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1.
Climate effects of land use change in China as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2)are investigated. The model is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Two multi-year simulations, one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover, are conducted. Statistically significant changes of precipitation, surface air temperature, and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are analyzed based on the difference between the two simulations. The simulated effects of land use change over China include a decrease of mean annual precipitation over Northwest China, a region with a prevalence of arid and semi-arid areas;an increase of mean annual surfaoe air temperature over some areas; and a decrease of temperature along coastal areas. Summer mean daily maximum temperature increases in many locations, while winter mean daily minimum temperature decreases in East China and increases in Northwest China. The upper soil moisture decreases significantly across China. The results indicate that the same land use change may cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics.  相似文献   

2.
Two land surface models, Community Land Model (CLM3.5) and NOAH model, have been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and been used to simulate the precipitation, temperature, and circulation fields, respectively, over eastern China in a typical flood year (1998). The purpose of this study is to reveal the effects of land surface changes on regional climate modeling. Comparisons of simulated results and observation data indicate that changes in land surface processes have significant impact on spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature patterns in eastern China. Coupling of the CLM3.5 to the WRF model (experiment WRF-C) substantially improves the simulation results over eastern China relative to an older version of WRF coupled to the NOAH-LSM (experiment WRF-N). It is found that the simulation of the spatial pattern of summer precipitation in WRF-C is better than in WRF-N. WRF-C also significantly reduces the summer positive bias of surface air temperature, and its simulated surface air temperature matches more closely to observations than WRF-N does, which is associated with lower sensible heat fluxes and higher latent heat fluxes in WRF-C.  相似文献   

3.
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China. The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA40)data. Two sets of experiments for 15 yr (1987-2001) are conducted, one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use (AG). The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter (December-January-February) and summer (June-July-August). The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China (SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast (SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5℃ and 0.8℃, respectively. In general, the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1℃ in southern China. Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter, with the maximum reduction reaching -7.5% over SE. A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%. The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability. Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use (LU) is also performed. In southern China, the ratio of temperature (precipitation)changes caused by AG and LU is greater than (closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.  相似文献   

4.
A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.  相似文献   

5.
The atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes in Asia has an important influence on regional climate, yet its long-term variation has not been fully explored. The main task of this study is to reveal the interdecadal variation features of summer atmospheric circulation over Asian mid-high latitudes in recent decades. The results show that the atmospheric circulation over mid-high latitudes of Asia has stronger interdecadal fluctuations than that over low latitudes and one significant change center appears near Lake Baikal. It is found that the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal has a significant interdecadal change around 1996 and a deep anomalous anticyclonic circulation has been controlling this region since then, which contributes to the significant increase in the surface temperature near Lake Baikal since 1997 and makes the region a remarkable warming center in Asia in recent 40 years. During 1997-2015, the pattern of less precipitation in the north and more precipitation in the south of east China is closely related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal. Especially, this anomalous circulation near Lake Baikal has been found to contribute to the obvious interdecadal decrease of the precipitation in northeast China and north China near 1997. The sea surface temperature (SST) of northwestern Atlantic is an important influence factor to the interdecadal change in the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal around 1996.  相似文献   

6.
Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around 1991, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate warming. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate warming was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastern China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastern China.  相似文献   

7.
Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral boundaries by two global models for the period 1981–2050. The focus of the study was on the ensemble projection of climate change in the mid-21 st century(2031–50) over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day(1981–2000) December–February(DJF), June–August(JJA), and annual(ANN) mean temperature and precipitation. Significant warming was projected for the mid-21 st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season(monsoon precipitation).  相似文献   

8.
The linkage between the Asian-Pacific oscillation(APO)and the precipitation over central eastern China in spring is preliminarily addressed by use of the observed data.Results show that they correlate very well,with the positive(negative)phase of APO tending to increase(decrease)the precipitation over central eastern China.Such a relationship can be explained by the atmospheric circulation changes over Asia and the North Pacific in association with the anomalous APO.A positive phase of APO,characterized by a positive anomaly over Asia and a negative anomaly over the North Pacific in the upper-tropospheric temperature,corresponds to decreased low-level geopotential height(H)and increased high-level H over Asia,and these effects are concurrent with increased low-level H and decreased high-level H over the North Pacific.Meanwhile,an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere are introduced in East Asia,and the low-level southerly wind is strengthened over central eastern China.These changes provide advantageous conditions for enhanced precipitation over central eastern China.The situation is reversed in the negative phase of APO,leading to reduced precipitation in this region.  相似文献   

9.
This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years.It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average.The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1℃over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8℃over the past 100 years,slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods.Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature.Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable,with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase,and North China a severe drought.Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings,show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases,while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity,volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change.A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration)and the IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences),as well as 40 models developed overseas,indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century,with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China.Under varied emission scenarios,the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1℃by 2020,2.3-3.3℃by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0℃by 2100,in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961 1990.Most models project a 10% 12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100,with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China,but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend.Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation,and further studies are needed.Furthermore,anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia.  相似文献   

10.
Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July–August over China in response to CO 2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models’ performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ～50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ～2–3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.  相似文献   

11.
A regional climate model(Reg CM4) is employed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China(ENW) in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The results indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was characterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature(within ~0.3°C) and slight regional changes in precipitation(within ~15%) in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures increased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature increase in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.  相似文献   

12.
Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.This is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 km.The present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future changes.Validation of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 model.Significant warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the simulations.The high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to RCP4.5.The two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.  相似文献   

13.
The spectral characteristics of precipitation intensity during warm and cold years are compared in six regions of China based on precipitation data at 404 meteorological stations during 1961-2006.In all of the studied regions except North China,with the increasing temperature,a decreasing trend is observed in light precipitation and the number of light precipitation days,while an increasing trend appears in heavy precipitation and the heavy precipitation days.Although changes in precipitation days in North China are similar to the changes in the other five regions,heavy precipitation decreases with the increasing temperature in this region.These results indicate that in most parts of China,the amount of precipitation and number of precipitation days have shifted towards heavy precipitation under the background of a warming climate;however,the responses of precipitation distributions to global warming differ from place to place.The number of light precipitation days decreases in the warm and humid regions of China(Jianghuai region,South China,and Southwest China),while the increasing amplitude of heavy precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days are greater in the warm and humid regions of China than that in the northern regions(North China,Northwest China,and Northeast China).In addition,changes are much more obvious in winter than in summer,indicating that the changes in the precipitation frequency are more affected by the increasing temperature during winter than summer.The shape and scale parameters of the Γ distribution of daily precipitation at most stations of China have increased under the background of global warming.The scale parameter changes are smaller than the shape parameter changes in all regions except Northwest China.This suggests that daily precipitation shifts toward heavy precipitation in China under the warming climate.The number of extreme precipitation events increases slightly,indicating that changes in the Γ distribution fitting parameters reflect changes in the regional precipitation distribution structure.  相似文献   

14.
Regional climate change in China under the IPCC A2 Scenario, was simulated for continuous 10-yr period by the MM5V3, using the output of an IPCC A2 run from CISRO Mark 3 climate system model as lateral and surface boundary conditions. The regional climate change of surface air temperature, precipitation, and circulation were analyzed. The results showed that （1） the distribution of mean circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation was reproduced by the MM5V3. The regional climate model was capable to improve the regional climate simulation driven by GCM. （2） The climate change simulation under the IPCC A2 Scenario indicated that the surface air temperature in China would increase in the future, with a stronger trend in winter and the increasing magnitude from the south to the north. The precipitation distribution would appear a distinct change as well. Annual mean precipitation would remarkably increase in Northeast China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley, and the south area of the valley. Meanwhile, rainfall would show a decreasing trend in partial areas of North China, and many regions of Southwest and Northwest China.  相似文献   

15.
Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.  相似文献   

16.
Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.  相似文献   

17.
Many studies have shown evidence for significant changes in surface climate in different regions of the world and during different seasons over the past 100 years. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 720 climate stations in China, cluster analysis was used to identify regions in China that have experienced similar changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation during the 1971-2000 climate normal period. Differences in 11-day averages of daily mean temperature and total precipitation between the first （1971-1985） and second （1986-2000） halves of the record were analyzed using the Mann- Whitney U test and the global κ-means clustering algorithm. Results show that most parts of China experienced significant increases in temperature between the two periods, especially in winter, although some of this warming may be attributable to the urban heat island effect in large cities. Most of western China experienced more precipitation in 1986-2000, while precipitation decreased in the Yellow River valley. Changes in the summer monsoon were also evident, with decreases in precipitation during the onset and decay phases, and increases during the wettest period.  相似文献   

18.
This study investigated the second indirect climatic effect of anthropogenic aerosols,including sulfate,organic carbon(OC) ,and black carbon(BC) ,over East Asia.The seasonal variation of the climatic response to the second indirect effect was also characterized.The simulation period for this study was 2006.Due to a decrease in autoconversion rate from cloud water to rain as a result of aerosols,the cloud liquid water path(LWP) ,and radiative flux(RF) at the top of the atmosphere(TOA) changed dramatically,increasing by 14.3 g m-2 and decreasing by-4.1 W m-2 in terms of domain and annual average.Both LWP and RF changed most in autumn. There were strong decreases in ground temperature in Southwest China,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in spring and autumn,while maximum cooling of up to-1.5 K occurred in the Chongqing district.The regional and annual mean change in ground temperature reached-0.2 K over eastern China.In all seasons except summer,precipitation generally decreased in most areas north of the Yangtze River,whereas precipitation changed little in South China.Precipitation changed most in summer,with alternating bands of increasing(～40 mm) and decreasing(～40 mm) precipitation appearing in eastern China.Precipitation decreased by 1.5-40 mm over large areas of Northeast China and the Huabei Plain.The domain and annual mean change in precipitation was approximately-0.3 mm over eastern China.The maximum reduction in precipitation occurred in summer,with mean absolute and relative changes of-1.2 mm and-3.8%over eastern China.This study revealed considerable climate responses to the second indirect effect of aerosols over specific regions of China.  相似文献   

19.
The Weakening of the Asian Monsoon Circulation after the End of 1970＇s   总被引：43，自引：1，他引：43  
The transition of the global atmospheric circulation in the end of 1970＇s can clearly be detected in the atmospheric temperature, wind velocity, and so on. Wavelet analysis reveals that the temporal scale of this change is larger than 20 years. Studies in this work indicate that the trend of the transition over the mid-latitude Asia is opposite to that of global average for some variables at the middle troposphere. Another finding of this research is that the African-Asian monsoon circulation is weaker and the trade wind over the tropical eastern Pacific is weaker as well after this transition. Such a signal may be found in the summer precipitation over China as well.  相似文献   

20.
The numerical simulation experiment of climate at Last Glacial Maximum (LGM.21 ka BP)in China is made by using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled with landsurface processes (AGCM SSiB) and earth orbital parameters and boundary forcing conditions at21 ka.The modeled climate features are compared with reconstructed conditions at 21 ka frompaleo-lake data and pollen data.The results show that the simulated climate conditions at 21 ka inChina are fairly comparable with paleo-climatological data.The climate features at 21 ka in Chinafrom the experiment are characterized by a drier in the east and a wetter in the west and in theTibetan Plateau as well.According to the analysis of distribution of pressure and precipitation,aswell as the intensity of atmospheric circulation at 21 ka,monsoon circulation in eastern Asia wassignificantly weak comparing with the present.In the Tibetan Plateau,the intensity of summermonsoon circulation was strengthened,and winter monsoon was a little stronger than the present.The simulation with given forcing boundary conditions,especially the different vegetationcoverage,can reproduce the climate condition at the LGM in China,and therefore providesdynamical mechanisms on the climate changes at 21 ka.  相似文献   

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