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1.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion may be reduced by using natural gas rather than coal to produce energy. Gas produces approximately half the amount of CO2 per unit of primary energy compared with coal. Here we consider a scenario where a fraction of coal usage is replaced by natural gas (i.e., methane, CH4) over a given time period, and where a percentage of the gas production is assumed to leak into the atmosphere. The additional CH4 from leakage adds to the radiative forcing of the climate system, offsetting the reduction in CO2 forcing that accompanies the transition from coal to gas. We also consider the effects of: methane leakage from coal mining; changes in radiative forcing due to changes in the emissions of sulfur dioxide and carbonaceous aerosols; and differences in the efficiency of electricity production between coal- and gas-fired power generation. On balance, these factors more than offset the reduction in warming due to reduced CO2 emissions. When gas replaces coal there is additional warming out to 2,050 with an assumed leakage rate of 0%, and out to 2,140 if the leakage rate is as high as 10%. The overall effects on global-mean temperature over the 21st century, however, are small.  相似文献   

2.
Minimizing the future impacts of climate change requires reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) load in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions include many types of GHG’s as well as particulates such as black carbon and sulfate aerosols, each of which has a different effect on the atmosphere, and a different atmospheric lifetime. Several recent studies have advocated for the importance of short timescales when comparing the climate impact of different climate pollutants, placing a high relative value on short-lived pollutants, such as methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) versus carbon dioxide (CO2). These studies have generated confusion over how to value changes in temperature that occur over short versus long timescales. We show the temperature changes that result from exchanging CO2 for CH4 using a variety of commonly suggested metrics to illustrate the trade-offs involved in potential carbon trading mechanisms that place a high value on CH4 emissions. Reducing CH4 emissions today would lead to a climate cooling of approximately ~0.5 °C, but this value will not change greatly if we delay reducing CH4 emissions by years or decades. This is not true for CO2, for which the climate is influenced by cumulative emissions. Any delay in reducing CO2 emissions is likely to lead to higher cumulative emissions, and more warming. The exact warming resulting from this delay depends on the trajectory of future CO2 emissions but using one business-as usual-projection we estimate an increase of 3/4 °C for every 15-year delay in CO2 mitigation. Overvaluing the influence of CH4 emissions on climate could easily result in our “locking” the earth into a warmer temperature trajectory, one that is temporarily masked by the short-term cooling effects of the CH4 reductions, but then persists for many generations.  相似文献   

3.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hydroelectric Reservoirs in Tropical Regions   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  
This paper discusses emissions by power-dams in the tropics. Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical power-dams are produced underwater through biomass decomposition by bacteria. The gases produced in these dams are mainly nitrogen, carbon dioxide and methane. A methodology was established for measuring greenhouse gases emitted by various power-dams in Brazil. Experimental measurements of gas emissions by dams were made to determine accurately their emissions of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) gases through bubbles formed on the lake bottom by decomposing organic matter, as well as rising up the lake gradient by molecular diffusion.The main source of gas in power-dams reservoirs is the bacterial decomposition (aerobic and anaerobic) of autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter that basically produces CO2 and CH4. The types and modes of gas production and release in the tropics are reviewed.  相似文献   

4.
This paper provides estimates of emissions of two important but often not well-characterized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to transportation energy use: methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The paper focuses on emissions of CH4 and N2O from motor vehicles because unlike emissions of CO2, which are relatively easy to estimate, emissions of CH4 and N2O are a function of many complex aspects of combustion dynamics and of the type of emission control systems used. They therefore cannot be derived easily and instead must be determined through the use of published emission factors for each combination of fuel, end-use technology, combustion conditions, and emission control system. Furthermore, emissions of CH4 and N2O may be particularly important with regard to the relative CO2-equivalent GHG emissions of the use of alternative transportation fuels, in comparison with the use of conventional fuels. By analyzing a database of emission estimates, we develop emission factors for N2O and CH4 from conventional vehicles, in order to supplement recent EPA and IPCC estimates, and we estimate relative emissions of N2O and CH4 from different alternative fuel passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and heavy-duty vehicles.  相似文献   

5.
As part of the second Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP II) continuous measurements of atmospheric aerosol black carbon (BC) were made at the NOAA/GMCC observatory at Barrow, Alaska (71°19N, 156°36W) during the period March 21–April 22, 1986. Black carbon is produced only by incomplete combustion of carbonaceous materials and so is a particularly useful atmospheric indicator of anthropogenic activities. The BC data have been analyzed together with the concurrent measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and condensation nuclei (CN) that are routinely made at the observatory. All four species showed elevated and highly variable concentrations due to local human activities, principally in the township of Barrow, 7 km to the southwest, and at the DEW Line radar installation 1 km to the northwest. We distinguish between those periods of the record that are affected by local activities and those that are not, on the basis of the short-term (periods of up to 1 hour) variability of the continuous CO2 and CN records, with large short-term variabilities indicating local sources. We identified seven periods of time (events) with durations ranging from 13 to 37 hours when the BC, CO2, and CH4 concentrations changed smoothly over time, were highly correlated with each other, and were not influenced by local activities. These events had BC/CO2 ratios in the range (50–103)×10–6. These ratios are dimensionless since we convert the CO2 concentrations to units of ng m–3 of carbon. Such values of BC/CO2 are characteristic of the combustion effluent from large installations burning heavy fuel oil or coal, automobiles, and domestic-scale natural gas usage. We conclude that these events are indicative of air masses that have been polluted with combustion emissions in a distant location and then transported to the Arctic. In the absence of species-selective loss mechanisms, these air masses will maintain their combustion effluent signatures during the transport. The BC/CO2 ratios found for the local combustion activities are consistent with those expected from known combustion processes.  相似文献   

6.
Sergio Pacca 《Climatic change》2007,84(3-4):281-294
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hydroelectric dams are often portrayed as nonexistent by the hydropower industry and have been largely ignored in global comparisons of different sources of electricity. However, the life cycle assessment (LCA) of any hydroelectric plant shows that GHG emissions occur at different phases of the power plant’s life. This work examines the role of decommissioning hydroelectric dams in greenhouse gas emissions. Accumulated sediments in reservoirs contain noticeable levels of carbon, which may be released to the atmosphere upon decommissioning of the dam. The rate of sediment accumulation and the sediment volume for six of the ten largest United States hydroelectric power plants is surveyed. The amount of sediments and the respective carbon content at the moment of dam decommissioning (100 years after construction) was estimated. The released carbon is partitioned into CO2 and CH4 emissions and converted to CO2 equivalent emissions using the global warming potential (GWP) method. The global warming effect (GWE) due to dam decommissioning is normalized to the total electricity produced over the lifetime of each power plant. The estimated GWE of the power plants range from 128–380 g of CO2eq./kWh when 11% of the total available sediment organic carbon (SOC) is mineralized and between 35 and 104 g of CO2eq./kWh when 3% of the total SOC is mineralized. Though these values are below emission factors for coal power plants (890 g of CO2eq./kWh), the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the sediments upon dam decommissioning is a notable amount that should not be ignored and must be taken into account when considering construction and relicensing of hydroelectric dams.  相似文献   

7.
This paper identifies a critical systematic error in greenhouse gas accounting in renewable biomass systems. While CO2 emissions from renewable biomass energy systems are generally considered to have a net impact of 0, no similar adjustment is made for carbon-based products of incomplete combustion, such as methane, in renewable systems. This results in an under- or overestimation of the impact of CH4 by 12.3% and CO by ∼478% in renewable systems. This error is propagated both in scientific studies and in carbon accounting policies. We advocate first for full-carbon accounting of biomass-derived emissions, but also provide adjusted global warming impacts for emissions from proven renewable systems.  相似文献   

8.
Carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide are the carbon cycle gases, the data on their emissions are needed when monitoring air pollution and developing methods for reducing anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere and for climate forecasting. The estimates of nocturnal area fluxes for CO2, CH4, and CO presented for a suburb of Saint Petersburg (Peterhof) are obtained using the box model and continuous observations of concentration of these gases. The mean values of CH4, CO2, and CO fluxes estimated for Peterhof for 2014–2015 are 44 ± 27, 6100 ± 4000, and 90 ± 100 t/(km2 year), respectively. The intensity of the CO area flux has pronounced seasonal variations characterized by the maximum of ~(160 ± 120) t/(km2 year) in November—February and by the minimum of ~(30 ± 20) t/(km2 year) in June-July. The analysis of the ratio of CO/CO2 fluxes identified the main types of anthropogenic sources typical of Peterhof: motor transport, natural gas combustion, and the use of wood stoves for the heating of private low-rise buildings (in the cold season).  相似文献   

9.
The rates and mechanisms of both gas and liquid phase reactions for the oxidation of sulfur dioxide play an important role in the production of atmospheric acids and aerosol particles. Rhodeet al. (1981) concluded that sulfate production rates were highly non-linear functions of sulfur dioxide emission rates. Their modelling study used an HO x termination mechanism for the HO—SO2 reaction in the gas-phase. Stockwell and Calvert (1983) determined that one of the products of the overall reaction of HO with sulfur dioxide was an HO2 radical. The National Research Council (1983) using a version of the Rhodeet al. (1981) model modified to include HO2 production from the HO—SO2 reaction concluded that sulfate production becomes much more linear with respect to reductions in sulfur dioxide emissions. However, the cause of this increased linearity was not explained by the National Research Council report. It is demonstrated that the increased linearity is due to the coupling of gas-phases and aqueous phase chemistry. The gas-phase sulfur dioxide oxidation mechanism has a very significant effect on hydrogen perodide production rates.  相似文献   

10.
Several trace sulfur gases that can have a significant influence on atmospheric chemistry are emitted from biological systems. In order to begin to address biological questions on the mechnisms of production of such gases, laboratory-scale experiments have been developed that reproduce such emissions under controlled conditions. Using a flux chamber technique, flats containing soil, or soil plus plants were sampled for the net fluxes of sulfur gases. The major sulfur gas emitted from all the plants tested (corn, alfalfa, and wheat) was dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Alfalfa and wheat also emitted lesser amounts of methanethiol, variable amounls of hydrogen sulfide, and in some experiments wheat emitted carbon disulfide. The use of a plant incubator allowed a systematic study of the effects of variables such as temperature, photon flux, and carbon dioxide levels, on these emissions. Fluxes of all the emitted sulfur gases increased exponentially with increasing air temperature, and increased with increasing photon flux up to a saturation level of \~300 E/m–2 sec-1. Three to four-fold changes in DMS flux were observed during light to dark or dark to light transitions. By varying the CO2 content of the chamber flush gas, it was shown that the observed sulfur fluxes from corn and alfalfa were not related to the CO2 concentration. Growing these crop plants through holes in a Teflon soil-covering film allowed a separate determination of soil and foliage emissions and substantiation of the light dependent uptake of COS by growing vegetation observed in previous field studies.  相似文献   

11.
Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options including CO2 capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO2 prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future, initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role in later years. At higher CO2 prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions.  相似文献   

12.
Today's climate policy is based on the assumption that the location of emissions reductions has no impact on the overall climate effect. However, this may not be the case since reductions of greenhouse gases generally will lead to changes in emissions of short-lived gases and aerosols. Abatement measures may be primarily targeted at reducing CO2, but may also simultaneously reduce emissions of NOx, CO, CH4 and SO2 and aerosols. Emissions of these species may cause significant additional radiative forcing. We have used a global 3-D chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to study the impact on climate in terms of radiative forcing for a realistic change in location of the emissions from large-scale sources. Based on an assumed 10% reduction in CO2 emissions, reductions in the emissions of other species have been estimated. Climate impact for the SRES A1B scenario is compared to two reduction cases, with the main focus on a case with emission reductions between 2010 and 2030, but also a case with sustained emission reductions. The emission reductions are applied to four different regions (Europe, China, South Asia, and South America). In terms of integrated radiative forcing (over 100 yr), the total effect (including only the direct effect of aerosols) is always smaller than for CO2 alone. Large variations between the regions are found (53–86% of the CO2 effect). Inclusion of the indirect effects of sulphate aerosols reduces the net effect of measures towards zero. The global temperature responses, calculated with a simple energy balance model, show an initial additional warming of different magnitude between the regions followed by a more uniform reduction in the warming later. A major part of the regional differences can be attributed to differences related to aerosols, while ozone and changes in methane lifetime make relatively small contributions. Emission reductions in a different sector (e.g. transportation instead of large-scale sources) might change this conclusion since the NOx to SO2 ratio in the emissions is significantly higher for transportation than for large-scale sources. The total climate effect of abatement measures thus depends on (i) which gases and aerosols are affected by the measure, (ii) the lifetime of the measure implemented, (iii) time horizon over which the effects are considered, and (iv) the chemical, physical and meteorological conditions in the region. There are important policy implications of the results. Equal effects of a measure cannot be assumed if the measure is implemented in a different region and if several gases are affected. Thus, the design of emission reduction measures should be considered thoroughly before implementation.  相似文献   

13.
A model of the U.S. automobile market is used to test the role that natural gas vehicles (NGVs) might play in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Since natural gas (primarily methane) emits less CO2 per unit of energy than petroleum products, NGVs are an obvious pathway to lower CO2 emissions. High-and low-demand scenarios are used to forecast the emissions from unrestricted growth and a modest program of conservation, respectively. Based on these scenarios, a reference scenario is developed that projects a possible future path of automobile use and efficiency. It is found that without a dramatic increase in automobile use, fuel consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from automobiles in the United States will probably decrease in the future, provided that efficiency continues to improve at modest rates. In theory, NGVs can help shift emissions even further down.A second objective is to quantify the role that leaking methane might play in offsetting some of the greenhouse advantages of NGVs. To do this, a simple atmospheric chemistry model is applied to the reference scenario; several leak rates and feedback factors are used to test the sensitivity of the projected green-house forcing from now until 2050. Committed warming beyond 2050 is not included, and the results should be interpreted with that in mind.It is highly unlikely that switching automobiles from gasoline to natural gas will appreciably lower future greenhouse forcing. Constraints on vehicle miles travelled as well as continued improvements in vehicle efficiency will make a much larger contribution towards controlling global warming.  相似文献   

14.
Emissions from Russian domestic civil aviation for the period of 2000–2012 are assessed for the following gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. The integrated assessment of their impact on the climate system is performed using the values of the global warming potential. The CO2 equivalent was used as a common measure of emissions. It is established that the modern impact of Russian civil aviation on the Earth climate is insignificant.  相似文献   

15.
Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan, China proposes to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO2 emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Plan, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China's SO2 and NOx emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO2 emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO2 intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the near term pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately.  相似文献   

16.
Unleakable carbon, or the uncombusted methane and carbon dioxide associated with fossil fuel systems, constitutes a potentially large and heretofore unrecognized factor in determining use of Earth’s remaining fossil fuel reserves. Advances in extraction technology have encouraged a shift to natural gas, but the advantage of fuel switching depends strongly on mitigating current levels of unleakable carbon, which can be substantial enough to offset any climate benefit relative to oil or coal. To illustrate the potential warming effect of methane emissions associated with utilizable portions of our remaining natural gas reserves, we use recent data published in peer-reviewed journals to roughly estimate the impact of these emissions. We demonstrate that unless unleakable carbon is curtailed, up to 59–81% of our global natural gas reserves must remain underground if we hope to limit warming to 2°C from 2010 to 2050. Successful climate change mitigation depends on improved quantification of current levels of unleakable carbon and a determination of acceptable levels of these emissions within the context of international climate change agreements.

Policy relevance

It is imperative that companies, investors, and world leaders considering capital expenditures and policies towards continued investment in natural gas fuels do so with a complete understanding of how dependent the ultimate climate benefits are upon increased regulation of unleakable carbon, the uncombusted carbon-based gases associated with fossil fuel systems, otherwise referred to as ‘fugitive’, ‘leaked’, ‘vented’, ‘flared’, or ‘unintended’ emissions. Continued focus on combustion emissions alone, or unburnable carbon, undermines the importance of assessing the full climate impacts of fossil fuels, leading many stakeholders to support near-term mitigation strategies that rely on fuel switching from coal and oil to cleaner burning natural gas. The current lack of transparent accounting of unleakable carbon represents a significant gap in the understanding of what portions of the Earth’s remaining global fossil fuel reserves can be utilized while still limiting global warming to 2°C. Successful climate change mitigation requires that stakeholders confront the issue of both unburnable and unleakable carbon when considering continued investment in and potential expansion of natural gas systems as part of a climate change solution.  相似文献   

17.
We use recent advances in time series econometrics to estimate the relation among emissions of CO2 and CH4, the concentration of these gases, and global surface temperature. These models are estimated and specified to answer two questions; (1) does human activity affect global surface temperature and; (2) does global surface temperature affect the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and/or methane. Regression results provide direct evidence for a statistically meaningful relation between radiative forcing and global surface temperature. A simple model based on these results indicates that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulfur emissions are largely responsible for the change in temperature over the last 130 years. The regression results also indicate that increases in surface temperature since 1870 have changed the flow of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere in a way that increases its atmospheric concentration. Finally, the regression results for methane hint that higher temperatures may increase its atmospheric concentration, but this effect is not estimated precisely.  相似文献   

18.
Strategies for mitigating the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere include sequestering carbon (C) in soils and vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon and nitrogen (N) move through terrestrial ecosystems in coupled biogeochemical cycles, and increasing C stocks in soils and vegetation will have an impact on the N cycle. We conducted simulations with a biogeochemical model to evaluate the impact of different cropland management strategies on the coupled cycles of C and N, with special emphasis on C-sequestration and emission of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Reduced tillage, enhanced crop residue incorporation, and farmyard manure application each increased soil C-sequestration, increased N2O emissions, and had little effect on CH4 uptake. Over 20 years, increases in N2O emissions, which were converted into CO2-equivalent emissions with 100-year global warming potential multipliers, offset 75–310% of the carbon sequestered, depending on the scenario. Quantification of these types of biogeochemical interactions must be incorporated into assessment frameworks and trading mechanisms to accurately evaluate the value of agricultural systems in strategies for climate protection.  相似文献   

19.
In this paper we study the impact of alternative metrics on short- and long-term multi-gas emission reduction strategies and the associated global and regional economic costs and emissions budgets. We compare global warming potentials with three different time horizons (20, 100, 500 years), global temperature change potential and global cost potentials with and without temperature overshoot. We find that the choice of metric has a relatively small impact on the CO2 budget compatible with the 2° target and therefore on global costs. However it substantially influences mid-term emission levels of CH4, which may either rise or decline in the next decades as compared to today’s levels. Though CO2 budgets are not affected much, we find changes in CO2 prices which substantially affect regional costs. Lower CO2 prices lead to more fossil fuel use and therefore higher resource prices on the global market. This increases profits of fossil-fuel exporters. Due to the different weights of non-CO2 emissions associated with different metrics, there are large differences in nominal CO2 equivalent budgets, which do not necessarily imply large differences in the budgets of the single gases. This may induce large shifts in emission permit trade, especially in regions where agriculture with its high associated CH4 emissions plays an important role. Furthermore it makes it important to determine CO2 equivalence budgets with respect to the chosen metric. Our results suggest that for limiting warming to 2 °C in 2100, the currently used GWP100 performs well in terms of global mitigation costs despite its conceptual simplicity.  相似文献   

20.
Summary Many climate scientists have suggested that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may create severe climate problems for Britain; however, the potential cooling effects of sulphur dioxide are widely acknowledged. In this investigation, we analyze British mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal air temperature range over the period 1929–1988. Our analyses of these records reveal (a) a shift in the early 1950s away from warming and toward cooling, (b) a relative decline in maximum air temperatures when compared to minimum air temperatures, (c) a strong decline in the diurnal air temperature range and (d) a significant linkage between diurnal temperature range and precipitation. Given these signals in the observed climate record, it would appear that SO2 rather than CO2 has been the major anthropogenic climate influence in Britain over the past four decades.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

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