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1.
本文在城市边界层预报模式中耦合了一个单层冠层模式,此模式能够体现城市冠层结构和人为热源对城市热岛的共同作用.通过传统平板模式和城市冠层模式的模拟结果与自动气象站观测资料对比发现,耦合了城市冠层模式的模拟结果与观测资料更为吻合,尤其能够较好地模拟出城市地区夜间地面的气温变化情况.对北京城市区域的模拟结果进行分析,白家庄地区冠层建筑物使得城市地区气温白天下降,夜晚上升,不考虑人为热源作用时,城市冠层使得白家庄站地面气温白天最低下降2.5℃,夜间气温最大升高为4.7℃.针对模拟区域较小的理想算例模拟结果分析表明,城市冠层模式能够很好地模拟城市地区地表能量平衡关系,体现城市冠层对长短波辐射的封截以及热量存储能力,全天平均净辐射通量由传统模式的43.38 W/m2变为84.19 W/m2,热存储通量白天最大值为278.04 W/m2,夜晚最大释放热存储通量为160.35 W/m2.冠层建筑物和人为热源对夜间城市热岛强度的贡献分别为70.65％和29.35％.城市冠层建筑物对夜间城市热岛的形成起决定性作用. 相似文献
2.
We consider a three-dimensional assimilation model of the ionosphere. We discuss the governing equations of the physical model and the data assimilation technique. We provide examples of the model results: plots of the calculated ionospheric parameters, such as the density and temperature of electrons and ions. We compare the model results with independent sources of data on the state of the ionosphere. We make some conclusions regarding the model accuracy and possible areas of its practical application. 相似文献
3.
C. Hsein Juang Susan Hui Yang Haiming Yuan Eng Hui Khor 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(9-10):771
As the profession moves toward the performance-based earthquake engineering design, it becomes more important and pressing to examine the uncertainty of the limit state model used for liquefaction potential evaluation. In this paper, the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model, a simplified model for liquefaction resistance and potential evaluation based on cone penetration test, is investigated in detail for its model uncertainty in the framework of first-order reliability analysis. The uncertainties of the parameters used in the Robertson and Wride model are also examined. The model uncertainty is estimated by calibration with a fairly large set of case histories. The results show that the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model may be characterized with a mean-to-nominal of 0.94 and a coefficient of variation of 0.15 based on the case histories examined. 相似文献
4.
AbstractThe sediment yield model of the MUSLE (modified universal soil loss equation) is applied extensively throughout the world, but different performances have been reported of its success relative to measured data. A review of all the available literature is presented to assess the application of the model under different conditions and, ultimately, make a comprehensive judgement on the different aspects to allow readers to adjust their further research. A review of 49 papers showed the variable accuracy of the model, which depends on the manner of calculation and determination of the input and output, and the study time and space scales. There were differences in land use, in correspondence of the physiographic characteristics with those of the original conditions of model development, and even in the experience of researchers in applying the model. The results also show the need to consider the original application of the model, as proposed by its developers, to achieve comparable results.Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Sadeghi, S.H.R., et al., 2014. A review of the application of the MUSLE model worldwide. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 365–375. 相似文献
5.
S.I. Braginsky 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1976,11(3):191-199
A short review of the present state of the nearly axially-symmetrical dynamo model is given. A simplified theory for hydromagnetic dynamos taking into account the forces acting in the Earth's core is considered. The role of weak core-mantle friction is discussed and a form of solution is suggested which is characterized by a large geostrophic velocity in the core and by a boundary layer of a new type. The consequences of such a model (called model Z) for the Earth's dynamo are discussed. 相似文献
6.
Hana Karousová Jaroslava Plomerová Vladislav Babu?ka 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2012,56(1):249-267
We have compiled a representative three-dimensional P-velocity model of the crust of the Bohemian Massif (BM) to provide a
basis for removing effects of the crustal structure in teleseismic tomography of the upper mantle. The model is primarily
based on recently published 2D velocity models from findings of wide-angle refraction and near-vertical reflection seismic
profiles of CELEBRATION 2000, ALP 2002, and SUDETES 2003 experiments. The best fitting 3D model of the BM crust (NearNeighbour
model) is complemented by velocities according to the reference Earth model at sites where data are sparse, which precludes
creating artificial heterogeneities that are products of interpolation method. To test the model, we have performed tomographic
inversions of the P-wave travel times measured during the BOHEMA II experiment and compared the results obtained with and
without crustal corrections. The tests showed that the presented crustal model decreases magnitudes of velocity perturbations
leaking from the crust to the mantle in the western part of the BM. The tomographic images also indicated a highvelocity anomaly
in the lower crust or just beneath the crust in the Brunovistullian unit. Such anomaly is not described by our model of the
crust since no seismic profile intersects this part of the unit. The tests also indicated that crustal corrections are of
the great importance especially for interpretations of the uppermost mantle down to depths of about 100 km. 相似文献
7.
Water Resources - The hydroecological simulation model GMV-MGU is applied to the Nizhnekamskoe Reservoir. The results of a series of diagnostic model calculations, which characterize the ecological... 相似文献
8.
Earthquake precursors used for earthquake prediction in the M8 algorithm [Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990a] are adapted to the sandpile grid model close to the Manna [1991] model. It is established that the adapted precursors are efficient for predicting the largest model earthquakes. However, as distinct from real seismicity, where activity outbursts often precede a large earthquake, the prediction of the model dynamics, is characterized by a certain quiescence. 相似文献
9.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of modified methods, developed on the basis of NRCS-CN method, in determining the size of an effective rainfall (direct runoff). The analyses were performed for the mountain catchment of the Kamienica river, right-hand tributary of the Dunajec. The amount of direct runoff was calculated using the following methods: (1) Original NRCS-CN model, (2) Mishra—Singh model (MS model), (3) Sahu Mishra Eldho model (SME model), (4) Sahu 1-p model, (5) Sahu 3-p model, and (6) Q_base model. The study results indicated that the amount of direct runoff, determined on the basis of the original NRCS-CN method, may differ significantly from the actually observed values. The best results were achieved when the direct runoff was determined using the SME and Sahu 3-p model. 相似文献
10.
On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a pronounced signal of climate variability in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature field. In this paper, we propose an explanation of the physical processes responsible for the timescale and the spatial pattern of the AMO. Our approach involves the analysis of solutions of a hierarchy of models. In the lowest member of the model hierarchy, which is an ocean-only model for flow in an idealized basin, the variability shows up as a multidecadal oscillatory mode which is able to destabilize the mean thermohaline circulation. In the highest member of the model hierarchy, which is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory R30 climate model, multidecadal variability is found as a dominant statistical mode of variability. The connection between both results is established by tracing the spatial and temporal expression of the multidecadal mode through the model hierarchy while monitoring changes in specific quantities (mechanistic indicators) associated with its physics. The proposed explanation of the properties of the AMO is eventually based on the changes in the spatial patterns of variability through the model hierarchy.Responsible Editor: Tal Ezer 相似文献
11.
Closure of the gap at the abutment joints of bridges has been the source of extensive damage during the 1971 San Fernando and more recent earthquakes. In this paper a model for the investigation of the effects of this gap closure is presented and analysed. The focus of the model is the representation of the non-linear response of the bridge abutments, the foundation and the columns. The model is used for the investigation of the response of a short bridge located in California. 相似文献
12.
The Nash model was used for application of the Kalman filter. The state vector of the rainfall–runoff system was constituted by the IUH (instantaneous unit hydrograph) estimated by the Nash model and the runoff estimated by the Nash model using the Kalman filter. The initial values of the state vector were assumed as the average of 10% of the IUH peak values and the initial runoff estimated from the average IUH. The Nash model using the Kalman filter with a recursive algorithm accurately predicted runoff from a basin in Korea. The filter allowed the IUH to vary in time, increased the accuracy of the Nash model and reduced physical uncertainty of the rainfall–runoff process in the river basin. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
利用福建爆破实验记录检验华南速度模型 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于2010~2012年"福建及台湾海峡地壳深部结构陆海联合探测"项目中18次爆破实验的准确发震时间、发震位置所确定的多震相走时数据,进行爆破震相特征分析,采用华南速度模型对单纯型、Hyposat、Hypo2000及Locsat等4种定位方法进行比较,得出最优定位方法。利用14炮爆破记录反演得到的速度模型与华南速度模型作比较,结果表明,反演模型的上地壳厚度小于华南模型的,下地壳厚度大于华南模型的,上地壳速度与华南模型的相当,下地壳速度大于华南模型的。利用本研究的反演结果对其他4次爆破进行重新定位,定位精度明显提高。 相似文献
14.
The objective of this study was to calibrate the Everglades Wetland Hydrodynamic Model (EWHM) to the Everglades Nutrient Removal (ENR) Project, from April 1995 through July of 1996. Model predictions were evaluated graphically and statistically against field observations to quantify the accuracy of model predictions and evaluate the success of model calibration. Comparisons between model predictions and field observations of water surface elevations at interior stations indicated that the model was successfully calibrated and model predictions were highly correlated with observed water surface elevations (r2 ranged from 0.79 to 0.84). Model-predicted chloride (Cl) concentrations fell within the observed range of field observations, further confirming the success of model calibration. Good agreement found in these comparisons between observed and predicted results warrants the use of the model in a predictive mode. This is further supported by noting that the model contains no adjustable constants and requires no computational fitting of parameters to experimental data as is necessary in many previous obstructed flow studies. 相似文献
15.
Jenő Reiczigel Katharina Brugger Franz Rubel Norbert Solymosi Zsolt Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(3):455-462
The Usutu virus is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes and causing disease in birds. The virus was detected in Austria
for the first time in 2001, while a major outbreak occurred in 2003. Rubel et al. (2008) developed a nine-compartment deterministic SEIR model to explain the spread of the disease. We extended this to a hierarchical
Bayes model assuming random variation in temperature data, in reproduction data of birds, and in the number of birds found
to be infected. The model was implemented in R, combined with the FORTRAN subroutine for the original deterministic model.
Analysis was made by MCMC using a random walk Metropolis scheme. Posterior means, medians, and credible intervals were calculated
for the parameters. The hierarchical Bayes approach proved to be fruitful in extending the deterministic model into a stochastic
one. It allowed for Bayesian point and interval estimation and quantification of uncertainty of predictions. The analysis
revealed that some model parameters were not identifiable; therefore we kept constant some of them and analyzed others conditional
on them. Identifiability problems are common in models aiming to mirror the mechanism of the process, since parameters with
natural interpretation are likely to exhibit interrelationships. This study illustrated that Bayesian modeling combined with
conditional analysis may help in those cases. Its application to the Usutu model improved model fit and revealed the structure
of interdependencies between model parameters: it demonstrated that determining some of them experimentally would enable estimation
of the others, except one of them, from available data. 相似文献
16.
利用非线性误差增长理论,以Lorenz系统为例比较研究了初始误差和参数误差对混沌系统可预报性的影响．结果表明：在初始误差和参数误差单独存在时,系统的可预报期限随误差大小的变化规律基本上相同;对于相同的误差大小,初始误差和参数误差对系统可预报期限的影响几乎相同,这一结果基本上不随参数范围的变化而变化．当初始误差和参数误差同时存在时,两者对可预报期限影响所起的作用大小主要取决于初始误差和参数误差的相对大小．当初始误差远大于参数误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由初始误差决定,可以不用考虑参数误差对预报模式可预报性的影响;反之,当参数误差远大于初始误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由参数误差决定;当初始误差和参数误差大小相当时,两者都对系统的可预报期限起重要作用．在后两种情况下,在考虑初始误差对可预报性影响的同时还必须考虑参数误差的作用．这提醒我们在作实际数值天气预报的时候,不仅要重视初值的确定,也要重视数值模式控制参数的确定． 相似文献
17.
The three important greenhouse gases, namely CO2, CH4 and N2O[1,2], participate in the process of carbon and nitrogen cycling in the paddy field simultaneously. CO2 is assimilated by rice through photosynthesis, which means the paddy field is the sink of … 相似文献
18.
This study examines the circulation and associated monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea using a regional ocean
circulation model. The model domain covers the region between 99.0 and 54.0°W and between 8.0 and 30.3°N, with a horizontal
resolution of 1/6°. The ocean circulation model is driven by 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data from the National Center
for Environmental Prediction and boundary forcing extracted from 5-day global ocean reanalysis data produced by Smith et al.
(Mercator Newsletter 36:39–49, 2010), and integrated for 7 years. A comparison of model results with observations demonstrates that the regional ocean circulation
model has skill in simulating circulation and associated variability in the study region. Analysis of the model results, as
well as a companion model run that uses steady annual mean forcing, illustrates the role of Caribbean eddies for driving monthly-to-seasonal
circulation variability in the model. It is found that vertically integrated transport between Nicaragua and Jamaica is influenced
by the interaction between the density perturbations associated with Caribbean eddies and the Nicaraguan Ridge. The impact
of Caribbean eddies squeezing through the Yucatan Channel is also discussed. 相似文献
19.
The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.
相似文献20.
The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth??s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth??s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach. 相似文献