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1.
Introduction Based on the elastic theory of hard inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii (1991), we developed a rheologic inclusion model to study the spatial-temporal variation of earthquake pre-cursor by using the bulk-strain field resulted from rheologic inclusion model (SONG et al, 2000). Based on the elastic inclusion theory, the analytical expressions for the viscoelastic displacement field and strain field of rheologic inclusion model are derived (SONG et al, 2003, 2004). Further-m… 相似文献
2.
Introduction Based on the elastic theory of the hard inclusion (Dobrovolskii, 1991), we developed an inclusion theory of rheologic medium, and applied the results of bulk-strain field of a rheologic inclusion model to explain the spatial-temporal evolution process of earthquake precursors (SONG, et al, 2000). In the former paper (SONG, et al, 2003), we derived the viscoelastic displacement field of the rheologic inclusion model on the basis of the analytic expression of displacement field o… 相似文献
3.
On the basis of the theory of viscoelastic displacement and strain field for the three-dimensional rheologic model of earthquake preparation, this paper mainly studies the theoretical solution of precursor field for the three-dimensional rheologic model of earthquake preparation. We derive the viscoelastic analytical expressions of the ground tilt, underground water level, earth resistivity at an arbitrary point （x, y, z） in the rheologic medium, and analyzed the earth resistivity preliminarily, providing a certain theoretical basis for the precursor analysis of seismogenic process. 相似文献
4.
Zhang Guomin Shi Yaolin and Zhang YongxianCenter for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing P.R. China Graduate School Academia Sinica Beijing P.R. China 《中国地震研究》1996,(2)
According to studies of more than 20 earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in North China, seven features of the short-term and imminent earthquake precursors have been summarized in this paper. At the same time, taking the short-term and imminent earthquake stage as the physical process of a source's medium softening and fault creep, we calculated temporal variation of mean stress, maximum shear stress, body strain, and pore pressure in some certain points (supposed stations) in the source area and its adjacent area by using an anisotropic and nonlinear source model and a finite element method. According to an analysis of these theoretical curves, we conclude that the short-term and imminent earthquake precursors have such characteristics as complex shapes, exponential growth of the precursor number with tune, and precursors' migration from the outside area to the source area, which to a certain extent reveal the cause of the characteristics of the short-term and imminent earthquake precursor field. 相似文献
5.
Geng Lumin Zhang Guomin Shi YaolinCenter for Analysis Prediction Beijing China Graduate School Academia Sinica Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1995,(3)
The "field" and "source" are two important branches in seismology and earthquake research.In this paper,we use a computer model to study the relation between the field and the source in earthquake activity.In our modeling,a network of nonlinear elements is used to simulate seismic activity of seismic zones in a seismotectonic block.Constant strain rate is enforced on the boundary of the model,cyclic seismic activity,quasi-periodic variation of stress field intensity,and strain energy are observed with high and low fluctuations.There is a main seismicity area in seismic cycles,and the main seismicity area shows the spatial migration during different seismic cycles.If the precursory area is related to high element stress,it is found that the development of precursors in our model is quite complicated.No certain relation between the precursors and earthquakes has been discovered.Anomalies show different characteristics in the seismic quiet period and active period.All of the seismic zones in the system hav 相似文献
6.
What is a credible seismic precursor in observation of deformation A real seismic precursor ought to be resulted from the variations in the earth strain and stress. The deformation observation can provide the information during earthquake gestation and occurrence period for us. Usually the seismic precursors can be divided into field and epicentral region precursors. The precursor information is very useful for seismic prediction from epicentral region or near epicentral region. Micro-deformation observation mainly includes tilt, strain and gravity observation. Compared with GPS, geodesy and mobile deformation observation, micro-deformation (tilt, strain) shows the change of deformation which is continual in a limited volume with dominant observed range of 10(6~10(10 m. Because the variation of the crustal nature and cracking can be directly obtained by micro-deformation observation, it is an effective way to find middle-short term and short-term precursor. 相似文献
7.
Niu Zhiren 《地震工程学报》1985,7(1):102-120
The article has made a simple exposition of the dilation-creep modelof earthquake source development(abbreviated DC).Inelastic volumetricdilation of rock masses and fault creep are considered as two basic phys-ical processes in the DC model.The physical mechanism of precursors ofthe M=7.8 Tangshan earthquake has also been analysed and discussed inthis paper.The results show that the precursors of the Tangshan earth-quake were not caused by only one factor and the precursors observed in-and around the epicentral area prior to this earthquake can be grouped into three types.TypeⅠprecursors may be causally related to rock dilata-ncy.TypeⅡprecursors result from fault creep.TypeⅢprecursors maybe associated with some sort of upward migration of mass in the crust orthe upper mantle,and/or may be attributed to large scale stressing processaccommodated by some combination of stable slippage and discontinuousbrittle rupture(namely small earthquake)along the faults.It was sug-gested that repeated dilation and discontinuous creep occurred during theprocess of source development of the Tangshan earthquake and the prepa-ratory process of the Tangshan earthquake can be divided into the follo-wing six phases:elastic stress accumulation(from 1954 to 1967);earlyinelastic dilation(from 1968 to 1969);early fault creep(from 1970 to1973);the second dilation(from the end of 1973 to the first half of 1975);the second evident fault creep(from the second half of 1975 to the end ofApr.1976);and fault creep just before the main shock(from the end ofApr.1976 to the occurrence of the Tangshan earthquake).It is regardedhat the preparatory process of the Tangshan earthquake,as one of the intraplate events,may be controlled jointly by the upward migration ofdeep mass and large scale intraplate stress field.This characteristic prob-ably is different from that of earthquake along plate boundary. 相似文献
8.
Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the 相似文献
9.
After the 2008 M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, the eastern Tibetan Plateau experienced a series of M_W6.0 earthquakes, including the 2013 M_W6.6 Lushan, 2014 M_W6.1 Kangding and 2017 M_W6.5 Jiuzhaigou events. Based on available constraints, we build a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model to calculate Coulomb failure stress caused by these strong earthquakes. In this model, the geometry and slip vector of the initial rupture zone of each earthquake are used to better evaluate the earthquake-related stress projection. Considering reasonable ranges of viscosities for the crust and upper mantle in different tectonic units, numerical results show that after the Wenchuan earthquake, the coseismic Coulomb failure stress change at the hypocenters of the subsequent earthquakes increased to approximately +0.012–+0.040, +0.01–+0.03, and+0.008–+0.015 MPa, respectively. With viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle, the Coulomb failure stress change at the hypocenters of these earthquakes accumulated to about +0.014–+0.042, +0.016–+0.036, and +0.003–+0.007 MPa just before their occurrence. This suggests that the Wenchuan earthquake indeed triggered or hastened the occurrence of the Lushan, Kangding and Jiuzhaigou events, supporting that strong earthquake clustering around the eastern Tibetan Plateau could be related to stress interaction between the seismogenic faults. Besides, ～94% and ～6% of the stress increase around(and before the occurrence of) the Kangding earthquake were contributed by the Wenchuan event and the Lushan event, respectively; the positive Coulomb failure stress change at the Jiuzhaigou earthquake hypocenter was related to coseismic slip partitioning of the Wenchuan earthquake. This means that stress interaction among the earthquakes could be controlled by the combined effect of stress of the previous events and by the complexity of earthquake ruptures. Thus, in researches on the earthquake-triggering mechanism, special attentions should be paid on both details of the rupture model and multiple factors of previous earthquakes. 相似文献
10.
Yang Guohua 《中国地震研究》2007,21(3):269-280
In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focused on extracting medium-low frequency strain information on the basis of a region with no rotation.According to the repeated measurements(1999～2001～2004) from GPS monitoring stations in the Sichuan and Yunnan area obtained by the Project of "China Crust Movement Measuring Network",and with the movement of 1999～2001(stage deformation background) as the basic reference,we separated the main influencing factors of the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake in 2001 from the data of 2001 and 2004,and the results indicate:(1) the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake has a discriminating effect on the Sichuan and Yunnan area,moreover,the deformation mode and background had not only certain similitude but also some diversity;(2) The movement field before the earthquake was very ordinal,while after the earthquake,order and disorder existed simultaneously in the displacement field;The displacement quantities of GPS monitoring stations were generally several millimeters;(3) The principal strain field before earthquake was basically tensile in an approximate EW direction and compressive in the SN direction,and tension was predominant.After the earthquake,the principal strain field in the Sichuan area was compressive in the EW direction and tensile in the SN direction,and the compression was predominant.In the Yunnan area,it was tensional in the NE direction and compressive in the NW direction,and tension was predominant;(4) The surficial strain before the earthquake was dominated by superficial expansion,the contractive area being located basically in the east boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan block and its neighborhood.After the earthquake,the Sichuan area was surface contractive(the further north,the greater it was),and south of it was an area of superficial expansion.Generally speaking,the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake played an active role in the accumulation of energy in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Special attention shall be focused on the segment of Xichang-Dongchuan and its neighborhood. 相似文献
11.
Accurate estimation of the peak seismic responses of structures is important in earthquake resistant design. The internal force distributions and the seismic responses of structures are quite complex, since ground motions are multi- directional. One key issue is the uncertainty of the incident angle between the directions of ground motion and the reference axes of the structure. Different assumed seismic incidences can result in different peak values within the scope of design spectrum analysis for a given structure and earthquake ground motion record combination. Using time history analysis to determine the maximum structural responses excited by a given earthquake record requires repetitive calculations to determine the critical incident angle. This paper presents a transformation approach for relatively accurate and rapid determination of the maximum peak responses of a linear structure subjected to three-dimensional excitations within all possible seismic incident angles. The responses can be deformations, internal forces, strains and so on. An irregular building structure model is established using SAP2000 program. Several typical earthquake records and an artifi cial white noise are applied to the structure model to illustrate the variation of the maximum structural responses for different incident angles. Numerical results show that for many structural parameters, the variation can be greater than 100%. This method can be directly applied to time history analysis of structures using existing computer software to determine the peak responses without carrying out the analyses for all possible incident angles. It can also be used to verify and/or modify aseismic designs by using response spectrum analysis. 相似文献
12.
In the paper, we introduce Allegre＇s scaling-rule theory of rock fracture and the probability to develop a method for predicting earthquake occurrence time on its basis. As an example, we study the characteristics of seismological precursors （seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc） associated with the earthquake （M=6.1） occurred in Shandan-Minle, Gansu Province. The results show an increasing trend of seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc before the earthquake. And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of these two parameters. The study has provided a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict the earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc. 相似文献
13.
Based on the lateral segmentation and vertical stratification characteristics of the crustal medium in Sichuan-Yunnan region,and the asymmetry of the static dislocations on the coseismic fault plane of the Wenchuan M_S8. 0 earthquake,we built a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model of the crust in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The postseismic impact of the Wenchuan M_S8. 0 earthquake on the Sichuan-Yunnan region was studied.The results show that:① The far-field horizontal deformation caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of the medium in the 10 years after the earthquake is about 0-20 mm within the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block,which has a greater influence on north side and smaller on south side.② In the 10 years after the earthquake,the far-field vertical deformation caused by the viscoelastic relaxation effect of the medium is small,and it shows an increase of about 0-4 mm in most areas of the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block.③ The Xianshuihe fault and the eastern segment of the East Kunlun fault,which are close to the seismogenic fault,show a high gradient on deformation fields after the earthquake.④ In order to compare with the strong earthquake activity in the SichuanYunnan region after the Wenchuan earthquake, the horizontal stress state and the Coulomb failure stress change of the active block boundary are also calculated. From the spatial distribution of the coseismic and postseismic displacement field,the fault activity characteristics reflected by the stress state and the stress loading of the fault layer reflected by the Coulomb failure stress change,there is a certain correlation with the spatial distribution of strong earthquake activity in this region. 相似文献
14.
Adding dampers is a commonly adopted seismic risk mitigation strategy for modern buildings, and the corresponding design procedure of dampers has been well established by the Chinese Building Code. Even though all types of dampers are designed by the same procedure, actual seismic performance of the building may differ from one to the others. In this study, a nine-story benchmark steel building is established, and three different and typical types of dampers are designed according to the Chinese Building Code to realize structural vibration control under strong earthquake excitation. The seismic response of the prototype building equipped with a viscoelastic damper, viscous damper and buckling-restrained brace(BRB) subjected to 10 earthquake records are calculated, and Incremental Dynamic Analysis(IDA) is performed to describe progressive damage of the structure under increasing earthquake intensity. In the perspective of fragility, it shows that the viscoelastic damper has the highest collapse margin ratio(CMR), and the viscous damper provides the best drift control. Both the BRB and viscoelastic dampers can effectively reduce the floor acceleration responses in the mid-rise building. 相似文献
15.
Buried pipe networks are important components of lifeline systems. An experiment is conducted to test a buried pipe network subjected to an artificial earthquake produced by multi-millisecond blasting. The motivation of the research is to verify the feasibility of using multi-millisecond blasting to simulate earthquakes and to validate the deformation relationship between pipe and soil obtained in a single-point explosion test. Multiple explosives are used with a time-delay technique to create an extended period of loading on pipes. The dimension of the buried pipe network is 24 m × 24 m. The artificial earthquake is produced by trinitrotoluene(TNT) charges. The pipe network consists of ductile cast iron(DCI) pipes, which represent a water distribution network, and welded steel(WS) pipes, which represent a gas supply network. Eighty-five kilograms of TNT charges, which are divided into three parts, are detonated by millisecond blasting. The ground motion of the test field, including the accelerations and velocities at different points, and the pipe dynamic responses, including the joint deformations of DCI pipes and the axial strains of WS pipes, are described in detail. Finally, the deformation law of buried pipe networks and the deformation relationship between pipe and soil are discussed. 相似文献
16.
Small variation of annual temperature in deep tunnel can produce annual variation in tilt and strain
In this paper,finite element method (FEM) of axisymmetric linear elastic model has been used to calculate the tilt and strain induced by small annual temperature variations in a deep tunnel. The results show that even if the am-plitude of the annual variation meets the construction standard of seismic station issued by China Earthquake Ad-ministration (the annual temperature variation amplitude in the tunnel is no more than 0.5 °C),a small annual tem-perature variation of amplitude just 0.2 °C in the tunnel would produce 10?7 rad changes in tilt and 10?7 changes in strain. Especially,at the end and the corner of the tunnel,changes of tilt and strain can be even larger. Therefore,in the future,it is an important task to reduce the annual temperature variation in the tunnel as far as possible. Within the tunnel,for both baseline instrument and pendulum instrument,the modeling suggests ways of construction of the tunnel and installation of the instrument to decrease the influence of the annual temperature variation. 相似文献
17.
Shao Huicheng 《中国地震研究》2007,21(2):189-195
The gestation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related to fault activity, which is not only revealed by abundant experimentation and seismism but also proved by modern seismology. On the Chinese mainland, the relation between earthquake activity and active faults is one of the bases for partitioning potential seismic sources, analyzing the seismotectonics and estimating location of strong earthquakes.Due to the nonuniformity of earth media, instability of observation systems and disturbance of the environment, etc, the variety of observational data is complicated, that is, there is no absolutely "normal" or "abnormal", and seismic anomalies can be divided into many mutually exclusive "abnormal states". In different conditions of combined time-space-strength, determining seismic anomalies by different monomial forecast methods and its efficiency could be different due to the uncertainty of a precursor itself or complexity of the relationship between a precursor and earthquake gestation. It is very difficult to discover and dispose of this difference in actual application in a "two-state" model. But in a "multi-state" model, the difference can be easily reflected and the optimal combination of forecasting parameters for a forecast method can also be determined easily.Based on the "multi-state" precursory model and the optimization method for parameters of earthquake forecast model under the condition of optimal forecast efficiency, the relationship of the spatial location of earthquake with M≥6.0 and active faults in three seismic belts are analyzed. The results demonstrate that in the Hetao Seismic Belt, seismicity is mostly concentrated in the range of 20 km along the fault, the optimization model can forecast the location of potential earthquakes of M≥6.0 near the faults with a relatively high accuracy and the reliability is 0.5; while in the Qilian Mt. Seismic Belt, the reliability only reaches 0.14 when we use the model to estimate earthquakes within 30 km range along the faults. The "multi-state" precursory model, the efficiency-evaluating model and the parameter selection of individual earthquake forecast model based on optimal efficiency are of certain revelatory and practicable meanings for developing knowledge about precursors, investigating the laws of earthquake preparation and searching for optimal forecasting methods. 相似文献
18.
The mesoscopic damage dynamics and damage evolution have been applied to probe theevolutional process induced catastrophe in the earthquake activity.It is a new method.In thispaper,a brief introduction of the basic principle about damage dynamics and evolution ismade.At the same time,using the theory of the pattern dynamics we studied all earthquakes(M_L≥5.0)which occurred along Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea earthquake belt in the capitalregion.The result indicates that the preparation and happening of the real earthquakes andthe theory are consistent.There are two kinds of evolutional model according to the finalstate,namely,global stability model(GS)and evolution induced catastrophe model(EIC).The two models haven’t evident boundary.The transitional zone exhibits the indeterminacyof the seismic process and the effect of the random variation.This research proposed newapproaches for earthquake prediction. 相似文献
19.
The enumerating algorithm has been introduced into the fitting procedure of the ASR model. Based on the detailed study of 21 large earthquakes with M≥6. 8 in the Chinese Mainland,the statistical features of seismic strain release before large earthquakes have been summarized. In the mass,the strain release models can be divided into five types. The first is the DA model,in which the strain release accelerates in broader areas and decelerates in small areas around the epicenter. Approximately 38% of earthquake samples are of this type. The second is the AD model,in which the strain release decelerates in broader areas and accelerates in smaller areas around the epicenter with an occupying ratioof approximately 19%. The third is ASR,in which only accelerating strain release can be observed. Cases of this model amount to about 14%. The fourth is DSR,in which only decelerating strain release can be checked,amounting to about 24%. There is only one earthquake sample of the fifth type (LSR),which shows a linear strain release. There is a 3～6 years difference in the duration of pre-shock sequences between the accelerating and decelerating models. This means that seismic quiescence against a background of increased seismicity of small earthquakes before large earthquakes are a typical feature in general. For the DA model,the average size of critical regions for steady accelerating and decelerating strain release is about 260km to 400km and 100km to 200km,respectively,3 to 5 times and 1 to 2 times the rupture size of an earthquake of magnitude 7. 0. The AD model is the opposite of the DA model. The model parameter,m value,has good stability. The ratio of ASR is about the same for accelerating seismic strain release phenomena,no matter what the strain release models are,or how large the strain release quantity is. With regard to decelerating seismic strain release phenomena, the DA model has the most distinctive decelerating strain release characteristic and is the typical feature of seismic strain release,i. e. "decelerating in-accelerating out seismic strain model". 相似文献
20.
The methods were discussed to calculate the gravity variation due to crustal deformation based on a model of dis-location on a finite rectangular plane.Taking the Lijiang Ms=7.0 earthquake as an example the calculating princi-ple of fault parameters were determined,and the results were given.Of particular interests were the characteristics of the gravity variations in different dislocation types.With comparison between the calculated results and the practical measurements,it was found that the model could to some extent account for the observations.But it failed to give explanations to the more far spatial gravity variation. 相似文献