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1.
This paper presents an advanced constitutive model for unsaturated soils, using Bishop’s effective stress (σ′) and the effective degree of saturation (Se) as two fundamental constitutive variables in the proposed constitutive model. A sub-loading surface and a unified hardening parameter (H) are introduced into the σ′–Se modelling framework to interpret the effects of initial density on coupled hydro-mechanical behaviour of compacted soils. Compared with existing models in the literature, the main advantage of the proposed model that it is capable of modelling hydro-mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soils compacted to different initial densities, such as the dependence of loading–collapse volume on initial void ratio and density effect on the shearing-induced saturation change. The proposed model requires 13 material parameters, all of which can be calibrated through conventional laboratory tests. Numerical studies are conducted to assess the performance of the model for a hypothetical soil under two typical hydro-mechanical loading scenarios. The proposed advanced unsaturated soil model is then validated against a number of experimental results for both isotropic and triaxial conditions reported in the literature.  相似文献   

2.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2003,22(5-7):453-473
Lateglacial and early Holocene (ca 14–9000 14C yr BP; 15–10,000 cal yr BP) pollen records are used to make vegetation and climate reconstructions that are the basis for inferring mechanisms of past climate change and for validating palaeoclimate model simulations. Therefore, it is important that reconstructions from pollen data are realistic and reliable. Two examples of the need for independent validation of pollen interpretations are considered here. First, Lateglacial-interstadial Betula pollen records in northern Scotland and western Norway have been interpreted frequently as reflecting the presence of tree-birch that has strongly influenced the resulting climate reconstructions. However, no associated tree-birch macrofossils have been found so far, and the local dwarf-shrub or open vegetation reconstructed from macrofossil evidence indicates climates too cold for tree-birch establishment. The low local pollen production resulted in the misleadingly high percentage representation of long-distance tree-birch pollen. Second, in the Minnesotan Lateglacial Picea zone, low pollen percentages from thermophilous deciduous trees could derive either from local occurrences of the tree taxa in the Picea/Larix forest or from long-distance dispersal from areas further south. The regionally consistent occurrence of low pollen percentages, even in sites with local tundra vegetation, and the lack of any corresponding macrofossil records support the hypothesis that the trees were not locally present. Macrofossils in the Picea zone represent tundra vegetation or Picea/Larix forest associated with typically boreal taxa, suggesting it was too cold for most thermophilous deciduous trees to grow. Any long-distance tree pollen is not masked by the low pollen production of tundra and Picea and Larix and therefore it is registered relatively strongly in the percentage pollen spectra.Many Lateglacial pollen assemblages have no recognisable modern analogues and contain high representations of well-dispersed ‘indicator’ taxa such as Betula or Artemisia. The spectra could have been derived from vegetation types that do not occur today, perhaps responding to the different climate that resulted from the different balance of climate forcing functions then. However, the available contemporaneous plant-macrofossil assemblages can be readily interpreted in terms of modern vegetation communities, suggesting that the pollen assemblages could have been influenced by mixing of locally produced pollen with long-distance pollen from remote vegetation types that are then over-represented in situations with low local pollen production. In such situations, it is important to validate the climate reconstructions made from the pollen data with a macrofossil record.  相似文献   

3.
未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究进展   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10  
概述未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究的主要进展。首先,对用于开展气候变化预估研究的不同复杂程度的气候系统及地球系统模式及其模拟能力进行了简要的介绍,指出虽然目前气候系统模式在很多方面存在着较大的不确定性,但大体说来可提供当前气候状况的可信模拟结果;进而介绍了IPCC不同的排放情景,以及不同排放情景下全球与东亚区域气候变化预估的主要结果。研究表明,尽管不同模式对不同情景下未来气候变化预估的结果存有差异,但对未来50～100年全球气候变化的模拟大体一致,即全球将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加。在此基础上,概述了全球气候模式模拟结果的区域化技术,并重点介绍了降尺度方法的分类与应用。同时对气候变化预估的不确定性进行了讨论。最后,对气候变化预估的研究前景进行了展望,并讨论了未来我国气候变化预估研究的重点发展方向。  相似文献   

4.
The potential impact of climate change on Astragalus gossypinus in Central Iran based on grid map 2.5 arc min was analyzed. A stratified sampling was applied through a geographic information system to pick up 587 sample sites (prevalence 0.39). For each sampling site, the presence or absence of given species together with environmental variables was recorded. Two novel statistical techniques, logistic regression tree (LRT) and nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR), were used to examine environmental variables related to the current species distribution. Using these models, maps of current potential distribution and potential distribution for a climatic change scenario (2CO2) were generated. Both statistical techniques produced strong and useful models, but NPMR identified a much smaller subset of relevant predictor variables. The model demonstrated that the occurrence of A. gossypinus is highly probable when the precipitation of the wettest month is between 30 and 50 mm and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter is between ?2 and +4 °C, but much lower outside this range. Under double-CO2 climatic scenario, predicting a moister and slightly warmer climate in Central Iran, A. gossypinus is expected to move north-eastwards with a decreasing area of distribution.  相似文献   

5.
A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km2 Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.  相似文献   

6.
The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).  相似文献   

7.
The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and macrocirculation patterns (CPs) on local precipitation are examined and analyzed here under climate change conditions. First the relationship between the input and output variables under present conditions is established using two models, a fuzzy rule-based model (FRBM) and a multivariate linear regression model (MLRM), then this historical relationship is extended under climate change conditions. The input variables for these models consist of lagged ENSO-data (represented by the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) and 500 hPa height data clustered into macrocirculation patterns over the western United States, while the output is an estimate of monthly local precipitation at selected Arizona stations. To overcome the lack of SOI data under climate change, several scenarios are constructed by perturbing the historical SOI data in a design of experiments framework. The results of the experimental design show that, in general, the precipitation amount seems to decrease under climate change. While the stations and months have differences, as expected, the perturbed scenarios do not show significant differences.  相似文献   

8.
We use a series of tests to evaluate two competing hypotheses about the association of climate and vegetation trends in the northeastern United States over the past 15 kyrs. First, that abrupt climate changes on the scale of centuries had little influence on long-term vegetation trends, and second, that abrupt climate changes interacted with slower climate trends to determine the regional sequence of vegetation phases. Our results support the second. Large dissimilarity between temporally close fossil pollen samples indicates large vegetation changes within 500 years across >4° of latitude at ca 13.25–12.75, 12.0–11.5, 10.5, 8.25, and 5.25 ka. The evidence of vegetation change coincides with independent isotopic and sedimentary indicators of rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance. In several cases, abrupt changes reversed long-term vegetation trends, such as when spruce (Picea) and pine (Pinus) pollen percentages rapidly declined to the north and increased to the south at ca 13.25–12.75 and 8.25 ka respectively. Abrupt events accelerated other long-term trends, such as a regional increase in beech (Fagus) pollen percentages at 8.5–8.0 ka. The regional hemlock (Tsuga) decline at ca 5.25 ka is unique among the abrupt events, and may have been induced by high climatic variability (i.e., repeated severe droughts from 5.7 to 2.0 ka); autoregressive ecological and evolutionary processes could have maintained low hemlock abundance until ca 2.0 ka. Delayed increases in chestnut (Castanea) pollen abundance after 5.8 and 2.5 ka also illustrate the potential for multi-century climate variability to influence species' recruitment as well as mortality. Future climate changes will probably also rapidly initiate persistent vegetation change, particularly by acting as broad, regional-scale disturbances.  相似文献   

9.
The paper presents a methodology on how to consistently deal with the future change and management options in integrated water resources management (IWRM). It is based on a conceptual framework with a five step procedure for the formulation and analysis of a so-called ‘parameterised regional futures’. Developing and testing the approach for IWRM is realised for the upper part of the Western Bug River catchment (Ukraine). Special attention is paid to scenarios of change covering climate and land use. The future regional climate is downscaled with the model CCLM. Land cover is projected after retrospective change detection and the derivation of prospective algorithms. Parameters of the interrelations between land use and the water cycle are tackled through using the concept of the model PWF-LU. The methodology is currently being tested to analyse the impacts of mid-term regional change and management options on the water cycle of the catchment.  相似文献   

10.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(6-7):535-543
The credibility of models simulating climate change over different continental regions is based upon analysis of the dispersion of results of simulation ensembles. This analysis, associated to the analysis of model biases, shows that there is no systematic link between these biases and the simulated climate changes. The reduction of uncertainties on the scales of different regions implies a better definition of anthropogenic emission scenarios and the development of regional climate models. Climate change detection on regional scales appears to be a promising way of reinforcing the reliability of these models and scenarios. To cite this article: S. Planton, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).  相似文献   

11.
A method for predicting the impact of climate change on slope stability   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
 A major effect of man-induced climate change could be a generally higher frequency and magnitude of extreme climatological events in Europe. Consequently, the frequency of rainfall-triggered landslides could increase. However, assessment of the impact of climate change on landsliding is difficult, because on a regional scale, climate change will vary strongly, and even the sign of change can be opposite. Furthermore, different types of landslides are triggered by different mechanisms. A potential method for predicting climate change impact on landsliding is to link slope models to climate scenarios obtained through downscaling General Circulation Models (GCM). Methodologies, possibilities and problems are discussed, as well as some tentative results for a test site in South-East France. Received: 25 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997  相似文献   

12.
Climate change, particularly due to the changed precipitation trend, can have a severe impact on soil erosion. The effect is more pronounced on the higher slopes of the Himalayan region. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change on soil erosion in a watershed of the Himalayan region using RUSLE model. The GCM (general circulation model) derived emission scenarios (HadCM3 A2a and B2a SRES) were used for climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the precipitation for three future periods, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099, at large scale. Rainfall erosivity (R) was calculated for future periods using the SDSM downscaled precipitation data. ASTER digital elevation model (DEM) and Indian Remote Sensing data – IRS LISS IV satellite data were used to generate the spatial input parameters required by RUSLE model. A digital soil-landscape map was prepared to generate spatially distributed soil erodibility (K) factor map of the watershed. Topographic factors, slope length (L) and steepness (S) were derived from DEM. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the satellite data was used to represent spatial variation vegetation density and condition under various land use/land cover. This variation was used to represent spatial vegetation cover factor. Analysis revealed that the average annual soil loss may increase by 28.38, 25.64 and 20.33% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively under A2 scenario, while under B2 scenario, it may increase by 27.06, 25.31 and 23.38% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, from the base period (1985–2013). The study provides a comprehensive understanding of the possible future scenario of soil erosion in the mid-Himalaya for scientists and policy makers.  相似文献   

13.
Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.  相似文献   

14.
《Applied Geochemistry》1999,14(2):147-158
This study evaluates several southern Appalachian Piedmont mining districts for Hg contamination in surface waters and determines potential relationships between Hg discharged from historical mining operations and site-specific physical factors. Water samples were collected from 3 fluvial systems that drain areas where Hg was used to amalgamate Au from ore during the 19th century. Each of the fluvial systems exhibit similar physical characteristics such as climate, vegetation, and rock type. Total Hg (HgT) determinations were made using cold vapour atomic fluorescence spectroscopy techniques. Concentrations of HgT in the southern Appalachian Piedmont range from 1–3 ng l−1 in waters of the Arbacoochee, Alabama, and South Mountains, North Carolina, Mining Districts to 13 ng l−1 in waters of the Dahlonega Mining District in Georgia. The correlation between HgT and total suspended solids (TSS) at the southern Appalachian sites was good with a coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.82. A clear trend between environmentally-available Fe (FeE) and HgT (r2=0.86) was also evident. The correlation between HgT and FeE most likely reflects similarities in the mechanisms that control the aqueous concentrations of both metals (i.e., the particle-reactive nature of the two elements), allowing for the sorption of Hg onto Fe-oxyhydroxides. Hence, increased loads of TSS from erosional events are probably responsible for higher stream water HgT concentrations. Vegetation at these sites, which is heavy due to the warm, humid climate of the SE, may help reduce the total amount of Hg released from contaminated mining sites to the rivers by controlling erosion, hence, decreasing the input of contaminated particles into streams and rivers.These southern Appalachian mining sites used Hg amalgamation techniques similar to those used in other precious metals mining districts, such as the highly contaminated Comstock Au–Ag district in Nevada, yet HgT concentrations are orders of magnitude lower; This difference in concentration between the southern Appalachian districts and the Comstock district may correlate to the relative amounts of Hg that were used in each. However, other variables were evaluated to determine if physio-chemical differences such as climate could influence HgT concentrations in surface waters of the two areas.  相似文献   

15.
In arid and semi-arid zones,water is the most vulnerable resource to climate change.In fact,various techniques such as artificial recharge are adopted to restore aquifers and to ensure aquifer sustainability in relation to the accelerated pace of exploitation.Morocco is a Mediterranean country highly vulnerable to climate change,many of its main aquifers are subjected to excessive drawdowns.This technique is practiced to increase potentiality of these aquifers.In the Northwestern area of Morocco,the significant development experienced by Tangier City in the industrial,tourism,and commercial sectors will lead to increased water requirements-up to 5 067 L/s(159.8 mm^3)by 2030.However,the Charf El Akab aquifer system,subject to artificial recharge,is the only groundwater resource of Tangier region;hence,a rational management context is needed to ensure aquifer sustainability,and optimized exploitation under the background of differing constraints,such as increased water requirements,and climate change impacts.This work aims to respond,for the first time,to the Charf El Akab aquifer overexploitation problem,and to evaluate the future scenarios of its exploitation in the event of failure of one of the superficial resources.This work also presents a synthesized hydrodynamic modeling based on the results of the numerical simulations carried out using Feflow software for 2004(date of cessation of injections)and 2011(date of resumption of these facilities),making it possible to evaluate the impact of the artificial recharge on the piezometric level of the aquifer on a spatiotemporal scale.Finally,the exploitation scenarios have shown that the aquifer of Charf El Akab will not adequatly provide for the region's water requirements on the future horizon,entailing an optimal management of water resources in the region and an intentionally increased recharge rate.  相似文献   

16.
In arid and semi-arid zones, water is the most vulnerable resource to climate change. In fact, various techniques such as artificial recharge are adopted to restore aquifers and to ensure aquifer sustainability in relation to the accelerated pace of exploitation. Morocco is a Mediterranean country highly vulnerable to climate change, many of its main aquifers are subjected to excessive drawdowns. This technique is practiced to increase potentiality of these aquifers. In the Northwestern area of Morocco, the significant development experienced by Tangier City in the industrial, tourism, and commercial sectors will lead to increased water requirements-up to 5 067 L/s (159.8 mm3) by 2030. However, the Charf El Akab aquifer system, subject to artificial recharge, is the only groundwater resource of Tangier region; hence, a rational management context is needed to ensure aquifer sustainability, and optimized exploitation under the background of differing constraints, such as increased water requirements, and climate change impacts. This work aims to respond, for the first time, to the Charf El Akab aquifer overexploitation problem, and to evaluate the future scenarios of its exploitation in the event of failure of one of the superficial resources. This work also presents a synthesized hydrodynamic modeling based on the results of the numerical simulations carried out using Feflow software for 2004 (date of cessation of injections) and 2011 (date of resumption of these facilities), making it possible to evaluate the impact of the artificial recharge on the piezometric level of the aquifer on a spatiotemporal scale. Finally, the exploitation scenarios have shown that the aquifer of Charf El Akab will not adequatly provide for the region's water requirements on the future horizon, entailing an optimal management of water resources in the region and an intentionally increased recharge rate.  相似文献   

17.
Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coastal systems faced with deteriorating habitat, accelerated sea level rise, and changes in precipitation and storm patterns.  相似文献   

18.
Jiang  Xinyu  Mori  Nobuhito  Tatano  Hirokazu  Yang  Lijiao  Shibutani  Yoko 《Natural Hazards》2015,84(1):35-49

This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.

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19.
This paper describes the scaling up to a day scale of the Ryel hour scale model incorporating the process of hydraulic redistribution (HR). The Ryel model was applied to the Inner Mongolia Huangfuchuan basins to analyze transpiration, evaporation and stomatal conductance of Artemisia tridentate, and to indicate the added value of the feedback by comparing simulations with and without incorporating HR. Five climate scenarios were designed based on 40-y continuous climate data from the study area and the response of HR to the different climate scenarios was modeled. Under 1991 climate conditions, cumulative transpiration and evaporation with HR during the growing season were 161.7 mm and 206.14 mm, respectively, compared with transpiration of 140.7 mm and evaporation of 174.2 mm without HR. Under the five different climate change scenarios, HR influenced evaporation more than transpiration. The effect of HR on transpiration, evaporation and stomatal conductance was very different among the scenarios. Inclusion of HR gave rise to the largest increase in transpiration and evaporation under the T2P0 scenario and the smallest under the T2P2 scenario, but transpiration and evaporation decreased under the T0P-2 scenario. Stomatal conductance significantly increased with the inclusion of HR. The model used in this study has potential benefits for incorporating HR into soil processes, such as water movement and mass transfer.  相似文献   

20.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(1-2):193-202
At the planetary scale, the models consistently simulate an intensification of the hydrological cycle in a future climate, warmer than the present-day one. However, this intensification might be accompanied by its slowing down due to an increase of the residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere. The impact of climate change on extreme events is even more difficult to evaluate, as results are dependent on methods, emission scenarios and, above all, on models. However, the increase of extreme winter precipitation over northern Europe is a common feature of these evaluations. The hydrological cycle, through the geographical distribution of continental surface humidity, seems to play a key role on the possibility to detect the warming in France. To cite this article: S. Planton et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

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