共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 187 毫秒
1.
强震前中期地震活动的变化及TIP预测研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
用改进的Ｍ８算法研究了１９７９年以来我国华北西南及邻近地区共１６次强震前的ＴＩＰ，即震发生概率增长时间。结果表明，１４次强震发生在补判定为概率增长时间的ＴＩＰ内。ＴＩＰ警戒约占研究部时空域的３７％，获得了较好的强震中期预测内符效果。表明该方法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。 相似文献
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按两种分区和两对象划分方式在华北地区进行了ＴＩＰ中期地震预报方法中ＣＮ算法的应用检验。结果表明，被检验的中强地震中有８０％震前出现了ＴＩＰ，ＴＩＰ持续时间最长３年多，最短０．７个月，平均为１４－１６个月左右。ＴＩＰ警戒时段点总研究时间的３２％，综合计算报准率Ｒ值为０．５左右。表明该算法不失为一种较好的中期地震预报方法，在华北地区有实用意义。最后对方法中某些有待改进的问题进行了简单讨论。 相似文献
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在ＳＩＰ算法的基础上,确立了地震流函数的定义方法和异常判别准则,定义了９个非线性地震流函数,通过对中国东部近期７次６级以上强震的ＳＩＰ回溯性研究表明,７次强震中的６次落入ＳＩＰ预测空间域内,有震报为８６％,ＳＩＰ预测警戒空间域为３２％,Ｒ值评分为０．５４,证明非线性地震流函数用于中期地震预测具有较发的前景。 相似文献
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用改进的Ｍ８算法研究了１９７９年以来大华北地区存在的ＴＩＰ，即强震发生概率增长时间，结果表明８次中强震有７次发生在被判定为概率增长时间内，ＴＩＰ警戒占研究总时空域的４０．７％，Ｒ评分为０．４６８。获得了较好的中强震中期预测内符效果，表明该方法可作为大华北地区中强震中期预报的手段之一。 相似文献
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本文用ＣＮ算法研究了我国近期大陆东部和西部南北带及邻近区域共２３次强震前的ＴＩＰ，即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明，１８次强震发生在被判定的强震发生概率增长时间的ＴＩＰ内。ＴＩＰ警戒约占总研究时空域的３０％，获得了较好的中期地震预测效果。表明ＣＮ算法可作为强震中期预报的手段之一。 相似文献
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基于最大熵原理,得到地震时间间隔和地震震级的概率分布函数。根据时间间隔分布,得到地震发震概率,当概率上升达到警界值时,可对云南5级以上中强地震做出预测。6个月以内中短期预测对应率为91％;3个月以内,短临期预测对应率为73％。根据震级分布,得到用最大熵原理求出的地震理论发生次数,理论发震次数与实际较为接近。用最大熵原理求出了云南不同地区不同震级档次5级以上中强地震的复发周期。分析认为,云南7级以上大震危险性在逐步逼近,西部危险性高于东部。 相似文献
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新疆强震活动的ＴＩＰ方法预测吴晓莉（新疆防御自然灾害研究所，乌鲁木齐，８３００１１）０概述ＴＩＰ是近年来由俄罗斯地震学家们提出的一套中期地震预报的算法［１、２］。ＴＩＰ即分析某个地区的地震序列，找出地震概率的增加时段。该方法所用资料是基于经过分离余震... 相似文献
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使用地震频次及其变化，平均震级和地震加权和的变化作为地震流函数研究了发生在１９８０－１９８９年期间中国大陆的６级强震前的地震概率增长时间。结果表明，１０次强震中９次发生在ＴＩＰ之后，而且最长ＴＩＰ为３．５年，ＴＩＰ总时空占有率为３０％。用同样的原则对新区进行识别也获得了好的结果。 相似文献
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应用ＴＩＰ中期地震预报方法中的ＣＮ算法，对河南省及其邻区发生的中等地震进行了性检验。结果表明内符效果较好，被检验的中等地震中有８０％地震前出现了ＴＩＰ，ＴＩＰ警戒时段占研究时间的２３．３％，综合计算报准率Ｒ值为０．５９。说明该算法对中等地震原中期预报具有实用意义。 相似文献
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对SQIP地震学中期预测方法在华北地区的中期预测效果进行了重新评价,回溯性全时空扫描检验报准率R值约为0.67~0.68。做了方法中短期和短期预测指标的提取尝试。结果表明综合参量P值异常区由最大出现收缩后,平均约7个月左右发生未来主震,其中6个月内的震例约占有“收缩”震例的53%~54%,在3个月内的约占33%~35%;部分震例发生在异常区消失后7~8个月内。表明P值异常区“收缩”(或消失)一定程度上可以作为中、强地震的中短期预测标志。 相似文献
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ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎＴＳＩＰｍｅｔｈｏｄｆｏｒｍｅｄｉｕｍ－ｔｅｒｍｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＤｅ－ＹｕＨＵＡＮＧ（黄德瑜）；Ｙｕａｎ－ＱｉｎｇＺＨＵ（朱元清）；ＹｏｎｇＣＨＥＮ（陈颙）ａｎｄＹｉｎｇＪＩ（季颖）（ＣｅｎｔｒｅｆｏｒＡｎ... 相似文献
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Huang Deyu Chen YongCenter for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing China State Seismological Bureau Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1994,(4)
This paper offers a positive research result of TIP before 16 strong earthquakes in North and Southwest China and their nearby areas since 1979 by using improved algorithm M8.The result showed that 14 of them were determined to occur within the times of increased probability.TIP precaution occupies about 37% of the total space-time domain.That means we have made quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.So the method could be used as one of the useful means of the intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes. 相似文献
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The definition and abnormality discriminatory criteria of earthquake flow function are introduced in this paper based on the algorithm of Space Increased Probability (SIP). Nine earthquake flow functions were defined by the method. The retrospect test that applied the SIP algorithm with the nonlinear earthquake flow function to 7 earthquakes, which occurred from 1975 to 1989 in Eastern China, with a magnitude of 6 or greater depicted that 6 of the 7 strong earthquakes (86%) were located in the SIP areas, and the SIP covers about 32% of the total research time-space domain. These suggest that the R-value, an effective scale for earthquake forecast, is 54% and may imply that the nonlinear earthquake flow function introduced in this paper can be applied to the intermediate-term earthquake forecast research. 相似文献
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Huang Deyu Chen Yong Zhu Yuanqing Ji YingCenter for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing China 'State Seismological Bureau of China Beijing China !Setsmological Bureau of Shanghai Shanghai China 《中国地震研究》1995,(1)
This paper researches TIP before 23 strong earthquakes occurring in the eastern part and the southern and northern zones of the western part of China and their nearby areas in recent decades.The results show that 18 strong earthquakes occurred within the diagnosed TIP.The TIP precaution occupies about 30% of the total space-time domain which we researched,indicating quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of earthquakes.The algorithm CN can thus be used as an intermediate-term prediction method for strong earthquakes. 相似文献
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O. V. Novikova I. A. Vorobieva D. Enescu M. Radulian I. Kuznetzov G. F. Panza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,145(2):277-296
The application of the CN algorithm to a new earthquake catalogue, for the period from 1932 to 1993, obtained by merging Romanian and U.S.S.R. data, allows us to monitor, on the intermediate time scale. the preparation of strong, intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region. Four of the five strong earthquakes with magnitudes above 6.4 are predicted. The total duration of the Time of Increased Probability (TIP) of the occurrence of an earthquake (TIP) occupies 21.7% of the time interval under consideration, i.e., about 2.5 years for each strong earthquake. 相似文献
18.
Intermediate term earthquake prediction in the area of Greece: Application of the algorithm M8 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The 3 strongest earthquakes,M7.0, which have occurred since 1973 in the area of Greece were preceded by a specific increase of the earthquake activity in the lower magnitude range. This activation is depicted by algorithm M8. This algorithm of intermediate term earthquake prediction was originally designed for diagnosis by Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) of the strongest earthquake,M8.0 worldwide (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1984). At present the algorithm is retrospectively tested for smaller magnitudes in different seismic regions (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1986, 1988). A TIP refers to a time period of 5 years and an area whose linear size is proportional and several times larger than that of the incipient earthquake source. Altogether the TIPs diagnosed by the algorithm M8 in the area of Greece occupy less than 20% and the Times of Expectation (TEs) about 10% of the total space-time domain considered. Also there is a current TIP for the southeastern Aegean sea and 1988–1992. It may specify the long-term prediction given inWyss andBaer (1981a,b).The results of this study are further evidence favoring applicability of algorithm M8 in diverse seismotectonic environment and magnitude ranges and support indirectly the hypothesis of self-similarity of the earthquake activity. It also implies the possibility of intermediate term prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the area of Greece. 相似文献
19.
地震短期预测的概率方法浅议 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
和天气预报相比,地震预测,特别是地震的短临预测更为困难。概率方法真实地反映了地震发生的随机性,真实地反映了人类对于地震认识的局限性,加快短期预测的概率方法研究与应用是十分必要的。概率预测是经验预测、统计预测和物理预测的综合,各类地震预测方法特别是物理预测方法的发展还很不充分,目前仍处于探索阶段。从目前我国地震预测的现状来看,应大力发展统计预测方法。地震目录可为我们提供对背景地震发生率的估计,而前兆的出现使我们可以得到地震发生率大大高于背景发生率的时段,其增益越强,时段越短,越接近于理想预测。前兆和地震之间的关系的统计检验对于概率预测起着十分重要的作用。该文提出,应按实用化的要求逐步规范各种地震预测方法。这对地震预测研究的健康发展是至关重要的。 相似文献