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1.
ＷＡＴＥＲＱＵＡＬＩＴＹＳＩＭＵＬＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＨＥＡＶＹＭＥＴＡＬＴＲＡＮＳＰＯＲＴＡＴＩＯＮＩＮＴＨＥＹＥＬＬＯＷＲＩＶＥＲＳＨＥＮＸｉａｎｃｈｅｎ１,ＦＥＮＧＨｕｉｈｕａ２,ＷＡＮＧＦｅｎｇｒｏｎｇ３ａｎｄＬＩＵＬｉｎｈｕａ４ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＡ... 相似文献
2.
目的探讨ＰＨ值对Ｆｅ－ＥＤＴＡ造影效果的影响。方法;配制ＰＨ梯度５０－８０的０．５和０．１ｍｍｏｌ／Ｌ的Ｆｅ－ＥＤＴＡ液,观察ＳＥ序列「ＴＲ（ｍｓ）／ＴＥ（ｍｓ）２００／１５,２５００／８０」,信号变化,结果：Ｆｅ－ＥＤＴＡ的ＭＲ信号随ＰＨ值提高而减弱。 相似文献
3.
Zhao Yin WANG Qishun ZHANG Shaoling HEInternational Journal of Sediment ResearchVol. No. June STABILIZATION OF THE YELLOW RIVER CHANNEL DEVELOPMENT OF THE DELTAZhao Yin WANG Qishun ZHANG Shaoling HE 《国际泥沙研究》1998,(2)
ＳＴＡＢＩＬＩＺＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＨＥＹＥＬＬＯＷＲＩＶＥＲＣＨＡＮＮＥＬＡＮＤＤＥＶＥＬＯＰＭＥＮＴＯＦＴＨＥＤＥＬＴＡＺｈａｏＹｉｎＷＡＮＧ１,ＱｉｓｈｕｎＺＨＡＮＧ２ａｎｄＳｈａｏｌｉｎｇＨＥ３ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅＹｅｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒｄｅｌｔａ... 相似文献
4.
利用地质及地球物理观测方法解释岩石物理特性的实验结果巴卡耶夫Ｍ．Ｋｈ（乌兹别克斯坦科学院地震学研究所，塔什干）ＩＮＴＥＲＰＲＥＴＡＴＩＯＮＦＯＲＴＨＥＬＡＢＯＲＡＴＯＲＹＲＥＳＵＬＴＳＯＦＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＲＯＣＫＰＨＹＳＩＣＡＬＰＲＯＰＥＲＴＩＥＳＯ... 相似文献
5.
Hubert CHANSON 《国际泥沙研究》1998,(3)
ＥＸＴＲＥＭＥＲＥＳＥＲＶＯＩＲＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＡＴＩＯＮＩＮＡＵＳＴＲＡＬＩＡ：ＡＲＥＶＩＥＷＨｕｂｅｒｔＣＨＡＮＳＯＮ１ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｎｔｈｅｐａｐｅｒ,ｔｈｅａｕｔｈｏｒｒｅｖｉｅｗｓｔｈｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｏｆｒｅｓｅｒｖｏｉｒｓｉｌｔａｔｉ... 相似文献
6.
分形几何与地球科学（续）陈颙（国家地震局，北京１０００３６）·ＴｏｐｉｃａｌＬｅｃｔｕｒｅ·（３）ＦＲＡＣＴＡＬＧＥＯＭＥＴＲＹＡＮＤＧＥＯＳＣＩＥＮＣＥ（ＣＯＮＴＩＮＵＯＵＳ）￥ＣｈｅｎＹｏｎｇ（ＳｔａｔｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂ... 相似文献
7.
分形几何与地球科学（续） 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
分形几何与地球科学（续）陈顒（国家地震局，北京１０００３６）·ＴｏｐｉｃａｌＬｅｃｔｕｒｅ·（６）ＦＲＡＣＴＡＬＧＥＯＭＥＴＲＹＡＮＤＧＥＯＳＣＩＥＮＣＥ（ＣＯＮＴＩＮＵＯＵＳ）￥ＣｈｅｎＹｏｎｇ（ＳｔａｔｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂ... 相似文献
8.
分形几何与地球科学（续）陈（国家地震局，北京１０００３６）·ＴｏｐｉｃａｌＬｅｃｔｕｒｅ·（４）ＦＲＡＣＴＡＬＧＥＯＭＥＴＲＹＡＮＤＧＥＯＳＣＩＥＮＣＥ（ＣＯＮＴＩＮＵＯＵＳ）￥ＣｈｅｎＹｏｎｇ（ＳｔａｔｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅ... 相似文献
9.
分形几何与地球科学（续）陈颙（国家地震局，北京１０００３６）·ＴｏｐｉｃａｌＬｅｃｔｕｒｅ·（５）ＦＲＡＣＴＡＬＧＥＯＭＥＴＲＹＡＮＤＧＥＯＳＣＩＥＮＣＥ（ＣＯＮＴＩＮＵＯＵＳ）￥ＣｈｅｎＹｏｎｇ（ＳｔａｔｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂ... 相似文献
10.
分形几何与地球科学（续）陈颙（国家地震局，北京１０００３６）·ＴｏｐｉｃａｌＬｅｃｔｕｒｅ·（２）ＦＲＡＣＴＡＬＧＥＯＭＥＴＲＹＡＮＤＧＥＯＳＣＩＥＮＣＥ（ＣＯＮＴＩＮＵＯＵＳ）￥ＣｈｅｎＹｏｎｇ（ＳｔａｔｅｓｅｉｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅ... 相似文献
11.
Nader Davoudi Hamid Reza Tavakoli Mehdi Zare Abdollah Jalilian 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(6):1359-1373
The main goal of this article is to decluster Iranian plateau seismic catalog by the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and compare the results with some older methods. For this purpose, Iranian plateau bounded in 24°–42°N and 43°–66°E is subdivided into three major tectonic zones: (1) North of Iran (2) Zagros (3) East of Iran. The extracted earthquake catalog had a total of 6034 earthquakes (Mw?>?4) in the time span 1983–2017. The ETAS model is an accepted stochastic approach for seismic evaluation and declustering earthquake catalogs. However, this model has not yet been used to decluster the seismic catalog of Iran. Until now, traditional methods like the Gardner and Knopoff space–time window method and the Reasenberg link-based method have been used in most studies for declustering Iran earthquake catalog. Finally, the results of declustering by the ETAS model are compared with result of Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5):1363–1367, 1974), Uhrhammer (Earthq Notes 57(1):21, 1986), Gruenthal (pers. comm.) and Reasenberg (Geophys Res 90:5479–5495, 1985) declustering methods. The overall conclusion is difficult, but the results confirm the high ability of the ETAS model for declustering Iranian earthquake catalog. Use of the ETAS model is still in its early steps in Iranian seismological researches, and more parametric studies are needed. 相似文献
12.
In this paper, 28 aftershock sequences are selected, which are distributed in different areas including north China, southwest of China, northwest of China, Taiwan area, Turkey and Greece. In order to investigate the characteristics of these sequences along with different temporal and spatial coordinates, each sequence has been divided into dozens of segments called ``sub-sequences''. The ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences) model is applied to each ``sub-sequence'', and therefore the vectors of parameters of ETAS could be evaluated. Another model named LR (Logistic Regression) model is used to seek the correlate relation between the parameters of ETAS applied to every earthquake ``sub-sequence'' and seismicity. All the analyses and estimations imply that the characteristic of decay of aftershock sequences in different temporal and spatial domains seems to be characterized by the parameters of the ETAS model applied to some aftershock sequences or ``sub-sequences'', and there are some proportional correlate relations between the evaluation of LR model and the occurrence probability of the succeeding strong seismic energy release. 相似文献
13.
本文选用"传染型余震序列"（ETAS）模型和Reasenberg-Jones（R-J）模型,分别对九寨沟MS7.0地震序列的模型参数稳定性、余震发生率预测和余震概率预测进行了比较研究,并利用"地震信息增益"（IGPE）、N-test和T-test检验方法对预测效果进行了评价.研究结果表明,ETAS模型和R-J模型的序列参数分别在震后t2=2.0天和t2=1.50天后趋于稳定,此次九寨沟MS7.0地震序列的衰减较为正常;对未来1天的余震发生率预测和余震概率连续滑动预测表明,ETAS模型给出的余震发生率和余震概率数值均低于R-J模型预测结果;IGPE结果显示,ETAS模型在95%的置信区间上预测效果明显优于R-J模型;统计检验结果表明,在序列参数较不稳定的震后早期阶段,ETAS模型预测失效而R-J模型预测效果较好,在序列参数稳定阶段,ETAS模型预测效果较好而R-J模型预测失效.根据上述分析,在与此次九寨沟MS7.0地震类型相同的地震的余震预测策略上,如可在序列参数不稳定的震后早期阶段使用R-J模型、在此后使用ETAS模型,或可取得较好的预测效果. 相似文献
14.
历史上发生过强震地区的余震活动可能持续较长时间,而余震序列在何时可被看作正常的"背景地震活动",即"序列归属"问题在地球动力学和地震物理中有重要意义.时-空"传染型余震序列"(ETAS)模型可分离"背景"地震和"丛集"地震,并用概率形式表示作为相应事件的可能性,为考察此问题提供了可能.本文以1976年唐山MS7.8地震序列为例,对唐山地区1970年以来的ML4.0以上地震进行了时-空ETAS模型拟合,并以2010年以来发生的3次MS4.0以上地震为例讨论了它们的"序列归属"问题.研究结果显示,3次MS4.0以上地震的背景地震概率分别为0.72、0.88和0.76,表明它们作为1976年唐山MS7.8的余震的可能性较低,更可能为背景地震. 相似文献
15.
为考察2013年4月20日芦山MS7.0地震震后序列参数的早期特征, 利用“传染型余震序列”(ETAS)模型和最大似然法进行了参数估计. 设定截止震级Mc=ML2.0, 拟合时段为震后0.31—24.12天, 计算获得α=1.89, p=1.22, 同时利用最大似然法估计获得b=0.72. 与中国大陆地区其它中强震的余震序列参数的比较表明, 芦山MS7.0地震序列参数表现为触发次级余震的能力较弱和序列衰减速率较快的特征, 反映出余震区相对较高的应力水平. 为检测结果的稳定性, 设定不同的截止震级Mc以及不同的拟合截止时间, 分别进行参数拟合和参数标准差估计. 结果表明, Mc的选取对α值影响明显, 对p值影响则较小. 此外, 震后10天内获得的参数拟合结果随时间变化较为明显, 而其后各参数变化总体较为平稳. 相似文献
16.
针对“时空传染型余震序列”（英文简称ETAS）模型在地震序列参数的早期特征和余震短期概率预测研究中的应用问题,重点考察了不同截止震级Mc选取对结果的影响.以甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震序列的震后1.677天内的早期阶段为例,考察了ETAS模型和修正的Omori-Utsu公式的适用性问题,发现ETAS模型AIC值在各截止震级Mc下均小于修正的Omori-Utsu公式的结果,表明其适用效果更好.设定Mc=ML1.0,1.1,…,2.5,分别考察了ETAS模型中α值和p值的稳定性,并与2013年芦山7.0级地震序列进行了对比.结果表明,Mc对α值的影响相对较小,p值影响较大.此外,对基于ETAS模型和“瘦化算法”的余震短期概率预测结果进行了N-test检验,结果表明Mc的设定对余震短期概率预测影响较大,对甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震,仅当Mc=ML1.0或ML1.1时可获得较好的预测结果.由此,在真正的“向前”的预测实践中,需要首先考察不同的Mc下的余震预测效果. 相似文献
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18.
We analyzed the seismicity of northeastern Himalayan region of latitude (25 to 32°?N) and longitude (86–97°?E). The US Geological Survey catalogue is used in this study for a period from 1973 to June 2011. The seismicity of the region is modeled using epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The region is divided in three parts: (1) whole region, (2) subregion I, and (3) subregion II. The magnitude of completeness is found to be 4.6 for all the three regions. The ETAS parameters for all the regions are found same within the standard errors. There is no significant change observed in the seismicity since 1973 based on the ETAS modeling. 相似文献
19.
In earthquake occurrence studies, the so-called q value can be considered both as one of the parameters describing the distribution of interevent times and as an index of
non-extensivity. Using simulated datasets, we compare four kinds of estimators, based on principle of maximum entropy (POME),
method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (MLE), and probability weighted moments (PWM) of the parameters (q and τ
0) of the distribution of inter-events times, assumed to be a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), as defined by Tsallis
(1988) in the frame of non-extensive statistical physics. We then propose to use the unbiased version of PWM estimators to
compute the q value for the distribution of inter-event times in a realistic earthquake catalogue simulated according to the epidemic type
aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Finally, we use these findings to build a statistical emulator of the q values of ETAS model. We employ treed Gaussian processes to obtain partitions of the parameter space so that the resulting
model respects sharp changes in physical behaviour. The emulator is used to understand the joint effects of input parameters
on the q value, exploring the relationship between ETAS model formulation and distribution of inter-event times. 相似文献
20.
A version of the restricted trigger model is used to analyse the temporal behaviour of some aftershock sequences. The conditional
intensity function of the model is similar to that of the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (ETAS) model with the restriction
that only the aftershocks of magnitude bigger than or equal to some threshold Mtr can trigger secondary events. For this reason we have named the model Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (RETAS)
model. Varying the triggering threshold we examine the variants of the RETAS model which range from the Modified Omori Formula
(MOF) to the ETAS model, including such models as limit cases. In this way we have a quite large set of models in which to
seek the model that fits best an aftershock sequence bringing out the specific features of the seismotectonic region struck
by the crisis. We have applied the RETAS model to the analysis of two aftershock sequences: The first is formed by the events
which followed the strong earthquake of M=7.8 which occurred in Kresna, SW Bulgaria, in 1904. The second includes three main shocks and a large swarm of minor shocks
following the quake of 26 September 1997 in the Umbria-Marche region, central Italy. The MOF provides the best fit to the
sequence in Kresna; that leads to the thought that just the stress field changes due to the very strong main shock generate
the whole sequence. On the contrary, the complex behaviour of the seismic sequence in Umbria-Marche appears when we make the
threshold magnitude vary. Setting the cut-off magnitude M0=2.9 the best fit is provided by the ETAS model, while if we raise the threshold magnitude M0=3.6 and set Mtr=5.0, the RETAS model turns out to be the best model. In fact, observing the time distribution of this reduced data set, it
appears more evident that especially the strong secondary events are followed by a cluster of aftershocks. 相似文献