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1.
AbstractThe standardized series of monthly and weekly flow sequences, referred to as standardized hydrological index (SHI) series, from five rivers in the Canadian prairies were subjected to return period (Tr) analysis of drought length (L). The SHI series were truncated at drought probability levels q ranging from 0.5 to 0.05 with the intention of deducing drought events and corresponding drought lengths. The values of L were fitted to the Pearson 3, the gamma (2-parameter), the exponential (1-parameter), the Weibull 3 and the Weibull (2-parameter) probability density functions (pdfs). A priori assignment of one week or one month for the location parameter in the Pearson 3 pdf proved logical and also facilitated the rapid estimation of other parameters using either the method of moments or the method of maximum likelihood. The Pearson 3 turns out to be the most suitable pdf to describe and to estimate return periods of drought lengths. At the monthly and weekly time scales, it was inferred that the sample size (T, months or weeks) of SHI series could be treated equivalent to the return period of the largest recorded drought length. At the annual time scale, however, the sample size (T, years) should be modified using either the Hazen or the Gringorten plotting position formula to reflect the actual return period of the largest recorded drought length in years.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor E. Gargouri 相似文献
2.
Joachim Miksat Kuo-Liang Wen Vladimir Sokolov Chun-Te Chen Friedemann Wenzel 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2010,8(4):847-858
Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, suffered from destructive earthquakes four times during the 20th century (M
L = 7.3 on April 15, 1909; M
L = 6.8 on November 15, 1986; the Chi–Chi M
L = 7.3 earthquake on September 21, 1999; and M
L = 6.8 on March 31, 2002). Analysis of recorded data shows a strong dependence of spectral amplification in the Taipei Basin
on earthquake depth and azimuth. At low frequencies (f < 3 Hz) significant larger amplifications are observed for shallow earthquakes as compared to intermediate depth events.
The former ones also display strong azimuthal dependence. As structures with large response periods such as bridges and tall
buildings are sensitive to these low frequencies the understanding of the associated wave effects within the basin and their
role for site effect amplification is critical. The tool we employ is 3D finite-difference modeling of wave propagation of
incident wave fronts. The available detailed model of the basin allows studying the wave effects. Modeling clearly reveals
that basin edge effects as observed in data are related to surface wave generation at the basin edges with a high degree of
azimuthal dependency. The reproduced site amplification effects are in qualitative agreement with the observations from strong
motion data. 相似文献
3.
Romain Chesnaux 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):421-436
Abstract Estimates of trends of climatic changes at basin and state scales are required for developing adaptation strategies related to planning, development and management of water resources. In the present study, seasonal and annual trends of changes in maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), mean temperature (T mean), temperature range (T range), highest maximum temperature (H max) and lowest minimum temperature (L min) have been examined at the basin scale. The longest available records over the last century, for 43 stations covering nine river basins in northwest and central India, were used in the analysis. Of the nine river basins studied, seven showed a warming trend, whereas two showed a cooling trend. The Narmada and Sabarmati river basins experienced the maximum warming and cooling, respectively. The majority of basins in the study area show increasing trend in T range, H max and L min. Seasonal analysis of different variables shows that the greatest changes in T max and T mean were observed in the post-monsoon season, while T min experienced the greatest change in the monsoon season. This analysis provides scenarios of temperature changes which may be used for sensitivity analysis of water availability for different basins, and accordingly in planning and implementation of adaptation strategies. 相似文献
4.
T. C. Sharma 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):79-92
Abstract Two entities of importance in hydrological droughts, viz. the longest duration, LT , and the largest magnitude, MT (in standardized terms) over a desired time period (which could also correspond to a specific return period) T, have been analysed for weekly flow sequences of Canadian rivers. Analysis has been carried out in terms of week-by-week standardized values of flow sequences, designated as SHI (standardized hydrological index). The SHI sequence is truncated at the median level for identification and evaluation of expected values of the above random variables, E(LT ) and E(MT ). SHI sequences tended to be strongly autocorrelated and are modelled as autoregressive order-1, order-2 or autoregressive moving average order-1,1. The drought model built on the theorem of extremes of random numbers of random variables was found to be less satisfactory for the prediction of E(LT ) and E(MT ) on a weekly basis. However, the model has worked well on a monthly (weakly Markovian) and an annual (random) basis. An alternative procedure based on a second-order Markov chain model provided satisfactory prediction of E(LT ). Parameters such as the mean, standard deviation (or coefficient of variation), and lag-1 serial correlation of the original weekly flow sequences (obeying a gamma probability distribution function) were used to estimate the simple and first-order drought probabilities through closed-form equations. Second-order probabilities have been estimated based on the original flow sequences as well as SHI sequences, utilizing a counting method. The E(MT ) can be predicted as a product of drought intensity (which obeys the truncated normal distribution) and E(LT ) (which is based on a mixture of first- and second-order Markov chains). Citation Sharma, T. C. & Panu, U. S. (2010) Analytical procedures for weekly hydrological droughts: a case of Canadian rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 79–92. 相似文献
5.
Radiative characteristics in a forested drainage basin during the snowmelt season were examined in order to better understand and predict snowmelt runoff in the basin. A method for estimating net radiation in a forest (Rnf) was presented using the total sky view factor (P) and the sun path sky view factor (Q). Solar radiation, albedo, atmospheric radiation and air temperature observed at an open site were also required. The total and the sun path sky view factors were determined from all‐sky photographs. Q was expressed as a linear function of P for 0·15<P<0·86 regardless of forest type. For P<0·15, Q was set to zero, and for P>0·86, Q was equal to unity. The short‐wave radiation budget at the forest floor (Snf) increased with P, whereas the long‐wave radiation budget (Lnf) decreased with P. Rnf increased with P for 0·15<P<0·86, and changed little with P for P<0·15 and P>0·86, as the increase in Snf was offset by the decrease in Lnf . The forest effect on Rnf was diminished under cloudy or high albedo conditions, because Snf was easily offset by Lnf . This estimation method was extended to the whole basin, and Rnf was obtained over a watershed covered by trees. At the beginning of the snowmelt season when the albedo remained high, the forest effect became null because the decrease in Snf was balanced by the increase in Lnf . As the albedo gradually lowered with the advance of the snowmelt season, the decrease in Snf owing to forest covers exceeded the increase in Lnf , and the forest effect to decrease Rnf became evident. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
S. G. H. Philander 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1):219-245
Abstract It is shown that the linear equatorial dynamics of a shallow ocean is characterized by two boundary layers of width γ? L and γL (γ is the Ekman number of the flow, assumed small, and L is a horizontal dimension of the basin). In the γ? layer stress in the bottom Ekman layer is comparable to that in the surface Ekman layer. In the γ layer vertical friction is important throughout the depth of the ocean. Should the Rossby number ? be so large as to invalidate a linear theory (? > γ5/3), then inertial effects become important at a distance ?2/5 L from the equator. The role played in the circulation of the basin by the non-linear equatorial current first studied by Charney (1960) is shown to be similar to that of the γ layer of the linear theory. Though lateral friction is unimportant in a linear model of the flow, shear layers at the equator are found to be a necessary feature of non-linear flow. 相似文献
7.
IntroductionSince the late 1970s, the quickly developed global digital seismograph network has been providing high quality recordings of large earthquakes in global scale, based on which digital seismology has made great progress. Compared with large earthquakes, moderate and small sized shocks have more frequent occurrence, and comprise clues to geological tectonics and tectonic stress field in a region. Preceding and following a large earthquake, usually occur numbers of small events that im… 相似文献
8.
Abstract The spatial variability of the factors of the universal soil loss equation is examined on the mediterranean basin of Conca de Tremp covering 43.1 km2 in Spain. The evaluation of the rainfall erosivity R and the soil erodibility K is relatively straightforward and spatially-averaged values of these parameters can be applied to the entire basin. Conversely, the spatial variability of annual soil erosion losses on large basins depends primarily on the factors L, S and C describing topographic, vegetation and land use parameters. A grid size analysis of soil erosion losses from the Conca de Tremp basin under mediterranean climatic conditions in Spain shows excellent agreement with the earlier results on the Chaudière basin in Canada. It is concluded for both basins that unbiassed estimates of soil erosion losses are obtained for grid sizes less than about 0.125 km2. The analysis of the Conca de Tremp basin validates the use of the grid size factor proposed by Julien & Frenette (1987). It is also found that the grid size factor primarily depends on the average slope gradient which decreases with increasing grid size or drainage area. On the other hand, the grid size factor does not depend on the spatial variability of the factors R, K, L and C. 相似文献
9.
Abstract Various modes of occurrence of talc were identified in piemontite‐quartz schists collected from schist and eclogite units in the Kotsu area of the Sanbagawa Belt, eastern Shikoku, Japan. They can be classified into the following types: (A) matrix and (B) pull‐apart talc. The matrix talc is associated with aegirineaugite or glaucophane in the eclogite unit and with albite or chlorite in the schist unit. The pull‐apart talc is developed at the pull‐apart of microboudin structures of Na‐amphibole, along with albite or chlorite in samples from both units, suggesting that the pull‐apart talc was formed by Na‐amphibole consuming reactions in both units. The talc–aegirineaugite–phengite association is found in a thin layer (a few millimetres thick), with higher Na2O/(Na2O + Al2O3 + MgO) ratio in the ANM (Al2O3–Na2O–MgO) diagram projected from phengite, epidote and other minerals, in the eclogite unit. Crystals of aegirineaugite have decreased jadeite content [= 100 × Al/(Na + Ca)] and increased aegirine content [= 100 × (Na – Al)/(Na + Ca)] from the core (ca Jd40Aeg40Di20) to the rim (ca Jd23Aeg53Di24), and are replaced by winchite and albite in varying degrees at the crystal margins. Na‐amphibole is glaucophane/crossite, commonly rimmed by Al‐poor crossite or winchite at the margin in the eclogite unit, although it is relatively homogeneous crossite in the schist unit. These textures suggest that the talc‐phengite‐(aegirineaugite or glaucophane) assemblage equilibrated during an early stage of metamorphism and the pull‐apart talc was formed at a later stage in the eclogite unit. A plausible petrogenetic grid in the NCKFe3+MASH system with excess piemontite (regarded as epidote), hematite, quartz and water, pseudosection analysis for the aegirineaugite‐bearing layer and the observed mineral assemblages suggest that the talc‐aegirineaugite‐phengite assemblage is stable under high pressure conditions (ca 560–580°C and 18–20 kbar). The pull‐apart talc was formed at ca 565–580°C and 9.5–10.5 kbar by the reaction of glaucophane/crossite + paragonite = talc + albite during the decompression stage, suggesting that the piemontite‐quartz schist in the eclogite unit experienced high‐pressure metamorphism at ca 50–60 km depth and was then exhumed to ca 30 km depth under nearly adiabatic conditions. 相似文献
10.
Thermal histories of Cretaceous sedimentary basins in the Korean peninsula have been assessed to understand the response of the East Asian continental margin to subduction of the Paleo‐Pacific (Izanagi) Plate. The Izanagi Plate subducted obliquely beneath the East Asian continent during the Early Cretaceous and orthogonally in the Late Cretaceous. First, the Jinan Basin, a pull‐apart basin, was studied by illite crystallinity and apatite fission‐track analyses. Analytical results indicate that Jinan Basin sediment was heated to a maximum temperature of approximately 287°C by burial. The sediment experienced two cooling episodes during ca 95–80 Ma and after ca 30 Ma, with a quiescent period between them. A similar cooling pattern is recognized in the Gyeongsang Basin, the largest Cretaceous basin in Korea. The Jinan and Gyeongsang Basins were cooled mainly by exhumation between ca 95 and 80 Ma, but the former was exhumed slightly earlier than the latter by transpressional force due to the subduction direction change of the Izanagi Plate. Comparison of thermal history of Korean Cretaceous basins with those of granitoids in northeastern China and the accretionary complexes in southwestern Japan reveals that the Upper Cretaceous regional exhumation of the East Asian continental margin including the Korean peninsula during ca 95–80 Ma was facilitated by the subduction of the Izanagi–Pacific ridge, which migrated northeastwards with time, resulting in the end of regional exhumation at ca 80 Ma in this region. 相似文献
11.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):808-824
Abstract We report results of three field campaigns conducted at 39 stations. At each station, we measured reflectance spectra in situ and collected water samples for measuring chlorophyll a (CHL) and suspended solids (SS) concentrations in the laboratory. To identify the indicative bands and develop suitable estimation models for CHL (C CHL) and SS (C SS) concentrations in Taihu Lake, a spectral-feature method and a derivative method were applied. The following conclusions were drawn: (a) the critical C CHL and C SS probably causing their spectral variation are, respectively: 0, 10, 50 and 75 μg L?1, and 0, 10, 50 and 100 mg L?1; (b) the derivative method is better than the spectral-feature method for estimating C CHL and C SS; (c) the optimal variable for CHL is a reflectance second-order derivative at 501 nm or a reflectance first-order derivative at 698 nm; the optimal variable for SS can change when its concentration is low and the range is narrow; otherwise, the optimal variable is a reflectance first-order derivative at 878 nm; and (d) the CHL and SS have an effect on one another's retrieval. The C CHL estimation accuracy would benefit from narrowing the C SS range. With C CHL increasing and its range broadening, the corresponding C SS estimation accuracy decreases gradually. 相似文献
12.
T.C. Sharma 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):549-569
Abstract A hydrological drought magnitude (M T ) expressed in standardized terms is predicted on annual, monthly and weekly time scales for a sampling period of T years in streamflow data from the Canadian prairies. The drought episodes are considered to follow the Poisson law of probability and, when coupled with the gamma probability distribution function (pdf) of drought magnitude (M) in the extreme number theorem, culminate in a relationship capable of evaluating the expected value, E(M T ). The parameters of the underlying pdf of M are determined based on the assumption that the drought intensity follows a truncated normal pdf. The E(M T ) can be evaluated using only standard deviation (σ), lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ) of the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequence, and a weighting parameter Φ (ranging from 0 to 1) to account for the extreme drought duration (L T ), as well as the mean drought duration (Lm ), in a characteristic drought length (Lc ). The SHI is treated as standard normal variate, equivalent to the commonly-used standardized precipitation index. A closed-form relationship can be used for the estimation of first-order conditional probabilities, which can also be estimated from historical streamflow records. For all rivers, at the annual time scale, the value of Φ was found equal to 0.5, but it tends to vary (in the range 0 to 1) from river to river at monthly and weekly time scales. However, for a particular river, the Φ value was nearly constant at monthly and weekly time scales. The proposed method estimates E(M T ) satisfactorily comparable to the observed counterpart. At the annual time scale, the assumption of a normal pdf for drought magnitude tends to yield results in close proximity to that of a gamma pdf. The M T , when transformed into deficit-volume, can form a basis for designing water storage facilities and for planning water management strategies during drought periods. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2013. A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 549–569. 相似文献
13.
AbstractLarge errors in peak discharge estimates at catchment scales can be ascribed to errors in the estimation of catchment response time. The time parameters most frequently used to express catchment response time are the time of concentration (TC), lag time (TL) and time to peak (TP). This paper presents a review of the time parameter estimation methods used internationally, with selected comparisons in medium and large catchments in the C5 secondary drainage region in South Africa. The comparison of different time parameter estimation methods with recommended methods used in South Africa confirmed that the application of empirical methods, with no local correction factors, beyond their original developmental regions, must be avoided. The TC is recognized as the most frequently used time parameter, followed by TL. In acknowledging this, as well as the basic assumptions of the approximations TL = 0.6TC and TC ≈ TP, along with the similarity between the definitions of the TP and the conceptual TC, it was evident that the latter two time parameters should be further investigated to develop an alternative approach to estimate representative response times that result in improved estimates of peak discharge at these catchment scales.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Qiang Zhang 相似文献
14.
Jiongxin Xu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):106-117
Abstract Water resources management should cover both blue water and green water. For green-water management at the river drainage basin scale, the green-water coefficient (C gw) is adopted, defined as the ratio of annual green water to annual precipitation. Based on data from the Middle Yellow River basin, China, for the period 1950 to 2007, we studied the temporal variation in C gw in response to some influencing factors. A decreasing trend in C gw was found. The influence of changes in land management on C gw, reflected by an increase in the area (A sw) of soil and water conservation measures, is emphasized. Using multiple regression analysis, the contributions of A sw and the 5-year moving averages of annual precipitation and air temperature were estimated as 51, 37 and 12%, respectively. The results may provide useful information for better management of water resources, including green and blue water flows in the Yellow River basin. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten Citation Xu, J.-X., 2013. Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–12. 相似文献
15.
Abstract A canonical correlation method for determining the homogeneous regions used for estimating flood characteristics of ungauged basins is described. The method emphasizes graphical and quantitative analysis of relationships between the basin and flood variables before the data of the gauged basins are used for estimating the flood variables of the ungauged basin. The method can be used for both homogeneous regions, determined a priori by clustering algorithms in the space of the flood-related canonical variables, as well as for “regions of influence” or “neighbourhoods” centred on the point representing the estimated location of the ungauged basin in that space. 相似文献
16.
Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multipoint strain
measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability
process were analyzed by using C
v value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of C
v value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of C
v value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity
of precursor distribution. C
v value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when C
v value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that C
v value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.
Foundation item: Chinese Joint Earthquake Sciences Foundation (9507435). 相似文献
17.
Abstract To explore the spatial and temporal variations of the reference evapotranspiration (ETref) is helpful to understand the response of hydrological processes to climate changes. In this study, ETref was calculated by the Penman-Monteith method (P-M method) using air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours at 89 meteorological stations during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The spatial distribution and temporal variations of ETref were explored by means of the kriging method, the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method and the linear regression model, and the causes for the variations discussed. The contribution of main meteorological variables to the variations of ETref was explored. From the results we found that: (1) the spatial distributions of ETref display seasonal variation, with similar spatial patterns in spring, summer and autumn; (2) temporal trends for ETref showed large variation in the upper, middle and lower regions of the basin, most of the significant trends (P?=?0.05) were detected in the middle and lower regions, and, in particular, the upward and downward trends were mainly detected in the middle region and lower region of the basin, respectively; and (3) sensitivity analysis identified the most sensitive variable for ETref as relative humidity, followed by air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed at the basin scale. Citation Yang, Zhifeng, Liu, Qiang & Cui, Baoshan (2011) Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 1015–1026. 相似文献
18.
On July 20, 1995, an earthquake of M
L=4.1 occurred in Huailai basin, northwest of Beijing, with epicenter coordinates 40.326°N, 115.448°E and focal depth 5.5 km.
Following the main shock, seismicity sharply increased in the basin. This earthquake sequence was recorded by Sino-European
Cooperative Huailai Digital Seismograph Network (HDSN) and the hypocentres were precisely located. About 2 hours after the
occurrence of the main shock, a smaller event of M
L=2.0 took place at 40.323°N, 115.447°E with a focal depth of 5.0 km, which is very close to the main shock. Using the M
L=2.0 earthquake as an empirical Green’s function, a regularization method was applied to retrieve the far-field source-time
function (STF) of the main shock. Considering the records of HDSN are the type of velocity, to depress high frequency noise,
we removed instrument response from the records of the two events, then integrated them to get displacement seismogram before
applying the regularization method. From the 5 field stations, P phases in vertical direction which mostly are about 0.5 s
in length were used. The STFs obtained from each seismic phases are in good agreement, showing that the M
L=4.1 earthquake consisted of two events. STFs from each station demonstrate an obvious “seismic Doppler effect”. Assuming
the nodal plane striking 37° and dipping 40°, determined by using P wave first motion data and aftershock distribution, is
the fault plane, through a trial and error method, the following results were drawn: Both of the events lasted about 0.1 s,
the rupture length of the first one is 0.5 km, longer than the second one which is 0.3 km, and the rupture velocity of the
first event is 5.0 km/s, larger than that of the second one which is about 3.0 km/s; the second event took place 0.06 s later
than the first one; on the fault plane, the first event ruptured in the direction γ=140° measured clockwise from the strike
of the fault, while the second event ruptured at γ=80°, the initial point of the second one locates at γ=−100° and 0.52 km
from the beginning point of the first one. Using far-field ground displacement spectrum measurement method, the following
source parameters about the M
L=4.1 earthquake were also reached: the scalar earthquake moment is 3.3×1013 N·m, stress drop 4.6 MPa, rupture radius 0.16 km.
Contribution No. 99FE2022, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau.
This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (95-07-411). 相似文献
19.
Abstract The effective porosity θ e for partially penetrated aquifers was determined. The model basin sandy aquifer available in the Centre was used. The values obtained for θ e were in good agreement with the adopted values. 相似文献
20.
Dr. G. KOVACS 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):359-369
Abstract The baseflow characteristics of some of the numerous small basins in southeastern Nigeria have been analysed to estimate the developable groundwater in the basins. It is shown that from 5.62 × 104 to 1.59 × 106 m3 of groundwater can be developed per square kilometre of basin per annum. The relationship between the baseflow characteristics and other attributes of the basins, such as geology and stream density, were studied statistically, leading to the development of empirical equations for predicting the hydrological features of the several ungauged streams in the region. It is shown, for example, that the basin geology (represented as the percentage of sands), the drainage density, the basin area, the baseflow depletion rate and the total groundwater stored in the basin, Qtp, are related by the equation: Qtp = ?1.85 × 109?7.96 × 108 dd+4.18 × 107 gf?2.01 × 106 df+6.25 × 105 wa where dd is drainage density; gf geological factor; df depletion factor; and wa basin area. 相似文献