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1.
A real case study for the transformation of Tropical Storm (TS) Haima (2004) into an extratropical cyclone (EC) is carried out numerically since,after landfall,Haima (2004) (as an EC) brought severe weather to a large area (from the south to the north) in China during 13-16 September 2004.With the linear diagnostic model (derived in a previous study) for the tangentially-averaged radial-vertical circulation within vortices moving on the spherical Earth,Haima’s (2004) life cycle is reconstructed noticeably well.Therefore,the major contributor could be identified confidently for Haima’s (2004) extratropical transition based on the diagnostic model outputs.The quantitative comparison shows that up to a 90% contribution to the innerregion updraft and a 55% contribution to the upper-layer outflow come from latent heating during Haima’s (2004) TS stage.Up to a 90% contribution to the inner-region updraft and nearly a 100% contribution to the upper-layer outflow come from the upper-layer eddy angular momentum advection (EAMA) during Haima’s (2004) EC stage.Representing the asymmetric structure of the storm,the predominantly positive contribution of the upper-layer EAMA to Haima’s (2004) transformation is closely associated with the Sshaped westerlies in the upper layer with two jets.One jet in the cyclonic-curvature area carries cyclonic angular momentum into the storm,and the other jet in the anticyclonic-curvature area carries anticyclonic angular momentum out of the storm.Consequently,the newly-increased cyclonic tangential wind is deflected by the Coriolis force to the right to form the upper-layer outflow accompanied by the central-area rising motion,leading to Haima’s (2004) extratropical transition after its landfall. 相似文献
2.
The Madden?CJulian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do interannual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948?C2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880?C2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948?C1972 (3.4?events?year?1) and two regimes of high activity in 1973?C1989 (3.9 events) and 1990?C2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880?C1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896?C1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918?C1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880?C1895), 0.076 (1896?C1917), 0.197 (1918?C1947) and 0.193 (1948?C1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973?C1989) and 0.510 (1990?C2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales. 相似文献
3.
夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动与中国近海热带气旋活动的关系 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
采用联合台风警报中心的台风最伟路径资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动(Asian-Pacif-ic Oscillation,简称APO)与东亚近海-西北太平洋大气环流的关系,并进一步探讨了APO与中国近海热带气旋(tropical cy-clone,简称TC)活动的关系.研究表明:(1)夏季APO强弱与同期西北太平洋及中国东部近海TC活动存在密切关系,即在APO强(弱)年,西北太平洋TC活动偏西(东)和偏北(南),中国东部近海TC明显增多(减少);(2)当APO偏强(弱)时,中国东部近海大气环流有(不)利于TC的维持和发展,表现为低层存在异常气旋性(反气旋性)环流,对流层高低层纬向风垂直切变减小(增大),且对流加强(减弱);(3)APO强弱也影响着TC引导气流的方向:在APO强(弱)年,西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)偏北和偏东(偏南和偏西),副高南侧偏东气流减弱(加强),有利于TC的向西北行或在偏北(南)纬度西行,进入中国东部近海的TC增多(减少);(4)APO强弱也影响着南海-热带西太平洋TC源地上空的大气环流,在APO强(弱)年,南海-热带西太平洋季风槽偏北、偏西(偏南、偏东),热带西太平洋TC活动偏北和偏西(偏南和偏东),有利于进入中国东部近海TC的增多(减少). 相似文献
4.
GOALS模式中大气能量循环的诊断分析与不同版本计算结果的比较研究 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
利用大气能量循环框图,对比分析中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)全球海-陆-气耦合系统模式(GOALS)两个版本(GOALS-2和GOALS-4),以及观测的全球平均大气能量循环的主要特征,并从能量循环贮蓄和转换项的纬向平均贡献去解释全球积分值改善和转坏的原因,以及诊断分析参数化方案变化后产生的影响.结果表明:模式的两个版本基本上能正确地模拟出全球能量循环的主要特征.旧版本GOALS-2能较好模拟全球积分值,常常是不同符号局地误差的相互抵消结果.新版本GOALS-4中某种局地过程的改善在一些情况下导致了全球积分值的转坏.引入辐射日变化参数化方案可能对能量循环各参数的局地贡献有着明显的影响.如纬向平均有效位能向瞬变涡动有效位能的斜压转换率、瞬变涡动有效位能向瞬变涡动动能的斜压转换率以及定常涡动动能的局地贡献有明显改善.南极地区不合实际的上升运动,是模拟的纬向平均有效位能与纬向平均动能之间的转换项全球积分值为负数的主要原因. 相似文献
5.
This global spatially explicit (0.5 by 0.5 degree) analysis presents the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs, processing and biogeochemical retention and delivery to surface waters and river export to coastal seas according to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Four systems are considered: (i) human system; (ii) agriculture; (iii) aquaculture; (iv) nature. Exploring the changes during 1980–2015 and 2015–2050 according to the SSPs shows that the natural nutrient sources have been declining in the past decades and will continue to decline in all SSPs in future decades due to massive land transformations, while agriculture, human sewage and aquaculture are becoming increasingly dominant (globally up to 80% of nutrient delivery). More efforts than those employed in any of the SSPs are needed to slow down the global nutrient cycles. One of the drivers of the proliferation of harmful algal blooms is the tendency towards increasing N:P ratios in global freshwaters and export to the global coastal seas; this is the result of increasing N:P in inputs in food production, more efficient biogeochemical retention of P than of N in river basins, and groundwater N legacies, which seems to be most pronounced in a united world that strives after sustainability. The diverging strategies to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals 14 (life below water), 2 (zero hunger) and 6 (clean water and sanitation) therefore require a balanced management system for both N and P in all systems, that accounts for future nutrient legacies. 相似文献
6.
Description and Application of a Model for Simulating Regional
Nitrogen Cycling and Calculating Nitrogen Flux 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A regional nitrogen cycle model, named IAP-N, was designed for simulating regional nitrogen （N） cycling and calculating N fluxes flowing among cultivated soils, crops, and livestock, as well as human, atmospheric and other systems. The conceptual structure and calculation methods and procedures of this model are described in detail. All equations of the model are presented. In addition, definitions of all the involved variables and parameters are given. An application of the model in China at the national scale is presented. In this example, annual surpluses of consumed synthetic N fertilizer; emissions of nitrous oxide （N2O）, ammonia （NH3） and nitrogen oxide （NOx）; N loss from agricultural lands due to leaching and runoff; and sources and sinks of anthropogenic reactive N （Nr） were estimated for the period 1961-2004. The model estimates show that surpluses of N fertilizer started to occur in the mid 1990s and amounted to 5.7 Tg N yr^-1 in the early 2000s. N20 emissions related to agriculture were estimated as 0.69 Tg N yr^-1 in 2004, of which 58% was released directly from N added to agricultural soils. Total NH3 and NOx emissions in 2004 amounted to 4.7 and 4.9 Tg N yr^-1, respectively. About 3.9 Tg N yr^-1 of N was estimated to have flowed out of the cultivated soil layer in 2004, which accounted for 33% of applied synthetic N fertilizer. Anthropogenic Nr sources changed from 2.8 （1961） to 28.1 Tg N yr^-1 （2004）, while removal （sinks） changed from to 2.1 to 8.4 Tg N yr^-1. The ratio of anthropogenic Nr sources to sinks was only 1.4 in 1961 but 3.3 in 2004. Further development of the IAP-N model is suggested to focus upon： Ca） inter-comparison with other regional N models; （b） overcoming the limitations of the current model version, such as adaptation to other regions, high-resolution database, and so on; and （c） developing the capacity to estimate the safe threshold of anthropogenic Nr source to sink ratios. 相似文献
7.
Because total UV(TUV) in the UV-A region is 100 times higher than in the UV-B region,UV-A is a considerable component when calculating erythemal UV(EUV) and UV-index.The ratio of EUV to TUV in the UV-A value [EUV(A)/TUV(A)]is investigated to convert the EUV(A) from TUV(A) for broadband observation. The representative value of EUV(A)/TUV(A),from the simulation study,is 6.9 × 10-4,changing from 6.1 × 10-4to 7.0 × 10-4as aerosol optical depth,total ozone and solar zenith angle change. By adopting the observational data of EUV(B) and TUV(A) from UV-biometer measurements at Yonsei University [(37.57?N,126.95?E),84 m above sea level],the EUV irradiance increases to 15% of EUV(B) due to the consideration of EUV(A) from the data of TUV(A) observation. Compared to the total EUV observed from the Brewer spectrophotometer at the same site,the EUV(B) from the UV-biometer observes only 95% of total EUV,and its underestimation is caused by neglecting the effect of UV-A. However,the sum of EUV(B) and EUV(A) [EUV(A+B)] from two UV-biometers is 10% larger than the EUV from the Brewer spectrophotometer because of the spectral overlap effect in the range 320–340nm. The correction factor for the overlap effect adjusts 8% of total EUV. 相似文献
8.
摘要： 基于WRF模式对2005年台风“海棠”登陆降水过程的成功模拟, 本文初步尝试利用修改后的非地转干Q矢量(QN矢量)PG分解, 定量揭示台风结构对台风降水和台风雨强差异形成的影响。结果表明： （1）在台风登陆过程的不同阶段, 对台风降水起主要贡献的台风结构因子是不同的。在台风登陆过程前12 h期间, 对降水贡献最为显著的为QNshdv, 其次是QNalst和QNcrst, 而QNcurv的贡献最小; 在后12 h期间, 对降水贡献最为显著的为QNcrst, 其次是QNcurv, QNshdv的贡献列第三, 而QNalst的贡献最小。（2）各台风结构因子QNalst、 QNcurv、 QNshdv及QNcrst对台风降水发生的贡献都存在明显的时、 空变化。（3）在台风登陆降水过程中, 对每个时刻暴雨雨强形成有贡献的台风结构因子是不同的。相对来讲, QNcurv对暴雨、 大暴雨及特大暴雨之间雨强差异形成的贡献最为显著, QNalst与QNcrst的贡献情况较为接近, 而QNshdv的贡献则相对最小。通过QN矢量PG分解, 可以定量揭示出登陆台风结构对台风降水的影响, 这也是总的QN矢量（即QN矢量）难以揭示的潜在物理机制。 相似文献
9.
南海季风爆发的年代际转折与东亚副热带夏季降水的关系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1979—2016年NCEP再分析资料, 分析了南海季风爆发的年代际转折与东亚副热带夏季降水的关系。结果表明:南海夏季风爆发时间在1993/1994年出现年代际转变, 1979—1993年爆发时间相对偏晚, 夏季华南降水偏少, 长江中下游至日本南部降水偏多; 1994—2016年爆发时间偏早, 夏季华南降水偏多, 长江中下游到日本南部降水偏少。南海季风爆发时间年代际转折与夏季东亚副热带降水关系可能受到菲律宾越赤道气流强度的调控, 季风爆发时间与菲律宾越赤道气流有显著正相关, 且均在1993/1994年间存在年代际转变。在1994—2016(1979—1993)年南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚), 菲律宾越赤道气流偏弱(强), 澳大利亚北部有偏北(南)风异常, 将暖池的热量往赤道输送, 使得赤道对流增强(减弱), 产生异常上升(下沉)运动汇入Hadley环流上升支, 增强(减弱)的Hadley环流导致下沉主体偏北(南), 促使副高脊线偏北(南), 从西北太平洋(孟加拉湾)往华南地区(江淮到日本南部)输送水汽增强, 所以华南(江淮到日本南部)夏季降水偏多。 相似文献
10.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
11.
Characteristics of intensity change in tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea from 1977 to 2007 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST. 相似文献
12.
This study uses rain gauge observations to assess the performance of different radar estimators R(ZH), R(KDP)and R(A) in estimating precipitation based on the observations of an S-band polarimetric radar over southern China during a typical convective storm and an extremely severe typhoon, i. e., Typhoon Manghkut. These radar estimators were derived from observations of a local autonomous particle size and velocity(Parsivel) unit(APU) disdrometer. A key parameter, alpha(α), which is the ratio of specific attenuation A to specific differential phase K_(DP) with three fixed values(α=0.015 dB deg~(-1), α=0.0185 dB deg~(-1) and α=0.03 dB deg~(-1)) was examined to test the sensitivity of the R(A) rain retrievals. The results show that:(1) All radar estimators can capture the spatio-temporal patterns of two precipitation events, R(A) with α =0.0185 dB deg~(-1) is well correlated with gauge measurement via higher Pearson's correlation coefficient(CC) of 0.87, lower relative bias(RB) of 16%, and lower root mean square error(RMSE) of 17.09 mm in the convective storm while it underestimates the typhoon event with RB of 35%;(2) R(A) with α=0.03 dB deg~(-1) shows the best statistical scores with the highest CC(0.92), lowest RB(7%) and RMSE(25.74 mm) corresponding to Typhoon Manghkut;(3) R(A) estimates are more efficient in mitigating the impact of partial beam blockage. The results indicate that α is remarkably influenced by the variation of drop size distribution. Thus, more work is needed to establish an automated and optimized α for the R(A) relation during different rainfall events over different regions. 相似文献
13.
SUN Jian-Qi 《大气和海洋科学快报》2012,5(3):231-234
This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China. 相似文献
14.
东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系 总被引：15，自引：2，他引：13
对近年来中外关于东亚冬季风(EAWM)年代际变化问题研究进展做了回顾和评述,主要包括以下3个方面内容:(1)东亚冬季风明显受到全球气候变化的影响,从20世纪50年代开始,中国冬季气温经历了一次冷期(从20世纪50年代延续到80年代初中期),一次暖期(从20世纪80年代初中后期延续到21世纪初)和近10-15年(约从1998年开始)出现的气候变暖趋缓期(也称气候变暖停顿期)。(2)东亚冬季风主要表现出强-弱-强3阶段的特征,即从1950年到1986/1987年,明显偏强;从1986/1987年冬季开始,东亚冬季风减弱;约2005年之后,东亚冬季风开始由弱转强。与东亚冬季风的年代际变化特征相对应,东亚冬季大气环流以及中国冬季气温和寒潮都表现出一致的年代际变化。(3)东亚冬季风的年代际变化与大气环流和太平洋海表温度(SST)的区域模态变化密切相关。当北半球环状模/北极涛动(NAM/AO)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)处于负(正)位相,东亚冬季风偏强(弱),中国冬季气温偏低(高)。此外,北大西洋年代尺度振荡(AMO)对东亚冬季风也有重要影响,在AMO负位相时,对应东亚冷期(强冬季风),正位相对应暖期(弱冬季风)。因而海洋的年代际变化是造成东亚冬季风气候脉动的主要自然原因,而全球气候变暖对东亚冬季风强度的减弱也有明显影响。 相似文献
15.
Nazzareno Diodato Gianni Bellocchi Chiara Bertolin Dario Camuffo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):187-196
This paper has exploited, for Central and Southern Italy (Mediterranean Sub-regional Area), an unprecedented historical dataset as an attempt to model seasonal (winter and summer) air temperatures in pre-instrumental time (back to 1500). Combining information derived from proxy–documentary data and large-scale simulation, a statistical downscaling approach in the form of mixed regression model was developed to adapt larger-scale estimations (regional component) to the sub-regional temperature pattern (local component). It interprets local temperature anomalies by means of monthly based Temperature Anomaly Scaled Index in the range ?5 (very cold conditions in June) to 2 (very warm conditions). The modelled response agrees well with the independent data from the validation sample (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, >0.60). The advantage of the approach is not merely increased accuracy in estimation. Rather, it relies on the ability to extract (and exploit) the right information to replicate coherent temperature series in historical times. 相似文献
16.
17.
The impact of strong (weak) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over South China Sea (SCS) and South Asia (SA) in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010. It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer. The study shows that in June and July cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SCS. In August, however, strong (weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA. In June and August cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SA while a strong (weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic (cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July. Besides, in June the strong (weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS, while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak. The impacts of the strong（weak）ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July, which favors less (more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River. However, the impacts are not so apparent in August. In South Asia, the strong (weak) ISO in July results in less (more) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin. The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July. 相似文献
18.
Using the SST data series in tropical ocean(20°N-20°S,50°E-80°W)during 1951-1997 to calculate its monthly mean square deviation,the work obtains results showing that interannual SST variability of the Pacific is more significant than that of the Indian Ocean.Especially near the central and eastern equatorial Pacific(165°W-90°W,6°N-6°S）。where it ranges from 2℃ to 4℃.The interannual SST variability is obvious in November and December but small in March and April.The interannual variabiltiy of “warm pool“SST is not so obvious as that of the eastern equatorial Pacific,Howerver,interannual SST variability of the Indian Ocean ranges from 1℃to 2℃ or so,being smaller than that of the Pacific,In the Indian ocean.Interannual SST variability of the Southern Hemisphere is more obvious than that of the Northern Hemisphere,According to above characterstics of interannual SST variability,the key sectors are determined. 相似文献
19.
Statistical analysis of annual maximum rainfall in North-East India: an application of LH-moments 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Surobhi Deka Munindra Borah Sarat Chandra Kakaty 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,104(1-2):111-122
An attempt has been made to determine the best fitting distribution to describe the annual series of maximum daily rainfall data for the period 1966 to 2007 of nine distantly located stations in North East India. The LH-moments of order zero (L) to order four (L4) are used to estimate the parameters of three extreme value distributions viz. generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), generalized logistic distribution (GLD), and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The performances of the distributions are assessed by evaluating the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of quantile estimates through Monte Carlo simulations. Then, the boxplot is used to show the location of the median and the associated dispersion of the data. Finally, it can be revealed from the results of boxplots that zero level of LH-moments of the generalized Pareto distribution would be appropriate to the majority of the stations for describing the annual maximum rainfall series in North East India. 相似文献
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Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy
This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies. 相似文献