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1.
CHENG Jia  XU Xi-wei 《地震地质》2018,40(1):133-154
Since 1997, several major earthquakes occurred around the Bayan Har block in the Tibetan plateau, providing an opportunity to further understanding the mechanism of intraplate earthquakes. What is the effect of interactions among these events on the earthquake occurrence pattern is an issue to be addressed. In this article, we use the visco-elastic Coulomb stress changes model to calculate the stress interactions among the historical events close to or large than MS7.0 since 1893 in the Bayan Har block. We apply the relationships between the slip rate and stress accumulation rate to transform the Coulomb stress changes into the influenced time. Then we remove such influence time from the occurrence years, and analyze the effects of the earthquake interactions on the clustering patterns of the historical earthquakes in the Bayan Har block. The results show that the major earthquakes in the Bayan Har block are characterized by a quasi-period of about 16 years from 1893 to 1973 and a clustering occurrence time period from 1997 to present following a relatively long quiescence period. The Bayan Har block is still in the active period with high probabilities of major quakes. We calculate the conditional probabilities of the rupture segments that did not rupture since 1893 of the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block in the next 30 years. The following faults or fault sections seem to be of major risk:The Maqin segment and the Maqu fault of the East Kunlun fault zone, the Awanang fault, the Luocha segment of the Tazhong fault, the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault, and the Dangjiang fault. Other Fault segments in the Bayan Har block without seismic events since 1893 probably also have hazard of MS7 earthquakes in the future.  相似文献   

2.
On 8 August 8 2017, an MS7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province. Field geological investigations did not find any co-seismic surface rupture in the epicenter area, implying that the seismogenic structure is likely a hidden active fault. Based on the results of the relocated aftershocks, the seismogenic fault was simulated and characterized using the SKUA-GOCAD software. The three-dimensional model of the seismogenic fault was preliminarily constructed, which shows that the main shock of the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake occurred at the sharp bending area of the fault surface, similar to the geometry of the active fault that generated several major earthquakes in the Songpan area during 1973-1976. Our study suggests that high seismicity of this area may be closely related to the inhomogeneous geometry of the fault surface. In this work, we collected the historical earthquakes of M ≥ 6.5, and analyzed the geometric and kinematic features of the active faults in the study area. A three-dimensional fault model for the 10 main active faults was constructed, and its limitation in fault modeling was discussed. It could provide evidence for analyzing the seismotectonics of historical earthquakes, exploring the relationships between earthquakes and active faults, and predicting major earthquakes in the future.  相似文献   

3.
利用双差定位方法对玉树地震序列2010年4月14日至10月31日间发生的ML≥1.0地震进行双差定位,得到1545个地震的重定位结果.综合分析地震双差定位结果和玉树地震序列中强地震震源机制解,发现玉树MS7.3地震发震构造由北西向和北东东向两条相交断层组成,主震发生在北西走向的甘孜—玉树断裂带上,5月29日的MS5.9余震序列发生在北东东走向的一条隐伏断裂上,两条断裂均接近直立.甘孜—玉树断裂是羌塘地块和巴彦喀拉地块的构造边界,由于羌塘地块和巴颜喀拉地块的差异运动使甘孜—玉树断裂强耦合段应力高度积累,在应变能超过岩石强度时破裂失稳发生了MS7.3地震.主震断层的左旋滑动导致北东东向断层的正应力减小,库伦应力增加,45天后触发了MS5.9余震序列的活动.  相似文献   

4.
基于新疆区域数字地震台网震相观测报告,采用双差定位方法对2011—2014年阿尔金断裂带西南端NE向张性剪切段附近的3次于田MS≥5.0地震序列进行了重定位,并对其余震分布及发震构造等进行了分析. 结果表明: 2011年于田MS5.5地震的发震构造为阿尔金断裂,该地震同时触发了阿尔金山前普鲁断裂的中小震活动,地震序列呈近NS向长条带状分布; 2012年于田MS6.2地震序列沿NNE向分布,发震构造为苦牙克断裂; 2014年于田MS7.3地震序列沿NE和NNE方向展布,其中NE走向的余震序列沿阿尔金断裂走向有3处余震丛集分布,由此推测该余震低活动区是由于断层内存在一较大凹凸体,终止了破裂的传播所致,发震构造为阿什库勒断裂和苦牙克断裂. 此外,地震序列截面特征显示,2011—2014年3次于田MS≥5.0地震序列基本贯通了阿尔金断裂带西南端的次级断裂和普鲁断裂.   相似文献   

5.
The Xianshuihe Fault, the boundary of Bayan Har active tectonic block and Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block, is one of the most active fault zones in the world. In the past nearly 300 years, 9 historical earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 7 have been recorded. Since 2008, several catastrophic earthquakes, such as Wenchuan MS8 earthquake, Yushu MS7.1 earthquake and Lushan MS7 earthquake, have occurred on the other Bayan Har block boundary fault zones. However, only the Kangding MS6.3 earthquake in 2014 was documented on the Xianshuihe Fault. Thus, the study of surface deformation and rupture behavior of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary on the Xianshuihe Fault is of fundamental importance for understanding the future seismic risk of this fault, and even the entire western Sichuan region. On the basis of the former work, combined with our detailed geomorphic and geological survey, we excavated a combined trench on the Qianning segment of Xianshuihe fault zone which has a long elapse time. Charcoal and woods in the trench are abundant. 30 samples were dated to constrain the ages of the paleoseismic events. Five events were identified in the past 9  000 years, whose ages are:8070-6395 BC, 5445-5125 BC, 4355-4180 BC, 625-1240 AD and the Qianning earthquake in 1893. The large earthquake recurrence behavior on this segment does not follow the characteristic earthquake recurrence model. The recurrence interval is 1000~2000 years in early period and in turn there is a quiet period of about 5 000 years after 4355-4180 BC event. Then it enters the active period again. Two earthquakes with surface rupture occurred in the past 1000 years and the latest two earthquakes may have lower magnitude. The left-lateral coseismic displacement of the 1893 Qianning earthquake is about 2.9m.  相似文献   

6.
以2014年四川康定MS6.3和MS5.8地震为研究对象,计算了2次主震在近场和周围断层造成的库仑破裂应力变化,研究主震与余震的触发关系,以及2次主震对周围断层施加的应力负荷作用。结果表明:2次主震的共同作用控制了后续地震活动的演化趋势,其中康定MS6.3地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化对后续余震事件的触发占主导作用。鲜水河断裂带南段和安宁河断裂带受到了一定的应力加载作用,未来地震活动的趋势可能会加强。  相似文献   

7.
At 3:05, September 4, 2017, an ML4.4 earthquake occurred in Lincheng County, Xingtai City, Hebei Province, which was felt obviously by surrounding areas. Approximately 60km away from the hypocenter of Xingtai MS7.2 earthquake in 1966, this event is the most noticeable earthquake in this area in recent years. On the one hand, people are still shocked by the 1966 Xingtai earthquake that caused huge disaster, on the other hand, Lincheng County is lack of strong earthquakes. Therefore, this quake has aroused widespread concerns by the government, society and seismologists. It is necessary to clarify whether the seismogenic structure of this event is consistent with the previous seismicity and whether it has any new implications for the seismic activity and seismic hazard in this region. Therefore, it is of great significance to study its seismogenic mechanism for understanding the earthquake activity in Xingtai region where a MS7.2 earthquake had occurred in 1966. In this study, the Lincheng earthquake and its aftershocks are relocated using the multi-step locating method, and the focal mechanism and focal depth are determined by the "generalized Cut and Paste"(gCAP)method. The reliability of the results is analyzed based on the data of Hebei regional seismic network. In order to better constrain the focal depth, the depth phase sPL fitting method is applied to the relocation of focal depth. The inversion and constraint results show that aftershocks are mainly distributed along NE direction and dip to SE direction as revealed by depth profiles. Focal depths of aftershocks are concentrated in the depths of 6.5~8.2km with an average of about 7km. The best double-couple solution of the mainshock is 276°, 69° and -40° for strike, dip and slip angle for nodal plane I and 23°, 53° and -153° for nodal plane Ⅱ, respectively, revealing that it is a strike-slip event with a small amount of normal-fault component. The initial rupture depth of mainshock is about 7.5km obtained by the relocation while the centroid depth is 6km derived from gCAP method which was also verified by the seismic depth phase sPL observed by several stations, indicating the earthquake is ruptured from deep to shallow. Combined with the research results on regional geological structure and the seismic sequence relocation results, it is concluded that the nodal plane Ⅱ is the seismogenic fault plane of this earthquake. There are several active faults around the hypocenter of Lincheng earthquake sequence, however, none of the known faults on the current understanding is completely consistent with the seismogenic fault. To determine the seismogenic mechanism, the lucubrated research of the MS7.2 Xingtai earthquake in 1966 could provide a powerful reference. The seismic tectonic characteristics of the 1966 Xingtai earthquake sequence could be summarized as follows:There are tensional fault in the shallow crust and steep dip hidden fault in the middle and lower crust, however, the two faults are not connected but separated by the shear slip surfaces which are widely distributed in the middle crust; the seismic source is located between the hidden fault in the lower crust and the extensional fault in the upper crust; the earthquake began to rupture in the deep dip fault in the mid-lower crust and then ruptured upward to the extensional fault in the shallow crust, and the two fault systems were broken successively. From the earthquake rupture revealed by the seismic sequence location, the Lincheng earthquake also has the semblable feature of rupturing from deep to shallow. However, due to the much smaller magnitude of this event than that of the 1966 earthquake, the accumulated stress was not high enough to tear the fracture of the detachment surface whose existence in Lincheng region was confirmed clearly by the results of Lincheng-Julu deep reflection seismology and reach to the shallower fault. Therefore, by the revelation of the seismogenic mechanism of the 1966 Xingtai earthquake, the seismogenic fault of Lincheng earthquake is presumed to be a concealed fault possessing a potential of both strike-slip and small normal faulting component and located below the detachment surface in Lincheng area. The tectonic significance indicated by this earthquake is that the event was a stress adjustment of the deep fault and did not lead to the rupture of the shallow fault. Therefore, this area still has potential seismic hazard to a certain extent.  相似文献   

8.
通过对荣县MS4.9地震震中及附近地区地震监测、地震地质、地震活动背景和区域地震活动性的分析表明,荣县MS4.9地震震前经历了区域地震平静至活跃、再发震的过程,该序列为正常的震群型,震中区及其附近的华蓥山断裂地震带和马边地震带的震后地震学参数均正常。荣县MS4.9地震发震断裂为荣县-威远基底断裂,华蓥山断裂带及其附近地区2018年开始的5—6级地震活跃与川西地区东昆仑断裂带2017年8月九寨沟MS7.0强震的发生存在呼应关系。   相似文献   

9.
2021年5月22日青海玛多发生MS7.4地震,震源断层错动在地表形成了长达160 km的同震地表破裂。可靠的地震地表破裂带参数是研究震源断层活动机制和评价地震危险性的重要基础。采用无人机倾斜摄影测量技术可以获得高精度的点云数据并产出DOM和DEM数据。通过跨破裂带的地形测量,获取了玛多MS7.4地震同震地表变形的垂直位移、水平缩短量和水平拉张量等参数。测量结果显示,玛多MS7.4地震发震断层在不同破裂段具有不同性质和大小的倾滑分量,其中具有压扭性质的野马滩观测点断层垂直位移为0.69~1.01 m,倾向水平缩短量为0.17~0.41 m,倾滑位移为0.71~1.09 m;具有张扭性质的朗玛加合日段断层垂直位移为0.34~0.54 m,倾向水平拉张量为1.99~2.08 m。  相似文献   

10.
安宁河—则木河断裂带及东侧的大凉山断裂带作为大凉山次级块体西侧与东侧边界,具有发生大地震的活动构造背景.本文意在用有限的形变数据和地震数据两种资料评估大凉山次级块体边界断裂带的孕震深度及其地震危险性.采用弹性半空间模型对安宁河断裂、则木河断裂和大凉山断裂带滑动速率和闭锁深度进行了详细分析;计算了90%、95%和99%不同分位数的小震深度下界值并与GPS得到的闭锁深度进行对比,分析二者异同点.结果显示,安宁河断裂北段闭锁深度为6.2 km,不到90%分位小震震源深度16 km的一半,表明该段在1952年MS63/4地震后,断层逐渐趋于闭锁;而在6~16 km深度主要以小地震和无震滑动两种形式释放能量,存在深部蠕滑运动.大凉山断裂北段在0~10 km范围内完全闭锁,而10~25 km闭锁程度较弱.安宁河断裂南段、则木河断裂、大凉山断裂中段和南段均处于完全闭锁阶段,闭锁深度接近90%分位数小震深度的下界值,标准差约为0.94 km.此外,A、B、C三个剖面的反演结果表明大凉山次级块体的运动自北向南具有顺时针旋转特性,与川滇块体顺时针运动特征吻合.大凉山次级块体北、中、南三段边界断裂及块体内部总的滑动速率分别为9.8 mm·a-1、8.9 mm·a-1和8.4 mm·a-1,呈自北向南递减趋势.大凉山断裂南段布拖断裂和交际河断裂积累的能量分别能够发生一次矩震级为MW7.5的地震,离逝时间已经接近地震平均复发间隔,未来100年大地震的发震概率分别为7.1%和5.9%,应对其地震危险性给予重视.  相似文献   

11.
2014年11月22日16时55分在四川省甘孜藏族自治州康定县发生的6.3级地震,结束了鲜水河断裂带近30多年以来没有较大地震发生的历史,其潜在的地震危险性再次引起国内外地学工作者的关注.为了研究鲜水河断裂带南东段深部孕震环境和探求康定MS6.3地震的成因,本文先利用四川区域数字地震台网和康定地区及周边所布设的流动地震台阵在2009年1月1日至2014年12月5日期间所记录到7397次区域地震事件的99287条P波到时资料,反演得到了鲜水河断裂带南东段上地壳范围内不同深度的三维P波速度结构特征;再对康定震区及周边的重力、航磁数据进行视密度、视磁化强度反演,得到了壳内不同深度密度的横向变化信息和视磁化强度的分布特征;在此基础上综合研究鲜水河断裂带南东段的深部孕震环境.研究结果表明,雅江—九龙一带的低速区与泸定—宝兴高速区的速度结构特征表明了鲜水河断裂带南东段两侧壳内物质存在显著的横向介质差异,康定MS6.3地震发生在该高低速异常区的分界线上;结合康定MS6.3地震的1028个余震序列的精确定位结果可以看出,重新定位后的余震沿着鲜水河断裂带南东段呈条带状分布,且震源深度优势分布层位深度为8~15km,该余震序列的空间分布特征与鲜水河断裂南东段的深部介质条件密切相关.鲜水河断裂带南东段特有的视密度和视磁化强度异常分布特征反映了康定地区东西两侧块体的基底性质存在明显差异,康定—石棉及其以东地区所表现出的磁异常高和重力高的位场特征,反映该区域由强磁性、高密度物质组成,而康定MS6.3地震就发生在康定—石棉重力梯度变化带上、雅安—泸定磁性穹窿区的西边界线上.随着川青块体向南东方向滑移,受到四川盆地西缘边界刚性基底对川青块体的强烈阻挡,加剧了康定—石棉及其以东地区基底岩层的褶皱变形并产生了强烈的应力积累,所积累的应力突然释放导致了康定MS6.3地震的发生,这正是此次鲜水河断裂带南东段康定地区强震孕育和发生的深部构造环境和介质特征.根据本文对鲜水河断裂带南东段深部孕震环境的综合研究成果可知,石棉段处于重磁异常梯级带上且其北东侧表现出的高密度、强磁性和高波速等物性特征有利于区域应力的相对集中,因此,鲜水河断裂带南东段石棉地区的地震活动趋势和地震危险性背景值得进一步关注和研究.  相似文献   

12.
本文采用双差定位方法对云南鲁甸MS6.5地震震后16天的地震序列进行重定位研究.重定位结果显示,主震位于27.11°N,103.35°E,震源深度约15 km;地震序列主要呈“L”形优势分布,分为SSE向和近EW向两支,并均呈现近垂直的震源分布特征,显示此次地震为走滑型,并存在两个不同方向的破裂面.虽然此次地震发生于NE向昭通断裂及其反冲断裂(龙树断裂、大岩洞断裂)附近,但这些断裂均为逆冲型断裂,被排除了作为发震断裂的可能性;鲁甸地震发生在呈放射性分布的多条断裂的交汇部位,SSE向破裂分支与包谷垴断裂的方向一致,近EW向破裂分支与小河断裂南端的走向一致. 鲁甸地震可能已将包谷垴断裂和小河断裂在深部贯通.  相似文献   

13.
首先对2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震周边断裂活动和历史地震特征进行了阐述;然后利用黏弹性地壳模型,计算了1933年叠溪地震、1976年松潘震群和2008年汶川地震对2017年九寨沟地震的同震和震后库仑应力作用.该结果显示1933年叠溪地震对九寨沟地震具有延缓作用,而1976年松潘震群和2008年汶川地震对九寨沟地震的黏弹性库仑应力作用为正;随着下地壳和上地幔黏弹性物质的持续作用,前述几次地震总的黏弹性库仑应力在九寨沟地震破裂中心点处负的库仑应力逐渐减弱,而在破裂北段这些库仑应力逐渐转为正值,并促进了九寨沟地震的发生.本文也计算了九寨沟地震后对周边断层的库仑影响,并将此影响值转换为对断层能量积累的影响时间上,结果显示塔藏断裂带西段和中段在内的多条断裂带受到黏弹性库仑应力影响时间值超过10年.将库仑应力影响时间值加入到部分已知离逝时间的断层段上,也得到了这些断层段的未来30年特征地震发生概率.最终结果认为玛沁断裂带、玛曲断裂带、哈南—稻畦子断裂中段和西段等断层段的强震危险性需要重点关注.  相似文献   

14.
缪淼  朱守彪 《地震学报》2013,35(5):619-631
2013年4月20日芦山MS7.0地震发生在龙门山断裂带的西南段,距2008年汶川MS8.0地震仅约85km,时间上仅相隔5年.首先计算了汶川地震的静态库仑应力变化对本次芦山地震的影响,得出芦山地震是由汶川地震触发造成的(库仑应力上升了0.012 MPa);进一步计算了芦山地震与汶川地震这两次大地震共同产生的静态库仑应力变化.结果表明,芦山地震的余震受前面两次大地震的共同影响,而不仅仅是芦山地震单独作用的结果,超过85%的余震发生在两次地震共同产生的静态库仑应力变化增大的地方,而芦山地震本身触发不了本次的余震序列(仅48.7%的余震位于主震所产生的应力加载区).此外,计算结果表明芦山地震本身对周边断层影响较小,仅龙门山断裂带的东北段受到一定的加载作用;而由于汶川地震的作用,安宁河断裂、大凉山断裂、马尔康断裂、岷江断裂和虎牙断裂呈卸载趋势,仅鲜水河断裂东南段和龙门山断裂中段受到加载作用,这均会加速断层上新地震的发生.  相似文献   

15.
Yingjiang area is located in the China-Burma border,the Sudian-Xima arc tectonic belt,which lies in the collision zone between the Indian and Eurasian plates.The Yingjiang earthquake occurring on May 30th,2014 is the only event above MS6.0 in this region since seismicity can be recorded.In this study,we relocated the Yingjiang MS5.6 and MS6.1 earthquake sequences by using the double-difference method.The results show that two main shocks are located in the east of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault,the northern segment of the Sudian-Xima Fault.Compared with the Yingjiang MS5.6 earthquake,the Yingjiang MS6.1 earthquake is nearer to the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault.The aftershocks of the two earthquakes are distributed along the strike direction of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault (NNE).The rupture zone of the main shock of Yingjiang MS6.1 earthquake extends northward approximately 5km.The aftershocks of two earthquakes are mainly located in the eastern side of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault with a significant asymmetry along the fault,which differ from the characteristics of the aftershock distribution of the strike-slip earthquake.It may indicate that the Yingjiang earthquakes are conjugate rupture earthquakes.The non-double-couple components are relatively high in the moment tensor.We speculate that the Yingjiang earthquakes are related to the fractured zone caused by the long-term seismic activity and heat effect in the deep between Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault and its neighboring secondary faults.Aftershock distribution of the Yingjiang MS6.1 earthquake on the southern area crosses a secondary fault on the right of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault,suggesting that the coseismic rupture of the secondary fault may be triggered by the dynamic stress of the main shock.  相似文献   

16.
2014年2月12日新疆于田发生MS7.3地震,该震前1天曾发生MS5.4前震,震后余震活动频繁.截止到2月20日12时,该地震序列记录到4000多次余震,最大余震为2月12日MS5.7地震,序列类型为前震—主震—余震型.该地震前震的b值明显低于该区域正常活动的b值和余震的b值.这次地震位于西昆仑断裂带与阿尔金断裂带的交汇区域的阿什库勒断裂北段,震源机制解为走滑型.余震区NE向长70 km、宽20 km,分为主余震分布区和次余震分布区,其中ML4.0以上强余震基本位于NE向主余震分布区,N--S向的次余震分布区则以ML3.0左右地震分布为主,显示该部分可能受到主震的触发作用.于田地区曾发生的2008年3月21日MS7.3地震的震源机制解为正断型,距这次地震约100 km;2012年8月12日发生的MS6.2地震的震源机制解为正断型,距这次地震约10 km.该地区的发震构造背景是:在NE向阿尔金断裂带尾端向SW方向延伸过程中,左旋走滑作用逐渐转换为拉张作用,形成多条左旋走滑兼具拉张作用的断裂. 2014年于田MS7.3地震的发震模式表现为:左旋走滑的阿什库勒断裂北段与南段因速率差异而产生的小型构造盆地,在区域拉张作用力下顺时针旋转;2008年MS7.3张性地震后区域的伸展作用增强,导致盆地南侧的苦牙克断裂发生2012年MS6.2张性地震,该地震引起2014年MS5.4前震,两者激发其后在盆地北侧阿什库勒断裂发生了2014年MS7.3主震.   相似文献   

17.
基于区域数字地震台网记录,采用HYPODD方法精确定位了2011年9月10日瑞昌—阳新地震序列的震源位置,采用CAP方法反演得到了4.6级主震的震源深度和震源机制解,并结合区域深度震相sPg、PmP和sPmP对主震震源深度进行了进一步确定,随后探讨了这次地震的震源破裂特征和所在区域的强震危险性.结果显示:瑞昌—阳新4.6级地震的震源深度为15±2 km,震源机制解为节面Ⅰ走向30°,倾角86°,滑动角-169°,节面Ⅱ走向299°,倾角79°,滑动角-4°,发震构造为郯城—庐江断裂带往震区延伸隐伏的瑞昌—武穴断裂;本次地震发生在长江中下游断块东部,所在区域的5.5级以上地震具有明显的成组活动特征,近期显著地震集中发生在郯城—庐江断裂带南段及其分支断裂上,地震能量有加速释放的趋势,未来十年左右该区域存在发生6级左右强震的可能性.  相似文献   

18.
本文利用主地震相对定位法,对2017年7月18日—2018年7月15日期间发生在2018年松原MS5.7地震震中附近的地震进行了重新定位,并对松原地震序列进行了分析,得到如下结果:① 松原地震破裂面的走向为SW向,倾角较陡,接近直立,倾向为NW向;② 研究区范围内的地震震源深度大部分比主震浅;③ 主震发生前的地震显示出震源深度逐渐加深的过程,主震发生后,地震的震源深度则逐渐变浅。根据上述结果,结合研究区的地震构造背景及松原地震震源机制解的综合分析结果表明,本次地震的破裂面走向为NE?SW向,其发震断层可能为一条NE?SW向的隐伏断层。   相似文献   

19.
2008年汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响   总被引:10,自引:1,他引:9       下载免费PDF全文
为分析2008年5月12日四川汶川MS8.0级地震对周边断层地震活动的影响,本文首先基于Burgers体黏滞松弛模型计算汶川MS8.0级地震引起的库仑应力动态演化,分析认为2008年汶川MS8.0级地震在周边断层上引起的库仑应力显著增加的主要有四个断层段,分别为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段、青川断裂和龙门山断裂南段.而且震后4年内黏滞松弛引起的库仑应力变化量可能与同震变化相当,相当于再发生一次汶川地震所造成的影响,因此震后效应在分析强震影响时不应忽略.本文基于强震引起的库仑应力变化动态演化,结合背景地震发生率、由Dieterich(1994)模型给出地震发生概率,结合相关构造地质、历史地震、余震活动等方面资料的综合分析认为,上述4个断裂段地震危险性由高到低依次为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段和青川断裂.  相似文献   

20.
基于地壳黏弹模型在GPS观测资料和地震位错数据为约束条件下,应用有限元数值模拟方法对2001年昆仑山8.1级、2008年汶川8.0级和2015年尼泊尔8.1级特大地震引起的地壳形变分布特征进行了模拟计算,获得了地震位移场和形变场.这3次大地震分别发生在青藏高原的北部、东部边界和南部边界,尽管震级大小基本相当,但发震区域和发震断层性质都各不相同,其各自产生的地壳形变场分布特征存在明显的差异,主要表现为形变场区域大小、幅值大小等的差异,以及在不同地壳深度也存在明显的差异,这些差异主要取决于地震断层性质和地下介质结构的不同.通过模拟计算,可以进一步了解大地震产生的应力加卸载区分布特征,对预测未来地震发生区域范围提供重要参考依据.  相似文献   

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