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1.
Critical uncertainty parameters influencing seismic performance of bridges using Lasso regression 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Recent efforts of regional risk assessment of structures often pose a challenge in dealing with the potentially variable uncertain input parameters. The source of uncertainties can be either epistemic or aleatoric. This article identifies uncertain variables exhibiting strongest influences on the seismic demand of bridge components through various regression techniques such as linear, stepwise, Ridge, Lasso, and elastic net regressions. The statistical results indicate that Lasso regression is the most effective one in predicting the demand model as it has the lowest mean square error and absolute error. As the sensitivity study identifies more than 1 significant variable, a multiparameter fragility model using Lasso regression is suggested in this paper. The proposed fragility methodology is able to identify the relative impact of each uncertain input variable and level of treatment needed for these variables in the estimation of seismic demand models and fragility curves. Thus, the proposed approach helps bridge owners to spend their resources judiciously (e.g., data collection, field investigations, and censoring) in the generation of a more reliable database for regional risk assessment. This proposed approach can be applicable to other structures. 相似文献
2.
A new methodology for the development of bridge‐specific fragility curves is proposed with a view to improving the reliability of loss assessment in road networks and prioritising retrofit of the bridge stock. The key features of the proposed methodology are the explicit definition of critical limit state thresholds for individual bridge components, with consideration of the effect of varying geometry, material properties, reinforcement and loading patterns on the component capacity; the methodology also includes the quantification of uncertainty in capacity, demand and damage state definition. Advanced analysis methods and tools (nonlinear static analysis and incremental dynamic response history analysis) are used for bridge component capacity and demand estimation, while reduced sampling techniques are used for uncertainty treatment. Whereas uncertainty in both capacity and demand is estimated from nonlinear analysis of detailed inelastic models, in practical application to bridge stocks, the demand is estimated through a standard response spectrum analysis of a simplified elastic model of the bridge. The simplified methodology can be efficiently applied to a large number of bridges (with different characteristics) within a road network, by means of an ad hoc developed software involving the use of a generic (elastic) bridge model, which derives bridge‐specific fragility curves. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Methodology for the development of analytical fragility curves for retrofitted bridges 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Fragility curves for retrofitted bridges indicate the influence of various retrofit measures on the probability of achieving specified levels of damage. This paper presents an analytical methodology for developing fragility curves for classes of retrofitted bridge systems. The approach captures the impact of retrofit on the vulnerability of multiple components, which to date has not been adequately addressed, and results in a comparison of the system fragility before and after the application of different retrofit measures. Details presented include analytical modeling, uncertainty treatment, impact of retrofit on demand models, capacity estimates, and component and system fragility curves. The findings indicate the importance of evaluating the impact of retrofit not only on the targeted response quantity and component vulnerability but also on the overall bridge fragility. As illustrated by the case study of a retrofitted multi‐span continuous (MSC) concrete girder bridge class, a given retrofit measure may have a positive impact on some components, yet no impact or a negative impact on other critical components. Consideration of the fragility based only on individual retrofitted components, without regard for the system, may lead to over‐estimation or under‐estimation of the impact on the bridge fragility. The proposed methodology provides an opportunity to effectively compare the fragility of the MSC concrete bridge retrofit with a range of different retrofit measures. The most effective retrofit in reducing probable damage for a given intensity is a function of the damage state of interest. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Bridge fragility curves, which express the probability of a bridge reaching a certain damage state for a given ground motion parameter, play an important role in the overall seismic risk assessment of a transportation network. Current analytical methodologies for generating bridge fragility curves do not adequately account for all major contributing bridge components. Studies have shown that for some bridge types, neglecting to account for all of these components can lead to a misrepresentation of the bridges' overall fragilities. In this study, an expanded methodology for the generation of analytical fragility curves for highway bridges is presented. This methodology considers the contribution of the major components of the bridge, such as the columns, bearings and abutments, to its overall bridge system fragility. In particular, this methodology utilizes probability tools to directly estimate the bridge system fragility from the individual component fragilities. This is illustrated using a bridge whose construction and configuration are typical to the Central and Southeastern United States and the results are presented and discussed herein. This study shows that the bridge as a system is more fragile than any one of the individual components. Assuming that the columns represent the entire bridge system can result in errors as large as 50% at higher damage states. This provides support to the assertion that multiple bridge components should be considered in the development of bridge fragility curves. The findings also show that estimation of the bridge fragilities by their first‐order bounds could result in errors of up to 40%. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
A performance-based adaptive methodology for the seismic evaluation of multi-span simply supported deck bridges 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Donatello Cardone Giuseppe Perrone Salvatore Sofia 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(5):1463-1498
A performance-based adaptive methodology for the seismic assessment of highway bridges is proposed. The proposed methodology
is based on an Inverse (I), Adaptive (A) application of the Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM), with the capacity curve of the
bridge derived through a Displacement-based Adaptive Pushover (DAP) analysis. For this reason, the acronym IACSM is used to
identify the proposed methodology. A number of Performance Levels (PLs), for which the seismic vulnerability and seismic risk
of the bridge shall be evaluated, are identified. Each PL is associated to a number of Damage States (DSs) of the critical
members of the bridge (piers, abutments, joints and bearing devices). The IACSM provides the earthquake intensity level (PGA)
corresponding to the attainment of the selected DSs, using over-damped elastic response spectra as demand curves. The seismic
vulnerability of the bridge is described by means of fragility curves, derived based on the PGA values associated to each
DS. The seismic risk of the bridge is evaluated as convolution integral of the product between the fragility curves and the
seismic hazard curve of the bridge site. In this paper, the key aspects and basic assumptions of the proposed methodology
are presented first. The IACSM is then applied to nine existing simply supported deck bridges, characterized by different
types of piers and bearing devices. Finally, the IACSM predictions are compared with the results of nonlinear response time-history
analysis, carried out using a set of seven ground motions scaled to the expected PGA values. 相似文献
6.
Ioannis F. Moschonas Andreas J. Kappos Panagiotis Panetsos Vissarion Papadopoulos Triantafyllos Makarios Pavlos Thanopoulos 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(2):439-468
This study focusses on the estimation of seismic fragility curves for all common bridge types found in modern greek motorways.
At first a classification scheme is developed in order to classify the existing bridges into a sufficient number of classes.
A total of 11 representative bridge classes resulted, based on the type of piers, deck, and pier-to-deck connection. Then
an analytical methodology for deriving fragility curves is proposed and applied to the representative bridge models. This
procedure is based on pushover analysis of the entire bridge and definition of damage states in terms of parameters of the
bridge pushover curves. The procedure differentiates the way of defining damage according to the seismic energy dissipation
mechanism in each bridge, i.e. bridges with yielding piers of the column type and bridges with bearings (with or without seismic
links) and non-yielding piers of the wall type. The activation of the abutment-backfill system due to closure of the gap between
the deck and the abutments is also taken into account. The derived fragility curves are subjected to a first calibration against
empirical curves based on damage data from the US and Japan. 相似文献
7.
Fragility curves constitute an emerging tool for the seismic risk assessment of all constructions at risk. They describe the probability of a structure being damaged beyond a specific damage state for various levels of ground shaking. They are usually represented as two-parameter (median and log-standard deviation) cumulative lognormal distributions. In this paper a numerical approach is proposed for the construction of fragility curves for geotechnical constructions. The methodology is applied to cantilever bridge abutments on surface foundation often used in road and railway networks. The response of the abutment to increasing levels of seismic intensity is evaluated using a 2D nonlinear FE model, with an elasto-plastic criterion to simulate the soil behavior. A calibration procedure is followed in order to account for the dependency of both the stiffness and the damping on the soil strain level. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the global soil and structural response is taken into account considering different typical soil profiles and seismic input motions. The objective is to assess the vulnerability of the road network as regards the performance of the bridge abutments; therefore, the level of damage, is described in terms of the range of settlement that is observed on the backfill. The effect of backfill material to the overall response of the abutment wall is also examined. The fragility curves are estimated based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of the structure geometry, the input motion and the soil properties as well as the associated uncertainties. The proposed fragility curves are verified based on observed damage during the 2007 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki earthquake. 相似文献
8.
考虑高强钢筋、ECC等高性能材料在桥梁工程中的推广应用,针对普通钢筋混凝土桥墩抗震性能相对较差的情况,研究高强钢筋ECC-RC复合桥墩的桥梁抗震性能。通过OpenSees平台建立普通RC桥墩桥梁、ECC-RC复合桥墩桥梁及高强钢筋ECC-RC复合桥墩桥梁非线性有限元模型,采用增量动力法和"能力需求比"分析方法建立桥梁各构件及系统的地震易损性曲线,探讨高强钢筋及ECC对桥梁抗震性能的影响。研究表明:ECC-RC、高强钢筋ECC-RC复合桥墩及其桥梁系统的地震易损性均有改善,且高强钢筋ECC的改善效果更显著,高强钢筋ECC-RC复合桥墩支座的地震易损性有所降低,高强钢筋及ECC的应用有助于提高桥墩和桥梁系统抗震性能和安全性,特别是在中震及大震作用下这一现象更加明显。 相似文献
9.
桥梁在长期服役过程中面临的氯离子侵蚀作用会导致材料性能退化,进而影响桥梁结构的抗震性能。准确评估服役桥梁的抗震性能可以有效保障和提高桥梁结构的安全性,因此开展考虑时变效应的桥梁地震易损性分析非常必要。考虑到地震易损性分析涉及大量的动力时程分析,计算效率很低,故采用高斯过程模型取代耗时的动力时程分析,旨在提高地震易损性分析效率。以一座三跨连续梁桥为例,探究氯离子侵蚀作用下桥墩材料性能的退化规律,建立纵筋、箍筋以及保护层和核心混凝土材料性能退化时变曲线;基于高斯过程模型和联合概率地震需求模型,建立桥梁系统在不同服役年限下的易损性曲线和曲面。结果表明：(1)氯离子侵蚀作用明显降低了桥墩钢筋混凝土材料的强度;(2)氯离子侵蚀作用明显提高了高等级损伤的桥梁地震易损性,结构更容易发生高等级损伤。 相似文献
10.
Computation of bridge seismic fragility by large‐scale simulation for probabilistic resilience analysis 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Seismic resilience of structures and infrastructure systems is a fast developing concept in the field of disaster management, promoting communities that are resistant and quickly recoverable in case of an extreme event. In this contest, probabilistic seismic demand and fragility analyses are two key elements of the seismic resilience assessment in the majority of the proposed methodologies. Several techniques are available to calculate fragility curves for different types of structures. In particular, to assess the seismic performance of the regional transportation infrastructure, methods for the fragility curve estimation for entire classes of bridges are required. These methods usually rely on a set of assumptions, partially because of the limited information. Other assumptions were introduced at the time when computational resources were inadequate for a purely numerical approach and closed‐form solutions were a convenient alternative. For instance, some of these popular assumptions are aimed at simplifying the model of the engineering demand. In this paper, a simulation‐based methodology is proposed, to take advantage of the computational resources widely available today and avoid such assumptions on the demand. The resulting increase in accuracy is estimated on a typical class of bridges (multi‐span simply supported). Most importantly, the quantitative impact of the assumptions is assessed in the context of a life‐cycle loss estimation analysis and resilience analysis. The results show that some assumptions preserve an acceptable level of accuracy, but others introduce a considerable error in the fragility curves and, in turn, in the expected resilience and life‐cycle losses of the structure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
Seismic fragility analysis of highway bridges considering multi-dimensional performance limit state 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Fragility analysis for highway bridges has become increasingly important in the risk assessment of highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. This study introduces a methodology to calculate fragility that considers multi-dimensional performance limit state parameters and makes a first attempt to develop fragility curves for a multi-span continuous (MSC) concrete girder bridge considering two performance limit state parameters: column ductility and transverse deformation in the abutments. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the performance limit states, which are compared with the seismic response parameters in the calculation of fragility, should be properly modeled as randomly interdependent variables instead of deterministic quantities. The sensitivity of fragility curves is also investigated when the dependency between the limit states is different. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to describe the vulnerable behavior of bridges which are sensitive to multiple response parameters and that the fragility information generated by this method will be more reliable and likely to be implemented into transportation network loss estimation. 相似文献
12.
Fragility curves express the probability of structural damage due to earthquakes as a function of ground motion indices, e.g., PGA, PGV. Based on the actual damage data of highway bridges from the 1995 Hyogoken‐Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, a set of empirical fragility curves was constructed. However, the type of structure, structural performance (static and dynamic) and variation of input ground motion were not considered to construct the empirical fragility curves. In this study, an analytical approach was adopted to construct fragility curves for highway bridge piers of specific bridges. A typical bridge structure was considered and its piers were designed according to the seismic design codes in Japan. Using the strong motion records from Japan and the United States, non‐linear dynamic response analyses were performed, and the damage indices for the bridge piers were obtained. Using the damage indices and ground motion indices, fragility curves for the bridge piers were constructed assuming a lognormal distribution. The analytical fragility curves were compared with the empirical ones. The proposed approach may be used in constructing the fragility curves for highway bridge structures. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Seismic fragility curves provide a powerful tool to assess the reliability of structures. However, conventional fragility analysis of structures comprising a large number of components requires enormous computational efforts. In this paper, the application of probabilistic support vector machines (PSVM) for the system fragility analysis of existing structures is proposed. It is demonstrated that support vector machine based fragility curves provide accurate predictions compared to rigorous methodologies such as component based fragilities developed by Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed method is applied to an existing bridge structure in order to develop fragility curves for serviceability and collapse limit states. In addition, the efficiency of using the PSVM method in the application of vector-valued ground motion intensity measures (IM) as well as traditional single-valued IM are investigated. The results obtained from an incremental dynamic analysis of the structure are used to train PSVMs. The application of PSVM in binary and multi-class classifications is used for the fragility analysis and reliability assessment of the bridge structure. 相似文献
14.
The paper illustrates a probabilistic methodology for assessing the vulnerability of existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with limited ductility capacity retrofitted by means of dissipative braces. The aim is to highlight the most important parameters controlling the capacity of these coupled systems and specific aspects concerning the response uncertainties. The proposed methodology is based on the use of local engineering demand parameters for monitoring the seismic response and on the development of component and system fragility curves before and after the retrofit. In the first part of the paper, the methodology is illustrated by highlighting its advantages with respect to the existing approaches. Then, its capability and effectiveness are tested by considering a benchmark two‐dimensional RC frame designed for gravity‐loads only. The frame is retrofitted by introducing elasto‐plastic dissipative braces designed for different levels of base shear capacity. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the methodology in describing the changes in the response and in the failure modalities before and after the retrofit, for different retrofit levels. Moreover, the retrofit effectiveness is evaluated by introducing proper synthetic parameters describing the fragility curves and by stressing the importance of employing local engineering demand parameters (EDPs) rather than global EDPs in the seismic risk evaluation of coupled systems consisting in low‐ductility RC frames and dissipative braces. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
为进一步评估隔震曲线梁桥在地震激励下的抗震性能,从地震易损性角度出发并兼顾考虑地震激励方向对其易损性的影响。利用APDL建立采用板式橡胶支座的隔震曲线梁桥有限元模型,从PEER中选取同一地震事件中的近断层地震动,按规范规定比例输入水平双向地震动进行非线性动力时程分析,结合地震响应与损伤指标计算得到各构件地震易损性曲线;考虑地震激励方向的变化,通过MATLAB编程绘制得到桥梁结构构件(桥墩与支座)以及整体系统的地震易损性曲面,分析探讨地震激励方向对隔震曲线梁桥易损性的影响。结果表明：不同极限状态下各桥墩切向损伤条件概率明显大于其径向,各支座的切向与径向易损性相差不大,但仍是各支座的切向易损性略大于径向易损性;桥梁各构件(桥墩与支座)切向易损性对地震激励方向均表现出很强依赖性,而径向易损性对其的依赖性相对较弱,且伴随损伤等级的提高,构件易损性对地震激励方向更加敏感;桥梁整体系统易损性对地震激励方向的变化不太敏感,且因各构件响应之间的相关性较高,其系统易损性更接近于易损性最大的构件——易损性下限;当进行隔震曲线梁桥抗震性能评估时,应考虑不同地震激励方向对其地震易损性的影响,从而使得易损性分析... 相似文献
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This paper presents a method for seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures based on vector-valued intensity measure(v IM), which predicts the limit-state capacities efficiently with multi-intensity measures of seismic event. Accounting for the uncertainties of the bridge model, ten single-bent overpass bridge structures are taken as samples statistically using Latin hypercube sampling approach. 200 earthquake records are chosen randomly for the uncertainties of ground motions according to the site condition of the bridges. The uncertainties of structural capacity and seismic demand are evaluated with the ratios of demand to capacity in different damage state. By comparing the relative importance of different intensity measures, Sa(T1) and Sa(T2) are chosen as v IM. Then, the vector-valued fragility functions of different bridge components are developed. Finally, the system-level vulnerability of the bridge based on v IM is studied with DunnettSobel class correlation matrix which can consider the correlation effects of different bridge components. The study indicates that an increment IMs from a scalar IM to v IM results in a significant reduction in the dispersion of fragility functions and in the uncertainties in evaluating earthquake risk. The feasibility and validity of the proposed vulnerability analysis method is validated and the bridge is more vulnerable than any components. 相似文献
18.
The convex model approach is applied to derive the robust seismic fragility curves of a five-span isolated continuous girder bridge with lead rubber bearings (LRB) in China. The uncertainty of structure parameters (the yield force and the post-yield stiffness of LRB, the yield strength of steel bars, etc.) are considered in the convex model, and the uncertainty of earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by selecting 40 earthquake excitations of peak ground acceleration magnitudes ranging from 0.125 to 1.126 g. A 3-D finite element model is employed using the software package OpenSees by considering the nonlinearity in the bridge piers and the isolation bearings. Section ductility of piers and shearing strain isolation bearings are treated as damage indices. The cloud method and convex model approach are used to construct the seismic fragility curves of the bridge components (LRB and bridge piers) and the bridge system, respectively. The numerical results indicate that seismic fragility of the bridge system and bridge components will be underestimated without considering the uncertainty of structural parameters. Therefore, the failure probability P f,max had better be served as the seismic fragility, especially, the fragility of the bridge system is largely dictated by the fragility of LRB. Finally, the probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of the bridge is carried out according to the structural seismic risk estimate method. 相似文献
19.
Fragility curves are found to be useful tools for predicting the extent of probable damage. They show the probability of highway structure damage as a function of strong motion parameters, and they allow the estimation of a level of damage probability for a known ground motion index. In this study, an analytical approach was adopted to develop the fragility curves for highway bridges based on numerical simulation. Four typical RC bridge piers and two RC bridge structures were considered, of which one was a non‐isolated system and the other was an isolated system, and they were designed according to the seismic design code in Japan. From a total of 250 strong motion records, selected from Japan, the United States, and Taiwan, non‐linear time history analyses were performed, and the damage indices for the bridge structures were obtained. Using the damage indices and ground motion parameters, fragility curves for the four bridge piers and the two bridge structures were constructed assuming a lognormal distribution. It was found that there was a significant effect on the fragility curves due to the variation of structural parameters. The relationship between the fragility curve parameters and the over‐strength ratio of the structures was also obtained by performing a linear regression analysis. It was observed that the fragility curve parameters showed a strong correlation with the over‐strength ratio of the structures. Based on the observed correlation between the fragility curve parameters and the over‐strength ratio of the structures, a simplified method was developed to construct the fragility curves for highway bridges using 30 non‐isolated bridge models. The simplified method may be a very useful tool to construct the fragility curves for non‐isolated highway bridges in Japan, which fall within the same group and have similar characteristics. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
A performance‐based earthquake engineering approach is developed for the seismic risk assessment of fixed‐roof atmospheric steel liquid storage tanks. The proposed method is based on a surrogate single‐mass model that consists of elastic beam‐column elements and nonlinear springs. Appropriate component and system‐level damage states are defined, following the identification of commonly observed modes of failure that may occur during an earthquake. Incremental dynamic analysis and simplified cloud are offered as potential approaches to derive the distribution of response parameters given the seismic intensity. A parametric investigation that engages the aforementioned analysis methods is conducted on 3 tanks of varying geometry, considering both anchored and unanchored support conditions. Special attention is paid to the elephant's foot buckling formation, by offering extensive information on its capacity and demand representation within the seismic risk assessment process. Seismic fragility curves are initially extracted for the component‐level damage states, to compare the effect of each analysis approach on the estimated performance. The subsequent generation of system‐level fragility curves reveals the issue of nonsequential damage states, whereby significant damage may abruptly appear without precursory lighter damage states. 相似文献