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1.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(13-14):1810-1817
Long high-resolution proxy records are valuable for understanding Asian Southwest Monsoon (ASM) dynamics on decadal to centennial timescales. A millennium long δ18O ice core record from the central Himalayas provides an opportunity to study the ASM variability on decadal to centennial timescales. The Dasuopu ice core δ18O record indicates that a relatively warm period corresponding with the Medieval Warm Period lasted from AD 1140s to 1390s, a notable warming trend is apparent from 1800s to 1990s, and several cool periods occurred between AD 1010–1130s, 1290–1330s, 1400–1460s, 1520s, 1590–1630s, 1740s, and 1770–1790s. Comparisons with other high-resolution monsoon proxy records from the Arabian Sea, south Oman, and southern China reveal a high correspondence between temperature changes in the central Himalayas and the ASM variability during the last 1000 years. A pronounced warming trend since AD 1670 coincides with an abrupt transition from a weak to a strong intensity of the ASM. The thermal conditions in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau and associated glacial boundary conditions may have been predominantly responsible for variations of the ASM intensity and for a latitudinal movement in the mean position of the ITCZ on decadal to centennial timescales.  相似文献   

2.
Several large abrupt climate fluctuations during the last glacial have been recorded in Greenland ice cores and archives from other regions. Often these Dansgaard–Oeschger events are assumed to have been synchronous over wide areas, and then used as tie‐points to link chronologies between the proxy archives. However, it has not yet been tested independently whether or not these events were indeed synchronous over large areas. Here, we compare Dansgaard–Oeschger‐type events in a well‐dated record from southeastern France with those in Greenland ice cores. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between both archives, we keep their age models independent. Even these well‐dated archives possess large chronological uncertainties that prevent us from inferring synchronous climate events at decadal to multi‐centennial time scales. If possible, comparisons between proxy archives should be based on independent, non‐tuned time‐scales. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Several drill cores were obtained from a laminated, actively forming flowstone from a shallow cave in Austria. Highly resolved petrographic and geochemical analyses combined with multi‐annual cave monitoring reveal a distinct sensitivity of flowstone growth and composition to late Holocene meteoric precipitation. The regular sub‐millimetre‐scale lamination consists of thicker, translucent laminae and thinner (organic) inclusion‐rich laminae. There is also a macroscopic millimetre‐scale banding of darker and lighter bands comprising several laminae. Stable isotope analyses of drill cores and modern calcite precipitates show a pronounced positive covariation of δ13C and δ18O values indicative of kinetic isotope effects. Comparing the isotope values with petrography shows gradual changes across several of the annual laminae, i.e. changes of several per mille on a multi‐annual to decadal timescale. The stable isotope and trace‐element composition, as well as the flowstone petrography, are mainly controlled by the variable drip‐water discharge controlling the water‐film thickness and water residence time on the flowstone surface and consequently the intensity of CO2‐degassing, kinetic isotope enrichment and concomitant calcite precipitation. Drill core PFU6 provides an isotope record of the last ca. 3000 years at near‐annual resolution. A distinct phase of low C and O isotope values – interpreted as increased discharge and hence higher meteoric precipitation – occurred from ca. 300 to 140 a b2k (second half of the Little Ice Age) and another wet interval occurred around 700 a, corresponding to reported Medieval glacier advances. The Roman Warm Period was also dominated by relatively wet conditions, although significant decadal variability prevailed. Increased precipitation further characterized the intervals from ca. 2480 to 2430 and 2950 to 2770 a. Dry conditions persisted during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, although this trend towards reduced precipitation started earlier. The highest C isotope values of the last 2 ka are recorded around 750 a and another dry phase is centred at 1480 a. This new record shows that inter‐annual to decadal oscillations are a dominant mode of variation during the last 3 ka in the Alps. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The number and types of late Quaternary records of tropical cyclones (TCs) and temperate storms have been increasing globally over the past 10 years. There are now numerous such records for the Atlantic Ocean (USA) and Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, South Pacific Ocean, and a fewer number from the northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The most obvious characteristic of these records is that many reveal extended alternating periods of greater and lesser TC activity over the past 6000 years. The length of these phases of relative inactivity and greater activity depends on the chronological resolution of the record, with the coarser‐resolution ones displaying multi‐century to millennial‐scale episodes and the high‐resolution records displaying decadal to centennial‐scale oscillations. In several instances the likely causes of these alternating periods of TC behaviour have been attributed to different phases of climate when El Niños and La Niñas dominated or to longer‐term variations in sea surface temperatures and possibly solar forcing. The picture emerging from these records is that TC behaviour is not entirely stochastic over the long term and that any simulations of long‐term TC behaviour need to account for these climatic influences. Incorporation of these observations, and the many more needed, is important for understanding the future behaviour of TCs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Flood is among the deadliest disasters in India, and the frequency of floods and extreme precipitation events is projected to increase under the warming climate. The frequency of floods in India varies geographically as some regions are more prone to floods than the others. The Kerala flood of 2018 caused enormous economic damage, affected millions of people, and resulted in the death of more than 400 people. Here we provide a hydroclimatological perspective on the Kerala flood of 2018. Using the observations and model simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, we show that the 2018 extreme precipitation and runoff conditions that caused flooding were unprecedented in the record of the past 66 years (1951–2017). Our results show that mean monsoon precipitation has significantly declined while air temperature has significantly increased during 1951–2017 in Kerala. The drying and warming trends during the monsoon season resulted in a declined total runoff in large part of the state in the last 66 years. Apart from the mean hydroclimatic conditions, extreme precipitation, and extreme total runoff have also declined from 1951 to 2017. However, 1 and 2-day extreme precipitation and extreme runoff conditions in August 2018 exceeded substantially from the long-term 95th percentiles recorded during 1951–2017. Since there is no increase in mean and extreme precipitation in Kerala over the last six decades, the extreme event during August 2018 is likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability rather anthropogenic climate warming. The severity of the Kerala flood of 2018 and the damage caused might be affected by several factors including land use/land cover change, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage and operations, encroachment of flood plains, and other natural factors. The impacts of key drivers (anthropogenic and natural) on flood severity need to be established to improve our understanding of floods and associated damage.  相似文献   

6.
Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
1644-2004年中国洪涝灾害主周期的变化   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
方修琦  陈莉  李帅 《水科学进展》2007,18(5):656-661
采用1644-1839年、1840-1949年中国洪涝受灾县数和1950-2004年中国洪涝受灾面积资料,经过去趋势标准化处理后,采用滑动功率谱和Butterworth滤波器进行了分析,得出:1644-2004年间中国洪涝受灾范围变化是不同时间尺度周期振荡的综合结果,主要包含80年的世纪周期和50年、30年、20年尺度的年代际周期。中国洪涝受灾范围变化的主周期在不同时段内存在明显的变化,1833年以前世纪周期变化显著;1834-1920年在世纪周期变化的背景下叠加了显著的20年尺度波动;1921年以后年代际尺度周期变化显著,其中1947年前后发生了主周期从20年尺度到30年尺度的变化。  相似文献   

8.
甘肃天水地区45a来强降水与洪涝灾害特征分析   总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5  
洪涝灾害是一种常见的自然灾害,对农业生产和人民生活有极大的影响.通过对甘肃天水地区强降水和洪涝灾害事件资料的整理,对其强降水事件、洪涝灾害变化特征以及二者间地联系进行了分析研究.现有资料统计显示,天水地区没出现过整个区域性洪涝灾害,以局地洪涝灾害为主,强降水事件和洪涝灾害具有显著的年代际和季节性变化特征.由于当地的土地蓄水性能很差,一般性的强降水就可能会产生洪涝灾害.随着气候变暖,这一地区的强降水事件和洪涝灾害呈增加趋势,建议当前应加强对局地强降水事件的防范工作.  相似文献   

9.
A high‐resolution diatom record from site MD05‐2908 in the Southern Okinawa Trough, East China Sea, reveals pronounced multidecadal‐ to centennial‐scale palaeoceanographic changes throughout the last millennium. Summer sea‐surface salinity (SSS) was reconstructed using a weighted averaging partial least squares diatom‐based training set. The reconstructed SSS shows slightly decreasing values during the period AD 905–1930 with considerable fluctuations superimposed on this general trend. Relatively high‐salinity conditions during the interval AD 905–1450 probably suggest a low flood frequency in north‐eastern Taiwan. Furthermore, the high SSS values are associated with a strong and stable influence of the Kuroshio Current on the Southern Okinawa Trough during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The period AD 1450–1930 is characterized by three low‐salinity intervals (AD 1450–1500, AD 1625–1725 and AD 1770–1880) separated by periods of relatively high salinity. The low SSS intervals indicate increased freshwater discharge into the Southern Okinawa Trough during the Little Ice Age, probably as a result of higher flood frequencies in north‐eastern Taiwan. Spectral and wavelet analyses suggest that this pattern was linked to multidecadal variations in summer SSS, presumably associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Investigation of the sedimentary record of pre‐Alpine Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) focused on the environmental reaction to rapid Lateglacial climatic changes. Results of this study reveal complex proxy responses that are variable in time and influenced by the long‐term evolution of the lake and its catchment. A new field sampling approach facilitated continuous and precisely controlled parallel sampling at decadal to sub‐annual resolution for µ‐XRF element scanning, carbon geochemistry, stable isotope measurements on ostracods, pollen analyses and large‐scale thin sections for microfacies analysis. The Holocene chronology is established through microscopic varve counting and supported by accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating of terrestrial plant macrofossils, whereas the Lateglacial age model is based on δ18O wiggle matching with the Greenland NGRIP record, using the GICC05 chronology. Microfacies analysis enables the detection of subtle sedimentological changes, proving that depositional processes even in rather large lake systems are highly sensitive to climate forcing. Comparing periods of major warming at the onset of the Lateglacial and Holocene and of major cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas reveals differences in proxy responses, reflecting threshold effects and ecosystem inertia. Temperature increase, vegetation recovery, decrease of detrital flux and intensification of biochemical calcite precipitation at the onset of the Holocene took place with only decadal leads and lags over a ca. 100 a period, whereas the spread of woodlands and the reduction of detrital flux lagged the warming at the onset of the Lateglacial Interstadial by ca. 500–750 a. Cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas is reflected by the simultaneous reaction of δ18O and vegetation, but sedimentological changes (reduction of endogenic calcite content, increase in detrital flux) were delayed by about 150–300 a. Three short‐term Lateglacial cold intervals, corresponding to Greenland isotope substages GI‐1d, GI‐1c2 and GI‐1b, also show complex proxy responses that vary in time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Decadal–centennial‐scale climate variability in coastal Antarctica remains poorly understood due to the limited number of highly resolved, well‐dated records. We present a 900‐year, decadal‐scale reconstruction based on sedimentary diatoms from Lake Abi in Lützow–Holm Bay, East Antarctica. Hydrological change is inferred from diatom ecological preferences in conjunction with an existing regional training set and implies that lake water specific conductivity, depth and nitrogen availability are the key drivers of diatom assemblage change. Lake Abi underwent a series of subtle environmental changes related to these environmental variables, possibly driven by changes in catchment snow melt and the duration of seasonal ice cover. Ordination is used to trace the major patterns of change in the diatom community, with notable shifts identified between 470 and 400 and at ～350 cal a BP (where present = CE 1950). The frequency of environmental variability at Lake Abi is broadly consistent with a record of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation during the last millennium, but contrasts with the apparent climate stability elsewhere in eastern Antarctica. Further research is required to constrain the limnological and ecological responses of lakes in coastal Antarctica to obtain more rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from these sites of immense potential.  相似文献   

12.
过去530年中国东部旱涝事件模拟研究初探   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
彭友兵  徐影 《第四纪研究》2009,29(6):1095-1103
利用CCSM2.0.1模式完成的千年模拟试验结果对近530年中国东部区域旱涝事件进行了初步的研究。结果表明模式一定程度能够反映过去530年中国东部降水变化规律,在年代际变化上与旱涝等级资料较为一致。模式能模拟出旱涝事件世纪尺度变化特征以及旱涝事件的群发现象。从模拟结果中发现,过去530年中国东部共发生了3次持续时间5年或5年以上的严重干旱事件,分别发生在1483～1488年、1635～1645年和1964～1968年; 4次持续时间5年或5年以上的严重洪涝事件,分别发生在1529～1533年、1749～1753年、1926～1932年和1978～1984年。其中,1483～1488年、1635～1645年和1964～1968年干旱事件以及1749～1753年洪涝事件与旱涝等级序列有较好的对应,说明模式对严重干旱事件具有一定的再现能力,而对严重洪涝事件的模拟能力还有待加强。对个例分析发现,对应较好的3次严重干旱事件发生时期降水空间型态的演化与1749～1753年严重洪涝事件不同,前者前期呈南涝北旱格局,旱区逐年向东、南扩大,后者前期同样也呈南涝北旱格局,但为涝区逐年向东、北扩大。模拟还发现中国东部夏季降水的异常变化主要受夏季风影响,发生严重干旱事件期间夏季风偏弱,发生严重洪涝事件期间夏季风偏强,模拟显示严重旱涝事件期间副热带高压无明显变化。  相似文献   

13.
淮河流域近500年洪旱事件演变特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
为了认识淮河流域过去500年洪旱事件发生规律并鉴别当前的洪旱情势,收集并对比分析了流域实测降雨资料、重建历史雨季降雨资料、历史旱涝等级资料、历史洪旱文献记录和历史调查洪水资料等多源洪旱灾害数据。以重建历史雨季降雨资料和历史旱涝等级资料为主要依据,通过滑动平均、频率计算、小波分析和突变检验等方法,分析流域过去500年洪水干旱时空分布特征和演变规律。结果表明,17世纪淮河流域洪旱灾害最严重,但20世纪极端洪旱事件发生频次最多。淮河流域洪旱事件存在40年左右的稳定长周期,主周期从18世纪的15~20年逐渐减少到19世纪的5年周期,近20年来出现2~3年的主周期,洪旱灾害事件呈增加趋势,流域社会经济发展面临着严峻的洪旱灾害威胁。  相似文献   

14.
A continuous sediment record since 12.3 cal ka bp from Lake Wuxu (south‐eastern Tibetan Plateau) was investigated in terms of the Holocene evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The molar C/N ratio and stable C isotope were used to identify the source of the organic matter as well as climate conditions. The evolution of Lake Wuxu was summarized wihtin two periods. During the first period (early to mid‐Holocene), the lake received increased fluvially transported materials, reflecting variation in the summer monsoon with solar insolation. The lake level declined and water residence time increased because of reduced river discharge during the second period (late Holocene) corresponding to a weakening of the summer monsoon. The organic material revealed a major contribution from lake primary productivity, which showed identical patterns with a high‐resolution isotope record from Dongge Cave, as well as total solar irradiance. Our record from Lake Wuxu indicates that the Holocene evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon has been driven by the solar forcing at decadal/centennial to millennial time scales. Furthermore, an abrupt decline in the monsoon was detected at around 4.0 cal ka bp , which is probably caused by an increased frequency of EI Nino‐Southern Oscillation events. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Current high‐resolution palaeoenvironmental records reveal short‐term Holocene coolings. One of these major Holocene rapid climate changes occurred between 3.2 and 2.7 cal. ka BP. The sensitivity of river systems vis‐à‐vis slight and short‐term Holocene climatic variations is a subject of controversy in the scientific community. In this paper, we present a 4.0 to 1.4 cal ka BP palaeoflood record from the Lower Moulouya River (northeastern Morocco) to demonstrate the high sensitivity of semiarid rivers in the southwestern Mediterranean towards Holocene environmental changes. The Lower Moulouya flood deposits are characterised by thick, well‐stratified, predominantly clayey to silty overbank fine sediments. These cohesive sediments show evidence of excellent preservation conditions against fluvial erosion and contain a continuous record of mid to late Holocene flood sequences. The Moulouya palaeoflood record can be interpreted in the context of regional and global high‐resolution proxy data, revealing a strong coupling with Holocene rapid climate changes. The centennial‐scale Moulouya palaeohydrological history will be discussed with palaeoenvironmental data from the same record (palaeomagnetics, sedimentary charcoal record, anthracological analyses, snail analyses) to generate new ideas about the mid to late Holocene hydrological cycle in the southwestern Mediterranean. The deduced features of pronounced Lower Moulouya flooding and the decreased fire recurrence during Holocene cooling remain somewhat inconsistent with the interpretation of other palaeohydrological and paleaoecological records from the southwestern Mediterranean. However, enhanced Lower Moulouya flood frequencies between 3.2 and 2.7 cal. ka BP agree with increased floodplain aggradation in other major river systems of Mediterranean North Africa. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
新疆阿尔泰山地区极端水文事件对气候变化的响应   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
新疆北部阿尔泰山地区受西风带气流影响, 降水丰沛, 尤其冬季积雪厚而稳定, 山区产流发育了额尔齐斯河与乌伦古河, 从西到东形成主要支流十余条. 在全球气候变化下, 山区气温上升明显, 极端降水增多, 气候变暖带来的水循环加快, 极端水文事件也趋于增多. 由于冬季气温升高, 春季积雪消融提前, 春季融雪洪水提前, 洪峰流量增强; 夏季极端降水增加, 使得暴雨洪水增多. 由于冬、 春季积雪增多, 雪灾发生频率增加, 春季的融雪洪水灾害危害增强. 极端水文事件引起的自然灾害已经威胁到阿勒泰地区的牧业生产、 交通安全和水资源供给, 应加强水文水资源安全对气候变化的应对措施, 提高水资源安全保障, 减缓气候变化的危害.  相似文献   

17.
卢文芳 《水科学进展》1992,3(2):104-111
用因子分析及方差最大原则下的正交旋转技术,计算并识别长江中下游汛期(5～9月)降水场的四个空间高载荷区及相对应的因子得分系数.它们的空间、时间变化,反映了长江中下游区域的实际降水特点.赤道东太平洋海温、区域平均海温及ENSO事件都与高载荷区的汛期降水有一定的联系,所得结果可作为汛期降水短期气候预报的参考因子.  相似文献   

18.
第四纪巨型堰塞湖溃决产生的高能洪水是地球及其他星球上已知规模最大的陆地淡水事件。越来越多的研究证明高能洪水事件具有普遍性,广泛发育于欧亚大陆、北美洲和南美洲等地区。研究者发现不同地区高能洪水事件的沉积特征具有一定的共性,但其典型沉积序列却依然缺失。本文首先回顾了全球已报道高能洪水案例并介绍了高能洪水的定义,总结了高能洪水沉积的特征与地层层序,归纳了其典型沉积序列及其标志性特性。同时,沉积证据是高能洪水的唯一记录,本文通过沉积层序的解读以期重建单次或多次高能洪水的流量过程、水动力条件和物质输送方式。典型高能洪水沉积物多呈块状构造,席状展布,缺乏黏土和粉砂粒级,发育层合并现象、“漂浮”碎屑、内碎屑、脱水构造和同生变形构造。高能洪水典型沉积序列由下往上包括底部粗粒平行、大型斜坡沉积、水平纹层、波纹和沙垄交错层理、粉砂层和顶部泥石流沉积。该沉积序列由高浓度悬浮质的快速沉积主导,可对应于单次的水流增强与减弱;从洪水过程曲线的时间尺度理解,其代表了洪水的涨水和消落过程,其间伴随着水流的周期性强烈脉动。最后,简单介绍了我国已发现的高能洪水事件,展望了我国的高能洪水研究。  相似文献   

19.
Studying climate changes over the past 2 000 years has important scientific significance in exploring climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, assessing the natural and anthropogenic contribution to the climate warming, and understanding the effects of human activities in the past and future climate changes. Due to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstruction in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate.The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is one of the state-of-the-art climate models, but its performance in simulating the temperature in China has not been examined.The temperature datasets of observation/reanalysis (GHCN_CAMS) and reconstructions during the past 2000 years in China were used to examine the performance of CESM. The comparison between the annual average temperatures of GHCN_CAMS reanalysis and simulation showed that the model well reproduced the spatial distributions and upward trend of the annual average temperature in China, and the comparison with reconstructions in five sub-regions of China indicated that the simulation were in good consistent with the average temperature changes of reconstructionson decadal time scales. On the centennial time scale, the average temperature fluctuations of simulation in the regions of China were in accord with reconstructions generally except for Central East and Tibet.There existed three warm periods of simulated temperature variation in China over the past 2000 years, including 0-540AD, 800-1250AD and 1901-2000AD, and two cold periods involving the 551-721AD and 1400-1850AD, which had some discrepancies with reconstructions. And the discrepancies between simulation and reconstructions might be related to uncertainties of the resolution, external forcing and parameterization of the subgrid-scale process in the model.  相似文献   

20.
The evolution of flood activity with global warming remains uncertain. To better assess flood–climate relationships, lake sediments are increasingly being investigated because they could provide regional flood histories long enough to cover past climate changes. However, site‐specific sedimentary processes may bias flood reconstructions. The aim of this article is to investigate these effects through the reconstruction of two distinct flood records from independent, neighbouring sedimentary basins of the same lake (Lake Allos in the Mediterranean French Alps), i.e. under the same climate conditions. Understanding of sedimentary processes is crucial in order to adapt the sampling strategy and the flood‐intensity proxy to each sedimentary system and, thereby, reconstruct a complete and reliable flood history. Thanks to this detailed approach, the main trends of the regional flood variability can be reproduced; i.e. periods of high flood‐frequency, ranges of flood‐frequency values and timing of the most intense events. In detail, some differences appeared associated to the various stream capacities to erode and transport flood sediments to the lake system, implying variable sensitivity of sedimentary systems in recording floods. Comparing regional flood records based on independent sedimentary systems from similar environments could thus be a complementary approach to assessing past flood intensity. Such an approach could open particularly interesting perspectives because reconstructing the long‐term evolution of flood intensity is a key challenge in the geosciences.  相似文献   

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