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1.
J. Marti R. Spence E. Calogero A. Ordoñez A. Felpeto P. Baxter 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047). 相似文献
2.
L.R. Henriquez 《Marine pollution bulletin》1994,29(6-12):317-322
Offshore oil and gas activities may lead to a conflict between the protection of the marine environment and health and safety aspects. Priority given to the protection of the marine environment may have an impact on the health or safety of the people working offshore and/or the integrity of the offshore installation. Previous health and safety protection measures are now known to create large-scale effects on the environment, e.g. the application of polychlorinated biphenyls as a cooling medium in transformers and the application of the ozone-depleting halons for efficient fire protection. Risk assessment, taking all health and safety aspects into account, may be the primary mechanism to justify operational procedures agreed by the national authorities as well as by the Exploration and Production industry. Risk assessment of health and safety aspects uses several models which are applied when designing new offshore installations. Several models, which have been developed in the last couple of years, are now available for the assessment of the environmental risk. This paper considers the need for the application of risk assessment with respect to all aspects, health, safety and environment, in order to determine a balanced set of priorities and protection measures. 相似文献
3.
Fuel oil #6 is used for the production of electrical power in the United States. Orimulsion is being considered as an alternative fuel, but its value and risk compared to fuel oil #6 need to be assessed. Our study examined the relative impact of accidental spills of the two hydrocarbons on the meiofaunal community. To do so, we maintained microcosms of the shallow, sandy, subtidal environment for three months. Treatment microcosms received a single application of hydrocarbon-coated sand. As indicators of effect, we used copepod and nematode abundance and copepod species diversity, sex ratio, fecundity, age structure, and neutral-lipid content. A comparison of the hydrocarbon treatments showed no significant differences. The tests had adequate power to detect ecologically significant changes. Our results indicate that a spill of Orimulsion would have approximately the same impact as a spill of fuel oil #6 on the meiofauna. 相似文献
4.
M. Janga Reddy Vijay P. Singh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):475-489
This study investigated the utility of two meta-heuristic algorithms to estimate parameters of copula models and for derivation of drought severity–duration–frequency (S–D–F) curves. Drought is a natural event, which has huge impact on both the society and the natural environment. Drought events are mainly characterized by their severity, duration and intensity. The study adopts standardized precipitation index for drought characterization, and copula method for multivariate risk analysis of droughts. For accurate estimation of copula model parameters, two meta-heuristic methods namely genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are applied. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study in Trans Pecos, an arid region in Texas, USA. First, drought severity and duration are separately modeled by various probability distribution functions and then the best fitted models are selected for copula modeling. For modeling the joint dependence of drought variables, different classes of copulas, namely, extreme value copulas, Plackett and Student’s t copulas are employed and their performance is evaluated using standard performance measures. It is found that for the study region, the Gumbel–Hougaard copula is the best fitted copula model as compared to the others and is used for the development of drought S–D–F curves. Results of the study suggest that the meta-heuristic methods have greater utility in copula-based multivariate risk assessment of droughts. 相似文献
5.
Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management. 相似文献
6.
Framework of aftershock fragility assessment–case studies: older California reinforced concrete building frames 
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下载免费PDF全文 Current seismic design codes and damage estimation tools neglect the influence of successive events on structures. However, recent earthquakes have demonstrated that structures damaged during an initial event (mainshock) are more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). This increased vulnerability to damage translates to increased likelihood of loss of use, property, and life. Thus, a reliable risk assessment tool is required that characterizes the risk of the undamaged structure subjected to an initial event and the risk of the damaged structure under subsequent events. In this paper, a framework for development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a building damaged during a mainshock will exhibit a given damage state following one or more aftershocks. Thus, the framework provides a method for characterizing the risk associated with damage accumulation in the structure. The framework includes the following: (i) creation of a numerical model of the structure; (ii) characterization of building damage states; (iii) generation of a suite of mainshock–aftershocks; (iv) mainshock–aftershock analyses; and (v) development of aftershock fragility curves using probabilistic aftershock demand models, defined as a linear regression of aftershock demand–intensity pairs in a logarithmic space, and damage‐state prediction models. The framework is not limited to a specific structure type but requires numerical models defining structural response and linking structural response with damage. In the current study, non‐ductile RC frames (low‐rise, mid‐rise, and high‐rise) are selected as case studies for the application of the framework. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
This paper discusses results from a survey of volcanologists carried out on the Volcano Listserv during late 2008 and early 2009. In particular, it examines the status of volcano monitoring technologies and their relative perceived value at persistently and potentially active volcanoes. It also examines the role of different types of knowledge in hazard assessment on active volcanoes, as reported by scientists engaged in this area, and interviewees with experience from the current eruption on Montserrat. Conclusions are drawn about the current state of monitoring and the likely future research directions, and also about the roles of expertise and experience in risk assessment on active volcanoes; while local knowledge is important, it must be balanced with fresh ideas and expertise in a combination of disciplines to produce an advisory context that is conducive to high-level scientific discussion. 相似文献
8.
Lawrence D. Lemke Andrew S. Bahrou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(1):27-39
Quantifying human cancer risk arising from exposure to contaminated groundwater is complicated by the many hydrogeological,
environmental, and toxicological uncertainties involved. In this study, we used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate cancer
risk associated with tetrachloroethene (PCE) dissolved in groundwater by linking three separate models for: (1) reactive contaminant
transport; (2) human exposure pathways; and (3) the PCE cancer potency factor. The hydrogeologic model incorporates an analytical
solution for a one-dimensional advective–dispersive–reactive transport equation to determine the PCE concentration in a water
supply well located at a fixed distance from a continuous source. The pathway model incorporates PCE exposure through ingestion,
inhalation, and dermal contact. The toxicological model combines epidemiological data from eight rodent bioassays of PCE exposure
in the form of a composite cumulative distribution frequency curve for the human PCE cancer potency factor. We assessed the
relative importance of individual model variables through their correlation with expected cancer risk calculated in an ensemble
of Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 trials. For the scenarios evaluated, three factors were most highly correlated with
cancer risk: (1) the microbiological decay constant for PCE in groundwater, (2) the linear groundwater pore velocity, and
(3) the cancer potency factor. We then extended our analysis beyond conventional expected value risk assessment using the
partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to generate expected-value functions conditional to a 1 in 100,000 increased
cancer risk threshold. This approach accounts for low probability/high impact outcomes separately from the conventional unconditional
expected values. Thus, information on potential worst-case outcomes can be quantified for decision makers. Using PMRM, we
evaluated the cost-benefit relationship of implementing several postulated risk management alternatives intended to mitigate
the expected and conditional cancer risk. Our results emphasize the importance of hydrogeologic models in risk assessment,
but also illustrate the importance of integrating environmental and toxicological uncertainty. When coupled with the PMRM,
models integrating uncertainty in transport, exposure, and potency constitute an effective risk assessment tool for use within
a risk-based corrective action (RBCA) framework. 相似文献
9.
Spatially varying ground motion (SVGM) may have influence on certain civil engineering structures with spatially extended superstructure and/or substructures. Conditional simulation of spatially varying ground motion (CSSVGM) may be viewed from two different perspectives. Most procedures available in the literature neglect the spatial variability in auto-spectral density (ASD) and estimate the SVGM through cross-spectral density (CSD) which was computed using the empirical coherency models. This paper proposes a coherency model that accounts for the spatial variability of ASD. A framework has been developed for the CSSVGM, through the mapping of both proposed coherency model and ASD over the footprint of an array. Current framework (existing in the literature) accounts for only the phase variability of SVGM while proposed framework accounts for both phase and amplitude variability. Ground motion generated from both perspectives is then assessed with the data recorded over SMART1 and LSST arrays. For the purpose of assessment, a definition of target spectrum based on the direction of arrival is explored. The effect of choice of coherency model on the simulated spatially varying ground motion is investigated first. Spectra resulting from both the perspectives are assessed against the target spectrum. An attempt has been made to predict the SVGM for a future event using a coherency model calibrated against a past event and an estimate of ASD of the seed ground motion. Finally, the effect of form of ASD (of a seed ground motion) on SVGM simulated is investigated by considering the ASD in different forms. Simulating SVGM through the mapping of both coherency model and ASD seems to be more appropriate than through CSD. 相似文献
10.
Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (TR), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available. 相似文献
11.
Reliable records of water use for irrigation are often lacking. This presents a difficulty for a qualified water use and water availability assessment. Quantification of the hydrologic cycle processes in regions of intensive agricultural practice requires irrigation as an input to hydrologic models. This paper presents a coupled forward-inverse framework to estimate irrigation schedule using remote-sensed data and data assimilation and optimization techniques. Irrigation schedule is treated as an unknown input to a hydro-agronomic simulation model. Remote-sensed data is used to assess actual crop evapotranspiration, which is used as the “observation” of the computed crop evapotranspiration from the simulation model. To handle the impact of model and observation error and the unknown biased error with irrigation inputs, a coupled forward-inverse approach is proposed, implemented and tested. The coupled approach is realized by an integrated ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and genetic algorithm (GA). The result from a case study demonstrates that the forward and inverse procedures in the coupled framework are complementary to each other. Further analysis is provided on the impact of model and observation errors on the non-uniqueness problem with inverse modeling and on the exactness of irrigation estimates. 相似文献
12.
A fully integrated and effective response to an oil or chemical spill at sea must include a well planned and executed post-incident assessment of environmental contamination and damage. While salvage, rescue and clean-up operations are generally well considered, including reviews and exercises, the expertise, resources, networks and logistical planning required to achieve prompt and effective post-spill impact assessment and monitoring are not generally well established.The arrangement and co-ordination of post-incident monitoring and impact assessment need to consider sampling design, biological effects, chemical analysis and collection/interpretation of expert local knowledge. This paper discusses the risks, impacts and mitigation options associated with accidental spills and considers the importance of pre-considered impact assessment and monitoring programmes in the wider response cycle. The PREMIAM (Pollution Response in Emergencies: Marine Impact Assessment and Monitoring; www.premiam.org) project is considered as an example of an improved approach to the planning, co-ordination and conduct of post-incident monitoring. 相似文献
13.
Introduction The estimation of damage probability distribution among different damage states of rein-forced concrete buildings is a key component of earthquake loss estimation for modern city or a group of cities. With the development of city, the reinforced concrete buildings are major compo-nent parts of modern cities. Vulnerability estimates for these kinds of buildings are of importance to those responsible for civil protection, relief, and emergency services to enable adequate contin-genc… 相似文献
14.
着重分析海南省市县地震应急评估系统关键技术和部署要点,在2018年保亭2.9级地震发生后,该系统在应急成果产出、应急决策中发挥了重要服务作用,充分表明,海南省市县地震应急评估系统是全省地震应急联动服务工作的重要业务支撑平台。 相似文献
15.
We used an established seagrass monitoring programme to examine the short and longer-term impacts of an oil spill event on intertidal seagrass meadows. Results for potentially impacted seagrass areas were compared with existing monitoring data and with control seagrass meadows located outside of the oil spill area. Seagrass meadows were not significantly affected by the oil spill. Declines in seagrass biomass and area 1month post-spill were consistent between control and impact meadows. Eight months post-spill, seagrass density and area increased to be within historical ranges. The declines in seagrass meadows were likely attributable to natural seasonal variation and a combination of climatic and anthropogenic impacts. The lack of impact from the oil spill was due to several mitigating factors rather than a lack of toxic effects to seagrasses. The study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring of critical habitats in high risk areas to effectively assess impacts. 相似文献
16.
Coastal flood risk will likely increase in the future due to urban development, sea-level rise, and potential change of storm surge climatology, but the latter has seldom been considered in flood risk analysis. We propose an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess coastal flood risk at regional scales, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. The framework is composed of two components: a modeling scheme to collect and combine necessary physical information and a formal, Poisson-based theoretical scheme to derive various risk measures of interest. Time-varying risk metrics such as the return period of various damage levels and the mean and variance of annual damage are derived analytically. The mean of the present value of future losses (PVL) is also obtained analytically in three ways. Monte Carlo (MC) methods are then developed to estimate these risk metrics and also the probability distribution of PVL. The analytical and MC methods are theoretically and numerically consistent. A case study is performed for New York City (NYC). It is found that the impact of population growth and coastal development on future flood risk is relatively small for NYC, sea-level rise will significantly increase the damage risk, and storm climatology change can also increase the risk and uncertainty. The joint effect of all three dynamic factors is possibly a dramatic increase of the risk over the twenty-first century and a significant shift of the probability distribution of the PVL towards high values. In a companion paper (Part II), we extend the iDraft to perform probabilistic benefit-cost analysis for various flood mitigation strategies proposed for NYC to avert the potential impact of climate change. 相似文献
17.
With a need for the management of petroleum contaminated sites on Romanian territory, an experimental software platform involving ESRI‐ArcGIS technologies (BIOREGIS) is presented in this study. The BIOREGIS platform is aimed to: (i) Build the structure of relational, standardized databases to store spatial and textual characteristic information on polluted sites for further risk analysis and planning of remediation actions, (ii) improve the pollution risk assessment methodology for Romanian petroleum contaminated sites and its informatics implementation, and (iii) develop and operate the software platform for pollution risk based management involving GIS/remote sensing technologies and remediation activities. The operation of BIOREGIS has been tested for a pilot contaminated area situated at Razvad – Dambovita County, which has been subjected to in situ remediation procedures involving both bioremediation and electrokinetic processes. 相似文献
18.
《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(5-12):431-437
We used an established seagrass monitoring programme to examine the short and longer-term impacts of an oil spill event on intertidal seagrass meadows. Results for potentially impacted seagrass areas were compared with existing monitoring data and with control seagrass meadows located outside of the oil spill area.Seagrass meadows were not significantly affected by the oil spill. Declines in seagrass biomass and area 1 month post-spill were consistent between control and impact meadows. Eight months post-spill, seagrass density and area increased to be within historical ranges. The declines in seagrass meadows were likely attributable to natural seasonal variation and a combination of climatic and anthropogenic impacts. The lack of impact from the oil spill was due to several mitigating factors rather than a lack of toxic effects to seagrasses. The study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring of critical habitats in high risk areas to effectively assess impacts. 相似文献
19.
Integration degree of risk in terms of scene and application 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Chongfu Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):473-484
Risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. Scene means something seen by a viewer, or felt by individuals
or various societal groups. Any risk assessment is to model some aspects of the scene for risk. Different aspects for assessment
leads to different scene. In this paper, we suggest the integration degree of risk to distinguish characters of risks with
respect to the aspects. The total number of factors of a risk system determines the macro degree and the granulation scale
for measuring a risk reflects the micro degree. A simple framework depends on the degrees provides an explanation of the integrated
risk. The most common model for risk assessment is available for the two-freedom-degree serial risk. A case studying flood
risk shows the application to explain what the risk is, where the information is incomplete and we use the information diffusion
technique to estimate the risk.
Project 40771007 supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China. 相似文献