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1.
Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on two scenarios (A1B and A2) from CGCM3 experiment. The annual precipitation change was estimated to be 0.1–9.3% increase for A1B scenario, and ?3.3 to 3.3% decrease/increase for the A2 scenario. Difference in the mean temperature between the present and the 2080s were predicted to be 0.6–2.2°C and 0.6–3.0°C under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. The water balance showed that 42% of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into streamflow, and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events leading to high evaporation losses, and decrease in streamflow, while groundwater flow appeared unaffected. A study on the changes in monthly water balance provided insights into the hydrologic changes within the forest watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change. 相似文献
2.
气候变化对江河流量变化趋势影响研究进展 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
气候变化对基于自然稳定气候假定的流量变化趋势的检测和水资源评价方法提出了挑战。在流量变化趋势的检测中分离出气候变化的影响,不仅对水资源管理和水利工程设计有重要的应用价值,而且有助于了解气候变化以何种方式、在何时、何地、已经或尚未对水文循环产生影响,对改进气候模型的模拟与预测有重要的科学价值。
统计方法是检验流量变化趋势显著性的有效工具。直接用气候模型模拟和预测未来径流变化的可靠性取决于模型对当代降水模拟的可信度。多个气候模型集合分析有可能在一定程度上减少模型对降水、径流模拟的不确定性。近年发展起来的多个气候模型集合分析与统计显著性检验技术结合的方法,有可能模拟并预测出气候强迫导致大尺度径流空间分布的变化。随着气候模型尤其是陆—气耦合的区域气候模型对降水模拟的改进,可以预见径流变化的检测、归因和预测的趋同化模拟已为期不远。将温室气体外强迫导致的水文气候变化作为一个因子引入到水资源评价中,对于水资源管理经济与生态评估,以及未来的发展规划将是一件十分重要的变革。
相似文献
3.
Urbanisation and climate change can have adverse effects on the streamflow and water balance components in river basins. This study focuses on the understanding of different hydrologic responses to climate change between urban and rural basins. The comprehensive semi-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate how the streamflow and water balance components vary under future climate change on Bharalu (urban basin) and Basistha (rural basin) River basins near the Brahmaputra River in India based on precipitation, temperature and geospatial data. Based on data collected in 1990–2012, it is found that 98.78% of the water yield generated for the urban Bharalu River basin is by surface runoff, comparing to 75% of that for the rural Basistha basin. Comparison of various hydrologic processes (e.g. precipitation, discharge, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) based on predicted climate change scenarios is evaluated. The urban Bharalu basin shows a decrease in streamflow, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration in contrast to the rural Basistha basin, for the 2050s and 2090s decades. The average annual discharge will increase a maximum 1.43 and 2.20 m3/s from the base period for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as 2.6 and 8.5 pathways in Basistha River and it will decrease a maximum 0.67 and 0.46 m3/s for Bharalu River, respectively. This paper also discusses the influence of sensitive parameters on hydrologic processes, future issues and challenges in the rural and urban basins. 相似文献
4.
新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应 总被引：17，自引：7，他引：10
额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响. 相似文献
5.
研究目的是采用水文模型系统(HMS)模拟峨嵋河流域暴雨水文过程,并为长江上游地区气候和水文响应研究提供可靠的信息。HMS是一种分布式水文模型可用于研究各种气候因子和地表覆盖变化而引起的水文过程响应,该系统(HMS)利用气象、土壤类型、土地利用和地表覆盖、数字高程(DEM)和降雨径流等资料,研究气候、陆面、地表水和地下水的相互作用机理。在本次研究中,采用SCS Curve Number(CN)和Green-Ampt(GA)方法来计算径流过程,用GIS来数字化DEM、土壤、土地利用和陆地覆盖数据。通过用不同时间间隔的降雨和不同计算方法的水力参数模拟水文过程,来检验降雨的时间尺度效应和水力参数的空间变异性对水文过程的影响。结果表明,HMS对峨嵋河流域暴雨洪水的模拟及预测具有较好的适用性。 相似文献
6.
基于1956~2009年实测径流、天然径流和面降水的月系列,选用集中度和不均匀系数,分析东江径流年内分配特征的时空变异规律。通过对比降水和径流年内分配特征指标的阶段变化差异,量化分解气候变化、土地利用/覆被变化、水利工程水量调节和用水消耗等主要因素对东江径流年内分配特征变化的影响贡献。结果表明:东江实测径流的集中度和不均匀系数年变化过程均有显著下降趋势,且1973年为时序变点。降水及天然径流的年内集中程度阶段变化较小,但2000~2009年降水及天然径流的年内不均匀性要明显大于20世纪80年代和90年代。降水及天然径流的年内集中度和不均匀系数由上游向下游逐渐增大,显示集水面积越大降水及径流的年内集中程度和不均匀性越大。水利工程水量调节和土地利用/覆被变化降低了径流的年内集中程度和不均匀性,而用水消耗和气候变化增加了径流的年内集中程度和不均匀性。水利工程水量调节、土地利用/覆被变化、用水消耗和气候变化,对东江径流分配特征的影响贡献率分别约为-33.5%、-9.0%、4.5%和1.0%,新丰江水库、枫树坝水库和白盆珠水库的影响贡献率分别约为-21%、-10%和-2%,且近30年来土地利用/覆被变化和用水消耗的影响贡献有逐渐增加趋势。 相似文献
7.
树木年代学丰富的内容和知识体系, 成熟的研究方法, 为区域尺度上研究水文变化提供了精确的方法. 基于树轮重建水文, 认识过去长期自然水文变化格局, 合理规划与管理水资源的价值, 使树轮研究在水文气候变化研究中愈来愈受到人们的广泛重视.在短短的几十年里, 树轮水文学取得了日新月异的进展, 成为继树轮气候学之后又一快速发展的应用学科.在理解树轮水文学科学概念与内涵的基础上, 介绍了基于树轮重建水文的主要手段与方法, 从重建径流、重建极端水文事件、重建降水及重建湖泊沼泽水位等4个方面综述了国际树轮水文学的研究内容与进展, 并简要的概述了其未来发展趋势. 相似文献
8.
A distributed object-based rainfall–runoff simulation (DORS) model with incorporation of detailed impervious surface-area (ISA) data, derived from digital true-color orthophotography data with high spatial resolution, was developed. This physically based model simulates hydrologic processes of precipitation interception, infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration, change of soil moisture, change of water-table depth, runoff routing, groundwater routing, and channel-flow routing. The modeling processes take objects based on land-cover types as fundamental spatial units in order to reduce data volume, increase computational efficiency, strengthen representation of watersheds, and utilize the data in variable scales. US Geological Survey stream-gaging data were used to validate the temporal variation of simulated discharge within two watersheds in Rhode Island State. The ratio of absolute error to the mean and the Nash coefficient in the validation period are 7.2% and 0.90 for the first watershed, and 8.0% and 0.77 for the second watershed, respectively. The results indicate that the DORS model is able to capture the relationship between rainfall and runoff in the study area, and that it is applicable in the further study of ISA impacts on the water cycle and associated pollution problems. The results also demonstrate that the performance of the hydrologic simulation is improved with ISA data with high spatial resolution. 相似文献
9.
The electricity generation capacity in the Limay River basin is approximately 26% of the total electrical power generation
in Argentina. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of this basin is an important issue
for water resources management. This study explores the presence of trends in streamflow series, evaluates climate sensitivity
and studies the effects on the flow regime of predicted changes in precipitation in the basin. In order to identify and quantify
changes in observed streamflow series, the Mann–Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, and an estimator
of the magnitude of the trend are applied. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate, the concept
of elasticity is used. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is used to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to changes
in precipitation and is estimated using a power law model and a linear statistical model in two sub-basins, Aluminé and Nahuel
Huapi. The effects on flow regime of the predicted changes in precipitation under different scenarios are studied. Climatic
results for different scenarios of growth in greenhouse gases from some General Circulation Models are used as inputs into
the proposed models. The analysis identifies decreasing trends in mean and minimum annual flows and in the low flow season.
The estimates of the precipitation elasticity imply that changes in precipitation produce similar changes in streamflow and
the climatic results for different scenarios show that the variations are moderate. 相似文献
10.
A fully distributed, physically-based hydrologic modeling system, MIKE SHE, was used in this study to investigate whole-watershed
hydrologic response to land use changes within the Gyeongancheon watershed in Korea. A grid of 200 × 200 m was established
to represent spatial variations in geology, soil, and land use. Initial model performance was evaluated by comparing observed
and simulated streamflow from 1988 to 1991. Results indicated that the calibrated MIKE SHE model was able to predict streamflow
well during the calibration and validation periods. Proportional changes in five classes of land use within the watershed
were derived from multi-temporal Landsat TM imageries taken in 1980, 1990 and 2000. These imageries revealed that the watershed
experienced conversion of approximately 10% non-urban area to urban area between 1980 and 2000. The calibrated MIKE SHE model
was then programmed to repeatedly analyze an artificial dataset under the various land use proportions identified in the Landsat
TM imageries. The analysis was made to quantitatively assess the impact of land use changes (predominantly urbanization) on
watershed hydrology. There were increases in total runoff (5.5%) and overland flow (24.8%) as a response to the land use change. 相似文献
11.
气候变化和人类活动被认为是城市洪水演变的主要驱动因素,不同区域气候变化和城市化对洪水演变的影响不尽相同,科学识别城市洪水演变的关键驱动要素、量化气候变化与城市化对城市流域洪水演变的影响是城市洪水管理的重要依据。本文以高度城市化的北京市温榆河流域为例,以季节降雨量、气温、流域前期湿度、不透水面积比及流域内地下水埋深作为潜在驱动要素,对温榆河夏季不同概率的洪水建立GAMLSS模型,分析探讨城市流域洪水演变的主要驱动机制。研究结果表明:温榆河流域夏季不同概率的洪水在研究期均呈现出非一致性特性;城市不透水面积的扩张和降水是温榆河流域夏季洪水变化的主要驱动要素,不同等级洪水的变化具有不同的驱动机制,高于概率70%的小洪水的变化主要受到流域下垫面变化的影响,而小于概率45%的低频洪水的变化主要受降水的影响。 相似文献
12.
Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change. 相似文献
13.
全球气候变化对水文循环有着重要的影响,由气候变化所引起水资源量的时空分布和水质变化等问题已成为各国科学家和政府关注的热点。目前,气候变化对水资源的影响研究多集中于水量,而有关水质方面的影响研究相对较少。全球气候变化主要包括降水,气温,辐射和风速等气象因子的变化。本文综述了温度的升高、降水的增多或减少、风速和风型的变化、光照时间长短以及辐射增强等变化对地表水环境质量影响的研究进展;阐述了气候变化背景下,气象因子如何通过影响水体中污染物的来源、迁移转化方式、生化反应速率和生态效应等过程而直接或间接对地表水环境质量产生影响。并在对现有研究成果进行总结分析的基础上,从微观、中观和宏观的角度提出了气候变化对水环境质量影响的研究展望。 相似文献
14.
我国杰出的寒区水文学家叶柏生研究员不幸因公殉职. 选取了叶柏生研究员若干代表性研究成果, 包括与他人的合作研究成果, 重点从冰川水文、 冻土水文和区域水文变化三方面总结了其对寒区水文学发展所做的创新与贡献. 文章列出了每项研究成果的核心内容, 并给予了简要评述. 所选成果中, 冰川水文方面研究涉及冰川对河川径流的调节作用、 冰川径流对气候变化的响应机理等; 冻土水文研究着重介绍了多年冻土变化对流域径流过程及其变化影响方面的系统性成果; 区域水文变化研究方面, 选取了降水观测误差修正、 气候变化对区域径流的影响等方面的创新成果. 这些研究成果极大地提高了我国在世界寒区水文学研究的地位, 对认识寒区水文过程及气候变化对水资源的影响具有重要科学意义. 相似文献
15.
《China Geology》2021,4(3):498-508
The surface watershed and groundwater basin have fixed recharge scale, which are not only the basic unit for hydrologic cycle research but also control the water resources formation and evolution and its corresponding eco-geological environment pattern. To accurately identify the boundary of the surface watershed and groundwater basin is the basis for properly understanding hydrologic cycle and conducting the water balance analysis at watershed scale in complicated geologic structure area, especially when the boundary are inconsistent. In this study, the Dalinuoer Lake located in the middle of the Inner Mongolian Plateau which has complicated geologic structure was selected as the representative case. Based on the multidisciplinary comprehensive analysis of topography, tectonics, hydrogeology, groundwater dynamics and stable isotopes, the results suggest the following: (1) The surface watershed ridge and groundwater basin divide of Dalinuoer Lake are inconsistent. The surface watershed was divided into two separate groundwater systems almost having no groundwater exchange by the SW-NE Haoluku Anticlinorium Fault which has obvious water-blocking effect. The surface drainage area of Dalinuoer Lake is 6139 km2. The northern regional A is the Dalinuoer Lake groundwater system with an area of 4838 km2, and the southern regional B is the Xilamulun Riverhead groundwater system with an area of 1301 km2. (2) The groundwater in the southern of regional A and the spring-feeding river are the important recharge sources for the Dalinuoer Lake, and it has greater recharge effects than the northern Gonggeer River system. (3) It is speculated that the trend of Haoluku Anticlinorium Fault is the boundary of the westerlies and the East Asian summer Monsoon (EASM) climate systems, which further pinpoints the predecessor’s understanding of this boundary line. At present, the Dalinuoer Lake watershed is proved to have gone through a prominent warming-drying trend periods, which leads to the precipitation reduction, temperature rise, human activities water usage increasement. So the hydrological cycle and lake eco-environment at watershed scale will still bound to be change, which may pose the potential deterioration risk on the suitability of fish habitat. The results can provide basic support for better understanding water balance evolution and lake area shrinkage cause as well as the ecological protection and restoration implementation of Dalinuoer Lake watershed.© 2021 China Geology Editorial Office. 相似文献
16.
Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support
for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining
the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using
an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios
in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different
levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected
to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally,
the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas,
particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate
changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater
discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use
and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes. 相似文献
17.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(1-2):125-137
We investigate in the paper the impact of the hydrologic cycle on climate at different periods. The aim is to illustrate how the changes in moisture transport, precipitation pattern, and weathering may alter, at regional or global scales, the CO2 and climate equilibriums. We choose three climate periods to pinpoint intricate relationships between water cycle and climate. The illustrations are the following. (i) The onset of ice-sheet build-up, 115 kyr BP. We show that the increased thermal meridian gradient of SST allows large moisture advection over the North American continent and provides appropriate conditions for perennial snow on the Canadian Archipelago. (ii) The onset of Indian Monsoon at the end of the Tertiary. We demonstrate that superimposed to the Tibetan Plateau, the shrinkage of the Tethys, since Oligocene, plays a major role to explain changes in the geographical pattern of the southeastern Asian Monsoon. (iii) The onset of Global Glaciation (750 Ma). We show that the break-up of Rodinia occurring at low latitudes is an important feature to explain how the important precipitation increase leads to weathering and carbon burial, which contribute to decrease atmospheric CO2 enough to produce a snows ball Earth. All these periods have been simulated with a hierarchy of models appropriate to quantify the water cycle impact on climate. To cite this article: G. Ramstein et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
18.
以淮河流域为研究对象,选择分布式水文模型HMS,结合GIS技术,通过构建数字流域,提取流域特征信息,最终构建了分布式陆面-水文耦合模型(LSX-HMS).采用扰动分析法进行参数敏感性分析,利用实测水文资料进行参数率定和模型验证,确定性系数达0.760～0.939,表明该耦合模型在淮河流域具有较好的适用性.应用LSX-HMS对淮河蚌埠以上集水区域1980—1987年8a平均降水、蒸散发、日径流量和相对土壤含水量的空间分布进行了模拟.结果表明:各水文要素的空间分布存在较大的差异性,降水要素的分布呈随纬度递减的趋势;蒸散发和径流量两个变量都是上游小,中下游大;相对土壤含水量在研究区西部及西南部的山区和丘陵区较低,平原区较高.研究成果为淮河流域水土资源合理开发利用、调配和管理提供依据. 相似文献
19.
Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outputs from the PRUDENCE project and their performance in reproducing the streamflow. The soil and water assessment tool was used to simulate the streamflow of the Rhone River watershed located in the southwestern part of Switzerland, with the climate variables obtained from four RCMs. We analyzed the difference in magnitude of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed with respect to the observed values from the meteorological stations. In addition, we also focused on the impact of the grid resolution on model performance, by analyzing grids with resolutions of 50 × 50 and 25 × 25 km2. The variability of the meteorological inputs from various RCMs is quite severe in the studied watershed. Among the four different RCMs, the Danish Meteorological Institute provided the best performance when simulating runoff. We found that temperature lapse rate is significantly important in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated watershed as compared to other variables like precipitation, and wind speed for hydrological performance. Therefore, emphasis should be given to minimum and maximum temperature in the bias correction studies for downscaling climatic data for impact modeling in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated complex watersheds. 相似文献
20.
Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River,Xinjiang, China 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past
50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River
watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and
the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend
superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation)
and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the
more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes
in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in
the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There
is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are
negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate
change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff. 相似文献