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不同时间尺度下气候变化基本特征的探索 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
气候物理量的序列是非平稳的,多层次的,奇异突变的。本文利用子波变换的方法研究一个（长度为１３４年的北半球）气温距平序列的突变点数目随变换尺度的变化,得到该数目随变换尺度减小呈幂律增加的结论,即若以突变点数为测度,上述距平序列是一个标度律为１．２的自相似集。温度突变点数随变换尺度的变化曲线在双对数坐标中的行为与魔鬼楼梯相似,本文称之为“气候魔鬼楼梯”。该楼梯的本征分辨率序列近似以等比（比值在１．６～１．７之间）延伸,与Ｆｉｂｏｎａｃｃｉ数相邻元素之比（黄金分割比）１．６１８近似。将子波变换曲面的槽脊线投影在变换尺度和时间构成的平面上,得到极值线分岔图,据此图分析分岔沿变换尺度发生的速度 相似文献
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上海气温资料的子波分析 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
如何分析气候系统在不同层次上的结构及其特性是气候研究中的一个重要问题。本文分别用墨西哥帽式子波和孤立波式子波对上海１８８１－１９８０年年平均气温资料进行了子波分析。结果表明：两种子波都十分明显，并有效地揭示了该系统不同层次的奇异点、奇异值及其精细结构。墨西哥帽式子波所揭示的不同尺度的突变点均表现为过零点（零距平）的拐点，而在孤立波式子波分析中不同尺度系统的突变性则表现为峰谷之间的转换。子波分析法的 相似文献
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中国"代"尺度气候预测 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
将子波分析技术与随机动力学相结合,提出了突变点数建模代尺度气候预测新技术—突变点数建模技术,并将该技术应用于中国不同地区代尺度的干湿驰豫时间的预报。研究结果表明,在代尺度上,我国北方、西南和东南气候灾害频繁,南方多涝,西北和北方(不包括东北)则多旱。由于该技术是关于时间序列建模的,故可以应用到水文、地震、生态等领域有关的建模和预测。 相似文献
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在综合分析了近几十年气候资料的基础上，揭示了本世纪60年代的一次亚非夏季风十年尺度的突变。这次突变在地面温度场上表现为突变前亚非大陆是正距平，印度洋和西太平洋为负距平，海陆温差较强；突变后相反，海陆温差减弱。地面气压由突变前亚非大陆强热低压中心转变为突变后的弱低压中心。同时突变前北非和东亚夏季风增强，而突变后明显减弱。这次十年尺度的气候突变突出表现了东亚季风、印度季风和北非季风明显的变化同步性，而最显著的特征是在行星尺度的降水场上从北非撒哈拉－萨赫勒、中东、印度北部到华北干旱半干旱带上由多雨变为少雨的雨量减少带。 相似文献
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广东省40多年来高温天气的时空变化特征 总被引：29，自引：28，他引：1
利用广东省76个气象站1962～2004年高温日数资料,通过经验正交函数分解和小波变换方法,对广东省高温天气的时空变化及低频振荡特征进行了研究。结果表明,广东高温天气的空间分布以全省一致型为主,部分年份还呈现南北差异型分布。高温日数波动在20世纪90年代末及以后最剧烈,其次为80年代,在60年代末至70年代初期间最稳定;气候突变发生在1998年。对时间系数进行小波变换发现,前两个特征向量的时间系数均具有显著的周期振荡特征,周期尺度也随时间的变化而变化。 相似文献
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齐齐哈尔市气温变化小波分析 总被引：9，自引：3，他引：9
利用1909年1月至2002年12月逐月平均气温距平资料和Morlet小波变换方法，对齐齐哈尔市气温变化的年际、年代际周期以及突变特征进行了分析。得出近百年来齐齐哈尔市气温变化具有准2、4、4～6、8年左右的年际尺度和40～60年的年代际尺度周期变化，并存在突变特征，齐齐哈尔市气温变化是不同尺度周期振荡综合作用的结果。所得结论对齐齐哈尔市的短期气候预测具有一定的参考意义。 相似文献
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Using multi-resolution theory of wavelet analysis,this paper studies the multi-scale structure of surface air temperature variations for the Northern Hemisphere and China during the last one hundred years.The results show that the climatic variations for the Northern Hemisphere can be described as 3 hierarchies corresponding to the larger-scale changes.They are the cold period before 1919,the warm period from 1920 to 1978 and the warmer period after 1979.The larger-scale hierarchical changes obviously show qualities of climate jump.The years 1920 and 1979 are the jump points of climate change.The surface air temperature variations for China are not entirely analogous to the Northern Hemisphere,and the main contrasts are that China is in the cold period after 1955 and the jump point of warming is 1987.The surface air temperature variations for the Northern Hemisphere and China during the last one hundred years obviously show the hierarchical structure of multi-scale changes and the qualities of climate jump. 相似文献
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MULTI-SCALE ANALYSES OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND CHINA DURING THE LAST ONE HUNDRED YEARS 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Using multi-resolution theory of wavelet analysis,this paper studies the multi-scale structureof surface air temperature variations for the Northern Hemisphere and China during the last onehundred years.The results show that the climatic variations for the Northern Hemisphere can bedescribed as 3 hierarchies corresponding to the larger-scale changes.They are the cold period be-fore 1919,the warm period from 1920 to 1978 and the warmer period after 1979.The larger-scalehierarchical changes obviously show qualities of climate jump.The years 1920 and 1979 are thejump points of climate change.The surface air temperature variations for China are not entirelyanalogous to the Northern Hemisphere,and the main contrasts are that China is in the cold periodafter 1955 and the jump point of warming is 1987.The surface air temperature variations for theNorthern Hemisphere and China during the last one hundred years obviously show the hierarchicalstructure of multi-scale changes and the qualities of climate jump. 相似文献
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An analysis has been conducted of the multi-hierarchical structure and jump of temperature variation for the globe, China and Yunnan Province over the past 100 years using an auto-adaptive, multi-resolution data filter set up in You, Lin and Deng (1997). The result is shown below in three aspects. (11 The variation of global temperature in this period is marked by warming on a large scale and can be divided into three stages of being cold (prior to 1919), warm (between 1920 and 1978) and warmer (since 1979). Well-defined jumps are with the variation in correspondence with the hierarchical evolution on such scale, occurring in 1920 and 1979 when there is the most substantial jump towards warming. For the evolution on smaller scales, however, the variation has shown more of alternations of cold and warm temperatures. The preceding hierarchical structure and warming jump are added with new ones. (2) The trend in which temperature varies is much the same for China and the Yunnan Province, but it is not consistent with that globally, the largest difference being that a weak period of cold temperature in 1955-1978 across the globe was suspended in 1979 when it jumped to a significant warming,while a period of very cold temperature in 1955-1986 in China and Yunnan was not followed by warming in similar extent until 1987. (3) Though there are consistent hierarchical structure and jumping features throughout the year in Yunnan, significant changes with season are also present and the most striking difference is that temperature tends to vary consistently with China in winter and spring but with the globe in summer and fall. 相似文献
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Climatic fluctuations on the century time scale: A review of high-resolution proxy data and possible mechanisms 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We review the century time scale climatic variability that is observed in high-resolution proxy data records covering the past 10 000 yr. Cyclic variations with time scales ranging from 50 to 400 yr occur in oxygen isotope ratios derived from ice cores, tree-ring index series, pollen records and sea-ice extents. Century time scale cycles can also be identified in some biological and historical records and in long-term instrumental observations. In order to appreciate the century scale cycles in the context of climatic variability in general, a brief survey of all climatic time scales is presented.The traditional interpretation that decadal-to-century scale fluctuations in the climate system are externally forced, e.g. by variations in solar properties, is questioned. A different mechanism for these fluctuations is proposed on the basis of recent findings of numerical models of the ocean's thermohaline circulation. The results indicate that this oceanic circulation exhibits natural variability on the century time scale which produces oscillations in the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux. Although global in extent, these fluctuations are largest in the Atlantic Ocean. 相似文献
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Rex J Fleming 《Climate Dynamics》1993,8(3):135-150
Climate models, ranging from statistical-dynamical to the explicit-dynamical, contain a range of uncertainties related to the parameterization constants associated with the various forcing terms used therein. Quantifying the impacts of such uncertainties has heretofore received little attention. The impact of this aspect of the dynamics of uncertainty was revealed in a series of dynamical systems of increasing complexity. The inevitability of climate drift was discussed, with one aspect being revealed as the non-Gaussian nature of most forcing terms. For those dynamical systems which are chaotic in nature, it was shown how stochastic dynamic equations can be used to describe the uncertainty, even with uncertainty in the critical forcing terms. The possibility of climate transitions driven by stochastic forcing occurring on much faster time scales (i.e., weather disturbances) has been shown by numerous authors. The caution shown here is that even very small uncertainty in a forcing term occurring on the slow climate time scales can lead to such transitions more easily. Conversely, a deterministic parameterization on the slowly varying time scale may be just slightly incorrect in a particular model formulation and lead to the wrong climatic state. In view of such concerns, the framework for attacking the difficult nonlinear problem of uncertain parameterization constants in complex GCMs is outlined.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation 相似文献
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受资料本身、分析方法及未来排放情景假设等因素影响, 气候变暖幅度尚存在较大的不确定性。从分析方法入手, 探讨气象观测序列可能存在的自相关及其对气候变化趋势分析的不确定性影响。引入了Durbin-Watson一阶自相关检验方法对气象观测序列进行检验, 并用Cochrane-Orcutt方法去除存在的自相关。分析发现:浙江省平湖市气温序列存在的自相关放大了该站气温的升温趋势, 并且虚高了气温变化趋势的显著性水平。因此, 对资料序列进行自相关检验与去除是十分必要的。 相似文献
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Huang Jiayou 《大气科学进展》2000,17(2):184-192
To reveal climatic variation over North China, the climatic jumps in summer in Beijing are analyzed using the data of precipitation of summer (June, July, August) during the period of 1841-1993, in which those missed before 1950 were reconstructed by the stepwise regression method with minimum forecast error. The climatic jumps at different scales are analyzed using different diagnostic methods with different decade (10-100 years) windows. Some new methods and ideas are proposed. The variance difference, the linear tendency difference, and the difference of power spectral distribution between the samples before and after the period at the moving point in the center of the series are compared with other methods (for example, Mann-Kendall test, t-test, and accumulative anomaly etc.). Considering the differences among the statistics above, a synthetic jump index is also proposed in order to get the definite jump points in the moving series. The results show that the climatic jumps in the area occurred in the 1890’s, the 1910s and the 1920s, and mostly in the 1920s, which suggests that the local climatic jumps in North China have a simultaneous response to the global warming in the hundred-year scales. 相似文献
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Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
Larry D. Hinzman Neil D. Bettez W. Robert Bolton F. Stuart Chapin Mark B. Dyurgerov Chris L. Fastie Brad Griffith Robert D. Hollister Allen Hope Henry P. Huntington Anne M. Jensen Gensuo J. Jia Torre Jorgenson Douglas L. Kane David R. Klein Gary Kofinas Amanda H. Lynch Andrea H. Lloyd A. David McGuire Frederick E. Nelson Walter C. Oechel Thomas E. Osterkamp Charles H. Racine Vladimir E. Romanovsky Robert S. Stone Douglas A. Stow Matthew Sturm Craig E. Tweedie George L. Vourlitis Marilyn D. Walker Donald A. Walker Patrick J. Webber Jeffrey M. Welker Kevin S. Winker Kenji Yoshikawa 《Climatic change》2005,72(3):251-298
The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems
are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems
are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system
and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the
Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions
are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing
point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being
affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to
isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system
has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental
time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing
efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental
manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and
modeling. 相似文献
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Summary Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-tie scales ranging from turbulence (centimetersseconds) to climate (kilometers-years). Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures ofself-organized criticality. Standard models in meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed self-organized criticality in atmospheric flows. Mathematical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are nonlinear and do not possess analytical solutions. Finite precision computer realizations of nonlinear models give unrealistic solutions because ofdeterministic chaos, a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative numerical computations. Recent studies show that roundoff error doubles on an average for each iteration of iterative computations. Round-off error propagates to the main stream computation and gives unrealistic solutions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models which incorporate thousands of iterative computations in long-term numerical integration schemes. An alternative non-deterministic cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows described in this paper predicts the observed self-organized criticality as intrinsic to quantumlike mechanics governing flow dynamics. The model provides universal quantification for self-organized criticality in terms of the statistical normal distribution. Model predictions are in agreement with a majority of observed spectra of time series of several standard climatological data sets representative of disparate climatic regimes. Universal spectrum for natural climate variability rules out linear trends. Man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming will result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference to possible prediction of climate change.With 11 Figures 相似文献