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1.
Due to the fear of the consequences of climate change, many scientists today advocate the research into—but not deployment of—geoengineering, large-scale technological control of the global climate, to reduce the uncertainty around its efficacy and harms. Scientists propose in particular initiating field trials of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). This paper examines how the meanings of geoengineering experimentation, specifically SAI field trials, are reconfigured in the deliberation of the lay public. To this end, we conducted focus groups with Japanese citizens in June 2015 on the geoengineering concept and SAI field trials. Our main findings are as follows: the ‘climate emergency’ framing compelled the lay public to accept, either willingly or reluctantly, the need for ‘geoengineering research’; however, public discourse on SAI field trials was ambiguous and ambivalent, involving both tensions and dilemmas in understanding what the SAI field trial is for and about. Our results exhibit how the lay public wrestles with understanding the social, political, and ethical implications of SAI field trials in multiple dimensions, namely, accountability, controllability, predictability, and desirability. The paper argues that more clarity in the term ‘geoengineering research’ is needed to facilitate inclusive and pluralistic debates on geoengineering experimentation and not to preemptively arrive at a consensus that ‘we need more research.’ We conclude that ambivalence about both the pros and cons of geoengineering experimentation seems to be enduring; thus, instead of ignoring or repressing it, embracing ambivalence is required to keep the geoengineering debate democratic and inclusive.  相似文献   

2.
中国全球变化研究的回顾与展望   总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20  
林海 《地学前缘》2002,9(1):19-25
文中简要回顾了中国全球变化研究的历史 ,指出 ,1986— 1990年是中国国际地圈生物圈计划(IGBP)研究的初期 ,围绕IGBP主要科学问题如古环境、气候和海平面变化以及地气相互作用方面开展了有计划、有组织的研究。1991— 1995年中国全球变化研究有了较大发展 ,研究范围扩展到陆地生态系统 ,全球气候变化预测、影响和对策 ,中国生存环境变化以及生物多样性保护和持续利用等领域。1996— 2 0 0 0年其研究进一步与社会可持续发展相结合 ,成功实施了一批以中国科学家领衔的国际研究计划。随着新世纪的来临 ,中国一系列全球变化大型研究计划相继启动 ,使全球变化研究进入了一个新的发展阶段 ,特别是集成研究方法的应用 ,在解决与公众利益密切相关的由环境恶化所带来的一系列重大问题 ,组织全球变化的区域响应以及全球变化适应性等研究方面得到了深化和加强。  相似文献   

3.
《Atmósfera》2014,27(4):429-449
This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts.  相似文献   

4.
Climate change films are relevant to geographers working in sub-disciplines, such as environmental management, climate science and visual studies. This paper assesses the usefulness of climate change films in light of ongoing debates in science communication and climate change communication about the best-known and most popular movies. Using a handful of English-language films as a sample, the paper asks how the usefulness of climate change films is to be determined if not by sole reference to the accuracy or truthfulness of factual information. The paper demonstrates that all types of films (from award-winning science documentaries to Hollywood blockbusters) have been debated and critiqued, especially in regard to scientific verisimilitude and image integrity. Usefulness is therefore not a matter of film type. Nor is it simply a matter of accuracy, because films containing inaccuracies have their supporters as well. The paper evaluates usefulness in terms of the work that climate change films do and the methods they use. I argue that the two key criteria for determining usefulness are teachability and integrity. In conclusion, I reinforce calls to detach the issue of usefulness from accurate science per se. Useful films are educative, truthful and trustworthy, in ways not always intended by filmmakers.  相似文献   

5.
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6.
受气候变化和人类活动影响,黄河流域水资源量持续衰减。以往水资源归因分析的研究主要针对气候变化和人类活动对实测径流量衰减的贡献,对天然径流量衰减的原因关注不够,不利于支撑黄河流域水资源高效利用和科学管理。基于黄河二元水循环模型评价不同时期黄河流域天然河川径流量,并采用多因素归因分析方法分析主要影响因素对天然河川径流量衰减的贡献。结果表明,2016年水平年情景相比于1956—1979年水平年情景,花园口断面多年平均天然河川径流量减少114.6亿m3,其中气候变化、下垫面变化和社会经济取用水影响的贡献率分别为24.4%、25.0%和50.6%。从分区来看,兰州以上气候变化是主导因素,兰州以下人类活动是主导因素。为遏制天然河川径流量衰减的趋势,促进黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展,应加强深度节水、刚性控水、适度增水、强化管水和立法护水。  相似文献   

7.
In this article the author responds to the criticism that The Wrath of Capital: Neoliberalism and Climate Change Politics does not provide solutions to problems the book identifies. The author argues for the importance of developing a deep understanding of how neoliberalism has become the standard against which all social, economic, cultural, and political responses to climate change are measured. She goes onto re-iterate the main thesis of The Wrath of Capital, namely that this does not constitute an effective or equitable response to the challenges climate change presents. In her view understanding and thinking are important ingredients in developing a sustainable and equitable solution to climate change.  相似文献   

8.
Global environmental change shapes places and people through ongoing transformation of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and cultural phenomena. One region construed as highly vulnerable to global environmental change, particularly anthropogenic climate change, is the North. Recent research about human communities in Western arctic and subarctic places revolve around vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, focusing on loss of the ability to pursue traditional livelihoods, threats to ecosystems sustaining human communities and the need to adapt to new environmental regimes. Fewer studies address Russia and the perceptions and emotions related to climate change. To understand how people of the Russian North engage with climate change, I conducted ethnographic research in two rural and remote communities in subarctic alpine Kamchatka, Russia in 2009–2010. Local narratives about climate change largely reflect climate skepticism, and anthropogenic climate change is rejected as explaining environmental changes because: (1) climate is considered as naturally and cyclically changing, (2) humans are not considered a large enough force to alter natural climate cycles, (3) environmental problems are solvable with technology and (4) there is a lack of knowledge about climate change science. Thus, perceptions and emotions about transformation focus on other realms—socioeconomic, political, cultural—that are perceived as more critical to everyday life in the present and near future. Here, I describe these narratives and place the regional understanding of climate change in greater context to explain resistance to imagining environmental transformations due to climate change.  相似文献   

9.
小冰期时中国南方地区降水模式的差异研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
小冰期是过去一千年中全球气候变化的重要事件之一。关于小冰期时中国季风区和西风影响区气候变化的对比研究众多,但是缺乏中国南方地区降水模式时空差异的研究,难以了解中国南方地区降水变化规律。为了系统地了解小冰期时中国南方地区降水的复杂性,本文将中国南方地区划分为东南—华南沿海地区、中部地区以及西南地区三个区域,总共选取了19条高分辨率的古气候记录进行对比研究,主要有以下几点认识:(1)相对于中世纪暖期而言,小冰期期间中国南方东南—华南沿海地区的气候偏湿,这可能与雨带在中国南方的滞留时间延长和沿海地区受台风的影响增强有关。(2)中国中部地区秦岭南麓和神农架高山林区在小冰期时期主要呈"冷湿"的模式,差异在于秦岭南麓区域主要在小冰期中后期偏湿,这与中部其他区域偏"冷干"的模式不同。这种区域差异可能是由于地形地势和大气环流的复杂性导致。(3)中国西南地区受印度夏季风和东亚夏季风的共同影响,且该区域地形复杂,其气候变化在小冰期时期存在更加明显的空间差异,没有呈现出比较一致的降水模式。与小冰期期间的降水变化不同的是,近30年东南—华南沿海地区除了台湾和雷州半岛,其他区域降水明显减少,可能受气温和人类活动等因素的影响。通过结合高分辨率的古气候记录,我们系统分析了中国南方小冰期的干湿模式在时空上的差异及其可能的影响因子,这对于认识小冰期时中国南方不同区域降水的复杂性及未来旱涝灾害的防控具有一定意义。  相似文献   

10.
超长系列的降水资料是分析气候变化和预估未来区域水安全形势的重要支撑,但目前观测资料只有几十年时间尺度,利用相关历史文献资料进行系列重建是延长现有观测资料的主要手段。基于《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》和1959年以来实测降水资料,重建1470—2019年中国东部季风区的长序列降水数据,分析近550 a以来区域降水变化规律,剖析气候自然变异规律和人为气候变化对历史降水的影响,并通过CMIP6中等分辨率气候系统模式下的4种情景降水数据预估未来降水变化趋势。研究表明：(1)东部季风区降水年际分布不均,有明显的丰枯变化,1470—1691年整体处于枯水期,1692—1924年处于丰水期,1925年至今处于枯水期,存在准181 a周期;(2) 1991年后人为气候变化的影响已经显现,海河、黄河下游和长江流域部分降水倾向率发生显著变化,东部季风区总体降水增加趋势加快;(3)在未来气候变化情景下多年平均降水量较基准期(1961—1990年)显著增加,季节性变化加大,区域旱涝风险加剧。由于未来气候情景的不确定性,未来降水趋势预测的可信度尚未可知,需要进一步增强风险分析。  相似文献   

11.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2003,22(5-7):453-473
Lateglacial and early Holocene (ca 14–9000 14C yr BP; 15–10,000 cal yr BP) pollen records are used to make vegetation and climate reconstructions that are the basis for inferring mechanisms of past climate change and for validating palaeoclimate model simulations. Therefore, it is important that reconstructions from pollen data are realistic and reliable. Two examples of the need for independent validation of pollen interpretations are considered here. First, Lateglacial-interstadial Betula pollen records in northern Scotland and western Norway have been interpreted frequently as reflecting the presence of tree-birch that has strongly influenced the resulting climate reconstructions. However, no associated tree-birch macrofossils have been found so far, and the local dwarf-shrub or open vegetation reconstructed from macrofossil evidence indicates climates too cold for tree-birch establishment. The low local pollen production resulted in the misleadingly high percentage representation of long-distance tree-birch pollen. Second, in the Minnesotan Lateglacial Picea zone, low pollen percentages from thermophilous deciduous trees could derive either from local occurrences of the tree taxa in the Picea/Larix forest or from long-distance dispersal from areas further south. The regionally consistent occurrence of low pollen percentages, even in sites with local tundra vegetation, and the lack of any corresponding macrofossil records support the hypothesis that the trees were not locally present. Macrofossils in the Picea zone represent tundra vegetation or Picea/Larix forest associated with typically boreal taxa, suggesting it was too cold for most thermophilous deciduous trees to grow. Any long-distance tree pollen is not masked by the low pollen production of tundra and Picea and Larix and therefore it is registered relatively strongly in the percentage pollen spectra.Many Lateglacial pollen assemblages have no recognisable modern analogues and contain high representations of well-dispersed ‘indicator’ taxa such as Betula or Artemisia. The spectra could have been derived from vegetation types that do not occur today, perhaps responding to the different climate that resulted from the different balance of climate forcing functions then. However, the available contemporaneous plant-macrofossil assemblages can be readily interpreted in terms of modern vegetation communities, suggesting that the pollen assemblages could have been influenced by mixing of locally produced pollen with long-distance pollen from remote vegetation types that are then over-represented in situations with low local pollen production. In such situations, it is important to validate the climate reconstructions made from the pollen data with a macrofossil record.  相似文献   

12.
The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).  相似文献   

13.
Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean.  相似文献   

14.
One of the most important scientific concerns of the last few decades is climate change, which is the result of a great many factors like global warming. Although a number of studies have been dedicated to understand the phenomenon of climate change, more attention is required to understand the potential effects of global warming on the ecosystems as well as on human life. The present study was designed to survey the trends of minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity, and the time series of annual precipitation and 10-year moving average low-pass filter in the 13 synoptic weather stations of Iran’s arid and semi-arid regions during the last 55 years by using τ Kendall test. The analyses indicate a significantly increasing trend for the minimum and mean temperatures while a decreasing trend for the mean relative humidity in the arid and semi-arid regions, especially during the last few years up to the year 2000. Any clear increasing or decreasing trend was not found for the maximum temperature, while the precipitation did not show any increasing/decreasing trend for most of the surveyed stations. Further studies, with long-term programming, are recommended to be carried out to evaluate the climate change and its effects on such regions.  相似文献   

15.
Land use/cover change has occurred at all times in all parts of the world. Most affected and involved in these processes are the environmental spheres of water, soil, and vegetative cover, which are closely linked to geomorphology, climate, fauna, and especially human societies. These linkages between spheres are highly complex and, as of yet, incompletely understood. The most profound questions with respect to land use/cover and global change are: “What forces drive land use/land cover change?”, “What impacts — direct and indirect, now and in the future — do these changes have on the environment and on human society?” and “Can and should we, and if so, how, respond to these changes?” This partial teaching module, developed under the auspices of the Second Commission on College Geography of the Association of American Geographers, introduces students to the complexities inherent in these questions, but mainly focusses on the first of these. It illustrates the central role of the study of land land use/cover change within the large field of global environmental and climatic change, and is thus a good unit to introduce this area of interest.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
There is a growing understanding that the impacts of climate change affect different communities within a country, in a variety of ways—not always uniformly. This article reports on research conducted in the middle hills region of Nepal that explored climate change vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity across different well-being groups, genders of the head of household and household location. In the study region, dry land farming has increasingly experienced climate-induced changes to farm productivity and natural resources. The experience of vulnerability to decreased livelihood options and natural resource hazards due to a changing climate varied according to household wealth and well-being status, with very poor and poor households more vulnerable than medium and well-off households. The research indicates that the climate change adaptation would benefit by considering: (i) differential impacts of vulnerability mainly based on well-being status of households; (ii) understanding of the local socio-political context and underlying causes of vulnerability and its application; and (iii) identifying vulnerable populations for the units of vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning.  相似文献   

18.
In Jakarta, climate change has been detected through rising air temperatures, increased intensity of rainfall in the wet season, and sea level rise. The coupling of such changes with local anthropogenic driven modifications in the environmental setting could contribute to an increased probability of flooding, due to increase in both extreme river discharge and sedimentation (as a result of erosion in the watersheds above Jakarta and as indicated by sediment yield in the downstream area). In order to respond to the observed and projected changes in river discharge and sediment yield, and their secondary impacts, adaptation strategies are required. A possible adaptation strategy is through policy making in the field of spatial planning. For example, in Indonesia, presidential regulation number 54 year 2008 (Peraturan Presiden Nomor 54 Tahun 2008—Perpres 54/2008) was issued as a reference for the implementation of water and soil conservation. This paper assesses the impact of climate and land cover change on river discharge and sediment yield, as well as the effects of Perpres 54/2008 on that river discharge and sediment yield. The spatial water balance model Spatial Tools for River Basins and Environmental and Analysis of Management Option was used for the runoff computations, whilst the Spatial Decision Assistance of Watershed Sedimentation model was used to simulate erosion, Sediment Delivery Ratio, and sediment yield. The computation period is from January 1901 to December 2005, at the scale of the following watersheds: Ciujung, Cisadane, Ciliwung, and Citarum. During the twentieth century, computed average discharge in the downstream area (near Jakarta) increased between 2.5 and 35 m3/s/month, and sediment yield increased between 1 × 103 and 42 × 103 tons/year. These changes were caused by changes in both land cover and climate, with the former playing a stronger role. Based on a computation under a theoretical full implementation of the spatial plan proposed by Perpres 54/2008, river discharge would decrease by up to 5 % in the Ciliwung watershed and 26 % in the Cisadane watershed. The implementation of Perpres 54/2008 could also decrease the sediment yield, by up to 61 and 22 % in the Ciliwung and Cisadane watersheds, respectively. These findings show that the implementation of the spatial plan of Perpres 54/2008 could significantly improve watershed response to runoff and erosion. This study may serve as a tool for assessing the reduction in climate change impacts and evaluating the role of spatial planning for adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

19.

It is axiomatically true that urbanization in India's metropolises and large cities has been exacerbated since the beginning of the millennium, consuming the natural and semi-natural ecosystem on the outskirts of the city, resulting in a zone with a distinct climate known as urban climate. Such a climate—the result of a built-up environment is distinctly different from the natural climate as the paved surface and concrete skyscrapers not only destroy the natural ecosystem, it peculiarly induce a different kind of insolation, cooling and air drainage were lacking in green space, water bodies and open space cannot accommodate with environmental rhythm properly, resulting into the accumulation of heat, ecological derangement of subsurface soil which can easily be predicted by GIS analysis. This paper is an attempt to measure urban growth and its impact on the environment in the metropolitan city Kolkata. The use of satellite data and GIS techniques to detect urban expansion is a highly scientific strategy. Using geospatial techniques, the current study attempts to examine major urban changes in Kolkata and its surroundings from 1988 to 2021. Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI temporal data are used to identify land-use change through unsupervised classification; Spectral Radiance Model and Split Window Algorithm method are used for identifying land surface temperature change. SRTM DEM (30 m) has been used to identify flood risk zones and several spectral indices like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index are a further extension for environmental assessment. By all such suitable methods, a clearer change in an urban environment is detected within the period of 33 years (1988–2021). The result shows that the population changes, vegetation cover and built-up area, and accessibility are at a rapid rate. These changes are causing major environmental degradation in the city. The classification result indicates that appropriate land use planning and environmental monitoring are required for the long-term exploitation of these resources.

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20.
Climate change is allowing fire to expand into previously unburnt ecosystems and regions. While management policies such as fire suppression have significantly altered their frequency and intensity. To prevent future biodiversity/ecosystem services loss, and the large financial burden of wildfires, management plans will be required to adapt to future climate and land use changes. Long-term ecological data offer a unique perspective to assess fire variability under different climate and land-use conditions. In this study, we focus on Killarney National Park, Ireland. An area which today is under threat from an increase in fire activity. Comparing palaeoecological and archaeological records, we reconstruct the past fire dynamic and its impact on the landscape, and evaluate the role of climate vs humans in influencing the natural fire regime over the millennial time-scale. Our results indicate that fire has been present in the landscape since the beginning of the Holocene, with fire in the early Holocene being largely controlled by climate and microsite conditions, and in the late Holocene being increasingly influenced by human activity. The knowledge of past fire regimes can help inform future management in order to protect the semi-natural native woodland. The park's present landscape mosaic, could be preserved by limiting forest encroachment through moderate grazing and burning, while also protecting any fragmented forest from excessive grazing and large/intense fires, via traditional fire management strategies such as fuel load management. However, a fire management strategy should only be implemented following careful consideration of all ecosystem factors and controls.  相似文献   

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