality climate data and new technologies have allowed
development of weather-risk products. One widely used by electric-gas utilities is weather derivatives. These allow a utility
to select a financially critical seasonal weather threshold and for a price paid to a provider, to get financial payments
if this threshold is exceeded. Another new product primarily used by the insurance industry is weather risk models. These
define the potential risks of severe weather losses across a region where little historical insured loss data exists. Firms
develop weather-risk models based on historical storm information combined with a target region’s societal, economic, and
physical conditions. Examples of the derivatives and weather-risk models and their uses are presented. These various endeavors
of the new weather market exhibit the potential for dealing with shifts in weather risks due to a change in climate. 相似文献
4.
Mohsen Tavakoli Florimond De Smedt Thomas Vansteenkiste Patrick Willems 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):2127-2142
This study investigates how extreme flows in the Grote Nete watershed located in the Flanders region of Belgium will respond to climate change and urban growth using the hydrological model WetSpa. Three climate change scenarios (low, mean and high), three urban development scenarios (low, medium and high) and the nine combined climate–urban change scenarios are considered. The results indicate that extreme low flows would decrease noticeably by climate change, while they would be less sensitive to urban development. On the other hand, extreme peak flows are predicted to increase considerably due to both climate change and urban growth. It is concluded that coupling the effects of land use change with climate change may lead to severe increase in the frequency river floods in winter as well as the frequency of extreme river low flows in summer. 相似文献
5.
R. Molarius V. Könönen P. Leviäkangas Zulkarnain J. Rönty A.-M. Hietajärvi K. Oiva 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(1):189-210
The European 7th Framework Programme project Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport devised a holistic analysis of extreme weather risks for the transport system. The analysis provided an overview of extreme weather risks, or a risk panorama. The risk panorama was built on a probabilistic approach to extreme weather phenomena occurrences and on vulnerability analysis based on selected macro-level economic and transport system indicators of the member states of EU-27. The panorama covers all transport modes and views infrastructure-related risks, time delay risks, and accidents risks. In addition to climatic circumstances, the devised risk indicator is also dependent on regional circumstances, such as population and transport density and income level. This paper describes the construct and application of an extreme weather risk indicator (EWRI). EWRIs are counted for each country and each transport mode separately. Furthermore, this paper also presents the most significant extreme weather events in different parts of Europe and on the transport modes they affect the most. 相似文献
6.
We investigate the use of social capital in the form of social ties in the face of commercialization, urbanization and climate change. While discussions of social capital often focus on whether people possess certain social ties or not our study shows that it is also necessary to consider under what circumstances people can make use of their ties. The use of different kinds of ties varies with context and is not as clear cut as suggested in the literature. For example families closer to the city are in a better position to take advantage of new opportunities. Using a combination of ties people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems unsustainable in the long run. Thus, decreased vulnerability at the household level may come at the price of increased vulnerability at higher levels and negative consequences for the wider social–ecological system. Evaluating vulnerability and the role of social ties depends on the unit and sector of analysis, and the temporal and spatial scale. 相似文献
7.
O. Mistage P. Bilotta 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(6):1331-1342
Keeping temperature rise well below 2 °C is Paris Climate Agreement’s main commitment and corporate-level participation will be crucial to achieve national mitigation targets. Hence, companies should adopt measures that allow them to adapt to upcoming scenarios where low-carbon production is expected to become mandatory and a great competitive advantage. However, mitigation strategies cannot be evaluated without consideration of subjective environmental criteria. Consequently, lack of decision support methodologies for climate change evaluation in industries is a barrier for innovation. Aiming at consideration of non-monetary aspects, we develop a support method that incorporates costs, benefits, opportunities and risks related to climate change in manufacturing industries. First, we compared the most relevant multi-criteria decision analysis methodologies and identified an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the most suitable for ranking corporate climate change strategies. Then, we collected global analysis criteria from the most important socially responsible investment indices, and climate change scientific studies. To adapt these criteria to the AHP method, each criterion was sorted into benefits, opportunities, costs or risks hierarchies. Proposed method was efficient for assessing long-term subjective criteria and ranking alternatives for GHG emission management in two large manufacturing companies. A sensitivity analysis of the outcome revealed its consistency and flexibility for ranking alternatives and weighting criteria. Finally, the method is not limited to a particular type of industry and it can be adapted to other areas, such as service companies, sanitation or public sector. 相似文献
8.
Natural Hazards - The frequency of extreme weather events has increased in recent decades due to climate change, and the demand for both more accurate weather forecasts and early warnings surges in... 相似文献
9.
Climate change is considered as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The increasing adverse health effects of climate change has been a public concern worldwide. In order to develop the specific health response strategies, a key research project, "Climate change and human health: Risk assessments, early signals and response strategies", was approved by the National Key R & D Program of China in May 2018. This project will integrate researchers from multidisciplinary background, such as public health, medicine, meteorological sciences, disaster management, to address the following scientific questions: ①The impact of climate change on population health and its regional heterogeneity; ②The underlying mechanisms and pathways of how climate change and extreme events impact on health; ③Capture of the early signals of climate system anomalies which may lead to regional health risks; ④The comprehensive health risk assessments and development of coping strategies for tackling climate change. This project will improve our understanding of climate change and health and help policy maker to develop national and local responses to climate change in China. 相似文献
10.
为厘清黄龙钙华退化受气候变化调控规律,探究影响钙华沉积的生物与非生物因素对气候变化产生的响应,通过对钙华相关研究的专著及文献进行分析,从直接影响气候变化的水文因素和大气二氧化碳浓度出发,探索其对钙华退化的影响,表明水文过程及气候变化引起的极端事件是导致钙华退化的主要原因:（1）适宜的气候加速钙华沉积,极端的气候则会引起钙华退化;（2）气候变化主要是通过影响极端降水导致钙华退化,如干旱使钙华裸露受风化侵蚀而洪涝灾害使钙华受冲刷或被稀释效应影响;（3）全球变暖导致藻类大量富集,亦会破坏钙华。在钙华保育过程中,一方面应避免因极端气候事件对钙华的破坏,并在其发生时因势利导,缓解其负面效应对钙华的影响,另一方面提倡节能减排,抵御区域二氧化碳浓度升高导致的藻类大面积滋生,以便更好地保护钙华景观。 相似文献
11.
对全球气候变化对地质灾害的响应关系,尤其是对滑坡和泥石流灾害的响应关系进行了综述。工业化革命以来,特别是近几十年来全球气候发生着重要的变化,全球几乎所有地区都经历着升温过程。全球气候变化对极端天气事件(极端降雨、气温升高、强风和洪水灾害)的影响尤为强烈,并且增加了地质灾害的发生风险。其中,水循环和气温的变化是影响地质灾害发生的直接因素。气温上升会导致大气层含水量升高、冰川冻土退化、海平面上升、蒸发作用增强;水循环变化会导致降雨频率、降水周期、降水强度的改变。日益增加的极端天气与同岩土体相互作用,导致了不同类型地质灾害的发生,严重威胁着人类的生活起居。 相似文献
12.
Juha Schweighofer 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(1):23-40
Similarly to other modes of transport, inland waterway transport has to deal with weather events, affecting navigation conditions and the infrastructure on inland waterways. Most significant extreme weather events result from high precipitation, droughts and temperatures below zero degrees Celsius. Heavy rainfall, in particular in association with snow melt, may lead to floods resulting in suspension of navigation and causing damage to the inland waterway infrastructure as well as the property and health of human beings living in areas exposed to flooding. Long periods of drought may lead to reduced discharge and low water levels, limiting the cargo-carrying capacity of vessels and increasing the specific costs of transportation. Temperatures below zero degrees Celsius over a longer period may cause the appearance of ice on waterways, leading to suspension of navigation and possible damage to infrastructure, for example, buoys. Neither extreme weather events as well as climate change are new phenomena nor is their general occurrence expected to change suddenly. However, due to climate change, extreme weather events may change positively or adversely in severity and frequency of occurrence, depending on the respective weather event and the location of its occurrence. This paper gives an overview of the impact of extreme weather events on inland waterway transport in Europe, focussed on the Rhine–Main–Danube corridor, followed by a discussion on how climate change will change these events and their impacts. 相似文献
13.
Qing Sun Zaiqiang Yang Xianghong Che Wei Han Fangmin Zhang Fang Xiao 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):69-88
The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions. 相似文献
14.
Managing the risks of extreme events such as natural disasters to advance climate change adaptation (CCA) has been a global focus. However, a critical challenge in supporting CCA is to improve its linkage with disaster risk reduction (DRR). Based on discussions on similarities and differences between CCA and DRR concerning their spatial–temporal scales, main focuses, preferred research approaches and methodologies, etc., this paper tentatively put forward an analytical framework of “6W” for linking DRR with CCA. This framework presented preliminary answers to a series of fundamental questions, such as “What is adaptation with respect to disaster risk?” “Why adaptation is needed?” “Who adapt to what?” “How to adapt?” “What are the possible principles to assess the adaptation effect?” To bridge the research gaps between CCA and DRR, it is imperative to associate the adaptation actions with both near-term disaster risk and long-term climate change and formulate adaptation strategies at various spatial–temporal scales by embracing uncertainty in a changing climate. 相似文献
15.
General circulation models have suggested that the number of extreme floods and droughts will increase with climate change; recent analyses of satellite data have demonstrated that these increases have been higher than predicted. Coastal systems, like the Delaware Estuary, can be vulnerable to such extreme weather events. In analyzing the 100- and 80-year records of the two major rivers of the Delaware Estuary, we find that about 20% of the very large and 50% of the extreme daily discharges occurred in the current decade (2001?C2011), and this represents a significant increase in flood occurrence compared with the rest of the discharge record. This is consistent with predictions of increased extreme weather conditions (inundation and drought) from climate change. Previously, we had characterized the Delaware Estuary as usually well mixed in the summer without significant bottom water oxygen depletion, based on our 30-year research efforts, and a 44-year agency monitoring record. In the summer of 2006, an extreme river discharge pushed the Delaware Estuary salinity gradient further downstream than seen in our research record and induced a nutrient influx to the nutrient-poor lower bay regions. As a result, stratification apparently allowed for a rapid phytoplankton biomass increase similar to the spring bloom phenomenon. A simple modeling exercise supports the idea that although unusual for this estuary in the summer, oxygen depletion occurred in response to the bloom biomass falling and decomposing in the isolated bottom waters. Using the summer 2006 anomalous discharge event and the resultant stratification as an illustration, and considering the significant increase in large and extreme floods in the last decade, we suggest that the typology of the Delaware Estuary is shifting as a result of climate change. 相似文献
16.
Firm finances, weather derivatives and geography 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper considers some intellectual, practical and political dimensions of collaboration between human and physical geographers exploring how firms are using relatively new financial products - weather derivatives - to displace any costs of weather-related uncertainty and risk. The paper defines weather derivatives and indicates how they differ from weather insurance products before considering the geo-political, cultural and economic context for their creation. The paper concludes by reflecting on the challenges of research collaboration across the human-physical geography divide and suggests that while such initiatives may be undermined by a range of institutional and intellectual factors, conversations between physical and human geographers remain and are likely to become increasingly pertinent. The creation of a market in weather derivatives raises a host of urgent political and regulatory questions and the confluence of natural and social knowledges, co-existing within and through the geography academy, provides a constructive and creative basis from which to engage with this new market and wider discourses of uneven economic development and climate change. 相似文献
17.
为了探索极端气候事件引发重大地质灾害的综合减灾防灾战略,提高主动减灾防灾的科技能力与管理水平,积极应对全球变化条件下中国地质灾害防治面临的挑战,本文在"全球灾变事件与重大地质灾害减灾战略研究会"与会专家汇报和讨论的基础上,结合近年来国内重大地质灾害事件,从新构造与地震活动,气候变化,人口与城镇化进程三个方面开展分析,试图探讨我国2010年重大地质灾害多发,群发的原因,并对我国地质灾害今后面临的总体形势做出宏观研判。综合分析认为:①近年来全球构造运动和地震活动进入一个新的相对活跃期,我国处于欧亚地震带和环太平洋地震带的交汇区,是现今构造地震活动强烈响应区,尤其是印度板块的强烈活动,使青藏高原周缘地区的地震活动频繁,断裂活动增强,内外动力耦合作用下的地质灾害频发是总体趋势;②全球气候变化引起的极端气候异常条件使地质灾害的成灾模式趋于多样化和复杂化,由于中国大陆是全球最大大陆性气候和海洋性气候交汇地带,也是地貌高差气候变化最大的地区,特别是2010年长时间干旱,汛期集中的高强度、长持时的降雨、局部强暴雨导致大规模滑坡泥石流灾害,尤其是在青藏高原周缘等内动力作用强烈地区,导致地质灾害频发;③人口增长、城镇化进程及工程经济活动是地质灾害发生不可忽视的重要因素,城镇化建设和工程经济活动规模大,且逐步向生态地质环境相对脆弱的地区转移,城镇人口密度快速增加,特别是山区城镇自主防灾减灾意识薄弱,直接导致地质灾害伤亡和损失程度加重。为了应对全球变化条件下的中国地质灾害形势,提高我国地质灾害防灾科技能力与管理水平,从我国地质灾害防灾减灾的现状分析入手,充分借鉴国际自然灾害综合减灾与风险管理的成功经验与策略,从推进中国地质灾害风险管理的角度提出了7点综合减灾建议,以期起到抛砖引玉的作用,推动政府管理部门、专业技术人员参与地质灾害综合减灾的广泛交流与讨论,促进防灾减灾科技与策略在实践中应用,为应对全球变化的中国地质灾害综合减灾集思广益。 相似文献
18.
Climate change alters global food systems, especially agriculture and fisheries—significant aspects of the livelihoods and food security of populations. The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report identified Southeast Asia as the most vulnerable coastal region in the world, and highlighted the potential distribution of impacts and risks of climate change in the region. While climate hazards may differ across geographical regions, the impact of climate extremes on food production will affect marginal farmers, fishers and poor urban consumers disproportionately, as they have limited capacities to adapt to and recover from extreme weather events. Governments and other stakeholders need to respond to climate extremes and incorporate adaptation into national development plans. Unfortunately, there is still limited peer-review publication on the subject matter. This paper presents some findings from research on observed and projected loss and damage inflicted by climate extremes on agricultural crops in Southeast Asia. 相似文献
19.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):621-628
Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21st century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. 相似文献
20.
J. N. Okpara E. A. Afiesimama A. C. Anuforom A. Owino K. O. Ogunjobi 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(2):555-583
The Niger River basin is drought-prone, and farmers are often exposed to the vagaries of severe weather and extreme climate events of the region. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought are important for its mitigation. With 52 years of gauged-based monthly rainfall, the study investigates the potentials of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as standard measure for meteorological drought, its characterization, early warning systems and use in weather index-based insurance. Gamma probability distribution type 2, which best fits the rainfall frequency distribution of the region, was used for the transformation of the skewed rainfall data to derive the SPI. Results showed 9, 5, 5 and 6 drought events of severe to extreme intensities occurred in the headwaters of the basin, inner delta, middle Niger, and lower Niger sub-watersheds, respectively. Their magnitudes were in the range 1–5, 2–6, 2–8 and 2–7, respectively. Spatially, results further showed that the 1970s and 1980s drought events were dominantly of moderate (SPI values ?1 to ?1.49) and severe (SPI values ?1.5 to ?1.99) intensities, respectively, with sporadic cases of severe to extreme drought intensities occurring in 1970s and extreme to exceptional intensities in the 1980s. Further investigations show that 3-month SPI indicated 85% of variance in the standardized cereal crop yield, which suites well as weather index insurance variable. The study therefore proposes SPI weather index-based insurance as a pathway forward to ameliorate the negative impacts on insured farmers in this region in terms of indemnity payouts whenever drought disaster occurs. 相似文献