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1.
Evapotranspiration (ET), a key component of the hydrological cycle, affects the transport of water and energy in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere system. Thus, quantifying the driving forces of ET dynamics is important to ensure rational water resource utilization. Based on meteorological and satellite data, spatiotemporal dynamics of ET were detected using the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model, and effects of climate variability and landscape pattern change on ET dynamics in an arid to semiarid landscape mosaic during the growing season (April-October) from 2001 to 2015 in Xilingol League, China were evaluated. The results indicated that (a) a significant increase (P < .05) in ET was found in the north-eastern Xilingol League, and a significant decrease (P < .05) in ET was confined to the southwest and (b) climate variability had significant effects on ET dynamics. All climatic factors showed a positive correlation relationship with ET dynamics, and mean temperature (Ta) was the most influential climatic factor on ET dynamics followed by relative humidity (Rh), wind speed (Ws), and precipitation (Pr), respectively. The influence of landscape pattern change on ET dynamics was mainly reflected in the increase of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) promoting ET dynamics. Several other landscape pattern metrics also had important impacts on ET dynamics, which were mainly reflected in the positive effect of the aggregation index (AI) on ET dynamics and the negative effects of the largest patch index (LPI), edge density (ED), and percentage of landscape (PLAND) on ET dynamics. To promote effective water resource utilization, landscape managers should continue to moderately implement vegetation restoration projects such as the Grain for Green Project, orient with conversion of low-quality cropland into grassland, and conserve large areas of grassland. Appropriate management measures for forests and cropland scattered in the landscape mosaic, based on local climate and soil properties, as well as socioeconomic goals, are also required. 相似文献
2.
Adrienne M. Marshall Timothy E. Link Gerald N. Flerchinger Dmitry J. Nicolsky Melissa S. Lucash 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14251
Soil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this data-sparse region. Parameter estimation is further complicated in regions with rapidly warming climate, where there is a need to minimize model error dependence on interannual climate variations. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied the physically based, one-dimensional ecohydrological Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest stand in interior Alaska over a 13-year period. Using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation parameterisation, SHAW reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture during a five-year validation period quite well, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020 cm3/cm3. Many parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the eight-year validation period, indicating some overfitting and demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based on traditional performance measures such as the RMSE that minimize error in soil moisture simulation, with one that is designed to minimize the dependence of model error on interannual climate variability using a new diagnostic approach we call CSMP, which stands for Climate Sensitivity of Model Performance. Use of the CSMP approach moderately decreases traditional model performance but may be more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is important that model error is independent from climate variability. These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL, can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model parameterisation, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter selection to improve applicability in non-stationary climates. 相似文献
3.
Sushma Prasad Norbert Marwan Deniz Eroglu Bedartha Goswami Praveen K. Mishra Birgit Gaye A. Anoop N. Basavaiah Martina Stebich Arshid Jehangir 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(15):3842-3853
Extreme climate events have been identified both in meteorological and long-term proxy records from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) realm. However, the potential of palaeoclimate data for understanding mechanisms triggering climate extremes over long time scales has not been fully exploited. A distinction between proxies indicating climate change, environment, and ecosystem shift is crucial for enabling a comparison with forcing mechanisms (e.g. El-Niño Southern Oscillation). In this study we decouple these factors using data analysis techniques [multiplex recurrence network (MRN) and principal component analyses (PCA)] on multiproxy data from two lakes located in different climate regions – Lonar Lake (ISM dominated) and the high-altitude Tso Moriri Lake (ISM and westerlies influenced). Our results indicate that (i) MRN analysis, an indicator of changing environmental conditions, is associated with droughts in regions with a single climate driver but provides ambiguous results in regions with multiple climate/environmental drivers; (ii) the lacustrine ecosystem was ‘less sensitive’ to forcings during the early Holocene wetter periods; (iii) archives in climate zones with a single climate driver were most sensitive to regime shifts; (iv) data analyses are successful in identifying the timing of onset of climate change, and distinguishing between extrinsic and intrinsic (lacustrine) regime shifts by comparison with forcing mechanisms. Our results enable development of conceptual models to explain links between forcings and regional climate change that can be tested in climate models to provide an improved understanding of the ISM dynamics and their impact on ecosystems. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
大量地质证据表明,上新世以来(最近5 MaB.P.)青藏高原北部及非洲东部和南部地区出现过显著的构造隆升,而与此同时亚洲季风也经历了显著变化,这两者之间是否存在着因果联系一直是地学界所关心和争论的一个重要科学问题.本文利用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的公用大气模式(CAM 3.1)就上新世以来青藏高原北部及东-南非高原的构造隆升对亚洲夏季风气候变化的影响进行了数值试验研究.结果表明,上新世以来亚洲夏季风的增强与两地构造隆升密切相关,但两者隆升对于亚洲季风子系统的作用是有区别的.青藏高原北部隆升主要造成东亚北部夏季风的增强及季风降水的增多,但对南亚夏季风的作用较小;东-南非高原的隆升明显增强南亚夏季风,但对东亚北部夏季风的影响有限. 相似文献
5.
Anna Lintern Shuci Liu Camille Minaudo Rémi Dupas Danlu Guo Kefeng Zhang Ulrike Bende-Michl Clément Duvert 《水文研究》2021,35(12):e14423
For effective water quality management and policy development, spatial variability in the mean concentrations and dynamics of riverine water quality needs to be understood. Using water chemistry (calcium, electrical conductivity, nitrate-nitrite, soluble reactive phosphorus, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and total suspended solids) data for up to 578 locations across the Australian continent, we assessed the impact of climate zones (arid, Mediterranean, temperate, subtropical, tropical) on (i) inter-annual mean concentration and (ii) water chemistry dynamics as represented by constituent export regimes (ratio of the coefficients of variation of concentration and discharge) and export patterns (slope of the concentration-discharge relationship). We found that inter-annual mean concentrations vary significantly by climate zones and that spatial variability in water chemistry generally exceeds temporal variability. However, export regimes and patterns are generally consistent across climate zones. This suggests that intrinsic properties of individual constituents rather than catchment properties determine export regimes and patterns. The spatially consistent water chemistry dynamics highlights the potential to predict riverine water quality across the Australian continent, which can support national riverine water quality management and policy development. 相似文献
6.
Review of Chinese atmospheric science research over the past 70 years: Climate and climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jianping HUANG Wen CHEN Zhiping WEN Guangjun ZHANG Zhaoxin LI Zhiyan ZUO Qingyun ZHAO 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2019,(10)
Climate and climate change have always been a research focus of atmospheric sciences. This paper summaries research efforts, achievements and international contributions of the Chinese scientific community on climate and climate change over the past 70 years. The review is based on papers published officially in national or international scientific journals,and is organized to cover six aspects:(1) general climate studies;(2) impact of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau;(3) impact of the East Asian monsoon;(4) influences of teleconnection oscillation and westerlies;(5) climate dynamics and development of climate models; and(6) climate change. It is, however, to be noted that the present review can not be considered as an exhaustive one, since there is a huge body of literature in the field. 相似文献
7.
Shawn J. Marshall Author Vitae 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,240(2):191-204
Glaciers and ice sheets play a dynamic role in Earth's climate system, influencing regional- and global-scale climate and responding to climate change on time scales from years to millennia. They are also an integral part of Earth's landscape in alpine and polar regions, where they are an active agent in isostatic, tectonic, and Earth surface processes. This review paper summarizes recent progress in understanding and modelling ice sheet dynamics, from the microphysical processes of ice deformation in glaciers to continental-scale processes that influence ice dynamics. Based on recent insights and research directions, it can be expected that a new generation of ice sheet models will soon replace the current standard. Improvements that can be foreseen in the near future include: (i) the addition of internally-consistent evolutionary equations for ice crystal fabric (anisotropic flow laws), (ii) more generalized flow laws that include different deformation mechanisms under different stress regimes, (iii) explicit incorporation of the effects of chemical impurities and grain size (dynamic recrystallization) on ice deformation, (iv) higher-order stress solutions to the momentum balance (Stokes' equation) that governs ice sheet flow, and (v) the continued merger of ice sheet models with increasingly complex Earth systems models, which include fully-coupled subglacial hydrological and geological processes. Examples from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Vatnajökull Ice Cap, Iceland are used to illustrate several of these new directions and their importance to glacier dynamics. 相似文献
8.
Dynamic characteristics of monthly rainfall in the Korean Peninsula under climate change 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Min Soo Kyoung Hung Soo Kim Bellie Sivakumar Vijay P. Singh Kyung Soo Ahn 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):613-625
Global climate change is one of the most serious issues we are facing today. While its exact impacts on our water resources
are hard to predict, there is a general consensus among scientists that it will result in more frequent and more severe hydrologic
extremes (e.g. floods, droughts). Since rainfall is the primary input for hydrologic and water resource studies, assessment
of the effects of climate change on rainfall is essential for devising proper short-term emergency measures as well as long-term
management strategies. This is particularly the case for a region like the Korean Peninsula, which is susceptible to both
floods (because of its mountainous terrain and frequent intense rainfalls during the short rainy season) and droughts (because
of its smaller area, long non-rainy season, and lack of storage facilities). In view of this, an attempt is made in the present
study to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall in the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, the dynamics
of ‘present rainfall’ and ‘future rainfall’ at the Seoul meteorological station in the Han River basin are examined and compared;
monthly scale is considered in both cases. As for ‘present rainfall,’ two different data sets are used: (1) observed rainfall
for the period 1971–1999; and (2) rainfall for the period 1951–1999 obtained through downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs
produced by the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research-Bergen Climate Model Version 2 (BCCR-BCM2.0) climate model with the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) scenario.
The ‘future rainfall’ (2000–2099) is obtained through downscaling of climate outputs projected by the BCCR-BCM2.0 with the
A2 emission scenario. For downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs to basin-scale rainfall, a K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) technique is used. Examination of the nature of rainfall dynamics is made through application of four methods: autocorrelation
function, phase space reconstruction, correlation dimension, and close returns plot. The results are somewhat mixed, depending
upon the method, as to whether the rainfall dynamics are chaotic or stochastic; however, the dynamics of the future rainfall
seem more on the chaotic side than on the stochastic side, and more so when compared to that of the present rainfall. 相似文献
9.
Techniques that identify forestry‐induced changes to streamflow or evaporation are needed to assess available water resources. Equally, there is a growing appreciation that climate cycles may be having a profound impact on the land‐surface hydrology. The ability to see forestry‐induced change above the effects of climate dynamics, therefore, becomes a critical issue. Paired‐catchment analyses have proved very valuable in identifying change, but cannot quantify the relative impacts of climate and land‐cover change, and data from adjacent reference basins are not always available. Within this study, we examined whether step changes within single time‐series of streamflow or evaporation (P‐Q) could be identified without reference to those of a control catchment. The UC‐DHR method was used for this analysis, and included a special routine to allow a known change‐point (e.g. start of logging) to be specified or alternatively identified by the model. Data from three experimental catchments important for their seminal forestry impact studies were selected for the analyses. The study demonstrated that clear‐cutting 29% of the Hore catchment and 40% selective felling of the Berembun basin produced a step change in the discharge trend that was clearly observable above the climate‐related dynamics and uncertainty. In contrast, step changes in P‐Q following the same selective felling event or following 22% afforestation of the Upper Hodder basin were not larger than the uncertainty bands or magnitude of the inter‐annual cycles produced by the climate dynamics, respectively. This demonstrates that while step changes can be observed in single hydrological time‐series, errors within the observations can sometimes mask the identification of change. This masking of change is also possible where the longer‐term cyclical behaviour in Q or P‐Q from natural climate dynamics is large, while the spatial extent of forestry change is small. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Arctic river basins are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. However, there is currently limited knowledge of the hydrological processes that govern flow dynamics in Arctic river basins. We address this research gap using natural hydrochemical and isotopic tracers to identify water sources that contributed to runoff in river basins spanning a gradient of glacierization (0–61%) in Svalbard during summer 2010 and 2011. Spatially distinct hydrological processes operating over diurnal, weekly and seasonal timescales were characterized by river hydrochemistry and isotopic composition. Two conceptual water sources (‘meltwater’ and ‘groundwater’) were identified and used as a basis for end‐member mixing analyses to assess seasonal and year‐to‐year variability in water source dynamics. In glacier‐fed rivers, meltwater dominated flows at all sites (typically >80%) with the highest contributions observed at the beginning of each study period in early July when snow cover was most extensive. Rivers in non‐glacierized basins were sourced initially from snowmelt but became increasingly dependent on groundwater inputs (up to 100% of total flow volume) by late summer. These hydrological changes were attributed to the depletion of snowpacks and enhanced soil water storage capacity as the active layer expanded throughout each melt season. These findings provide insight into the processes that underpin water source dynamics in Arctic river systems and potential future changes in Arctic hydrology that might be expected under a changing climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
Dietmar Straile 《Limnologica》2010,40(2):92-96
The long-term dynamics of the cladoceran Bosmina spp. were analysed in Lake Constance during the study period 1979-1998. During this period the lake ecosystem has been influenced strongly by changes in nutrient inflow (oligotrophication) and by climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Bosmina abundances declined strongly during the study period presumably as an indirect consequence of the reduced P loading of the lake. A detailed seasonally resolved analysis of Bosmina dynamics revealed that its abundance decline occurred throughout the year with the exception of the spring period. The lack of a population decline during spring may be attributed to the seasonal absence of the factor, e.g., food limitation and/or predation control by invertebrates causing the population decline. Additionally, climate variability had its strongest influence on Bosmina dynamics during spring and large climate-associated variability of Bosmina may have decreased the power to detect a significant reduction in spring Bosmina abundances with oligotrophication. However, when we account for the confounding influence of climate variability, the effects of oligotrophication are revealed more clearly also during the spring period. Likewise, the detectability of the influence of climate variability on spring Bosmina dynamics increases when accounting for the reduction of abundances in the course of oligotrophication. 相似文献
12.
Zhang Kun Wu Yang Wang Feifei Li Xuebin Cui Shengcheng Zhang Zihan Wu Xiaoqing Weng Ningquan Luo Tao Huang Yinbo 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2022,65(7):1368-1378
Science China Earth Sciences - The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has unique atmospheric dynamics and thermal structures that originate from its giant terrain and complex climate. High vertical-resolution... 相似文献
13.
Vegetation cover plays an important role in linking the atmosphere, water, and land and is deemed as a key indicator in the terrestrial ecological system. Therefore, it is of great importance to monitor vegetation dynamics and understand the mechanisms of vegetation change, including that driven by climate change. This study examines (a) the evolution of vegetation dynamics over the Heihe River Basin in the typical arid zone in north‐western China using nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Thiel Sen's slope; (b) the relationships between remotely sensed vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) and hydroclimatic variables based on correlation analysis; and (c) the prediction of vegetation anomalies using a multiple linear regression model. For the analysis, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI/EVI product and the gridded daily meteorological data at a spatial resolution of 0.125° over the period 2001–2010 are considered. The results indicate that vegetation cover improved over a large proportion during 2001–2010, with a significant trend towards warm and wet, characterized by an increase in average annual temperature and precipitation by 0.042 °C/year and 5.8 mm/year, respectively. We test the feasibility of NDVI and EVI in quantifying the responses of vegetation anomaly to climate change and develop a statistical model to predict vegetation dynamics in the basin. The NDVI‐based model is found to be more reliable than the EVI‐based model, partly due to the vegetation characteristics and geomorphologic properties of the study region. The proposed model performs well when there is no lag time between meteorological factors and vegetation indices for grassland and cropland, whereas 1‐month lead time prediction is found to be best for forest. The soil water content is introduced as an extra explanatory variable, which effectively improves the prediction accuracy for different land use types. In general, the predictive ability of the proposed model is stable and satisfactory, and the model can provide useful early warning information for regional water resources management under changing climate. 相似文献
14.
Hydrological drivers of wetland vegetation community distribution within Everglades National Park,Florida 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
M. Jason Todd R. Muneepeerakul D. Pumo S. Azaele F. Miralles-Wilhelm A. Rinaldo I. Rodriguez-Iturbe 《Advances in water resources》2010
The influence of hydrological dynamics on vegetation distribution and the structuring of wetland environments is of growing interest as wetlands are modified by human action and the increasing threat from climate change. Hydrological properties have long been considered a driving force in structuring wetland communities. We link hydrological dynamics with vegetation distribution across Everglades National Park (ENP) using two publicly available datasets to study the probability structure of the frequency, duration, and depth of inundation events along with their relationship to vegetation distribution. This study is among the first to show hydrologic structuring of vegetation communities at wide spatial and temporal scales, as results indicate that the percentage of time a location is inundated and its mean depth are the principal structuring variables to which individual communities respond. For example, sawgrass, the most abundant vegetation type within the ENP, is found across a wide range of time inundated percentages and mean depths. Meanwhile, other communities like pine savanna or red mangrove scrub are more restricted in their distribution and found disproportionately at particular depths and inundations. These results, along with the probabilistic structure of hydropatterns, potentially allow for the evaluation of climate change impacts on wetland vegetation community structure and distribution. 相似文献
15.
A. G. Rogozin 《Water Resources》2018,45(5):650-659
The article presents the first study of the long-term dynamics of ice phenomena in lakes of different landscape–climate zones in the Southern Urals. The overwhelming majority of lakes, whatever their typology and geographic occurrence, show a decrease in the duration of the period of ice phenomena at a longer open-water period because of the later freeze-up. The governing factor in the long-term dynamics of ice phenomena is the mean annual air temperature. The largest is the effect of the average air temperature in the freeze-up period (October–March). The morphometric, hydrological, and hydrochemical characteristics have no direct effect on the differences in the long-term dynamics of ice phenomena in individual lakes. These differences are determined by the landscape–climate zones. The difference between water bodies in urbanized landscapes and other water bodies is much greater than that between the lakes in natural landscape–climate zones. 相似文献
16.
We overview studies of the natural variability of past climate, as seen from available proxy information, and its attribution to deterministic or stochastic controls. Furthermore, we characterize this variability over the widest possible range of scales that the available information allows, and we try to connect the deterministic Milankovitch cycles with the Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics. To this aim, we analyse two instrumental series of global temperature and eight proxy series with varying lengths from 2 thousand to 500 million years. In our analysis, we use a simple tool, the climacogram, which is the logarithmic plot of standard deviation versus time scale, and its slope can be used to identify the presence of HK dynamics. By superimposing the climacograms of the different series, we obtain an impressive overview of the variability for time scales spanning almost nine orders of magnitude—from 1 month to 50 million years. An overall climacogram slope of ?0.08 supports the presence of HK dynamics with Hurst coefficient of at least 0.92. The orbital forcing (Milankovitch cycles) is also evident in the combined climacogram at time scales between 10 and 100 thousand years. While orbital forcing favours predictability at the scales it acts, the overview of climate variability at all scales suggests a big picture of irregular change and uncertainty of Earth’s climate. 相似文献
17.
18.
Response spectrum predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong: rock sites 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
N. T. K. Lam A. M. Chandler J. L. Wilson G. L. Hutchinson 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(1)
To realistically assess the seismic risk relating to built infrastructures in Hong Kong and in the neighbouring coastal cities of southern Guangdong province, it is necessary to predict ground shaking induced by different earthquake scenarios with good accuracy. A companion paper has described the modelling of the spatial and temporal distribution of the diffused seismic activities in the region, based on the newly-developed ‘Expanding Circular Disc’ (ECD) method. Representative Magnitude–Distance (M–R) combinations for both near-field and far-field earthquakes (in relation to Hong Kong) have been derived using the ECD method. The present paper describes the modelling of the response spectrum on rock sites associated with the predicted M–R combinations, using the Component Attenuation Model (CAM) that was also developed recently by the authors, based on stochastic simulations of the seismological model. The significant effects of soil resonance on the response spectrum are described in a separate publication.The accuracy of CAM in modelling ground motion properties on rock sites has been tested here by comparisons with (i) strong motions recorded in Taiwan and South China from the 1999 ‘Chi-Chi’ earthquake in Taiwan (M=7.6), (ii) motions recorded in South China from another earthquake occurring in the southern Taiwan Strait in the same year (M=5.1), and (iii) historical seismic intensity data obtained within South China. The overall capability of CAM in modelling both near-field and far-field attenuation has been shown to be unmatched by existing empirical models. Results of the comparison studies confirm the accuracy of CAM, particularly within an epicentral distance of 300–400 km.This study shows that the developed serviceability response spectra (i.e. at short return periods) are controlled mainly by the earthquake recurrence behaviour of major distant seismic sources. In contrast, the ultimate response spectra (i.e. at long return periods) relate to events with magnitudes close to the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) limit, the effect of which may also be represented by the Characteristic Response Spectrum (CRS). Both types of earthquake scenario can be significantly affected by the regional crustal properties. The proposed response spectrum envelopes have been compared with previously developed recommendations, and a critical review has been conducted. The intrinsic advantages of the ECD–CAM modelling approach have been highlighted, emphasising its directness and transparency when compared with the more complex process required to implement traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). 相似文献
19.
Influence of the Precipitating Energetic Particles on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We evaluate the influence of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR), solar proton events (SPE), and energetic electron precipitation (EEP) on chemical composition of the atmosphere, dynamics, and climate using the chemistry-climate model SOCOL. We have carried out two 46-year long runs. The reference run is driven by a widely employed forcing set and, for the experiment run, we have included additional sources of NO x and HO x caused by all considered energetic particles. The results show that the effects of the GCR, SPE, and EEP fluxes on the chemical composition are most pronounced in the polar mesosphere and upper stratosphere; however, they are also detectable and statistically significant in the lower atmosphere consisting of an ozone increase up to 3?% in the troposphere and ozone depletion up to 8?% in the middle stratosphere. The thermal effect of the ozone depletion in the stratosphere propagates down, leading to a warming by up to 1?K averaged over 46?years over Europe during the winter season. Our results suggest that the energetic particles are able to affect atmospheric chemical composition, dynamics, and climate. 相似文献