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1.
This paper reports the phenological response of forest vegetation to climate change(changes in temperature and precipitation) based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI) time-series images from 2000 to 2015. The phenological parameters of forest vegetation in the Funiu Mountains during this period were determined from the temperature and precipitation data using the Savitzky–Golay filter method, dynamic threshold method, Mann-Kendall trend test, the Theil-Sen estimator, ANUSPLIN interpolation and correlation analyses. The results are summarized as follows:(1) The start of the growing season(SOS) of the forest vegetation mainly concentrated in day of year(DOY) 105–120, the end of the growing season(EOS) concentrated in DOY 285–315, and the growing season length(GSL) ranged between 165 and 195 days. There is an evident correlation between forest phenology and altitude. With increasing altitude, the SOS, EOS and GSL presented a significant delayed, advanced and shortening trend, respectively.(2) Both SOS and EOS of the forest vegetation displayed the delayed trend, the delayed pixels accounted for 76.57% and 83.81% of the total, respectively. The GSL of the forest vegetation was lengthened, and the lengthened pixels accounted for 61.21% of the total. The change in GSL was mainly caused by the decrease in spring temperature in the region.(3) The SOS of the forest vegetation was significantly partially correlated with the monthly average temperature in March, with most correlations being negative; that is, the delay in SOS was mainly attributed to the temperature decrease in March. The EOS was significantly partially correlated with precipitation in September, with most correlations being positive; that is, the EOS was clearly delayed with increasing precipitation in September. The GSL of the forest vegetation was influenced by both temperature and precipitation throughout the growing season. For most regions, GSL was most closely related to the monthly average temperature and precipitation in August.  相似文献   

2.
The temperate monsoon area of China is an important agricultural region but late spring frosts have frequently caused significant damage to plants there. Based on phenological data derived from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON), corresponding meteorological data from 12 study sites and phenological modeling, changes in flowering times of multiple woody plants and the frequency of frost occurrence were analyzed. Through these analyses, frost risk during the flowering period at each site was estimated. Results of these estimates suggested that first flowering dates (FFD) in the study area advanced significantly from 1963 to 2009 at an average rate of -1.52 days/decade in North-east China (P〈0.01) and -2.22 days/decade (P〈0.01) in North China. Over the same period, the number of frost days in spring decreased and the last frost days advanced across the study area. Considering both flowering phenology and occurrence of frost, the frost risk index, which measures the percentage of species exposed to frost during the flowering period in spring, exhibited a decreasing trend of -0.37% per decade (insignificant) in Northeast China and -1.80% per decade (P〈0.01) in North China, implying that frost risk has reduced over the past half century. These conclusions provide important information to agriculture and forest managers in devising frost protection schemes in the region.  相似文献   

3.
中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的时空响应(英文)   总被引:8,自引:4,他引:4  
Temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in the whole year,spring,summer and autumn was analyzed from April 1998 to March 2008 based on the SPOT VGT-NDVI data and daily temperature and precipitation data from 205 meteorological stations in eastern China.The results indicate that as a whole,the response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced than that of precipitation in eastern China.Vegetation NDVI maxi...  相似文献   

4.
Cryophenological records (i.e. observational series of freeze and breakup dates of ice) are of great importance when assessing the environmental variations in cold regions. Here we employed the extraordinarily long observational records of river ice breakup dates and air temperatures in northern Fennoscandia to examine their interrelations since 1802. Historical observations, along with modern data, comprise the informational setting for this analysis carried out using t-test. Temperature history of April-May season was used as cli- matic counterpart for the breakup timings. Both records (temperature and breakup) showed seven sub-periods during which their local means were distinctly different relative to preced- ing and subsequent sub-periods. The starting and ending years of these sub-periods oc- curred in temporal agreement. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) the synchrony between the temperature and river ice breakup records ruled out the possibility that the changes would have occurred due to quality of the historical series (i.e. inhomoge- neity problems often linked to historical time-series); (2) the studied records agreed to show lower spring temperatures and later river ice breakups during the 19th century, in comparison to the 20th century conditions, evidencing the prevalence of cooler spring temperatures in the study region, in agreement with the concept of the Little Ice Age (1570-1900) climate in North-West Europe; (3) the most recent sub-period demonstrate the highest spring tem- peratures with concomitantly earliest river ice breakups, showing the relative warmth of the current springtime climate in the study region in the context of the past two centuries; (4) the effects of anthropogenic changes in the river environment (e.g. construction and demolition of dams) during the 20th century should be considered for non-climatic variations in the breakup records; (5) this study emphasizes the importance of multi-centurial (i.e. historical) cryo- phenological information for highly interesting viewpoints of climate and environmental his- tory.  相似文献   

5.
Global climate change has been evident in many places worldwide. This study provides a better understanding of the variability and changes in frequency, intensity, and duration of temperature, precipitation, and climate extremes in the Extensive Hexi Region, based on meteorological data from 26 stations. The analysis of average, maximum, and minimum temperatures revealed that statistically significant warming occurred from 1960 to 2011. All temperature extremes displayed trends consistent with warming, with the exception of coldest-night temperature(TNn) and coldest-day temperature(TXn), which were particularly evident in high-altitude areas and at night. Amount of precipitation and number of rainy days slowly increased with no significant regional trends, mainly occurring in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. The significance of changes in precipitation extremes during 1960–2011 was high, but the regional trends of maximum 5-day precipitation(RX5day), the average precipitation on wet days(SDII), and consecutive wet days(CWD) were not significant. The variations in the studied parameters indicate an increase in both the extremity and strength of precipitation events, particularly in higher-altitude regions. Furthermore, the contribution from very wet precipitation(R95) and extremely wet precipitation(R99) to total precipitation also increased between 1960 and 2011. The assessment of these changes in temperature and precipitation may help in developing better management practices for water resources. Future studies in the region should focus on the impact of these changes on runoffs and glaciers.  相似文献   

6.
长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli- matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.  相似文献   

7.
Based on TIMESAT 3.2 platform, MODIS NDVI data(2000–2015) of Qaidam Basin are fitted, and three main phenological parameters are extracted with the method of dynamic threshold, including the start of growth season(SGS), the end of growth season(EGS) and the length of growth season(LGS). The spatial and temporal variation of vegetation phenology and its response to climate changes are analyzed respectively. The conclusions are as follows:(1) SGS is mainly delayed as a whole. Areas delayed are more than the advanced in EGS, and EGS is a little delayed as a whole. LGS is generally shortened.(2) With the altitude rising, SGS is delayed, EGS is advanced, and LGS is shortened and phenophase appears a big variation below 3000 m and above 5000 m.(3) From 2000 to 2015, the temperature appears a slight increase along with a big fluctuation, and the precipitation increases evidently.(4) Response of phenophase to precipitation is not obvious in the low elevation humid regions, where SGS arrives early and EGS delays; while, in the upper part of the mountain regions, SGS delays and EGS advances with temperature rising, SGS arrives early and EGS delays with precipitation increasing.  相似文献   

8.
With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data(1981–2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier(0.1 d·10a-1θ1.7 d·10a-1, θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period(VPL)(from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a-1, while the length of generative period(GPL)(from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a-1. The growing season length(GSL)(from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days(GDD)(p0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.  相似文献   

9.
Daily average temperature data from 48 meteorological stations in Chinese oases that are within the distribution area of Populus euphratica were analyzed to determine the spatiotemporal responses of this tree to climate change. Specifically, the start and end date as well as the number of days that comprised the growing season were analyzed with a multi-year trend line and using the Mann-Kendall mutation test, inverse distance weighted interpolation(IDW) in the software Arc GIS, a Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. The results of this study show that, over the last 56 years, the start date of the P. euphratica growing season has advanced, while the end date has been postponed, and the number of days that comprise the growing season have gradually increased. The changing trend rates recovered in this analysis for these three time slices are –1.34 d/10 a, 1.33 d/10 a, and 2.66 d/10 a(α≥ 0.001), respectively. Data show that while spatial disparity is extremely significant, it is nevertheless the case that along a southwest-to-northeast transect of Chinese oases, the later the start date of the P. euphratica season, the sooner the end data and the shorter the growing season. Mutations points in start and end date, as well as for the growing season overall were observed in 2001, 1989, and 1996, respectively, and the data presented in this paper show that, in particular, the date of this end of this period is most sensitive to climate warming. Growing season cycles for P. euphratica are between 3.56 years and 7.14 years, consistent with the periodicity of El Ni?o events, while a start date cycle between 3.56 years and 4.28 years is consistent with atmospheric circulation cyclicity. The causal analysis presented in this paper shows that the Asian polar vortex area index(APVAI), the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau index(TPI), the westerly circulation index(WCI), and carbon dioxide emissions(CDE) are the main factors influencing spatiotemporal changes in the growth of P. euphratica, the effect of latitude during the growing season is more significant than altitude, and the start date of the growing season is more significantly influenced by these factors than end date. In addition, data show that the start date, end date, and length of the growing season are all significantly correlated with their average corresponding monthly temperature(corre-lation coefficients are –0.875, 0.770, and 0.897; α≥0.001). Thus, if the average temperature in March increases by 1℃, the start date of the growing season will advance by 2.21 days, while if the average temperature in October increases by the same margin then the seasonal end date will be delayed by 2.76 days. Similarly, if the average temperature between March and October increases by 1℃, the growing season will be extended by 7.78 days. The results of this study corroborate the fact that changes in the P. euphratica growing are sensitive to regional warming and are thus of considerable theoretical significance to our understanding of the responses of Chinese vegetation to climate change as well as to ecological restoration.  相似文献   

10.
Phenological modeling is not only important for the projection of future changes of certain phenophases but also crucial for systematically studying the spatiotemporal patterns of plant phenology. Based on ground phenological observations, we used two existing temperature-based models and 12 modified models with consideration of precipitation or soil moisture to simulate the bud-burst date(BBD) of four common herbaceous plants—Xanthium sibiricum, Plantago asiatica, Iris lactea and Taraxacum mongolicum—in temperate grasslands in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that(1) increase in temperature promoted the BBD of all species. However, effects of precipitation and soil moisture on BBD varied among species.(2) The modified models predicted the BBD of herbaceous plants with R~2 ranging from 0.17 to 0.41 and RMSE ranging from 9.03 to 11.97 days, better than classical thermal models.(3) The spatiotemporal pattern of BBD during 1980–2015 showed that species with later BBD, e.g. X. sibiricum(mean: day of year 135.30) exhibited an evidently larger spatial difference in BBD(standard deviation: 13.88 days) than the other species. Our findings suggest that influences of temperature and water conditions need to be considered simultaneously in predicting the phenological response of herbaceous plants to climate change.  相似文献   

11.
过去150 年长三角地区的春季物候变化   总被引:6,自引:1,他引:5  
利用中国历史日记中的长三角地区春季物候记录,重建了该地区1834 年以来的春季物候期变化序列,同时结合气温观测资料分析了该序列对温度变化的指示意义。主要结论有:(1) 1834-1893 年,长三角地区春季物候在波动中逐渐推迟,但19 世纪末起突然出现大幅提前;1900-1990 年以年代际波动为主要特征,1990-2010 年又再次出现大幅提前;1834 年以来,该地区春季物候最迟的年份为1893 年,最早的年份为2007 年,分别较1977-1996 年平均推迟27 天和提早17 天。(2) 长三角地区的春季物候期变化与该地区上年12 月-当年3 月及当年1-3 月气温变化的相关系数分别超过-0.75、-0.80,可很好地指示该地区的冬季与初春(特别是1-3 月) 气温变化;这为进一步集成多种代用资料重建历史时期的中国温度变化提供了重要数据基础和依据。  相似文献   

12.
利用中国物候观测网观测数据,新编制了哈尔滨地区1985-2012年的自然历。通过与原自然历(1963-1984年)比较,揭示了近30年以来哈尔滨地区21个植物99个物候期的变化特征,并通过物候期与气温的相关分析探讨了物候变化原因。结果表明:自1985年以来,哈尔滨的春季、夏季、秋季的物候期开始日期提前,冬季开始日期推迟。其中春季(以白榆叶芽膨大期为代表)、夏季(以暴马丁香开花始期为代表)、秋季(以金银忍冬果实成熟期为代表)分别提前了7天、6天和19天,冬季(以胡桃楸落叶末期为代表)推迟了2天。各物候期在春季、夏季、秋季的平均日期相较于原自然历提前了3~11天,在冬季推迟了3天。四季各物候期最早日期均以提前为主,夏冬季物候期最晚日期有所推迟。另外,各季节内部分物候期出现的先后次序发生了变化。近30年该地区气温的升高是物候季节开始日期提前的首要原因。且不同植物和物候期对气温变化的响应敏感性不同可解释物候季节内物候期先后次序的变化。  相似文献   

13.
伏牛山地森林植被物候及其对气候变化的响应   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
研究植被物候是理解植被与气候关系的重要途径。在植被对气候变化响应的敏感地区,开展植被物候研究有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响机制。基于2000-2015年MODIS EVI时间序列影像数据,利用Savitzky-Golay (S-G)滤波方法和动态阈值法提取伏牛山地2000-2015年森林植被物候参数,结合气温、降水数据,运用Man-Kendall趋势检验、Sen斜率、ANUSPLIN插值和相关性分析等方法,研究伏牛山地森林植被物候对气候要素(气温、降水)变化的响应。结果表明:① 伏牛山地森林植被生长季始期主要集中在第105~120 d,生长季末期主要集中在第285~315 d,生长季长度主要集中在165~195 d。从海拔梯度看,随海拔升高,生长季始期、末期和长度整体上分别呈显著推迟、提前及缩短趋势。② 生长季始期和生长季末期整体上呈推迟趋势,推迟的像元分别占森林植被的76.57%和83.81%。生长季长度整体呈延长趋势,延长的像元占比为61.21%。生长季始期变化特征主要是由该地区的春季气温降低所导致的。③ 研究区森林植被生长季始期与3月平均气温呈显著偏相关,且呈负相关的区域最多,即3月平均气温降低,导致生长季始期推迟;生长季末期与9月降水呈显著偏相关区域最多,且两者主要呈正相关,即9月降水增加,使生长季末期推迟。植被生长季长度由整个生长期的气温和降水来共同作用,对大多数的区域而言,8月的平均气温和降水与生长季长度的关系最为密切。  相似文献   

14.
Spatio-temporal changes in the differentiation characteristics of eight consecutive phenological periods and their corresponding lengths were quantitatively analyzed based on long-term phenological observation data from 114 agro-meteorological stations in four maize growing zones in China. Results showed that average air temperature and growing degree-days (GDD) during maize growing seasons showed an increasing trend from 1981 to 2010, while precipitation and sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend. Maize phenology has significantly changed under climate change: spring maize phenology was mainly advanced, especially in northwest and southwest maize zones, while summer and spring-summer maize phenology was delayed. The delay trend observed for summer maize in the northwest maize zone was more pronounced than in the Huang-Huai spring-summer maize zone. Variations in maize phenology changed the corresponding growth stages length: the vegetative growth period (days from sowing date to tasseling date) was generally shortened in spring, summer, and spring-summer maize, although to different degrees, while the reproductive growth period (days from tasseling date to mature date) showed an extension trend. The entire growth period(days from sowing date to mature date) of spring maize was extended, but the entire growth periods of summer and spring-summer maize were shortened.  相似文献   

15.
气候变化背景下1981-2010年中国玉米物候变化时空分异   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
秦雅  刘玉洁  葛全胜 《地理学报》2018,73(5):906-916
基于中国玉米种植区内114个农气站1981-2010年的长序列物候观测数据,量化分析了玉米8个连续物候期的时空分异特征和相应的生长阶段长度变化规律。结果表明:1981-2010年间,玉米生育期内平均温度和有效积温(GDD)呈现增加趋势,降水量和日照时数呈现减少趋势。气候变化背景下,玉米物候期发生了显著变化。春玉米物候期以提前趋势为主,包括西北内陆玉米区春玉米、西南山地丘陵玉米区春玉米;夏玉米和春夏播玉米各物候期在不同区域均呈现推迟的趋势,西北内陆玉米区夏玉米各物候期推迟的幅度大于黄淮平原夏玉米各物候期推迟的幅度。玉米物候期的变化改变了相应生长阶段的长度,中国春/夏/春夏播玉米营养生长期(播种期—抽雄期)呈现不同程度的缩短趋势,而对应的生殖生长期(抽雄期—成熟期)呈现不同程度的延长趋势;春玉米生育期(播种期—成熟期)延长,夏/春夏播玉米生育期缩短。  相似文献   

16.
玉溪2011年3月强倒春寒天气环流特征分析   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
2011年3月15日~18日,云南省玉溪市出现一次强倒春寒天气过程,平均气温除元江外,其余县仅有6.2~8.8℃;48小时最高气温下降17~23℃,通海16日最低气温只有1.8℃。分析1971~2010年历史上3月倒春寒发生前的1月大气物理特征量发现,此次倒春寒的原因主要是由于1月极涡面积偏大,3月强度迅速发展偏强,对应极圈西南侧为120~80gpm的负距平,有利于冷空气形成;经向环流南北交换大,南支槽和东亚槽比常年偏强,有利于暖湿气流的输送,青藏高压比常年偏弱,有利于冷空气南下,造成自北向南出现较大的降温幅度,其中云南东部等地降温幅度超过12℃。  相似文献   

17.
1982~1999 年我国东部暖温带植被 生长季节的时空变化   总被引:23,自引:1,他引:22  
陈效逑  喻蓉 《地理学报》2007,62(1):41-51
利用1982~1996 年5 个站点的植物群落物候观测数据和物候累积频率拟合法, 划分各站逐年的植被物候季节, 并确定各季节初日对应的当地归一化差值植被指数(NDVI) 阈值。 在此基础上, 通过对物候站各年NDVI 曲线的年型聚类分析和区内所有像元逐年NDVI 曲线的空间聚类分析, 实现植被物候季节的时空外推估计, 从而得到我国暖温带落叶阔叶林地区1982~1999 年植被物候季节初日和生长季节长度的时空格局。结果表明, 多年平均的植被物 候季节初日和生长季节长度呈现出主要随纬度和海拔高度变化的空间格局。在这18 年中, 整 个区域的物候春季初日以提前为主, 且以华北平原提前的趋势最为显著;夏季、秋季和冬季 初日以推迟为主, 也以华北平原推迟的趋势比较显著;因此, 华北平原植被生长季节呈显著 延长的趋势。本文揭示的植被物候季节初日的趋势变化与华北地区各季节气温的趋势变化基本吻合;植被生长季节的趋势变化特征与欧洲单种植物物候生长季节, 以及欧亚大陆和我国温带遥感植被生长季节的趋势变化基本一致, 但植被生长季节初、终日期和长度的趋势值明显大于后者, 表明该地区植物物候对于气候变暖的响应更加敏感。  相似文献   

18.
厘清驱动植物物候变化的气候因子对评估全球变化对生态系统的影响具有重要意义。针对欧洲与北美地区木本植物的控制实验表明春季物候变化主要受冷激、驱动温度和光周期影响,但这3个气候因子是否对东亚地区木本植物的春季物候存在相似的作用仍需验证。论文选取了5种典型木本植物(迎春Jasminum nudiflorum、连翘Forsythia suspensa、荚蒾Viburnum dilatatum、玉兰Yulania denudata与东京樱花Cerasus yedoensis),利用生长箱对冬季休眠枝条的展叶过程开展了控制实验。实验设置了3种驱动温度(12 ℃、15 ℃、18 ℃)、3种冷激(3 d、38 d、59 d)以及2种光周期(10 h、14 h)处理,并利用分层贝叶斯模型建立了展叶始期与各影响因子间的关系。结果表明,驱动温度每升高1 ℃导致展叶始期提前2.6 ~ 9.0 d,但展叶始期的温度敏感度随温度和冷激天数的增加而减弱。冷激也是影响木本植物展叶始期的重要因子。与冷激处理3 d相比,冷激处理59 d使展叶始期提前20.3 ~ 66.6 d,但随冷激天数增加,展叶始期对冷激响应的敏感度减弱。光周期延长对展叶始期具有提前效应,但总体小于驱动温度与冷激的影响。光周期由10 h延长至14 h后,展叶始期提前0.3 ~ 12.9 d,且在低冷激处理时光周期的效应更明显。这些结果为理解近几十年来春季物候变化及其对增温的响应提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

19.
基于清代雨雪档案和现代气象观测资料,利用自然降水入渗试验结果及雨雪分寸与降水量统计关系,重建南京1736~2006年逐季和年降水量。分析显示:(1) 18世纪春、冬季为多雨期,秋季为少雨期;19世纪秋、冬季和全年为多雨期,春季为少雨期;20世纪上半叶,4季和全年均为少雨期;自20世纪末期始夏季和全年进入多雨期。(2) 年降水变化存在2~5 a周期,经历1851~1860年和1893~1894年两次突变。研究结果与区域内其他旱涝等级或降水量序列有较好可比性。绝大多数粮食欠收年对应于降水异常年,生长期为干旱异常的欠收年数量多于为洪涝异常的欠收年。  相似文献   

20.
川渝地区气候与物候的变化特征分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
利用川渝地区44个气象台站的气象资料和2个物候观测站的物候资料分析了该地区的气候与物候变化特征:最近10 a年均温度比前30多a高0.68℃,年均降水量基本无变化。低温主要分布在川西高原,低温天数、低温积温绝对值都在减少。日均最高温度在高原南部、西南山地减少,其它地区都增加;日均最低温度都在增暖。降水在四川盆地下降,在重庆西部、川西高原增加。降水日数在高原西部增加,其它地区都下降。春始期仁寿略微推迟,北碚微弱提前;秋始期都推迟。展叶期的杏树、刺槐、水杉、紫荆、梧桐推迟,紫藤、毛桃提前。落叶期仁寿刺槐提前,北碚的植物全部推迟。  相似文献   

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