共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
本文从地震灾害、建筑物、人口、经济、抗震救灾等多方面出发，将自然属性与社会属性进行有效结合，对地震危险性、建筑物抗震性能等影响因素进行详细分析，构建城镇地震灾害风险评价指标体系，以张家口地区16个县区为例，采用专家-层次分析法，建立精细化地震灾害风险评估模型。研究结果表明，城镇建筑物抗震性能普遍较差，怀来县地震灾害风险最大，桥东区、蔚县、涿鹿县、桥西区次之，沽源县、康保县地震灾害风险最小，并对各县区地震灾害风险主要影响因素进行讨论，发现地震风险指数与地形结构、建筑物抗震性能具有相关性，评估结果可为城镇制定防震减灾规划提供依据。 相似文献
2.
地震危险性评价中余震活动的影响--以邢台余震区为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
目前通用的地震危险性模型在确定有关地震活动性参数时都强调删除余震,其理由是因为所应用的地震活动模型是泊松模型。但是在现实的地震灾害中,有些是因为余震活动所引起的。忽略余震活动的影响,可能会低估某些区域的地震危险。本文提出考虑余震活动的地震危险性分析模型,并从此模型出发,以邢台地震为例,对余震区内、余震区边界和余震区外等场点计算了考虑余震活动的地震危险性结果,同时,在原有模型的基础上,只改变余震区所处的潜在震源区的地震年发生率,计算相同场点的地震危险性结果,并把这两个结果与不考虑余震活动的结果进行比较,在此基础上讨论在某些区域考虑余震活动的必要性。 相似文献
3.
渤海地区地震危险性特征及对工程抗震设防的启示 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文分析了渤海海域地震构造环境及地震活动特征,总结了近年来对该地区潜在震源区划分的一些新认识,分析了地震危险性区划结果.在此基础上,引入地震危险性特征参数K对研究区进行地震危险性分区,通过不同场点的地震危险性曲线证明了地震环境造成的危险性差异,并以研究区内3个概率水准的地震动峰值加速度的比值统计证明了引入地震危险性分区的必要性.研究表明:(1)不同概率水准的地震动参数之间不存在固定的比例关系,受地震环境影响,地震危险性分区和地震动参数区划图结合使用可以更准确地反应地震危险性特征;(2)对于一般工程,根据地震动参数区划图所给的50年超越概率10%的地震动参数折算所得到的小震的地震作用不具有统一的概率水准,抗震设防目标的实现没有科学保证;海洋平台抗震设计中利用强度水平地震推算得到韧性水平地震作用也不具有统一的概率水准;(3)将地震危险性分区和地震动参数区划结合使用或编制统一抗倒塌水准的区划图是一般工程抗震设防的科学做法,对于海洋平台的抗震设防,宜明确韧性水平地震作用的概率水准. 相似文献
4.
A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
Helen Crowley Miriam Colombi Barbara Borzi Marta Faravelli Mauro Onida Manuel Lopez Diego Polli Fabrizio Meroni Rui Pinho 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(1):149-180
National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within
a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of
a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure
data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for
seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The
aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of
the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment. 相似文献
5.
Abstract Soil erosion probability maps were produced under various case scenarios by accounting for uncertainties in the data and in the decision rule, using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). This objective was realized by applying the Bayesian Probability Theory within IDRISI, a raster based GIS. The outcomes were two continuous probability soil erosion maps ranging from zero to 1. Comparing these maps with an earlier study indicates that accounting for the uncertainties has, in general, decreased the probability of soil erosion. Based on average readings for specific sites on the maps, increases in erosion risk under the second case scenario have had the highest impact on the highlands that is in the central, eastern, and northern regions of Langkawi Island, Malaysia. Assuming a 10% risk, this impact has increased by 11.98, 11.83 and 5.741% for high, medium and low soil erosion risk areas on the island respectively. 相似文献
6.
Carlo Gavarini 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2001,21(5):480
In the first part the paper outlines the current conceptions relevant to seismic risk for constructions in urban centres analysing seismic hazard, vulnerability and exposure. In the second part there are some details about the vulnerability assessment of ordinary buildings, and about the differences that arise when monumental or historical buildings are in question. Then the concept of seismic scenario is given (third part), so that the specific question of seismic vulnerability of historical centres may be treated (part four), presenting an appropriate methodology recently proposed by the author. Finally part five presents an introduction to the theme of risk mitigation for historical centres and monuments, a very difficult question, where the two aspects of preservation and seismic safety must be considered together. 相似文献
7.
不同地区地震危险性的产生机制具有相似性，地震危险性可由若干地震活动指标（要素）加以描述，因此，这些指标特性的相似性反映了地震危险性大小的差异。为此，给出了一种计算相似度的新方法，并用这一方面对若干地区的地震危险性进行了评价，结果令人满意。 相似文献
8.
大型电力工程场地地震危险性研究现状与展望 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
概述了工程场地地震危险性分析的研究简史、内容和方法,并就研究工作中存在的问题和发展趋势进行了讨论.提出了利用GIS技术研制我国大型电力工程地震危险性分析信息系统的建议. 相似文献
9.
Qing He Kwok Pan Chun Mou Leong Tan Bastien Dieppois Liew Juneng Julian Klaus Matthieu Fournier Nicolas Massei Omer Yetemen 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14356
Ocean–atmosphere modes of climate variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as monsoons, regulate the regional wet and dry episodes in tropical regions. However, how those modes of climate variability, and their interactions, lead to spatial differences in drought patterns over tropical Asia at seasonal to interannual time scales remains unclear. This study aims to analyse the hydroclimate processes for both short- and long-term spatial drought patterns (3-, 6, 12- and 24-months) over Peninsular Malaysia using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Besides that, a generalized least squares regression is used to explore underlying circulation mechanisms of these spatio-temporal drought patterns. The tested drought indices indicate a tendency towards wetter conditions over Peninsular Malaysia. Based on principal component analysis, distinct spatio-temporal drought patterns are revealed, suggesting North–South and East–West gradients in drought distribution. The Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) variability, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are significant contributors to the observed spatio-temporal variability in drought. Both the ENSO and the SWIO modulate the North–South gradient in drought conditions over Peninsular Malaysia, while the QBO contributes more to the East–West gradient. Through modulating regional moisture fluxes, the warm phases of the ENSO and the SWIO, and the western phases of the QBO weaken the southwest and northeast monsoon, leading to precipitation deficits and droughts over Peninsular Malaysia. The East–West or North–South gradients in droughts are related to the middle mountains blocking southwest and northeast moisture fluxes towards Peninsular Malaysia. In addition, the ENSO and QBO variations are significantly leading to short-term droughts (less than a year), while the SWIO is significantly associated with longer-duration droughts (2 years or more). Overall, this work demonstrates how spatio-temporal drought patterns in tropical regions are related to monsoons and moisture transports affected by the oscillations over the Pacific and Indian oceans, which is important for national water risk management. 相似文献
10.
Deterministic vs. probabilistic earthquake hazards and risks 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Both probabilistic and deterministic methods have a role in seismic hazard and risk analyses performed for decision-making purposes. These two methods can complement one another to provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. One method will have priority over the other, depending on how quantitative are the decisions to be made, depending on the seismic environment, and depending on the scope of the project (single site or a region). In many applications a recursive analysis, where deterministic interpretations are triggered by probabilistic results and vice versa, will give the greatest insight and allow the most informed decisions to be made. 相似文献
11.
以四川酉部和山西南部为例，根据现有多种地震目录的不同精度，确定不同的震级下限，依据最大似然模型，求得由不同资料得到的各潜在震源区的地震活动性参数，并依据通用的地震危险性分析模型，得到了这两个区域的地震烈度区划图。 相似文献
12.
13.
The catastrophic nature of seismic risk resides in the fact that a group of structures and infrastructure is simultaneously
excited by spatially correlated seismic loads due to an earthquake. For this, both earthquake-to-earthquake (inter-event)
and site-to-site (intra-event) correlations associated with ground motion prediction equations must be taken into account
in assessing seismic hazard and risk at multiple sites. The consideration of spatial correlation of seismic demand affects
aggregate seismic losses as well as identified scenario seismic events. To investigate such effects quantitatively, a simulation-based
seismic risk model for spatially distributed structures is employed. Analysis results indicate that adequate treatment of
spatial correlation of seismic demand is essential and the probability distribution of aggregate seismic loss can be significantly
different from those based on the assumptions that seismic excitations are not correlated or fully correlated. Furthermore,
the results suggest that identified scenario events by deaggregation in terms of magnitude and distance become more extreme
if the spatial correlation is ignored. 相似文献
14.
为了评估不同抗震设防烈度区建筑结构震害风险,即场地地震危险性与结构地震易损性的卷积,本文以典型框架结构为例,对其震害风险进行研究。依据抗震设计规范,分别按照6度、7度和8度设计3个3跨10层框架结构模型,采用动力增量分析方法（Incremental Dynamic Analysis,IDA）对其进行地震易损性分析。同时,基于我国地震烈度概率分布特点,应用MATLAB软件生成符合极值Ⅲ型分布的地震烈度,并将其转化为地震加速度峰值,联合地震易损性结果评估模型震害风险。通过划分震害风险等级,为建筑结构抗震防灾对策的制定提供借鉴。 相似文献
15.
The need to investigate the level of seismic pounding risk of buildings is apparent in future building code calibrations. In order to provide further insight into the pounding risk of adjacent buildings, this study develops a numerical simulation approach to estimate the seismic pounding risk of adjacent buildings separated by a minimum code‐specified separation distance during a certain period of time. It has been demonstrated that the period ratio of adjacent buildings is an important parameter that affects the pounding risk of adjacent buildings. However, there is no specific consideration for the period ratio in the related seismic pounding provisions of the 1997 Uniform Building Code. Results also reveal that, for two adjacent buildings, the probability distribution of required distance to avoid seismic pounding fits very well with the type I extreme value distribution. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
地震危险区的边界划分探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文针对目前地震危险区边界划分上存在的问题,从地震地质和地震构造的角度,结合测震学方法进行了分析,指出地震分布和地震危险区边界划定与活动构造有密切的联系。依据这一思想,阐明了构造活动与地震活动的关系,初步提出了地震危险区边界判析的原则,即把地震危险区限制在一定的地震构造区(带);其边界依据活动构造划定;在地震危险区内部进行发震构造条件研究,并对这些发震构造(活断层)进行活动度分析;分层次地对地震危险区范围及其危险度进行确定。 本文着重进行了活动构造的研究,对中国大陆的活断层、新生代盆地、地形面以及古地震等作了活动时代、活动性质、活动强度等多方面的论述。 相似文献
17.
18.
Effective periods and seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames designed for risk categories I and IV according to IBC2009 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In current seismic design, structures that are essential for post‐disaster recovery, and hazardous facilities are classified as risk category IV and are designed with higher importance factors and stringent drift limits. These structures are expected to perform better in an earthquake event because a larger base shear and more stringent drift limit are used. Although this provision has been in the seismic design code over the last three decades, few studies have investigated the performance of essential structures. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of higher importance factors and stringent drift limits on the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames. A total of 16 steel structures are designed for Los Angeles and Seattle. Different risk categories are used for the design. The effects of the risk categories on the structural periods, and thus on the seismic force demand, are investigated. A suite of inelastic time history analyses are carried out to understand the probability of exceeding a specified limit state when the structures are subjected to different levels of earthquake events. The results show that the periods of the structures in risk category IV decrease by a factor of 0.5 to 0.8, and the strengths increase by a factor of 1.5 to 3.2. Seismic fragility analysis shows that the structures in risk category IV generally satisfy the probabilistic performance objectives. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
全国尺度的城市建筑地震风险评估对城市防震减灾工作有着重要意义。本文根据全国人口普查和城市统计年鉴等给出的宏观指标建立城市建筑数据库,通过GEAR1方法(Global earthquake activity rate model 1)和第五代中国地震动参数区划图给出具体场地的地面运动强度,通过地面坡度与剪切波速的对应关系确定的场地类别来考虑地震动输入,采用城市抗震弹塑性分析方法建立建筑分析模型,通过地震经济损失风险指标和建筑严重破坏和倒塌风险作为风险评价指标,给出中国大陆主要城市建筑地震风险分布图。结果分析表明,本文方法可以基于可公开获取的数据预测全国不同城市的建筑震害风险;根据第五代地震动参数区划图给出的地面强度,地震经济损失高风险区主要是设防加速度0.3g以上地区;考虑城市人口、GDP因素后,中、东部城市因人口和财富密度较高,建筑地震风险增加明显;不同地震动选波对经济损失风险影响较小,而对倒塌风险影响较大。本文分析方法可以为城市建筑地震风险分析提供相关参考。 相似文献
20.
年度地震危险区预测问题的几点初步思考 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文通过我国年度地震危险区预测对应情况的简要分析，认为年度地震危险区判定的时效定位和异常依据的选取等存在值得注意的问题。提出年尺度中期或中短期地震危险区预测应根据不同地区震情跟踪研究进行科学的动态判定。 相似文献