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1.
Chen Chien-Yuan Chen Tien-Chien Yu Fan-Chieh Yu Wen-Hui Tseng Chun-Chieh 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(5):715-724
A rainfall-induced debris flow warning is implemented employing real-time rain gauge data. The pre-warning for the time of landslide triggering derives the threshold or critical rainfall from historical events involving regional rainfall patterns and geological conditions. In cases of debris flow, the time taken cumulative runoff, to yield abundant water for debris triggering, is an important index that needs monitoring. In gathered historical cases, rainfall time history data from the nearest rain gauge stations to debris-flow sites connected to debris flow are used to define relationships between the rainfall intensity and duration. The effects by which the regional rainfall patterns (antecedent rainfall, duration, intensity, cumulative rainfall) and geological settings combine together to trigger a debris-flow are analyzed for real-time monitoring. The analyses focused on 61 historical hazard events with the timing of debris flow initiation and rainfall duration to burst debris-flow characteristics recorded. A combination of averaged rainfall intensity and duration is a more practical index for debris-flow monitoring than critical or threshold rainfall intensity. Because, the outburst timing of debris flows correlates closely to the peak hourly rainfall and the forecasting of peak hourly rainfall reached in a meteorological event could be a valuable index for real-time debris-flow warning. 相似文献
2.
Several giant debris flows occurred in southwestern China after the Wenchuan earthquake, causing serious casualties and economic losses. Debris flows were frequently triggered after the earthquake. A relatively accurate prediction of these post-seismic debris flows can help to reduce the consequent damages. Existing debris flow prediction is almost based on the study of the relationship between post-earthquake debris flows and rainfall. The relationship between the occurrence of post-seismic debris flows and characteristic rainfall patterns was studied in this paper. Fourteen rainfall events related to debris flows that occurred in four watersheds in the Wenchuan earthquake area were collected. By analyzing the rainfall data, characteristics of rainfall events that triggered debris flows after the earthquake were obtained. Both the critical maximum rainfall intensity and average rainfall intensity increased with the time. To describe the critical conditions for debris flow initiation, intensity–duration curves were constructed, which shows how the threshold for triggering debris flows increased each year. The time that the critical rainfall intensities of debris flow occurrences return to the value prior to the earthquake could not be estimated due to the absent rainfall data before the earthquake. Rainfall-triggering response patterns could be distinguished for rainfall-induced debris flows. The critical rainfall patterns related to debris flows could be divided on the basis of antecedent rainfall duration and intensity into three categories: (1) a rapid triggering response pattern, (2) an intermediate triggering response pattern, and (3) a slow triggering response pattern. The triggering response patterns are closely related to the initiation mechanisms of post-earthquake debris flows. The main difference in initiation mechanisms and difference in triggering patterns by rainfall is regulated by the infiltration process and determined by a number of parameters, such as hydro-mechanical soil characteristics, the thickness of the soil, and the slope gradient. In case of a rapid triggering response rainfall pattern, the hydraulic conductivity and initial moisture content are the main impact factors. Runoff erosion and rapid loading of solid material is the dominant process. In case of a rainfall pattern with a slow triggering response, the thickness and strength of the soil, high hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity are the impact factors. Probably slope failure is the most dominant process initiating debris flows. In case of an intermediate triggering response pattern, both debris flow initiation mechanisms (runoff erosion and slope failure) can play a role. 相似文献
3.
利用搜集的汶川震区典型泥石流暴发前后的降雨过程资料,分析了泥石流的激发雨量过程,获得了汶川震区的泥石流激发雨量特征,以期为泥石流的预测预报提供依据。结果表明,汶川地震区的泥石流激发雨型可分为快速激发型、中速激发型和慢速激发型3类,其差异主要体现在降雨的持续时间和强度方面。不同激发雨型下的泥石流形成过程的差别主要体现在松散土体饱和过程。雨型的差异(降雨的持续时间和强度)使得土体饱和产生超渗产流的时间出现差异,进而使得泥石流暴发的时间存在差异。激发雨强跟激发雨型存在一定的关系,激发雨强最大者为中速激发雨型,其次是慢速激发雨型,最小者为快速激发雨型。与地震之前相比,地震后的泥石流暴发时的累积雨量和临界雨量都有所降低。 相似文献
4.
5.
Guruh Samodra Danang Sri Hadmoko Ghalih Nur Wicaksono Indriya Parahita Adi Maulana Yudinugroho Sandy Budi Wibowo Hatma Suryatmojo Taufik Hery Purwanto Barandi Sapta Widartono Franck Lavigne 《Landslides》2018,15(5):985-993
The Clapar landslide induced debris flow consisted of the Clapar landslide occurred on 24 March 2017 and the Clapar debris flow occurred on 29 March 2017. The first investigation of the Clapar landslide induced debris flow was carried out two months after the disaster. It was followed by UAV mapping, extensive interviews, newspaper compilation, visual observation and field measurements, and video analysis in order to understand chronology and triggering mechanism of the landslide induced debris flow in Clapar. The 24 March 2016 landslide occurred after 5 hours of consecutive rainfall (11,2 mm) and was affected by combination of fishponds leak and infiltration of antecedent rain. After five days of the Clapar landslide, landslide partially mobilized to form debris flow where the head scarp of debris flow was located at the foot of the 24 March 2016 landslide. The Clapar debris flow occurred when there was no rainfall. It was not generated by rainstorm or the surface erosion of the river bed, but rather by water infiltration through the crack formed on the toe of the 24 March 2016 landslide. Supply of water to the marine clay deposit might have increased pore water pressure and mobilized the soil layer above. The amount of water accumulated in the temporary pond at the main body of the 24 March 2016 landslide might have also triggered the Clapar debris flow. The area of Clapar landslide still shows the possibility of further retrogression of the landslide body which may induce another debris flow. Understanding precursory factors triggering landslides and debris flows in Banjarnegara based on data from monitoring systems and laboratory experiments is essential to minimize the risk of future landslide. 相似文献
6.
本文结合对雨量数据的分析, 总结了泥石流自动实时监测预警中的一些关键技术, 并提出一种基于降雨过程的泥石流实时监测预警的解决方案。在泥石流的监测预警工作中, 目前多采用雨强与累计雨量作为主要参数, 如何正确识别一场降雨过程, 对于提高监测预警的精度具有重要的意义。结合监测数据特征, 本文采用詹钱登对降雨过程的划分标准, 基于数据库技术实现对降雨过程的自动识别, 为后续预警参数的获取提供支撑。由于受雨量计工作模式的影响, 其原始数据的时间间隔是随机的, 不能直接用于预警模型的计算, 因此对雨量监测数据进行等时间间隔的处理。在预警流程方面, 如何实现预警过程无人工干预的完全自动、实时与稳定运行, 一直是预警工作中的难点, 本研究中引入“系统服务”这一技术, 将整套预警系统作为系统级别的后台服务运行于服务器上, 能够保证整个预警过程稳定地运行, 真正意义上实现了泥石流监测预警过程的自动化与实时化。本文研究成果应用于走马岭沟泥石流监测预警中, 成功对2013年7月8日的泥石流事件进行预警。 相似文献
7.
2011年贵州省望谟县打易镇的大范围浅层滑坡诱发的沟谷泥石流提供了研究这类泥石流地形和降雨条件的机会。在地质条件一致和小区域内的降雨条件基本一致的情况下,地形条件就是这些泥石流暴发与否的唯一决定因素。对比一些重要的地形因素与泥石流暴发的关系,得出了由流域面积、沟床纵比降和25°~45°山坡坡度面积比组成的泥石流综合地形因子T。在地形因子T的基础上,研究获得了由前期降雨量、1 h降雨强度、年平均降雨量等组成的降雨因子R。由地形因子T和降雨因子R获得的临界条件P可以判断该区域的泥石流暴发。由于研究工作部分基于泥石流的形成机理,研究成果还可用于其他区域的泥石流形成预测,为泥石流的预测预报提供了一个较好的方法。 相似文献
8.
汶川震区北川9.24暴雨泥石流特征研究 总被引：32，自引：1，他引：31
2008年9月24日汶川震区的北川县暴雨导致区域性泥石流发生,这次9.24暴雨泥石流灾害导致了42人死亡,对公路和其他基础设施造成严重损毁。本研究采用地面调查和遥感解译方法分析地震与暴雨共同作用下的泥石流特征,获取的气象数据用于分析泥石流起动的临界雨量条件。本文探讨了研究区泥石流起动和输移过程,并根据野外调查,分析了泥石流形成的降雨、岩石和断层作用,特别是强降雨过程与物源区对泥石流发生的作用。根据应急调查发现北川县境内暴雨诱发的泥石流72处,其分布受岩石类型、发震断层和河流等因素控制。根据对研究区震前和震后泥石流发生的临界雨量和雨强的初步分析,汶川地震后,该区域泥石流起动的前期累积雨量降低了14.8%～22.1%,小时雨强降低25.4 %～31.6%。震区泥石流起动方式主要有二种,一是由于暴雨过程形成的斜坡表层径流导致悬挂于斜坡上的滑坡体表面和前缘松散物质向下输移,进入沟道后转为泥石流过程;二是消防水管效应使沟道水流快速集中,并强烈冲刷沟床中松散固体物质,导致沟床物质起动并形成泥石流过程。调查和分析发现沟内堆积的滑坡坝对泥石流的阻塞明显,溃决后可导致瞬时洪峰流量特别大。研究结果表明了汶川震区已进入一个新的活跃期。因此,应该开展对汶川地震区的泥石流风险评估和监测、早期预警,采取有效的工程措施控制泥石流的发生和危害。 相似文献
9.
中国东部地区的地质灾害多以坡面泥石流的形式发生,预测预报坡面泥石流的发生对于开展防灾减灾具有重要意义。地形、地质和降雨三大条件是影响坡面泥石流发生的主要条件。通过选择同样地质条件和基本相同降雨条件的区域,研究影响坡面泥石流发生的地形条件,并得出可以用于坡面泥石流预报的坡面泥石流地形条件。结果表明:地形条件由坡面坡度因子、泥石流上部因子、泥石流侧面因子和临空面因子组成;较大的地形条件T对应较大的泥石流发生可能性;降雨条件由泥石流发生前的降雨量与1 h降雨量组成;得出了由地形条件T和降雨条件R组成的坡面泥石流预报条件P,P值越大,坡面泥石流发生的可能性越大。预报条件P可以预报坡面泥石流的发生。 相似文献
10.
针对沟床起动型泥石流的诱发因素为高强度短历时的降雨,提出10 min降雨强度是这类泥石流暴发的关键。在1 h预报模型的基础上,基于云南蒋家沟的多年泥石流观测资料,修正了1 h预报模型的降雨参数,并得到了10 min降雨预报模型。10 min降雨预报模型在中国西部的其他流域,如云南浑水沟、贵州望谟县打易区域泥石流沟、四川三滩沟、四川雅安陆王沟和干溪沟、甘肃柳湾沟、甘肃马槽沟等流域的验证中,取得了较好的结果。10 min降雨预报模型是部分建立在泥石流的形成机理上的模型,并不是完全的统计模型,因此该模型也可以用于其他地区的沟床起动类型泥石流预报。 相似文献
11.
2022年9月5日四川泸定县发生MS 6.8级地震, 地震诱发大量同震崩滑体, 并导致湾东河断流。基于现场调查、影像解译和区域地质资料分析, 采用空间统计和水文计算的方法, 对湾东河流域同震崩滑体分布特征和潜在泥石流危险性进行了研究。结果表明: 湾东河流域内同震崩滑体主要分布在地震烈度Ⅸ度区, 规模以中小型为主, 主要沿沟道两侧展布, 尤其是单薄山脊两侧临空面发育密度较大, 距断层距离和坡度对其分布具有明显的控灾效应; 未来湾东河流域暴发溃决型泥石流的冲出量可能为同等触发条件下震前泥石流的约两倍。依此提出了加强流域内溃决型泥石流风险防范, 尽快通过综合监测预警获取泥石流发生的临界雨量值, 在泥石流防治工程设计中应充分考虑泥石流规模放大系数等防灾减灾建议, 为泸定地震后泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供科学参考。 相似文献
12.
Viorel Ilinca 《Landslides》2014,11(3):505-512
This paper focuses on characteristics of debris flows from the lower part of the Lotru River basin (South Carpathians, Romania). The damage produced by these debris flows has included burial of agricultural land, roads covered by debris flows, and even the obstruction of the Lotru River. Simple statistical analysis has been used to emphasize the characteristics of the debris flow sites. The collected data show that heavy rainfall is the main triggering mechanism of debris flow events in the Lotru hydrographic basin. The daily rainfall data for this region show that important debris flow events generally occur when rainfall exceeds 40 mm in 24 h, while rainfall levels between 25 and 40 mm in 24 h result in hyperconcentrated flows. For 11 of 14 studied debris flow sites, the fan area is greater than the source area, probably due to the thickness of the regolith, which is up to 5–10 m deep. Both source area and deposition area are very dynamic. The retreat rate calculated for five debris flow sites ranges from 5 to 30 m in 30 years (from 1975 to 2005). Channel cross section measurements on one of the debris flows show that velocity values vary from 1.31 to 2.64 m/s; corresponding discharge values vary from 4 to 10.03 m3/s. 相似文献
13.
In August 2010, extreme rainfall affected the north of the Czech Republic and caused regional floods and landslides. Three torrential debris flows originated in the Jizerské hory Mts., close to Bílý Potok on the north slope of the Smědavská hora Mt. The rainfall situation which triggered the debris flow was analyzed and compared with the rainfall situation in 1958 when a debris flow occurred in the same area. The rainfall data were obtained from rain gauges of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Four rain gauges were chosen close to the Smědavská hora Mt. with data of daily amounts from 1983 to 2013 and 10-min intensity or hourly amounts from the specific period. The data from 1958 were available from three different rain gauges (only daily amounts). The data series were not complete so linear regression was applied to interpolate them. A number of analyses were carried out including daily rainfall, 2-day/3-day moving values, antecedent precipitation index (API) of 5/10/30 days, 10-min intensity, and hourly amounts, and the trigger factor of the debris flow in the study area was also investigated. It was determined that for the triggering of debris flows, both high API values as well as high-intensity short-duration rainfall is needed. It was documented that in cases of solely high API indices or high-intensity short-duration rainfalls, no debris flows were initiated. 相似文献
14.
An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A dramatic increase in debris flows occurred in the years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in SW China due to the deposition of loose co-seismic landslide material. This paper proposes a preliminary integrated model, which describes the relationship between rain input and debris flow run-out in order to establish critical rain thresholds for mobilizing enough debris volume to reach the basin outlet. The model integrates in a simple way rainfall, surface runoff, and concentrated erosion of the loose material deposited in channels, propagation, and deposition of flow material. The model could be calibrated on total volumes of debris flow materials deposited at the outlet of the Shuida catchment during two successive rain events which occurred in August 2011. The calibrated model was used to construct critical rainfall intensity-duration graphs defining thresholds for a run-out distance until the outlet of the catchment. Model simulations show that threshold values increase after successive rain events due to a decrease in erodible material. The constructed rainfall intensity-duration threshold graphs for the Shuida catchment based on the current situation appeared to have basically the same exponential value as a threshold graph for debris flow occurrences, constructed for the Wenjia catchment on the basis of 5 observed triggering rain events. This may indicate that the triggering mechanism by intensive run-off erosion in channels in this catchment is the same. The model did not account for a supply of extra loose material by landslips transforming into debris flow or reaching the channels for transportation by run-off. In August 2012, two severe rain events were measured in the Shuida catchment, which did not produce debris flows. This could be confirmed by the threshold diagram constructed by the model. 相似文献
15.
为了探究不同雨型条件下泥石流流量变化特征,通过搜集汶川震区典型泥石流降雨数据,将其概化为三次峰值早到型、三次峰值型、三次峰值晚到型三种雨型。以HEC-HMS水文模型构建高家沟流域模型,在获得流域清水流量结果基础上采用雨洪修正法计算不同雨型下泥石流流量。结果表明三次峰值早到型、三次峰值型、三次峰值晚到型峰值清水流量分别为33.5,41.5,45.8 m3/s,泥石流峰值流量分别为166.83,206.67,228.08 m3/s,误差为-25.6%、-7.8%、1.7%;三种雨型下流量从上游至沟口以线性方式演变,且随降雨峰值推迟其演变速率不断增大,而增长幅度逐渐减小;泥石流暴发出现在峰值降雨前后,属于降雨激发型泥石流;三种雨型随降雨峰值推迟,流量增长阶段所需时间越长,分别为5.5,6,9 h,而衰退阶段所需时间越短,分别为14.5,8,2.5 h。研究表明该模型能为缺少降雨监测数据地区泥石流研究提供技术支持。 相似文献
16.
2020年6月17日丹巴县梅龙沟爆发了一次大规模泥石流,一次性冲出固体物质42.7×104 m3,形成泥石流-堰塞坝-溃决洪水-滑坡灾害链,造成5100余户2.12万余人被迫转移,直接经济损失达8亿元。根据现场调查、无人机航拍以及遥感解译,分析梅龙沟泥石流的成因及致灾机理,阐述了“物源成因”、“降雨激发”和“地形促进”对泥石流形成产生的影响。结果表明:（1）梅龙沟泥石流是在前期累计降雨和短时强降雨共同作用下形成;（2）梅龙沟泥石流源头为大石堡沟,起动模式为“沟岸垮塌-泥石流”;（3）泥石流沟内持续的物源补给以及东风棚子、梅龙村、大邑村三处大型滑坡产生的级联堵溃效应,致使泥石流流量不断放大,最终导致大量固体物质冲出沟口;（4）沟口形成的堰塞坝-溃决洪水-阿娘寨滑坡灾害链进一步增强了泥石流的致灾能力;（5）现阶段梅龙沟内物源丰富,临界启动降雨阈值降低,极易在雨季发生大规模泥石流,建议及时采取综合防治措施。 相似文献
17.
Guo Xiaojun Chen Xingchang Song Guohu Zhuang Jianqi Fan Jianglin 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2663-2687
Debris flows often occur in the mountainous watersheds of earthquake-affected areas, and in the Lushan earthquake area of southwestern China, they have become a significant hazard. In this study, the influencing factors and spatial distribution of debris flows were analyzed through a review of their occurrence history. Debris flows are mainly distributed in the northwestern part of the study area, which hosts the greatest density of active faults. The debris flows are generally formed by the ‘progressive bulking’ effect in channels, and deep incision, lateral erosion, and blockage breaking are common processes that amplify the magnitude of such debris flows. Rainfall thresholds for different types of debris flow were proposed to explain the spatial differences between debris-flow regions, and the temporal variations of those thresholds highlighted how the rainfall conditions required for the occurrence of debris flows have changed. Natural vegetation recovery, reduction in the availability of solid material, and artificial debris-flow control projects play important roles in raising the threshold of the rainfall conditions required for triggering debris flows.
相似文献18.
Catastrophic debris flows triggered by a 14 August 2010 rainfall at the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
The Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 produced large amounts of loose material (landslide debris) that are still present
on the steep slopes and in the gullies. This loose material creates an important hazard as strong rainfall can cause the development
of devastating debris flows that will endanger the resettled population and destroy the result of reconstruction efforts.
On 14 August 2010, a total of 21 debris flows were triggered by heavy rainfall around the town of Yingxue, located near the
epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake. One of these debris flows produced a debris dam, which then changed the course of the
river and resulted in the flooding of the newly reconstructed Yinxue town. Prior to this catastrophic event, debris flow hazard
had been recognized in the region, but its potential for such widespread and devastating impacts was not fully appreciated.
Our primary objective for this study was to analyze the characteristics of the triggering rainfall and the sediment supply
conditions leading to this event. Our field observations show that even small debris flow catchment areas have caused widespread
sediment deposition on the existing fans. It is concluded that the whole of the area shaken by the Wenchuan earthquake is
more susceptible to debris flows, initiated by localized heavy rainfall, than had been assumed earlier. The results of this
study contribute to a better understanding of the conditions leading to catastrophic debris flow events in the earthquake-hit
area. This is essential for the implementation of proper early warning, prevention, and mitigation measures as well as a better
land use planning in this area. 相似文献
19.
The approach of tropical cyclone (TC) Juliette, in 2001, to the Baja California Peninsula triggered at least 419 landslides. Most of the landslides were shallow slips and debris slides of limited areal extent, which were converted rapidly into debris flows to be exported quickly out of the mountain areas towards the lowlands. Main factors affecting landslide occurrence were total storm rainfall and intensity, aspect, geology and vegetation association. Two processes can be distinguished as initiating slope failure. Accumulation of rainfall from exposed bedrock slopes, generating excess overland flow, was the main process linked to failures in concave topography. A combination of wind and excess overland flow in the more convex or planar upper slopes was a secondary process related to heterogeneity of vegetation associations in the oak-dry tropical forests ecotone, as uprooted trees dislodged large regolith and bedrock blocks, priming hillslopes for further runoff concentration. An estimative threshold curve for triggering landslides in this region is sketched. From the analysis of historical information, storms like Juliette approach the southern peninsula on average once every 100 years. Denudation estimates are in the higher end of the spectrum for a tectonically passive margin. These estimates should be considered when taking decisions regarding management of water resources in this area through damming of streams. The results emphasize the need for a more detailed representation of the spatial distribution of the rainfall and winds for this mountainous region affected by TCs. 相似文献
20.
2011年6月5日至6月6日,贵州望谟县发生连续强降雨,引发境内纳包沟泥石流灾害,给当地居民的生命和财产造成巨大损失。本研究着重分析了纳包沟泥石流的物源、地形和降雨因素,指出该地区降雨强度大,流域内30°～40°坡度范围比例最大,最有利于浅层滑坡的发育,滑坡进而为泥石流的暴发提供主要物源;进一步得出泥石流的特征和动力学参数,泥石流为稀性泥石流,最大洪峰流量25 m3/s,泥石流一次冲出固体总量约6 100 m3。该次泥石流的形成机理为浅层滑坡引起的滑坡型泥石流。针对纳包沟的特点,当地政府和居民都应高度重视并实施相应的生物和工程措施以预防泥石流的发生。 相似文献