共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
Spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover on the Chinese Loess Plateau(1981―2006):Impacts of climate changes and human activities 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Spatiotemporal variations of Chinese Loess Plateau vegetation cover during 1981-2006 have been investigated using GIMMS and SPOT VGT NDVI data and the cause of vegetation cover changes has been analyzed, considering the climate changes and human activities. Vegetation cover changes on the Loess Plateau have experienced four stages as follows: (1) vegetation cover showed a continued increasing phase during 1981―1989; (2) vegetation cover changes came into a relative steady phase with small fluctuations during 1990―1998; (3) vegetation cover declined rapidly during 1999―2001; and (4) vegetation cover increased rapidly during 2002―2006. The vegetation cover changes of the Loess Plateau show a notable spatial difference. The vegetation cover has obviously increased in the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia plain along the Yellow River and the ecological rehabilitated region of Ordos Plateau, however the vegetation cover evidently decreased in the hilly and gully areas of Loess Plateau, Liupan Mountains region and the northern hillside of Qinling Mountains. The response of NDVI to climate changes varied with different vegetation types. NDVI of sandy land vegetation, grassland and cultivated land show a significant increasing trend, but forest shows a decreasing trend. The results obtained in this study show that the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover are the outcome of climate changes and human activities. Temperature is a control factor of the seasonal change of vegetation growth. The increased temperature makes soil drier and unfavors vegetation growth in summer, but it favors vegetation growth in spring and autumn because of a longer growing period. There is a significant correlation between vegetation cover and precipitation and thus, the change in precipitation is an important factor for vegetation variation. The improved agricultural production has resulted in an increase of NDVI in the farmland, and the implementation of large-scale vegetation construction has led to some beneficial effect in ecology. 相似文献
2.
Spatiotemporal variations of Chinese Loess Plateau vegetation cover during 1981–2006 have been investigated using GIMMS and
SPOT VGT NDVI data and the cause of vegetation cover changes has been analyzed, considering the climate changes and human
activities. Vegetation cover changes on the Loess Plateau have experienced four stages as follows: (1) vegetation cover showed
a continued increasing phase during 1981–1989; (2) vegetation cover changes came into a relative steady phase with small fluctuations
during 1990–1998; (3) vegetation cover declined rapidly during 1999–2001; and (4) vegetation cover increased rapidly during
2002–2006. The vegetation cover changes of the Loess Plateau show a notable spatial difference. The vegetation cover has obviously
increased in the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia plain along the Yellow River and the ecological rehabilitated region of Ordos
Plateau, however the vegetation cover evidently decreased in the hilly and gully areas of Loess Plateau, Liupan Mountains
region and the northern hillside of Qinling Mountains. The response of NDVI to climate changes varied with different vegetation
types. NDVI of sandy land vegetation, grassland and cultivated land show a significant increasing trend, but forest shows
a decreasing trend. The results obtained in this study show that the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover are the
outcome of climate changes and human activities. Temperature is a control factor of the seasonal change of vegetation growth.
The increased temperature makes soil drier and unfavors vegetation growth in summer, but it favors vegetation growth in spring
and autumn because of a longer growing period. There is a significant correlation between vegetation cover and precipitation
and thus, the change in precipitation is an important factor for vegetation variation. The improved agricultural production
has resulted in an increase of NDVI in the farmland, and the implementation of large-scale vegetation construction has led
to some beneficial effect in ecology.
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40671019) and the Knowledge Innovation Project of
the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research of Chinese Academy of Sciences 相似文献
3.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a key input to hydrological models. Its estimation has often been via the Penman–Monteith (P–M) equation, most recently in the form of an estimate of reference evapotranspiration (RET) as recommended by FAO‐56. In this paper the Shuttleworth–Wallace (S–W) model is implemented to estimate PET directly in a form that recognizes vegetation diversity and temporal change without reference to experimental measurements and without calibration. The threshold values of vegetation parameters are drawn from the literature based on the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme land cover classification. The spatial and temporal variation of the LAI of vegetation is derived from the composite NOAA‐AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a method based on the SiB2 model, and the Climate Research Unit database is used to provide the required meteorological data. All these data inputs are publicly and globally available. Consequently, the implementation of the S–W model developed in this study is applicable at the global scale, an essential requirement if it is to be applied in data‐poor or ungauged large basins. A comparison is made between the FAO‐56 method and the S–W model when applied to the Yellow River basin for the whole of the last century. The resulting estimates of RET and PET and their association with vegetation types and leaf area index (LAI) are examined over the whole basin both annual and monthly and at six specific points. The effect of NDVI on the PET estimate is further evaluated by replacing the monthly NDVI product with the 10‐day product. Multiple regression relationships between monthly PET, RET, LAI, and climatic variables are explored for categories of vegetation types. The estimated RET is a good climatic index that adequately reflects the temporal change and spatial distribution of climate over the basin, but the PET estimated using the S–W model not only reflects the changes in climate, but also the vegetation distribution and the development of vegetation in response to climate. Although good statistical relationships can be established between PET, RET and/or climatic variables, applying these relationships likely will result in large errors because of the strong non‐linearity and scatter between the PET and the LAI of vegetation. It is concluded that use of the implementation of the S–W model described in this study results in a physically sound estimate of PET that accounts for changing land surface conditions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Long‐term hydrological response to reforestation in a large watershed in southeastern China 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The long‐term hydrological response to reforestation is critical to regional water management, especially in areas where large‐scale reforestation has been practiced. In this study, we investigated the long‐term hydrological response to reforestation in the 579 km2 basin in southeastern China through ground‐based monitoring of water yield, sedimentation, vegetation cover and climate in the basin. The vegetation dynamics were also examined by remote sensing data (MSS, Landsat and AVHRR NDVI). We found that forest cover increased 23% or 13 593 ha from 1975 to 2002. Meanwhile, annual water yield decreased 86–88 mm from 1971–1983 (i.e. pre‐reforestation) to 1984–2009 (i.e. post‐reforestation). These decreases were significant statistically according to both regression and double mass analyses. Time series analysis demonstrated that there was a clear decline in annual sediment yield and an increase in annual evapotranspiration (ET) over the period from 1971 to 2009. We concluded that reforestation could significantly reduce annual water yield and sediment yield in the basin because of the forest cover change and forest growth. This conclusion is consistent with findings from widely paired‐watershed studies and literatures published on the impact of reforestation in large watersheds. Our results also have important strategic implications and provide insight into more sustainable forest management practices for the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Based on measured stream nitrogen concentrations at outlets of 12 small sub‐areas (1·3–54·7 km2) in a largely forested catchment during the base flow period, we investigated the influences of discharges and different catchment characteristics on stream nitrogen concentration. Our field surveys were carried out during the 11‐month's period from April 2001 to February 2002 and the correlations between nitrogen concentrations and catchment characteristics were studied. The results showed that the vegetation cover was strongly correlated to total nitrogen (TN) and nitrate + nitrite ? nitrogen (NOx‐N) concentrations. That is, the TN and NOx‐N concentrations had positive correlations with mean normalized difference vegetation cover index (NDVI) of each sub‐area during dormant seasons (mean NDVI < 0 · 70) and had negative correlations during the growing season (mean NDVI ≥ 0 . 70). The significance of catchment characteristics to TN and NOx‐N concentrations was ranked as vegetation cover > soil > topography > land use, and the best models can account for 55–64% of the variance of TN and NOx‐N concentrations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
干旱是影响社会发展和农业生产的重要因素之一。本文基于EOS/MODIS卫星遥感资料,选取江西省2001-2006年的NDVI时间序列数据,分析了NDVI对干旱的响应规律。计算了NDVI与气温、降水之间的关系。并提取植被状态指数(VCI),分析VCI与气温距平、降水距平的空间分布规律。结果表明:2003年江西夏季旱灾以高温少雨天气为主。这一时期的NDVI数值明显低于其他年份同一时期的NDVI值。气温温度越高,NDVI值越大;日照时数时间越长,NDVI值越大;降水量越高,NDVI值越大;降水距平百分率越高,VCI值越高;平均温度距平越小,VCI值越高。说明气候因素对NDVI指数和VCI指数有很大影响。研究表明,基于MODIS的植被指数可以反映旱灾的时空分布规律。 相似文献
7.
Vegetation indices derived from remote sensing data still remain to be used for analysing the relationship between climatic factors and vegetation seasonal phenology in middle latitudes with subtropical conditions forests such as the Canarian laurel forest. The Garajonay National Park, located in the La Gomera Island, protects one of the best preserved examples of the Macaronesian laurel forest, due to the cloud banks produced by trade winds, with rainfall and temperature field data showing a clear Mediterranean climatic pattern. We have analysed seasonal vegetation indices trend for different types of forest inside the Garajonay National Park using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) products derived from moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) Aqua data for two hydrological years (October 2003 to September 2005) in relationship with the existing field climatic data: rainfall, net fog water and temperature. Maximum annual EVI maps show the highest vegetation indices in the laurel forest of La Gomera that occur during the dry season, mainly in late spring to early summer, with EVI temporal profiles showing that valley‐bottom laurel forest areas have the most clear seasonal trend. Difference maps of EVI values between months with the lowest and highest rainfall of each hydrological year clearly confirm the highest photosynthetic activity in the laurel forest during the dry season. In addition, these forests show a significative temporal correlation between EVI values and the temperature in the forest (p < 0·001). Our results prove the absence of summer drought stress in the laurel forest implying that the fog drip income is high enough to maintain enough soil moisture to allow the forest fully transpire when temperatures are higher. As the laurel forest of La Gomera occurs in the main recharge area of the island's aquifer system, our analysis of EVI data suggests that fog drip constitutes a key hydrological factor. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Evapotranspiration (ET), a key component of the hydrological cycle, affects the transport of water and energy in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere system. Thus, quantifying the driving forces of ET dynamics is important to ensure rational water resource utilization. Based on meteorological and satellite data, spatiotemporal dynamics of ET were detected using the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model, and effects of climate variability and landscape pattern change on ET dynamics in an arid to semiarid landscape mosaic during the growing season (April-October) from 2001 to 2015 in Xilingol League, China were evaluated. The results indicated that (a) a significant increase (P < .05) in ET was found in the north-eastern Xilingol League, and a significant decrease (P < .05) in ET was confined to the southwest and (b) climate variability had significant effects on ET dynamics. All climatic factors showed a positive correlation relationship with ET dynamics, and mean temperature (Ta) was the most influential climatic factor on ET dynamics followed by relative humidity (Rh), wind speed (Ws), and precipitation (Pr), respectively. The influence of landscape pattern change on ET dynamics was mainly reflected in the increase of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) promoting ET dynamics. Several other landscape pattern metrics also had important impacts on ET dynamics, which were mainly reflected in the positive effect of the aggregation index (AI) on ET dynamics and the negative effects of the largest patch index (LPI), edge density (ED), and percentage of landscape (PLAND) on ET dynamics. To promote effective water resource utilization, landscape managers should continue to moderately implement vegetation restoration projects such as the Grain for Green Project, orient with conversion of low-quality cropland into grassland, and conserve large areas of grassland. Appropriate management measures for forests and cropland scattered in the landscape mosaic, based on local climate and soil properties, as well as socioeconomic goals, are also required. 相似文献
9.
Aierken Tuersun Yusufujiang Rusuli Aizezitiyuemaier Maimaiti Miriayi Maitudi Kadiayi Alimu 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2020,48(5-6)
The Bosten Lake watershed investigated in this study has seen significant land cover and climate change. The spatiotemporal relationship between evapotranspiration (ET) and environmental factors remain unclear. In this study, trend analysis and correlation methods are applied to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of ET and the relationship between ET and its driving factors using remotely sensed ET data and measured climate data between 2001 and 2018. During the study period, high values of ET primarily occurr in the wetlands of the plain area and the mid‐elevation mountain areas. The ET values show a significantly increasing trend in the different vegetation types due to climate change and other factors. The ET change trend in the study area is in the range of ?13.4 to ≈35.9 mm per year; the desert area exhibits a significant decrease and most of the mountain areas show a significantly increasing trend. ET is significantly correlated with land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and solar radiation. The dominant factor affecting ET is NDVI, accounting for 15.2% of the study area. The results of this study highlight the need for appropriate land‐use strategies for managing water resources in arid land ecosystems. 相似文献
10.
流域植被覆盖状况对于水源地生态环境保护具有重要的指示作用.当前的水质目标管理不仅要着眼于湖库水质参数控制,更应该从整个流域的角度维系生态平衡.在此背景下,依托长时间序列MODIS遥感数据对千岛湖流域2001-2013年植被覆盖状况进行监测,采用最小二乘法趋势分析和Mann-Kendall显著性检验方法分析了千岛湖流域植被的空间分布特征、时间变化特征与长期变化趋势.研究表明该方法能够有效地监测流域植被覆盖的时空动态变化:1)从空间分布上来看,千岛湖流域植被覆盖状况整体较好,但同时也发现受人为干扰较大的地域如河、湖附近的城镇建设用地、农业用地以及园地,其NDVI值明显低于自然林地;2)从时间变化特征上看,2001-2013年千岛湖流域植被年际NDVI在0.69~0.73之间波动,且近年来有增长趋势,年内季节性NDVI动态分析表明高时间分辨率的MODIS数据能够用来区分常绿植被与落叶植被的物候特征,以分析不同植被类型对流域氮、磷流失的风险差异;3)从变化趋势上看,2001-2013年植被覆盖状况改善的区域远大于退化的区域,其中改善区域约占流域面积的55.90%,呈现出一定退化状态的区域约占29.60%(严重退化区域仅占3.97%),而相对稳定不变区域约占14.51%.经与气温与降水等气候因子进行相关性分析表明,植被NDVI与气温呈显著正相关,而降水则不敏感,说明气温是研究区植被生长的主导气候因子.同时发现,人类活动对局部植被变化影响较大.研究结果可为流域水资源与生态环境保护提供空间数据支撑. 相似文献
11.
Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region. 相似文献
12.
13.
In this study, the vegetation dynamics and their correlations with climate variability in northern China were evaluated based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological datasets from 1982 to 2006. The NDVI showed that vegetation cover had a tiny increasing trend for whole study area in the past 25 years. However, the interannual changes of NDVI were different in each season. The part of spring and autumn NDVI values increased significantly, while the summer NDVI increased no significantly. And the interannual variations of the NDVI showed obvious spatial differentiations. The annual max NDVI increased were mainly distributed in most areas of grassland and farmland, whereas the annual max NDVI decreased were mainly distributed in forest areas. The annual NDVI and temperature had more important relationships. Thus, as compared to precipitation, the correlation between NDVI with temperature was stronger than the precipitation in northern China. NDVI and climatic variables were different in each season. The NDVI trends exhibited a close correspondence to climatological variations in region and season. In Addition, human activities also had profound effect to the NDVI trends in some regions. All these findings will make humans know more about the knowledge of the natural forces that influence vegetation change and supply a scientific basic resource to for the environmental management in northern China. 相似文献
14.
Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Stephen K. Hamilton M. Z. Hussain Christopher Lowrie B. Basso G. P. Robertson 《水文研究》2018,32(5):655-663
In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years. 相似文献
15.
Vegetation turnover in a braided river: frequency and effectiveness of floods of different magnitude 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Nicola Surian Matteo Barban Luca Ziliani Giovanni Monegato Walter Bertoldi Francesco Comiti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(4):542-558
This work addresses the temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation in large braided rivers, exploring the relationship between vegetation erosion and flood magnitude. In particular, it investigates the existence of a threshold discharge, or a range of discharges, above which erosion of vegetated patches within the channel occurs. The research was conducted on a 14 km long reach of the Tagliamento River, a braided river in north‐eastern Italy. Ten sets of aerial photographs were used to investigate vegetation dynamics in the period 1954–2011. By using different geographic information system (GIS) procedures, three aspects of geomorphic‐vegetation dynamics and interactions were addressed: (i) long‐term (1954–2011) channel evolution and vegetation dynamics; (ii) the relationship between vegetation erosion/establishment and flow regime; (iii) vegetation turnover, in the period 1986–2011. Results show that vegetation turnover is remarkably rapid in the study reach with 50% of in‐channel vegetation persisting for less than 5–6 years and only 10% of vegetation persisting for more than 18–19 years. The analysis shows that significant vegetation erosion is determined by relatively frequent floods, i.e. floods with a recurrence interval of c. 1–2.5 years, although some differences exist between sub‐reaches with different densities of vegetation cover. These findings suggest that the erosion of riparian vegetation in braided rivers may not be controlled solely by very large floods, as is the case for lower energy gravel‐bed rivers. Besides flow regime, other factors seem to play a significant role for in‐channel vegetation cover over long time spans. In particular, erosion of marginal vegetation, which supplies large wood elements to the channel, increased notably over the study period and was an important factor for in‐channel vegetation trends. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
The relative role of soil type and tree cover on water storage and transmission in northern headwater catchments 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Soil water storage and stable isotopes dynamics were investigated in dominant soil–vegetation assemblages of a wet northern headwater catchment (3.2 km2) with limited seasonality in precipitation. We determined the relative influence of soil and vegetation cover on storage and transmission processes. Forested and non‐forested sites were compared, on poorly drained histosols in riparian zones and freely draining podzols on steeper hillslopes. Results showed that soil properties exert a much stronger influence than vegetation on water storage dynamics and fluxes, both at the plot and catchment scale. This is mainly linked to the overall energy‐limited climate, restricting evaporation, in conjunction with high soil water storage capacities. Threshold behaviour in runoff responses at the catchment scale was associated with differences in soil water storage and transmission dynamics of different hydropedological units. Linear input–output relationships occurred when runoff was generated predominantly from the permanently wet riparian histosols, which show only small dynamic storage changes. In contrast, nonlinear runoff generation was related to transient periods of high soil wetness on the hillslopes. During drier conditions, more marked differences in soil water dynamics related to vegetation properties emerged, in terms of evaporation and impacts on temporarily increasing dynamic storage potential. Overall, our results suggest that soil type and their influence on runoff generation are dominant over vegetation effects in wet, northern headwater catchments with low seasonality in precipitation. Potential increase of subsurface storage by tree cover (e.g. for flood management) will therefore be spatially distributed throughout the landscape and limited to rare and extreme dry conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Vanesa Martínez‐Fernández Mijke Van Oorschot Marta González del Tánago Anthonie D. Buijse 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(9):1825-1835
Climate change is expected to alter temperatures and precipitation patterns, affecting river flows and hence riparian corridors. In this context we have explored the potential evolution of riparian corridors under a dryness gradient of flow regimes associated with climate change in a Mediterranean river. We have applied an advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic model incorporating interactions between hydro‐morphodynamics and vegetation. Five scenarios, representing drier conditions and more extreme events, and an additional reference scenario without climate change, have been designed and extended until the year 2100. The vegetation model assesses colonization, growth and mortality of Salicaceae species. We analysed the lower course of the Curueño River, a free flowing gravel bed river (NW Spain), as a representative case study of the Mediterranean region. Modelling results reveal that climate change will affect both channel morphology and riparian vegetation in terms of cover, age distribution and mortality. Reciprocal interactions between flow conditions and riparian species as bio‐engineers are predicted to promote channel narrowing, which becomes more pronounced as dryness increases. Reductions in seedling cover and increases in sapling and mature forest cover are predicted for all climate change scenarios compared with the reference scenario, and the suitable area for vegetation development declines and shifts towards lower floodplain elevations. Climate change also leads to younger vegetation becoming more subject to uprooting and flooding. The predicted reduction in suitable establishment areas and the narrowing of vegetated belts threatens the persistence of the current riparian community. This study highlights the usefulness of advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic modelling for assessing climate change effects on fluvial landscapes. It also illustrates the need to consider climate change in river management to identify appropriate adaptation measures for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Modifications are made to the revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney erosion prediction model to enable the effects of vegetation cover to be expressed through measurable plant parameters. Given the potential role of vegetation in controlling water pollution by trapping clay particles in the landscape, changes are also made to the way the model deals with sediment deposition and to allow the model to incorporate particle‐size selectivity in the processes of erosion, transport and deposition. Vegetation effects are described in relation to percentage canopy cover, percentage ground cover, plant height, effective hydrological depth, density of plant stems and stem diameter. Deposition is modelled through a particle fall number, which takes account of particle settling velocity, flow velocity, flow depth and slope length. The detachment, transport and deposition of soil particles are simulated separately for clay, silt and sand. Average linear sensitivity analysis shows that the revised model behaves rationally. For bare soil conditions soil loss predictions are most sensitive to changes in rainfall and soil parameters, but with a vegetation cover plant parameters become more important than soil parameters. Tests with the model using field measurements under a range of slope, soil and crop covers from Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire, UK, give good predictions of mean annual soil loss. Regression analysis of predicted against observed values yields an intercept value close to zero and a line slope close to 1·0, with a coefficient of efficiency of 0·81 over a range of values from zero to 38·6 t ha?1. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Lan Cuo Tazebe K. Beyene Nathalie Voisin Fengge Su Dennis P. Lettenmaier Marina Alberti Jeffrey E. Richey 《水文研究》2011,25(11):1729-1753
The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid‐twenty‐first century. A 60‐year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi‐decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub‐basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double‐digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献